The recent wave of violent protests and unrest across the developed world – the storming of the US Capitol during the electoral college process and the riots in the Netherlands, among others – questions the assumption that high-income countries have become immune to large-scale internal political violence. Are we facing a new wave of high-income conflict?

This paper highlights the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic is exacerbating the humanitarian and economic devastation wrought by prolonged conflict in the Arab region. It also provides an overview of recent and forecasted conflict trends in seven countries, which show that conflict dynamics remain largely unchanged, or in some cases worsened, since the outbreak of the virus.