Of course, a number of factors could derail this projection. There could end up being fewer vacancies to fill going forward than there were to date. The rate of appointments could slow if major UN budget cuts materialize. Or the Secretary-General could simply slow his pace of appointing women, reverting to the modus operandi of Ban Ki-moon and other predecessors.
Barring these possibilities, however, an optimistic projection would expect to see Guterres achieve gender balance among senior officials by winter 2019 at the latest.
When it comes to female senior officials in the field (i.e. in missions led by the UN Department of Political Affairs, Department of Peacekeeping Operations, and Department of Field Support), the projected time until parity with their male counterparts is also October 2019, a trend which has been aided by the winding down of several predominantly male-led peacekeeping missions.
There are also considerations such as the size of departmental budgets being overseen by men vs. women, as well as the number of people under their management, which we will explore in subsequent posts.