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Preventing Armed Violence
An Evidence-Based Tool for Smarter Policy & Action (Prototype)
Understanding the Underlying Causes of Violence
The NYU Center on International Cooperation has launched a new tool to support policymakers and practitioners to identify the underlying causes of violence, and design more effective prevention efforts. This tool is currently a prototype that explores why violence occurs, and why it does not.
Created specifically to support policy discussion, as well as for practitioners in the field, the tool can be used to better understand risk and protective factors for intra-state conflict and violent extremism/terrorism.
- A risk factor is a variable that precedes armed violence and increases the likelihood of its occurrence.
- A protective factor is a variable that precedes armed violence and decreases the likelihood of its occurrence.
Explore the risk and protective factors by using the table below, or view them as data visualizations here.
More information about our research found here.
| Factor | Factor Type | Domain | Types of Armed Violence | Supported by Evidence? | Title | Explanation | Indicator | Strength of Association | Onset / Recruitment / Spillover | Factor Level | Factor Interactions | Age | Gender | Geographic Focus | Type of Armed Violence (Specific) | Definition of Type of Armed Violence | Source | Type of Source | Year | Overall Review / Specific Article(s) | Studies Used | Balance of Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Religious groups are excluded from political power or downgraded from an earlier higher status | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Loss/gain of) power, Group identity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict | This article reviews factors influencing the onset and dynamics of civil war and extremist intrastate conflict. The authors do not define these conflict types but refer to these terms interchangeably. | Svensson, Isak. “Civil War and Religion: An Overview.” In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.650 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review which examines the extent to which religious factors can explain the onset civil wars. The emphasis is primarily on the large-N quantitative research in this field, but examples of how religious dynamics play out in particular civil wars are mentioned as well. | One article is referenced in support: Bormann, Nils-Christian, Lars-Erik Cederman, and Manuel Vogt. "Language, religion, and ethnic civil war." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 4 (2017): 744-771. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715600755 |
| Religious discrimination | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Discrimination | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict | This article reviews factors influencing the onset and dynamics of civil war and extremist intrastate conflict. The authors do not define these conflict types but refer to these terms interchangeably. | Svensson, Isak. “Civil War and Religion: An Overview.” In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.650 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review which examines the extent to which religious factors can explain the onset civil wars. The emphasis is primarily on the large-N quantitative research in this field, but examples of how religious dynamics play out in particular civil wars are mentioned as well. | One study is cited in support: Akbaba, Yasemin, and Zeynep Taydas. "Does religious discrimination promote dissent? A quantitative analysis." Ethnopolitics 10, no. 3-4 (2011): 271-295. https://doi.org/10.1080/17449057.2011.561988 |
| Involvement in conflict by an ethnic group in one country increases the likelihood of conflict erupting in a nearby country that shares the same ethnic group (transnational ties) | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence, Demographic, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ethnic diversity, (In)directly experienced violence/safety, Group identity | Shared groups across countries are likely to be inspired to increase their own demands. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | Nine articles are referenced in support of this effect: Ayres, R. William, and Stephen Saideman. "Is separatism as contagious as the common cold or as cancer? Testing international and domestic explanations." Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 6, no. 3 (2000): 91-113. https://doi.org/10.1080/13537110008428605 Saideman, Stephen M., and R. William Ayres. "Determining the causes of irredentism: Logit analyses of minorities at risk data from the 1980s and 1990s." The Journal of Politics 62, no. 4 (2000): 1126-1144. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-3816.00049 Salehyan, Idean, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Refugees and the spread of civil war." International organization 60, no. 2 (2006): 335-366. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818306060103 Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Transnational Dimensions of Civil War." Journal of Peace Research 44, no. 3 (2007): 293–309. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343307076637 Buhaug, Halvard, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space." International Studies Quarterly 52, no. 2 (2008): 215–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2008.00499.x Forsberg, Erika. "Polarization and Ethnic Conflict in a Widened Strategic Setting." Journal of Peace Research 45, no. 2 (2008): 283–300. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343307087185 Forsberg, Erika. "Do Ethnic Dominoes Fall? Evaluating Domino Effects of Granting Territorial Concessions to Separatist Groups." International Studies Quarterly 57, no. 2 (2013): 329–40. https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12006 Forsberg, Erika. "Polarization and Ethnic Conflict in a Widened Strategic Setting." Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 233–246. https://doi.org/10.1177/002234330708718 Cederman, Lars-Erik, Luc Girardin, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." Journal of Peace Research 46, no. 1 (2009): 3–23. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| Countries that are ethnically polarized, in the sense that there are a few roughly equally strong contenders (characteristic of a country that is a potential target of diffusion) | Static risk factor | Demographic, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ethnic diversity, Polarization | Ethnically polarized societies supposedly form a delicate balance in which the input of a potentially inspirational conflict next-door may create the momentum required for a group to challenge its own state with rebellion. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One article is referenced in support of this effect: Forsberg, Erika. "Polarization and Ethnic Conflict in a Widened Strategic Setting." Journal of Peace Research 45, no. 2 (2008): 283–300. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343307087185 |
| Social cleavages between groups in terms of language differences and religious dissimilarities only | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Group identity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict | This article reviews factors influencing the onset and dynamics of civil war and extremist intrastate conflict. The authors do not define these conflict types but refer to these terms interchangeably. | Svensson, Isak. “Civil War and Religion: An Overview.” In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.650 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review which examines the extent to which religious factors can explain the onset civil wars. The emphasis is primarily on the large-N quantitative research in this field, but examples of how religious dynamics play out in particular civil wars are mentioned as well. | One article is cited, which finds that cleavages around religious dissimliarities and language differences has no effect on ethnic civil war risk: Bormann, Nils-Christian, Lars-Erik Cederman, and Manuel Vogt. "Language, religion, and ethnic civil war." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 4 (2017): 744-771. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715600755 |
| Secondary diamond production - secondary diamonds are found near the surface and are commonly mined by small teams of unskilled workers | Static risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resources extraction/production | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global sample in 1945–99 and 1946–2002 | Ethnic conflict | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | One article is cited in support, finding secondary diamond production tends to promote the outbreak of ethnic civil war especially after the end of the Cold War. Lujala, Päivi, Nils Petter Gleditsch, and Elisabeth Gilmore. "A Diamond Curse? Civil War and a Lootable Resource." Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, no. 4 (2005): 538–562. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002705277548 |
| Higher percentage of mountainous terrain compared to average (using a global sample over many years) | Static risk factor | (Situational) Location | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Rough terrain | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Fearon & Laitin (2003a) Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| Political instability | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Moments, (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Strength rule of law/institutions | Unspecified | Political instability, measured through Polity IV regime index, indicating whether the country had a three-or greater change on the Polity IV regime index in any of the three years prior to the country-year in question. | Not a significant predictor of ethnic conflict | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Fearon & Laitin (2003a) Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| Having already had a conflict ongoing in the last year | Dynamic protective factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict, Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Fearon & Laitin (2003a) Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| Ethnic conflict in a state’s major communication partner (international links as measured by international phone calls between countries) | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events, Social influence | Considering a range of such studies, Weidmann (2015) identifies three ways in which information can lead to the spread of conflict. First, information about a neighboring conflict can make ethnic divisions more salient among a local population, as well as lead to increased claims made on the basis of ethnicity. In non-ethnic conflicts, it seems plausible that other identity divisions may also become more salient after neighboring conflict brings previously irrelevant or dormant grievances to the surface. Second, observation of a nearby conflict can provide tactical information to potential rebels within the neighbor state. Third, observation of a successful actor with which a group identifies in some way in the civil war state can lead a domestic actor to update beliefs about the likelihood of success and adjust demands accordingly. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict, Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil war spillover, where civil wars are defined as conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. While different definitions and criteria can lead to the inclusion or exclusion of particular events in different studies, this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations. The overview of scholarship in this area thus includes studies that apply different definitions of “civil war.” The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references one article. Weidman looks specifically at international telephone traffic and finds that ethnic conflict in a state’s major communication partner increases the risk of domestic ethnic unrest even for distant states (Weidmann, 2015): Weidmann, N. B. "Communication Networks and the Transnational Spread of Ethnic Conflict." Journal of Peace Research 52, no. 3 (2015): 285–296. https://d-nb.info/1113109742/34 |
| Being an anocracy | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Anocracy | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Fearon & Laitin (2003a) Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| Being a noncontiguous country | Static risk factor | (Situational) Location | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Distance/proximity | Unspecified | Contiguity, defined as a country that holds at least 10,000 people and is separated from the land area containing the capital city either by land or by 100 km of water. | Not a statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict, Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Fearon & Laitin (2003a) Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| Elites manipulation | Static risk factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Elites manipulation | Ethnic elites shape identities by (a) taking advantage of informational asymmetries to create fear and (b) mobilizing resources. By contrast, nonelite members of these groups are assumed to be nonstrategic and easily manipulated by their leaders. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict, Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified. The review mostly focuses on how the process of identifying with any social group (class, party, gender, ethnicity, religion, etc.) could affect behavior, including violent behaviour. | Kalin, Michael, and Nicholas Sambanis. “How to Think About Social Identity.” Annual review of political science 21, no. 1 (2018): 239–257. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-042016-024408 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This review synthesizes recent scholarship that incorporates a social identity perspective on political behavior, from voting and redistribution to violence and conflict. | One article is cited in support of this risk factor: Weingast, Barry, and Rui De Figueiredo. "Rationality of fear: Political opportunism and ethnic conflict." In Military Intervention in Civil Wars, ed. J Snyder, B Walter, pp. 261–302. New York: Columbia Univ. Press |
| Ethnic fractionalization | Dynamic risk factor | Demographic, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Ethnic diversity, Group identity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict, Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Fearon & Laitin (2003a) Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| Being a democracy | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Democracy | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict, Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Fearon & Laitin (2003a) Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| A more exclusionary power configuration — i.e., where large segments of the population remain detached from the web of political alliances centered on the national-level government | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Exclusion/inclusion | These authors explain this factor within a power-cum-legitimacy theoretical framework developed earlier (Wimmer 2002). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict, Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | One article is cited in support: Wimmer, Andreas, Lars-Erik Cederman, and Brian Min. "Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A Configurational Analysis of a New Global Dataset." American Sociological Review 74, no. 2 (2009): 316–37. https://doi.org/10.1177/000312240907400208 |
| Groups excluded from social and political power begin to experience economic modernization (economic growth, globalization, urbanization ) | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Globalization | The creation of the nation state makes upward social mobility possible, but also intensifies intergroup competition for scarce resources. As groups that were excluded experience this modernization it raises community expectations, access to information, etc. which causes grievances. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict, Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified. The review mostly focuses on how the process of identifying with any social group (class, party, gender, ethnicity, religion, etc.) could affect behavior, including violent behaviour. | Kalin, Michael, and Nicholas Sambanis. “How to Think About Social Identity.” Annual review of political science 21, no. 1 (2018): 239–257. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-042016-024408 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This review synthesizes recent scholarship that incorporates a social identity perspective on political behavior, from voting and redistribution to violence and conflict. | Two articles are cited in support of this risk factor: Cederman, Lars-Erik, Andreas Wimmer, and Brian Min. "Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis." World Politics 62, no. 1 (2010): 87–119. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887109990219 Wimmer, Andreas, Lars-Erik Cederman, and Brian Min. "Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A Configurational Analysis of a New Global Dataset." American Sociological Review 74, no. 2 (2009): 316–37. https://doi.org/10.1177/000312240907400208 |
| Religious fractionalization | Dynamic risk factor | Demographic, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Group identity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict, Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Fearon & Laitin (2003a) Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| A state existing for two years or less | Static risk factor | (Political) Moments | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Lifespan of the State | Unspecified | How long a state has existed measured in years. | Statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict, Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Fearon & Laitin (2003a) Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| Higher population compared to other country-years compared to average (using a global sample over many years) | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Population density/size/growth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict, Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Fearon & Laitin (2003a) Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| Higher per capita income compared to average (using a global sample over many years) | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis. Fearon and Laitin conclude; Per capita income ... is strongly significant in both a statistical and a substantive sense: $1,000 less in per capita income is associated with 41% greater annual odds of civil war onset, on average ... . The income variable is not just a proxy for “the West,” whose states might have low rates of civil war for reasons of culture or history that have little to do with income. The estimated coefficient...remains strongly significant. | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict, Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Fearon & Laitin (2003a) Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| A country being an oil exporter | Static risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resources export | Unspecified | Fuel exports exceed one-third of export revenues. | Statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict, Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Fearon & Laitin (2003a) Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| One or more ethnic groups are systematically excluded from political power | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Exclusion/inclusion | The effect of exclusion on the risk of violent conflict can operate through several mechanisms, one of which is heightening the perceived distance between excluded groups and the rest of the nation. Another possible mechanism is that minority groups are motivated by a desire to capture power and other material benefits. Violence might also be due to the psychological distance that separates excluded groups from the nation and the concomitant desire for greater self-esteem that might come from enhancing the group's power and status. | Unspecified | Examples include the Kurds in Turkey, who have always been excluded; the Sunni Arabs in contemporary Iraq, who faced a status reversal after the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003; and the Bosnian Muslims, who feared being subordinated to a Serb-controlled state after the collapse of Communism and the dissolution of Yugoslavia. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict, Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified. The review mostly focuses on how the process of identifying with any social group (class, party, gender, ethnicity, religion, etc.) could affect behavior, including violent behaviour. | Kalin, Michael, and Nicholas Sambanis. “How to Think About Social Identity.” Annual review of political science 21, no. 1 (2018): 239–257. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-042016-024408 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This review synthesizes recent scholarship that incorporates a social identity perspective on political behavior, from voting and redistribution to violence and conflict. | Two articles are cited in support of this risk factor: Cederman, Lars-Erik, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and Halvard Buhaug. 2013. Inequality, Grievances, and Civil War. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/inequality-grievances-and-civil-war/39F26D12EFEE2D7D621A59DF74DED496 Wimmer, Andreas, Lars-Erik Cederman, and Brian Min. 2009. "Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A Configurational Analysis of a New Global Data Set." American Sociological Review 74: 316–37. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/000312240907400208 |
| Ongoing civil wars in neighbouring countries | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events | Unspecified | Unspecified | The seminal contribution by Buhaug and Gleditsch (2008) demonstrates that civil wars are partly determined by neighborhood conflict even when taking into account the spatial clustering of the relevant country characteristics, which suggests that civil conflict sometimes spreads from one country to another. | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | Several studies demonstrate that having one or several neighboring states with ongoing civil war is an important predictor of civil war in a given country (for instance, Sambanis 2001; Ward and Gleditsch 2002; Hegre and Sambanis 2006; Salehyan and Gleditsch 2006; Gleditsch 2007; Buhaug and Gleditsch 2008) Sambanis, Nicholas. "Do Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes? A Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry (Part 1)." Journal of Conflict Resolution 45, no. 3 (2001): 259–82. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002701045003001 Ward, Michael D., and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Location, Location, Location: An MCMC Approach to Modeling the Spatial Context of War and Peace." Political Analysis 10, no. 3 (2002): 244–60. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/10.3.244 Hegre, Håvard, and Nicholas Sambanis. "Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset." Journal of Conflict Resolution 50, no. 4 (2006): 508–35. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002706289303 Salehyan, Idean, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Refugees and the Spread of Civil War." International Organization 60, no. 2 (2006): 335–66. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818306060103 Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Transnational Dimensions of Civil War." Journal of Peace Research 44, no. 3 (2007): 293–309. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343307076637 Buhaug, Halvard, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space." International Studies Quarterly 52, no. 2 (2008): 215–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2008.00499.x |
| More intense conflicts, in terms of fatalities (characteristic of civil war in one country that makes it more likely to spread to another) | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | (Absence of) conflict events | Buhaug and Gleditsch (2008) suggest that more intense conflicts, in terms of fatalities, make diffusion more likely because they produce more externalities which affect other countries. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One article is referenced, showing empirical support for this effect when comparing the two types of conflict - the first source listed. However, empirical analysis does not support this claim. Buhaug, Halvard, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space." International Studies Quarterly 52, no. 2 (2008): 215–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2008.00499.x Forsberg, Erika. "Polarization and Ethnic Conflict in a Widened Strategic Setting." Journal of Peace Research 45, no. 2 (2008): 283–300. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343307087185 Forsberg, Erika. "Do Ethnic Dominoes Fall? Evaluating Domino Effects of Granting Territorial Concessions to Separatist Groups." International Studies Quarterly 57, no. 2 (2013): 329–40. https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12006 |
| Conflict in another country | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events | Conflict in one country provides lessons, inspiration, and clues for actors in other countries in the form of strategic learning | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | Two books and one article are referenced suggesting this effect, but the author notes the need for additional study: Hill, Stuart, Donald Rothchild, and Colin Cameron. "Tactical Information and the Diffusion of Peaceful Protests." In The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation, edited by David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild, 199–218. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998. Elkins, Zachary, and Beth Simmons. "On Waves, Clusters, and Diffusion: A Conceptual Framework." ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 598, no. 1 (2005): 33–51. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716204272516 Bakke, Kristin M. "Copying and Learning from Outsiders? Assessing Diffusion from Transnational Insurgents in the Chechen Wars." In Transnational Dynamics of Civil War, edited by Jeffrey T. Checkel. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013. |
| Conflict in another country | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events | Conflict in one country causes groups in other locations to perceive an increased likelihood of success | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One book is referenced suggesting this effect, but the author notes the need for additional study: Lake, David A., and Donald Rothchild. "Spreading Fear: The Genesis of Transnational Ethnic Conflict." In The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation, edited by David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild, 3–30. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998. |
| An ongoing civil war in a neighboring or even distant state (successfully prosecuted or not by rebels). | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events | Civil war spillover is thought to increase the risk of instability and conflict onset in other states by means of transmission, emulation, or both. Transmission risks arise largely from the tangible spillover that lowers the cost of armed opposition against the state, leads to miscommunication or misperception, or spurs unintended armed encounters. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | The risk is highest in open autocracies in conflict-prone neighborhoods | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil war spillover, where civil wars are defined as conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. While different definitions and criteria can lead to the inclusion or exclusion of particular events in different studies, this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations. The overview of scholarship in this area thus includes studies that apply different definitions of “civil war.” The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references one article: Maves, J., and A. Braithwaite. "Autocratic Institutions and Civil Conflict Contagion." The Journal of Politics 75, no. 2 (2013): 478–490. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1017/S0022381613000157 |
| Rebel side in a civil war is successful (characteristic of civil war in one country that makes conflict more likely to spread to another) | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events, (In)directly experienced violence/safety | The author notes that this is "supposedly due to more inspiration effects" - that is to say that a neighboring country having a successful civil war may inspire other countries to attempt the same | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One article and one book are referenced showing support for this effect: Hill, Stuart, and Donald Rothchild. "The Contagion of Political Conflict in Africa and the World." Journal of Conflict Resolution 30, no. 4 (1986): 716–35. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002786030004006 Hill, Stuart, Donald Rothchild, and Colin Cameron. "Tactical Information and the Diffusion of Peaceful Protests." In The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation, edited by David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild, 199–218. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998. |
| Conflict-related weapons flows | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | (Absence of) conflict events, Arms (un)availability | When border control is insufficient, weapons used in one conflict may be transferred to neighboring states were aggrieved groups may be willing to initiate violent conflict as soon as they have the ability to do so. The inflow of weapons at knockdown rates may provide them with such capacity. Though, data scarcity has so far made it difficult to test this explanation | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Weak border control | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One article is referenced for a similar effect (refugee flows), but the review article notes that data availability makes this factor challenging to test. Salehyan, Idean, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Refugees and the Spread of Civil War." International Organization 60, no. 2 (2006): 335–66. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818306060103 |
| Conflict related refugee flows | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence, Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events, Demographic changes (incl. Migration/Forced diplacement) | Refugee flows may contribute to the spread of civil conflict by upsetting the demographic balance in the host state or by exacerbating competition over scarce resources. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One article is referenced in support of this effect: Salehyan, Idean, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Refugees and the Spread of Civil War." International Organization 60, no. 2 (2006): 335–66. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818306060103 |
| Civil war in one country leading to a reduction in trade and investment in proximate countries | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes, (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events, Increase/decrease in trade | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Such spillover processes are linked to, for example, movement of arms and rebels or economic decline | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | Two articles are referenced suggesting this effect, but the author notes the need for additional study: Murdoch, James C., and Todd Sandler. "Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers." Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, no. 1 (2002): 91–110. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002702046001006 Murdoch, James C., and Todd Sandler. "Civil Wars and Economic Growth: Spatial Dispersion." American Journal of Political Science 48, no. 1 (2004): 138–51. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00061.x |
| A regime loses an international war (especially one that it instigated) and is unable to respond to subsequent domestic crises. | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence, (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events, Strength rule of law/institutions | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Skocpol; France, Russia, and China Mesquita; undefined | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | One book is cited in support: Skocpol, Theda. States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1979. In addition, quantitative work by political scientists Bueno de Mesquita et al. (1992) has shown, quite in line with Skopcol’s original argument, that lost wars (especially by the instigator) increase the risk of violent regime change quite substantially, possibly for democratic regimes as much as autocratic ones. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, James M. Siverson, and George Woller. "War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis." American Political Science Review 86, no. 3 (1992): 638–46. https://doi.org/10.2307/1964127 |
| Living in areas controlled by the government during a civil war | Static protective factor | (Security) Violence, (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events, Strength rule of law/institutions | The localities were people live during wars have a central impact on their options and incentives to join (Kalyvas 2009; Wood 2003). Interviewees who were less exposed to violence and lived in areas controlled by the government had fewer incentives and faced higher obstacles to participation. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Community | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | Empirical findings of the article and two references articles: Kalyvas, Stathis N. "Civil Wars." In Oxford Handbook of Comparative Politics, edited by Carles Boix and Susan C. Stokes, Vol. 1. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199566020.003.0018. Wood, Elisabeth Jean. Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808685. |
| Negative situation with family at home, such as verbal and physical abuse, as well as a general unsupportive family dynamic and feeling unhappy or unwelcome. | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Dys)functional family dynamics | Negative situations at home likely motivate children to seek out alternatives. As a 17-year-old girl in the DRC shared, "If they are pouring out abuse on you, you decide to go wandering." | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children, Youth | Male and female | Ouham-Pendé, CAR and North Kivu, DRC | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Findings of a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews. Several adolescent respondents reported that the negative situation with their family in their home. In contrast to those who had joined armed groups, none of the at-risk youth in both CAR or DRC who had not engaged with armed groups reported having negative relationships with their parents before or after the conflict. Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS Global Public Health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1482629/v1 |
| Family breakdown (including weak families, intra-familial tension, domestic violence and abuse, or living with extended family) | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Dys)functional family dynamics | Children are left unprotected and have no parental guidance. They therefore find this from armed groups. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Colombia, South Sudan. Iraq | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | The study states that weak families, intra-familial tension, domestic violence and abuse, being orphaned or living with extended family can all be factors increasing children’s vulnerability to becoming involved with armed groups. World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/it-takes-world/publication/no-choice-it-takes-world-end-use-child-soldiers |
| Family violence | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience, (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Dys)functional family dynamics, (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children, Youth | Female | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | One article is cited in support: O’Neil, Siobhan. "Trajectories of children into and out of non-state armed groups." Cradled by conflict: child involvement with armed groups in contemporary conflict. United Nations University (2018): 38-79. |
| Experiencing violence in the home | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience, (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Dys)functional family dynamics, (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | de Vise-Lewis: Democratic Republic of Congo | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | The study cites two reports in support of this risk factor: de Vise-Lewis, Emma, Stefano Schwarz, and Bavon Mupenda. Tug of War: Children and Armed Groups in DRC. War Child and Child Frontiers, 2018. https://www.warchild.net/documents/58/Tug-Of-War_Children_in_Armed_Groups_in_DRC.pdf O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Abuse or intrafamily violence | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience, (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Dys)functional family dynamics, (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Being a child head of a household | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience, Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Dys)functional family dynamics, Age | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | de Vise-Lewis: Democratic Republic of Congo | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | The study cites two reports in support of this risk factor: de Vise-Lewis, Emma, Stefano Schwarz, and Bavon Mupenda. Tug of War: Children and Armed Groups in DRC. War Child and Child Frontiers, 2018. https://www.warchild.net/documents/58/Tug-Of-War_Children_in_Armed_Groups_in_DRC.pdf O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Wanting to leave home to escape (sexual) abuse | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience, (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Dys)functional family dynamics, Psychological abuse, (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | One book is cited in support: Brett, Rachel, and Irma Specht. Young Soldiers. Why They Choose to Fight. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2004 |
| Childhood mired by conflict, loss, and/or displacement | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (In)directly experienced violence/safety | All respondents in this study described experiencing multiple traumatic conflict-related events, including attacks on their village, flight and displacement, kidnapping, killing of family members, and separation from their families. In CAR, these experiences informed their decision to join the armed groups, as the majority of both boys and girls described their desire to avenge family members and a personal affiliation with one of the militias as the primary motivating factor for engaging with a group. | Unspecified | All respondents in both countries described experiencing multiple traumatic conflict-related events, including attacks on their village, flight and displacement, kidnapping, killing of family members, and separation from their families. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | Male and female | Ouham-Pendé, CAR and North Kivu, DRC | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Findings of a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews. Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS Global Public Health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1482629/v1 |
| Children separated from parents/caregivers during conflict | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (In)directly experienced violence/safety | A few boys and girls interviewed in CAR were also separated from their families while fleeing attacks on their village and reported having no way to support themselves and nowhere to go other than to join the armed groups. Separated male and female adolescents in CAR described this support as filling a need they had after losing their parents in the conflict. One 20-year old boy from CAR said, “As I lost parents, my friends from the armed groups supported me when I was among them. When someone wants to provoke me, they often defend me. . . . When I miss a few things, they support me." | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children, Youth | Male and female | Ouham-Pendé, CAR and North Kivu, DRC | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Findings of a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews. A few boys and girls interviewed in CAR were also separated from their families while fleeing attacks on their village and reported having no way to support themselves and nowhere to go other than to join the armed groups Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS Global Public Health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1482629/v1 |
| Living in areas of the country less affected by war | Static protective factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Unspecified | Unspecified | Most non-participants in the El Salvadoran civil war she interviewed lived in areas less affected by the war (35). | Recruitment | Community | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | El Salvador | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | The literature review mentions one article: Viterna, Jocelyn. "Pulled, Pushed, and Persuaded: Explaining Women’s Mobilization into the Salvadoran Guerrilla Army." American Journal of Sociology 112, no. 1 (2006): 1–45. https://doi.org/10.1086/502690 |
| Proximity to armed groups | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Community | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | The literature review mentions two articles: Kalyvas, Stathis N. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511818462 Wood, Elisabeth Jean. Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808685 |
| Experiences and stories from war-affected neighbors | Dynamic protective factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Experiences and stories from Guinea's war-affected neighbors discouraged Guineans from associating with armed groups and participating in violence. | Unspecified | From the Bangura study: 91% of the 232 respondents between the age of 18 and 35 pointed to experiences and stories from war-affected neighbors as a major factor that discouraged them from associating with armed groups or participating in violence. | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Youth, Adults | No differentiation | Guinea | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article uses Gersovite and Kriger's (2013) definition of civil war and defines it as the following "a politically organized, large-scale, sustained, physically violent conflict that occurs within a country principally among large/numerically important groups of its inhabitants or citizens over the monopoly of physical force within the country. Civil wars usually have incumbent governments that control the state and have a monopoly of force before the civil war and challengers." | Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | The study employed an ethnographic approach with 232 semi-structured questionnaires administered to 129 male and 103 female respondents between the ages of 18 and 35 years. An additional 264 questionnaires were administered to 151 male and 113 female respondents between the ages of 36 and 60 years. Data were collected from August to November 2016 and from January to March 2018, when follow-up interviews were done with some of the respondents. Additionally, 31 government officials, 10 academics, 18 security and peacebuilding experts, and 59 civil society actors were either interviewed or participated in focus group discussions (FGDs) in all the locations studied. The actors engaged were selected based on their experience working for youth-related Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) of the Government of Guinea, experts in security and peacebuilding-related issues, or they worked for youth-focused civil society organisations, especially during the conflicts in the region. | Finding of the primary article Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 The overall findings of this study show that the influx of refugees from neighboring countries created fear and panic amongst Guinean youth. Their interactions with the refugees made them aware of the consequences of violence and may have played a role in discouraging them from associating with cross-border attackers. Many of the interviewees, both male and female, who visited or lived in communities with refugee camps vividly recounted how their mutual experiences framed their mindset on the effects of civil wars. |
| Fear of war and violence from prior experience | Static protective factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Experiences of the Portuguese invasion of Guinea in 1971 shaped older interviewees' fear of war and violence. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | No differentiation | Guinea | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article uses Gersovite and Kriger's (2013) definition of civil war and defines it as the following "a politically organized, large-scale, sustained, physically violent conflict that occurs within a country principally among large/numerically important groups of its inhabitants or citizens over the monopoly of physical force within the country. Civil wars usually have incumbent governments that control the state and have a monopoly of force before the civil war and challengers." | Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | The study employed an ethnographic approach with 232 semi-structured questionnaires administered to 129 male and 103 female respondents between the ages of 18 and 35 years. An additional 264 questionnaires were administered to 151 male and 113 female respondents between the ages of 36 and 60 years. Data were collected from August to November 2016 and from January to March 2018, when follow-up interviews were done with some of the respondents. Additionally, 31 government officials, 10 academics, 18 security and peacebuilding experts, and 59 civil society actors were either interviewed or participated in focus group discussions (FGDs) in all the locations studied. The actors engaged were selected based on their experience working for youth-related Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) of the Government of Guinea, experts in security and peacebuilding-related issues, or they worked for youth-focused civil society organisations, especially during the conflicts in the region. | Finding of the primary article Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 Touré used the Portuguese invasion as an opportunity to get rid of those he believed to be disloyal to him. This created fear in the mindset of Guineans and discouraged any intention to challenge the state, a lesson that was to remain potent for several decades after his passing. |
| Ongoing insecurity and displacement | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (In)directly experienced violence/safety | The vulnerability associated with forced displacement significantly increases the risk for children to see becoming associated with an armed group as a way to replace the protection they formerly received from their family, or even as a means to find and reunite with their family by moving with the armed group. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Insecurity is interlinked with recurring displacement. Refugees and internally displaced persons may end up in settings were they experience high levels of poverty, violence and social isolation. | Children | No differentiation | Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Colombia, South Sudan. Iraq | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | A primary finding of one study, with findings said to be especially relevant in Colombia World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/it-takes-world/publication/no-choice-it-takes-world-end-use-child-soldiers |
| Irregular leadership change in neighboring states | Static risk factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Ir)regular leadership change | Revolutions tend to bring personalist leaders with aggressive foreign policy into office (Colgan & Weeks, 2015). Even if relations between the neighbor and civil war states have been cooperative or at least free from conflict in the past, the prospect of a more aggressive leader arising out of the conflict may have negative implications for future relations. More generally, irregular leadership change in neighboring states increases uncertainty and reduces information flows about potential third-party actors who could intervene in a conflict, and this uncertainty increases the risk of intrastate conflict onset (Sakstrup, 2021). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil war spillover, where civil wars are defined as conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. While different definitions and criteria can lead to the inclusion or exclusion of particular events in different studies, this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations. The overview of scholarship in this area thus includes studies that apply different definitions of “civil war.” The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references one article: Sakstrup, C. "What’s Going on Next Door? Irregular Leader Change in Neighboring Countries, Uncertainty, and Civil War." Journal of Peace Research 58, no. 3 (2021): 539–553. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022343320913092 |
| Lack of educational opportunities | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) access to education | Researchers argue that whenever normal educational opportunities are blocked, young people begin to seek out other educational opportunities, often ending up in military schools. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | Four books or articles are cited in support; Machel, Graça. Impact of Armed Conflict on Children. New York: UNICEF, 1996 https://childrenandarmedconflict.un.org/1996/08/1996-graca-machel-report-impact-armed-conflict-children/ Wessells, Michael. Child Soldiers: From Violence to Protection. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2006 https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1dv0trf Cohn, Ilene, and Guy Goodwin-Gill. Child Soldiers. The Role of Children in Armed Conflict. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1994 https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198259350.001.0001 Peters, Krijn. "Re-examining voluntarism. Youth combatants in Sierra Leone." Institute for Security Studies Monographs 2004, no. 100 (2004): 35. https://hdl.handle.net/10520/EJC48645 |
| Lack of options for education | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) access to education | were armed conflict is present, children’s opportunities for education are limited. Schools are destroyed or occupied by armed groups or by families who have been displaced. Resources that may have already been very limited no longer exist, and quality teachers are in short supply. were schools are functioning, disruption to economic activities, such as farming, leave parents unable to afford to send children or requiring their help to provide for the family’s basic needs. | Unspecified | Of the 303 million children out of school globally, more than one-third live in countries affected by conflict and disasters. In the crisis that began in August 2016 in the Kasai Region of the DRC, for example, 150,000 children lost access to school as a result of violence, damage to school facilities and displacement. In field research in CAR and Colombia, schools were seen uniformly as substandard and, in many places World Vision works, are inaccessible. For some, this is a primary driver of children engaging with armed groups. | Recruitment | Societal | Presence of armed conflict lowers educational opportunities | Children | No differentiation | Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Colombia | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on the issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Four studies provide support for this risk factor: UNICEF. A Future Stolen: Young and Out-of-School. September 2018. https://data.unicef.org/resources/a-future-stolen/ UNICEF. “150,000 Children in Greater Kasai Region Need Emergency Support to Continue Education.” Press release, June 9, 2017. https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/150000-children-greater-kasai-region-need-emergency-support-continue-education World Vision. Will You Hear Us: 100 Children in DRC Tell Their Story. September 2018. https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/will-you-hear-us-100-children-drc-tell-their-story O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Being in school and receiving a good education | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) access to education | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Central African Republic and Colombia | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | The study references field research in Central African Republic and Colombia and notes children cited being in school and receiving a good education as a factor preventing them from being recruited. World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/it-takes-world/publication/no-choice-it-takes-world-end-use-child-soldiers |
| Lack of schooling | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) access to education | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Being a street child | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation, Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) adequate housing, Age | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | de Vise-Lewis: Democratic Republic of Congo | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | The study cites two reports in support of this risk factor: de Vise-Lewis, Emma, Stefano Schwarz, and Bavon Mupenda. Tug of War: Children and Armed Groups in DRC. War Child and Child Frontiers, 2018. https://www.warchild.net/documents/58/Tug-Of-War_Children_in_Armed_Groups_in_DRC.pdf O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Desire for a sense of belonging | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | One article and one book are cited in support: Brett, Rachel, Margaret McCallin, and Rhona O’Shea. Children: Invisible Soldiers. Report on the Participation of Children in Armed Conflicts and International Disturbances and Tensions for the United Nation Study in the Impact of Armed Conflict on Children. Geneva: The Quaker United Nations Office, 1996. Wessells, Michael. Child Soldiers: From Violence to Protection. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2006. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1dv0trf |
| Strong communities and family ties | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Guinean communities have strong community and family ties that strengthen and maintain bonds that are essential in discouraging anti-community activities. Breaking community/family ties is usually frowned upon, with families and communities usually disown the victim. As such, young people tend to generally conform rather than go against the wishes of their families and community members. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Relational | Unspecified | Youth, Adults | No differentiation | Guinea | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article uses Gersovite and Kriger's (2013) definition of civil war and defines it as the following "a politically organized, large-scale, sustained, physically violent conflict that occurs within a country principally among large/numerically important groups of its inhabitants or citizens over the monopoly of physical force within the country. Civil wars usually have incumbent governments that control the state and have a monopoly of force before the civil war and challengers." | Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | The study employed an ethnographic approach with 232 semi-structured questionnaires administered to 129 male and 103 female respondents between the ages of 18 and 35 years. An additional 264 questionnaires were administered to 151 male and 113 female respondents between the ages of 36 and 60 years. Data were collected from August to November 2016 and from January to March 2018, when follow-up interviews were done with some of the respondents. Additionally, 31 government officials, 10 academics, 18 security and peacebuilding experts, and 59 civil society actors were either interviewed or participated in focus group discussions (FGDs) in all the locations studied. The actors engaged were selected based on their experience working for youth-related Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) of the Government of Guinea, experts in security and peacebuilding-related issues, or they worked for youth-focused civil society organisations, especially during the conflicts in the region. | Finding of the primary article Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 One interviewee stated: "In Guinea we believe in family and community. We do not let our people go astray. We advise and push especially the young people to do the right thing. We do so by talking to them and caring for them. We may be poor but we are united and those who insist on doing the wrong thing we wash our hands of. There is nothing like family and community and we teach our children to respect that." |
| Sense of belonging | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | It is natural for children to want to belong, and as they develop, their identity is entwined with their social surroundings. Classmates, members of common clubs and others give children a sense of inclusion. were children’s and youth clubs do not exist and children are not in school, children can feel isolated and seek out belonging. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Peers and friends are already members of armed groups. Also, sense of belonging and purpose (from) the home, school, community, or institutions are often interrupted as a result of conflict, displacement or high rates of criminality. | Children | No differentiation | South Sudan | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Unspecified |
| Loneliness | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Female representation in national legislative assemblies | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) gender parity | There are a number of arguments about why repression of women’s rights leads to greater violence against the state. Most of them rest on some variation of grievance theory. For example, Murdie and Peksen (2015, p. 182) argue that when a government does not respect women’s economic or political rights, it is likely that the capabilities of a woman in that nation greatly differ from her expectations, either with a reference category of the male counterparts in the country or with a reference category of what women outside of her country are receiving. Thus, she is more likely to have grievances consistent with relative deprivation theory (Gurr 1968). Caprioli (2005) agrees with this argument. However, she goes further by contending that greater political and economic discrimination by males against females in a society is an indication of a greater willingness by the state to use domination against most, if not all, subordinate groups. From this perspective, low respect for women’s rights is a proxy for low respect for minority rights of all kinds. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Literature review of an individual study examining the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | The literature review refers to one article in support of this protective factor: Melander, Erik. "Gender equality and intrastate armed conflict." International Studies Quarterly 49, no. 4 (2005): 695-714. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2005.00384.x |
| Attraction to adventure | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Low) sensation seeking | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | One article and one book are cited in support: Brett, Rachel, Margaret McCallin, and Rhona O’Shea. Children: Invisible Soldiers. Report on the Participation of Children in Armed Conflicts and International Disturbances and Tensions for the United Nation Study in the Impact of Armed Conflict on Children. Geneva: The Quaker United Nations Office, 1996. Wessells, Michael. Child Soldiers. From Violence to Protection. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2006. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1dv0trf |
| Boredom | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Low) sensation seeking | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Financial and caregiving family responsibility at home | Static protective factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (No) duty of care | Adolescent boys and girls who reported being financially responsible for their families described having to take care of their younger siblings or mother and therefore being unable to leave home to engage with the armed groups. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children, Youth | Male and female | Ouham-Pendé, CAR and North Kivu, DRC | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Findings of a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews. The authors find family responsibility may also be a protective factor for preventing child recruitment, particularly for older adolescents in both countries. Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS Global Public Health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1482629/v1 |
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| Providing support to parents and caregivers to improve children's overall well-being | Dynamic protective factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (No) duty of care | Families have been identified as key influencers in the decision for a child to become involved with an armed group. Having supportive parents can be key to avoiding engagement, but parents can also push children to join. In crisis settings families face additional stresses and parents also experience anxiety, fear and other emotions linked to the insecurity in their surroundings. Providing support to parents and caregivers can help to improve children’s overall well- being and potentially reduce the risk of children leaving home or being at heightened risk of recruitment. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Colombia, South Sudan. Iraq | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Unspecified |
| Lootable economic resources | Dynamic risk factor | (Situational) Location | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Accessible location | Collier & Hoeffler (2004) argue that civil wars occur were rebellions are most feasible, rather than were actors are motivated by political grievances. Lootable resources make organizing and sustaining a rebel organization easier and thus explain were and when civil wars break out. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | One article is cited in support: Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4 (2004): 563–95. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064 |
| Countries in the near proximity of a country involved in civil war | Static risk factor | (Situational) Location | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Accessible location, Border area | Countries in the near proximity of a country involved in civil war are arguably more exposed both to spillover externalities and to demonstration effects. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Country, Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | Several articles argue and find evidence for this effect, but the author notes that spatial proximity has typically not been treated as an important determinant, but as a selection criterion, which has hampered inference about its relative importance. Lake, David A., and Donald Rothchild. "Spreading Fear: The Genesis of Transnational Ethnic Conflict." In The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation, edited by David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild, 3–30. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998. Buhaug, Halvard, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space." International Studies Quarterly 52, no. 2 (2008): 215–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2008.00499.x Maves, Jessica, and Alex Braithwaite. "Autocratic Institutions and Civil Conflict Contagion." Journal of Politics 75, no. 2 (2013): 478–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000157 |
| Transborder sanctuaries for rebel groups | Dynamic risk factor | (Situational) Location, (Political) Interference | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Accessible location, Border area, Sovereignty violation | In Salehyan: If rebel groups can use other territories as a base of operations, thereby escaping the jurisdiction of their own state, they can significantly lower the costs of insurgency and improve bargaining outcomes. Access to neighboring territory will be especially important for rebels, as proximity facilitates attacking the target state.... by mobilizing abroad, rebels who lack sufficient domestic opportunities can secure a better bargain than they otherwise could. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil war spillover, where civil wars are defined as conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. While different definitions and criteria can lead to the inclusion or exclusion of particular events in different studies, this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations. The overview of scholarship in this area thus includes studies that apply different definitions of “civil war.” The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references one article: Salehyan, Idean. "Transnational Rebels: Neighboring States as Sanctuary for Rebel Groups." World Politics 59, no. 2 (2007): 217–242. https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2007.0024 |
| A young population, or an abundant supply of children | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age | Peters, Richards and Vlassenroot note that Africa is the world’s youngest continent. As a result, both rebel groups and governments may have an easier time recruiting children | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Country | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | Two articles and one book are cited in support of this risk factor; Peters, Krijn, Paul Richards and Koen Vlassenroot. “What Happens to Youth During and After Wars? A Preliminary Review of Literature on Africa and an Assessment of the Debate.” RAWOO Working paper. October, 2003. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/40122729_What_happens_to_youth_during_and_after_wars_a_preliminary_review_of_literature_on_Africa_and_an_assessment_of_the_debate Dallaire, Roméo. They Fight Like Soldiers, They Die Like Children The Global Quest to Eradicate the Use of Child Soldiers. Vintage Canada, 2011. Tynes, Robert, and Bryan R. Early. "Governments, rebels, and the use of child soldiers in internal armed conflicts: A global analysis, 1987–2007." Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 21, no. 1 (2015): 79-110. https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2014-0001 |
| Being a child | Static protective factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age | Children being naturally less suited for an armed group: they can be undisciplined, they lack the necessary weight-bearing abilities and tactical and strategic judgment that might be necessary in combat situations, they are psychologically unprepared for the sustained hardships of war and consequently they are more likely to defect. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | Three articles are cited in support. Beber, Bernd, and Christopher Blattman. “The Logic of Child Soldiering and Coercion.” International Organization 67, no. 1 (2013): 65–104. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818312000409 Gutiérrez-Sanín, Francisco. “Organizing Minors.” Working paper, Ford Institute for Human Security, 2007. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/45787/2007_Organizing_minors.pdf Gutiérrez-Sanín, Francisco. "Organizing Minors: The Case of Colombia." In Child Soldiers in the Age of Fractured States, edited by Scott Gates and Simon Reich, 121–140. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2010. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt5vkgp3.13 |
| Being a child | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age | Children possessing certain characteristics that make them more effective fighters in comparison to adults Children are more malleable, adaptable and obedient; thus, they are more readily indoctrinated and deceived and are consequently easier to control and retain | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | Five articles are cited in support: Beber, Bernd, and Christopher Blattman. “The Logic of Child Soldiering and Coercion.” International Organization 67, no. 1 (2013): 65–104. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818312000409 Boyden, Jo. ‘The Moral Development of Child Soldiers: What Do Adults Have to Fear?’, Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 9, no. 4 (2003a): 343–362. https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327949pac0904_6 Gutiérrez-Sanín, Francisco. “Organizing Minors.” Working paper, Ford Institute for Human Security, 2007. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/45787/2007_Organizing_minors.pdf Gutiérrez-Sanín, Francisco. "Organizing Minors: The Case of Colombia." In Child Soldiers in the Age of Fractured States, edited by Scott Gates and Simon Reich, 121–140. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2010. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt5vkgp3.13 Thompson, Carol B. “Beyond Civil Society: Child Soldiers as Citizens in Mozambique.” Review of African Political Economy 26, no. 80 (1999): 191–206. doi.org/10.1080/03056249908704378 |
| Being a child | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age | The moral shock child soldiers created by being on the battlefield is of benefit for some groups. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | Two articles and two books are cited in support: Dallaire, Roméo. They Fight Like Soldiers, They Die Like Children The Global Quest to Eradicate the Use of Child Soldiers. Vintage Canada, 2011. Tynes, Robert, and Bryan R. Early. "Governments, rebels, and the use of child soldiers in internal armed conflicts: A global analysis, 1987–2007." Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 21, no. 1 (2015): 79-110. https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2014-0001 Singer, Peter Warren. Children at War. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2006. https://www.pwsinger.com/children-at-war/ Singer, Peter Warren. “The New Children of Terror”. In The Making of a Terrorist, edited by James J. F.Forest, 105–119. Westport, CT: Praeger, 2005 https://lccn.loc.gov/2005016849 |
| Junior partners in a power-sharing coalition represent a larger share of the population than senior partners | Static risk factor | Demographic, (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age, Power sharing arrangement | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | One article is cited in support. Group-level analysis revealed that groups that fell from power are particularly likely, among politically excluded groups, to rebel (in line with the qualitative findings of Petersen 2002), as are junior partners in a power-sharing coalition that represent a larger share of the population than senior partners—another way of violating the like-over-like principle of legitimacy introduced by nationalists: Cederman, Lars-Erik, Andreas Wimmer, and Brian Min. "Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis." World Politics 62, no. 1 (2010): 87–119. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887109990219 |
| Territorial concessions granted to separatist groups as part of a secessionist civil war (characteristic of civil war in one country that makes it more likely for conflict to spread to another) | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Power sharing arrangement | Concessions granted to separatist groups may spur other proximate ethnic groups to demand similar concessions. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Ethnic conflict, Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | Within states, Walter (2003, 2006) has found evidence of such domino effects, but one study finds no evidence of domino effects either across or within borders; territorial concessions granted to rebel groups do not appear to inspire other groups to rebel: Forsberg, Erika. "Do Ethnic Dominoes Fall? Evaluating Domino Effects of Granting Territorial Concessions to Separatist Groups." International Studies Quarterly 57, no. 2 (2013): 329–40. https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12006 |
| Being an anocracy (i.e., a country between democracy and autocracy) | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Anocracy | Democracies are able to solve internal disputes through the ballot and autocracies can suppress rebellions by the use of force or by threatening massive violence. Civil wars are therefore less likely in both democratic and autocratic societies and thus most likely in countries in between, the so-called anocracies. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | Three articles are cited in support: Muller, Edward N., and Erich Weede. "Cross-National Variation in Political Violence: A Rational Action Approach." Journal of Conflict Resolution 34, no. 4 (1990): 624–51. https://doi.org/10.1177/002200279003400400 Hegre, Havard, Tanja Ellingsen, Scott Gates, and Nils Petter Gleditsch. "Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992." American Political Science Review 95, no. 1 (2001): 33–48. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055401000119 Vreeland, James R. "The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War: Unpacking Anocracy." Journal of Conflict Resolution 52, no. 3 (2008): 401–25. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002708315594 |
| Semidemocracies | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Anocracy | Unspecified | Regime type measured through the Polity index. The "Polity Score" captures the regime authority spectrum on a 21-point scale ranging from -10 (hereditary monarchy) to +10 (consolidated democracy). | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | The review references two articles: Hegre et al. (2001) find that semidemocracies are more prone to civil violence than stable autocracies and democracies. However, because of measurement problems relating to the Polity index, this curvilinear effect of democracy does not appear to be robust (Vreeland 2008). Hegre, Håvard, and Nicholas Sambanis. "Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset." Journal of Conflict Resolution 50, no. 4 (2006): 508–35. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002706289303 Vreeland, James Raymond. "The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War: Unpacking Anocracy." Journal of Conflict Resolution 52, no. 3 (2008): 401–25. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002708315594 |
| Having a strong sense of what is morally acceptable, due to strong values and/or religious beliefs | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Approval/disapproval of violence | Several works on rescue behavior during genocide emphasize the causal role of values, moral obligations, and religious beliefs for explaining resistance—a very strong sense of what is morally acceptable and what motivated rescuers to act selflessly on behalf of others and imbued them with a sense of agency were others were paralyzed with fear (Fox and Nyseth Brehm 2018; Fujii 2014; Monroe 2008; Oliner and Oliner 2010). Drawing from the works on moral agency and rescue behavior, this article points to the causal role values can play for motivating non-participation choices in armed groups. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | The literature review mentions four articles on rescue behaviors, and discusses how they may extend to non-participation in conflict. Fox, Nicole, and Hollie Nyseth Brehm. "'I Decided to Save Them': Factors That Shaped Participation in Rescue Efforts during Genocide in Rwanda." Social Forces 96, no. 4 (2018): 1625–48. https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/soy018. Fujii, Lee Ann. Killing Neighbors: Webs of Violence in Rwanda. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2009. https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780801477133/killing-neighbors/ Monroe, Kristen Renwick. "Cracking the Code of Genocide: The Moral Psychology of Rescuers, Bystanders, and Nazis during the Holocaust." Political Psychology 29, no. 5 (2008): 699–736. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2008.00661.x Oliner, Samuel P., and Pearl M. Oliner. The Altruistic Personality: Rescuers of Jews in Nazi Europe. New York: Free Press, 2010. |
| Normalization of violence | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Approval/disapproval of violence | In protracted conflicts, like in the Democratic Republic of Congo, violence and the presence of armed groups become normalised. The ever-present, ‘everydayness’ of guns, violence and conflict may desensitise children and families to the generalised violence around them and reduce their fear of children becoming involved. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Central African Republic, the Kurdistan Republic of Iraq, the Democractic Republic of Congo and South Sudan | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | A primary finding of one study. World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/it-takes-world/publication/no-choice-it-takes-world-end-use-child-soldiers |
| Religious leaders calling for violence | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Approval/disapproval of violence, Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Community | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews factors influencing the onset and dynamics of civil war and extremist intrastate conflict. The authors do not define these conflict types but refer to these terms interchangeably. | Svensson, Isak. “Civil War and Religion: An Overview.” In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.650 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review which examines the extent to which religious factors can explain the onset civil wars. The emphasis is primarily on the large-N quantitative research in this field, but examples of how religious dynamics play out in particular civil wars are mentioned as well. | One article is referenced in support: Basedau, Matthias, Birte Pfeiffer, and Johannes Vüllers. “Bad Religion? Religion, Collective Action, and the Onset of Armed Conflict in Developing Countries.” The Journal of conflict resolution 60, no. 2 (2016): 226–255. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002714541853 |
| Anti-war awareness raising and sensitisation activities undertaken especially in the border areas by religious and community leaders such as the provision of psychological support to families affected during attacks | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Psychosocial) Health | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Approval/disapproval of violence, Therapy | Anti-war awareness raising and sensitisation activities undertaken especially in the border areas by religious and community leaders were instrumental in mitigating the association of young people with armed groups attacking the country. | Unspecified | From the Bangura study: 43% of the total number of respondents indicated that anti-war awareness raising and sensitisation activities undertaken especially in the border areas were instrumental in mitigating the association of young people with armed groups. | Spillover | Individual | Unspecified | Youth, Adults | No differentiation | Guinea | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article uses Gersovite and Kriger's (2013) definition of civil war and defines it as the following "a politically organized, large-scale, sustained, physically violent conflict that occurs within a country principally among large/numerically important groups of its inhabitants or citizens over the monopoly of physical force within the country. Civil wars usually have incumbent governments that control the state and have a monopoly of force before the civil war and challengers." | Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | The study employed an ethnographic approach with 232 semi-structured questionnaires administered to 129 male and 103 female respondents between the ages of 18 and 35 years. An additional 264 questionnaires were administered to 151 male and 113 female respondents between the ages of 36 and 60 years. Data were collected from August to November 2016 and from January to March 2018, when follow-up interviews were done with some of the respondents. Additionally, 31 government officials, 10 academics, 18 security and peacebuilding experts, and 59 civil society actors were either interviewed or participated in focus group discussions (FGDs) in all the locations studied. The actors engaged were selected based on their experience working for youth-related Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) of the Government of Guinea, experts in security and peacebuilding-related issues, or they worked for youth-focused civil society organisations, especially during the conflicts in the region. | Finding of the primary article Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 One interviewee stated: "The presence and the hope provided by religious and community leaders went a long way in stopping my colleagues from either joining the attackers or leaving our community forever. Those were very terrible days and we were sad and had no one to turn to except them. They preached every day in the places we were hiding or the neighbouring communities we ran to. They made us to believe in Guinea and strengthened our faith in Allah. At that point, nothing could have been much more important to us. They saved us from our very selves. We could have gone astray." -an interviewee of the study |
| An active conflict in a neighboring country provides easier access to arms and logistical opportunities | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Arms (un)availability | Perhaps the most direct transnational effect on the outbreak of civil war is the potential role of conflict spillovers or effects of ongoing conflict in a neighboring country. Resort to conflict is often shaped by the perceived experiences and successes of tactics used elsewhere, and an active conflict in a neighboring country can provide easier access to arms or provide logistical opportunities. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Iraq; Syria | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | An alternative to traditional binary distinctions is to approach individual conflicts as broader clusters that may fall somewhere along a spectrum from clearly domestic civil war to clearly international conflict, and may include a complex set of transnational interactions between non-state and state actors in multiple countries. | Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Civil War from a Transnational Perspective." Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. 28 Jun. 2017 https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.312 | Academic | 2017 | Overall review | The literature review focuses on empirical and large-N comparative quantitative literature in conflict research, with some bias towards early influential studies that shaped the research agenda. | The overall review provides examples to support this claim: "Some groups such as the Islamic State in Syria, have previously participated in conflict in neighbouring Iraq, and they have been able to bring trained combatants and weapons captured in Iraq to the conflict in Syria." |
| Availability of arms, trained combat personnel, and individuals with leadership experiences combined with moral acceptance of violence | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Arms (un)availability, (In)directly experienced violence/safety, Approval/disapproval of violence | Reid et al. (2021) argue that both tangible and intangible effects of civil war violence create “conflict environments” that increase the risk of domestic instability and conflict not only when civil wars are ongoing nearby, but in some cases for decades afterward. By creating an environment in which violence is both logistically more possible (due to the availability of arms, trained combat personnel, and individuals with leadership experiences) and normatively more acceptable, conflict risk is increased. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil war spillover, where civil wars are defined as conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. While different definitions and criteria can lead to the inclusion or exclusion of particular events in different studies, this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations. The overview of scholarship in this area thus includes studies that apply different definitions of “civil war.” The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references one article: Reid, L., Myrick, R., Kadera, K. M., and Crescenzi, M. J. C. "Conflict Environments and Civil War Onset." Journal of Global Security Studies 6, no. 2 (2021): ogz064. https://academic.oup.com/jogss/article-abstract/6/2/ogz064/5830775?redirectedFrom=fulltext |
| Being an autocratic society | Dynamic protective factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Autoritarianism | Autocracies can suppress rebellions by the use of force or by threatening massive violence. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | Three articles are cited in support: Muller, Edward N., and Erich Weede. "Cross-National Variation in Political Violence: A Rational Action Approach." Journal of Conflict Resolution 34, no. 4 (1990): 624–51. https://doi.org/10.1177/002200279003400400 Hegre, Havard, Tanja Ellingsen, Scott Gates, and Nils Petter Gleditsch. "Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992." American Political Science Review 95, no. 1 (2001): 33–48. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055401000119 Vreeland, James R. "The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War: Unpacking Anocracy." Journal of Conflict Resolution 52, no. 3 (2008): 401–25. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002708315594 |
| Stable autocracies | Dynamic protective factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Autoritarianism | Unspecified | Regime type measured through the Polity index. The "Polity Score" captures the regime authority spectrum on a 21-point scale ranging from -10 (hereditary monarchy) to +10 (consolidated democracy). | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | The review references two articles: Hegre et al. (2001) find that semidemocracies are more prone to civil violence than stable autocracies and democracies. However, because of measurement problems relating to the Polity index, this curvilinear effect of democracy does not appear to be robust (Vreeland 2008). Hegre, Håvard, and Nicholas Sambanis. "Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset." Journal of Conflict Resolution 50, no. 4 (2006): 508–35. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002706289303 Vreeland, James Raymond. "The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War: Unpacking Anocracy." Journal of Conflict Resolution 52, no. 3 (2008): 401–25. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002708315594 |
| Being a relatively "open" autocracy | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Autoritarianism | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Country | We know in the case of civil conflicts that their materiel and effects spillover across borders (Murdoch and Sandler 2002, 2004; Buhaug and Gleditsch 2008), that this dispersion is hastened by refugee flows (Salehyan and Gleditsch 2006) and ameliorated by state capacity (Braithwaite 2010), and that both transmission and emulation appear to pose the greatest threat to relatively “open” autocracies (Maves and Braithwaite 2013). | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors define terrorism as "the premeditated use or threat to use violence by individuals or subnational groups against noncombatants in order to obtain a political or social objective through the intimidation of a large audience beyond that of the immediate victims” (Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev 2011, 321). The authors note that their definition of terrorism does not include acts of terrorism committed by the government, focuses exclusively upon politically motivated acts, and involves attacks against civilians, officials, and/or noncombatants. | Braithwaite, Alex, and Tiffany S Chu. “Civil Conflicts Abroad, Foreign Fighters, and Terrorism at Home.” The Journal of conflict resolution 62, no. 8 (2018): 1636–1660. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717707304 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This quantitative study builds a dataset to examine the relationship between the number of terrorist attacks taking place every year in most countries, and several explanatory factors. The number of terrorist attacks per country/year include both domestic and transnational terrorist activities, and are drawn from Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev’s (2011) version of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). | One article is mentioned in support of this risk factor: Maves, Jessica, and Alex Braithwaite. “Autocratic Institutions and Civil Conflict Contagion.” The Journal of politics 75, no. 2 (2013): 478–490. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000157 |
| Country is ruled by a military regime (i.e., ruled by a group of high-ranking officers who can limit the dictator's discretion) | Static risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Autoritarianism | Military rule entails governance by men who specialize in armed force and maintaining order rather than in political affairs. They are more accustomed to hierarchy and obedience than to bargaining. Because their training and experience differ from those of civilian politicians, military rulers sometimes make different policy choices than would civilian autocrats. The areas in which choices differ include war, response to opposition, and whether to end their own intervention in politics. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | Barbara Geddes, Erica Frantz, and Joseph G. Wright. "Military Rule." Annual Review of Political Science no. 17 (2014): 147-62. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-213418 | Academic | 2014 | Overall review | Narrative literature review | The review article finds overall support for this factor: Military rule as a form of autocratic governance can mean either rule by a military strongman unconstrained by other officers or rule by a group of high-ranking officers who can limit the dictator’s discretion. We label the latter form a military regime. Both military strongmen and military regimes are more likely to commit human rights abuses and become embroiled in civil wars than are civilian dictatorships. |
| Country is ruled by a military strongman (unconstrained by other officers) | Static risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Autoritarianism | Military rule entails governance by men who specialize in armed force and maintaining order rather than in political affairs. They are more accustomed to hierarchy and obedience than to bargaining. Because their training and experience differ from those of civilian politicians, military rulers sometimes make different policy choices than would civilian autocrats. The areas in which choices differ include war, response to opposition, and whether to end their own intervention in politics. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | Barbara Geddes, Erica Frantz, and Joseph G. Wright. "Military Rule." Annual Review of Political Science no. 17 (2014): 147-62. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-213418 | Academic | 2014 | Overall review | Narrative literature review | The review article finds overall support for this factor: Military rule as a form of autocratic governance can mean either rule by a military strongman unconstrained by other officers or rule by a group of high-ranking officers who can limit the dictator’s discretion. We label the latter form a military regime. Both military strongmen and military regimes are more likely to commit human rights abuses and become embroiled in civil wars than are civilian dictatorships. |
| Country is ruled by a military regime (i.e., rule by a group of high-ranking officers who can limit the dictator’s discretion) | Static risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Autoritarianism | Nordlinger (1977) argues that officers’ military attitudes and training hinder their ability to compromise and lead to kneejerk violent responses to challenges, especially challenges to national integrity. | Type of regime as measured through Hadenius and Teorell’s (2007) dataset on military dictatorships and the Geddes et al. (2013) (GWF) dataset. | The article says that "Military regimes are more likely than single-party autocracies to become involved in civil wars" (Fjelde 2010). | Onset | Country | Through an interaction between regime type and time in power, the article shows that civil war becomes more likely over time as the military remains in power. This result makes it unlikely that the correlation between military rule and civil war is caused by the tendency of military leaders to seize power during the conflicts leading up to civil war. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | Barbara Geddes, Erica Frantz, and Joseph G. Wright. "Military Rule." Annual Review of Political Science no. 17 (2014): 147-62. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-213418 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review | Two studies are cited in support of this risk factor: Nordlinger, Eric A. Soldiers in Politics : Military Coups and Governments. Englewood Cliffs, N.J: Prentice-Hall, 1977. Hanne Fjelde. "Generals, dictators, and kings." Conflict Management and Peace Science 27 no. 3 (2010): 195–218. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894210366507 |
| Country is a military-led autocracy, led by either a single military strongman or a junta representing the officer corps. | Static risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Autoritarianism | Fjelde (2010) finds that military-led autocracies seem to be less skilled at avoiding the escalation of grievances into civil war than other kinds of autocracy. | Type of regime as measured through Hadenius and Teorell’s (2007) dataset on military dictatorships and the Geddes et al. (2013) (GWF) dataset. | Using Hadenius & Teorell’s (2007) dataset, Fjelde finds that civil wars are more likely to start during military-led autocracies and electoral autocracies (dictatorships with multiparty legislative elections) than during single-party dictatorships or monarchies. | Onset | Country | Through an interaction between regime type and time in power, the article shows that civil war becomes more likely over time as the military remains in power. This result makes it unlikely that the correlation between military rule and civil war is caused by the tendency of military leaders to seize power during the conflicts leading up to civil war. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | Barbara Geddes, Erica Frantz, and Joseph G. Wright. "Military Rule." Annual Review of Political Science no. 17 (2014): 147-62. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-213418 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review | One study is cited in support of this risk factor: Hanne Fjelde. "Generals, dictators, and kings." Conflict Management and Peace Science 27 no. 3 (2010): 195–218. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894210366507 |
| Country is an electoral autocracy (i.e., a dictatorship with multiparty legislative elections) | Static risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Autoritarianism | Unspecified | Type of regime as measured through Hadenius and Teorell’s (2007) dataset on military dictatorships and the Geddes et al. (2013) (GWF) dataset. | Using Hadenius & Teorell’s (2007) data, Fjelde finds that civil wars are more likely to start during military-led autocracies and electoral autocracies (dictatorships with multiparty legislative elections) than during single-party dictatorships or monarchies. | Onset | Country | Through an interaction between regime type and time in power, the article shows that civil war becomes more likely over time as the military remains in power. This result makes it unlikely that the correlation between military rule and civil war is caused by the tendency of military leaders to seize power during the conflicts leading up to civil war. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | Barbara Geddes, Erica Frantz, and Joseph G. Wright. "Military Rule." Annual Review of Political Science no. 17 (2014): 147-62. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-213418 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review | One study is cited in support of this risk factor: Hanne Fjelde. "Generals, dictators, and kings." Conflict Management and Peace Science 27 no. 3 (2010): 195–218. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894210366507 |
| Country is ruled by a personalist dictatorship (i.e., an autocracy in which discretion over policy and personnel is concentrated in the hands of one man, either civilian or military) | Static risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Autoritarianism | Unspecified | Type of regime as measured through Hadenius and Teorell’s (2007) dataset on military dictatorships and the Geddes et al. (2013) (GWF) dataset. | Using GWF data, Fjelde (2010) finds that civil wars are more likely in military regimes, personalist dictatorships, and monarchies than in dominant-party regimes. | Onset | Country | Through an interaction between regime type and time in power, the article shows that civil war becomes more likely over time as the military remains in power. This result makes it unlikely that the correlation between military rule and civil war is caused by the tendency of military leaders to seize power during the conflicts leading up to civil war. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | Barbara Geddes, Erica Frantz, and Joseph G. Wright. "Military Rule." Annual Review of Political Science no. 17 (2014): 147-62. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-213418 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review | One study is cited in support of this risk factor: Hanne Fjelde. "Generals, dictators, and kings." Conflict Management and Peace Science 27 no. 3 (2010): 195–218. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894210366507 |
| Country is ruled by a monarchy | Static risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Autoritarianism | Unspecified | Type of regime as measured through Hadenius and Teorell’s (2007) dataset on military dictatorships and the Geddes et al. (2013) (GWF) dataset. | Using GWF data, Fjelde (2010) finds that civil wars are more likely in military regimes, personalist dictatorships, and monarchies than in dominant-party regimes. | Onset | Country | Through an interaction between regime type and time in power, the article shows that civil war becomes more likely over time as the military remains in power. This result makes it unlikely that the correlation between military rule and civil war is caused by the tendency of military leaders to seize power during the conflicts leading up to civil war. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | Barbara Geddes, Erica Frantz, and Joseph G. Wright. "Military Rule." Annual Review of Political Science no. 17 (2014): 147-62. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-213418 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review | One study is cited in support of this risk factor: Hanne Fjelde. "Generals, dictators, and kings." Conflict Management and Peace Science 27 no. 3 (2010): 195–218. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894210366507 |
| An increase in religious restrictions coming from an authoritarian regime (a risk factor for civil war over religious issues and/or identities) | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights, (Political) Regime, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Autoritarianism, Discrimination, Group identity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews factors influencing the onset and dynamics of civil war and extremist intrastate conflict. The authors do not define these conflict types but refer to these terms interchangeably. | Svensson, Isak. “Civil War and Religion: An Overview.” In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.650 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review which examines the extent to which religious factors can explain the onset civil wars. The emphasis is primarily on the large-N quantitative research in this field, but examples of how religious dynamics play out in particular civil wars are mentioned as well. | One article is cited in support: Kim, Dongsuk, and Hyun Jin Choi. “Autocracy, Religious Restriction, and Religious Civil War.” Politics and Religion 10, no. 2 (2017): 311–338. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755048316000778 |
| Autocratic institutions(political marginalization) | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Autoritarianism, Exclusion/inclusion | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | An alternative to traditional binary distinctions is to approach individual conflicts as broader clusters that may fall somewhere along a spectrum from clearly domestic civil war to clearly international conflict, and may include a complex set of transnational interactions between non-state and state actors in multiple countries. | Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Civil War from a Transnational Perspective." Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. 28 Jun. 2017 https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.312 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | The literature review focuses on empirical and large-N comparative quantitative literature in conflict research, with some bias towards early influential studies that shaped the research agenda. | Two articles are cited in support of this risk factor: Cederman, Lars-Erik, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and Julian Wucherpfennig. "Predicting the Decline of Ethnic Civil War: Was Gurr Right and for the Right Reasons?" Journal of Peace Research 54, no. 2 (2017): 262–274. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316684191 Hegre, Håvard, Tanja Ellingsen, Scott Gates, and Nils Petter Gleditsch. "Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992." American Political Science Review 95, no. 1 (2001): 33–48. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055401000119 |
| Being a displaced child | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Being a migrant/refugee/displaced, Age | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | de Vise-Lewis: Democratic Republic of Congo | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | The study cites two reports in support of this risk factor: de Vise-Lewis, Emma, Stefano Schwarz, and Bavon Mupenda. Tug of War: Children and Armed Groups in DRC. War Child and Child Frontiers, 2018. https://www.warchild.net/documents/58/Tug-Of-War_Children_in_Armed_Groups_in_DRC.pdf O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Two states sharing a long border | Static risk factor | (Situational) Location | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Border area | A long, shared border is more difficult to monitor and is hence associated with an increased likelihood that weapons and armed groups move from the conflict state to its neighbor | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One article is referenced which does not find support of this effect: Buhaug, Halvard, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space." International Studies Quarterly 52, no. 2 (2008): 215–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2008.00499.x |
| Presence of rebel troops in neighbouring state | Static risk factor | (Situational) Location, (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Border area, (Absence of) conflict events | As Phillips (2015) explains, whether the regime supports the rebels or the government in the neighboring conflict, the presence of rebel troops can increase the likelihood of domestic or international conflict... Neighbor regimes sympathetic to the rebels may still need to modify the policy to thwart anticipated civil war-state reprisals, while regimes antagonistic to the rebels may worry about direct attacks from the rebel troops or their presence stirring up domestic discontent or imitation. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil war spillover, where civil wars are defined as conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. While different definitions and criteria can lead to the inclusion or exclusion of particular events in different studies, this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations. The overview of scholarship in this area thus includes studies that apply different definitions of “civil war.” The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references on article Phillips, B. J. "Civil War, Spillover, and Neighbors' Military Spending." Conflict Management and Peace Science 32, no. 4 (2015): 425–442. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26271399 |
| Two states sharing a mountainous border | Static protective factor | (Situational) Location | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Border area, Rough terrain | If the two states share a mountainous border, it may make spillover less likely because this would hamper the movement of, for instance, arms and mercenaries from the conflict state to the neighboring state. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One article is referenced which does not find support of this effect: Buhaug, Halvard, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space." International Studies Quarterly 52, no. 2 (2008): 215–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2008.00499.x |
| State and national borders do not coincide, especially where ethnonationalist groups are exposed to “alien rule” | Static risk factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Border contestation | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Transnational, Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | The review references one book that finds that, according to theories of nationalism, conflict-inducing tensions tend to arise were state and national borders do not coincide, especially where ethnonationalist groups are exposed to “alien rule." Gellner, Ernest. Nations and Nationalism. Oxford, UK: Blackwell, 1983. |
| An increase in per capita income among Muslims in India | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Change in comparative incomes between groups | Mitra & Ray argue that the rise in Muslim incomes aggravates the desire to loot or seek retribution against an upstart community. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | India | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | One article is cited in support; Mitra, Arup, and Debraj Ray. "Implications of an Economic Theory of Conflict: Hindu-Muslim Violence in India." Journal of Political Economy 122 (2014): 719–65. https://doi.org/10.1086/676316 |
| An increase in per capita income among a specific religious group | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Change in comparative incomes between groups | Mitra & Ray argue that the rise in Hindu income represents an opportunity cost effect. Hindu income increases serve to reduce Hindu–Muslim violence. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | India | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | One article is cited in support; Mitra, Arup, and Debraj Ray. "Implications of an Economic Theory of Conflict: Hindu-Muslim Violence in India." Journal of Political Economy 122 (2014): 719–65. https://doi.org/10.1086/676316 |
| The improvement in the economic fortunes of a rival group even when that rival group is poorer (change in the relative income status of two similar groups). | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Change in comparative incomes between groups | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Mitra (2014) India Olzak (1996) Unspecified de Tocqueville (1856) France | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Overall review | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | An overall review of multiple studies (cited below), which find as the fortunes of the deprived group improve, the previously advantaged groups may feel threatened and react with violence - or the previously disadvantaged group may be resourced and knowledgeable enough to justify conflict. From this point of view, conflict is more about the change in the relative income status of two similar groups rather than the overall level of inequality, a consideration that also appears in Stewart (2002). Mitra, Arup, and Debraj Ray. "Implications of an Economic Theory of Conflict: Hindu-Muslim Violence in India." Journal of Political Economy 122 (2014): 719–65. https://doi.org/10.1086/676316 Olzak, Susan, and Shanahan, S. "Deprivation and Race Riots: An Extension of Spilerman’s Analysis." Social Forces 74 (1996): 931–61. https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/74.3.931 de Tocqueville, Alexis. The Old Regime and the French Revolution. New York: Anchor Books, 1955. |
| Coercion deployed by armed groups to compel recruits to join | Static risk factor | (Security) Armed Groups | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Coercion | Coercion deployed by armed groups increases the costs of non-participation. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One article is cited in support. Humphreys, Macartan, and Jeremy M. Weinstein. "Who Fights? The Determinants of Participation in Civil War." American Journal of Political Science 52, no. 2 (2008): 436–55. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00322.x |
| Believing that leaders were not corrupt | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice, (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Corruption/good governance, (Lack of) trust in institutions | Unspecified | Unspecified | From the Bangura study: As indicated by 73% of respondents between the ages of 36 and 60 years, though heavy-handed, Toure ́was not perceived to be corrupt. | Spillover | Individual | The belief that leaders were not corrupt was linked to the way that Guinean leaders fostered lasting and good relationships with their population, especially with youth. As one interviewee stated: "Houphouet was persuasive, he was politically savvy, he understood the needs of the Ivorian youth and was not afraid to engage and support them. He provided them with education, food, and jobs. Toure´was aggressive and his socialist pre-independence rhetoric informed his entire era. The youth thought he was giving them a future, at the end he gave them nothing, just fear and words." | Youth, Adults | No differentiation | Guinea | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article uses Gersovite and Kriger's (2013) definition of civil war and defines it as the following "a politically organized, large-scale, sustained, physically violent conflict that occurs within a country principally among large/numerically important groups of its inhabitants or citizens over the monopoly of physical force within the country. Civil wars usually have incumbent governments that control the state and have a monopoly of force before the civil war and challengers." | Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | The study employed an ethnographic approach with 232 semi-structured questionnaires administered to 129 male and 103 female respondents between the ages of 18 and 35 years. An additional 264 questionnaires were administered to 151 male and 113 female respondents between the ages of 36 and 60 years. Data were collected from August to November 2016 and from January to March 2018, when follow-up interviews were done with some of the respondents. Additionally, 31 government officials, 10 academics, 18 security and peacebuilding experts, and 59 civil society actors were either interviewed or participated in focus group discussions (FGDs) in all the locations studied. The actors engaged were selected based on their experience working for youth-related Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) of the Government of Guinea, experts in security and peacebuilding-related issues, or they worked for youth-focused civil society organisations, especially during the conflicts in the region. | Finding of the primary article Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 |
| The interaction of high levels of corruption and appropriable resources (such as oil) | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice, (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Corruption/good governance, Resource wealth/scarcity | Corruption reduces conflict risk of a country by offsetting the destabilizing effect of resource abundance | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | the interaction of high levels of corruption and appropriable resources (such as oil) | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global sample in 1985–99 | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | One article is cited in support: Fjelde, Hanne. "Buying Peace? Oil Wealth, Corruption, and Civil War, 1985–99." Journal of Peace Research 46, no. 2 (2009): 199–218. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343308100715 |
| Deforestation | Dynamic risk factor | (Environmental) Preservation/Degradation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Deforestation/conservation | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global sample in 1980–92 | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | The review references one study: Hauge, Wenche, and Tanja Ellingsen. "Beyond Environmental Scarcity: Causal Pathways to Conflict." Journal of Peace Research 35, no. 3 (1998): 299–317. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343398035003003 |
| Being a democratic society | Dynamic protective factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Democracy | The democratic civil peace theory states that democracies are able to solve internal disputes through the ballot. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | Three articles are cited in support: Muller, Edward N., and Erich Weede. "Cross-National Variation in Political Violence: A Rational Action Approach." Journal of Conflict Resolution 34, no. 4 (1990): 624–51. https://doi.org/10.1177/002200279003400400 Hegre, Havard, Tanja Ellingsen, Scott Gates, and Nils Petter Gleditsch. "Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992." American Political Science Review 95, no. 1 (2001): 33–48. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055401000119 Vreeland, James R. "The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War: Unpacking Anocracy." Journal of Conflict Resolution 52, no. 3 (2008): 401–25. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002708315594 |
| Being a democracy | Dynamic protective factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Democracy | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach." Journal of Political Economy 112 (2004): 725–53. https://doi.org/10.1086/421174 |
| Stable democracies | Dynamic protective factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Democracy | Unspecified | Regime type measured through the Polity index. The "Polity Score" captures the regime authority spectrum on a 21-point scale ranging from -10 (hereditary monarchy) to +10 (consolidated democracy). | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | The review references two articles: Hegre et al. (2001) find that semidemocracies are more prone to civil violence than stable autocracies and democracies. However, because of measurement problems relating to the Polity index, this curvilinear effect of democracy does not appear to be robust (Vreeland 2008). Hegre, Håvard, and Nicholas Sambanis. "Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset." Journal of Conflict Resolution 50, no. 4 (2006): 508–35. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002706289303 Vreeland, James Raymond. "The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War: Unpacking Anocracy." Journal of Conflict Resolution 52, no. 3 (2008): 401–25. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002708315594 |
| Presence of refugees from neighboring countries | Dynamic risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Demographic changes (incl. Migration/Forced diplacement) | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | The review references one article: Salehyan, Idean, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Refugees and the Spread of Civil War." International Organization 60, no. 2 (2006): 335–66. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818306060103 |
| Refugee inflows | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Demographic changes (incl. Migration/Forced diplacement) | Refugees exit the state because of a direct experience of persecution or political violence and therefore may have strong grievances. Refugees living in squalid camp conditions have very low opportunity costs for joining rebel organizations; doing so may offer a better quality of life and a sense of purpose. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment, Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil war spillover, where civil wars are defined as conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. While different definitions and criteria can lead to the inclusion or exclusion of particular events in different studies, this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations. The overview of scholarship in this area thus includes studies that apply different definitions of “civil war.” The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references one article: Salehyan, Idean. "Transnational Rebels: Neighboring States as Sanctuary for Rebel Groups." World Politics 59, no. 2 (2007): 217–242. https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2007.0024 |
| Internal displacement | Dynamic risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Demographic changes (incl. Migration/Forced diplacement) | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Country | Viterna (2006, 2013) finds that “push” factors were particularly significant for women who had children at the time of the revolution | Does not specify | Female | El Salvador | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | One article and one book are cited in support: Viterna, Jocelyn S. “Pulled, Pushed, and Persuaded : Explaining Women’s Mobilization into the Salvadoran Guerrilla Army.” The American Journal of Sociology 112, no. 1 (2006): 1–45. https://doi.org/10.1086/502690 Viterna, Jocelyn. Women in War: The Micro-Processes of Mobilization in El Salvador. 1st ed. New York: Oxford University Press, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199843633.001.0001 |
| Having visited or having lived in communities with refugee camps | Dynamic protective factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Demographic changes (incl. Migration/Forced diplacement) | Interviewees who visited or lived in communities with refugee camps vividly recounted how their mutual experiences negatively impacted their vision of civil wars | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Individual | Unspecified | Youth, Adults | No differentiation | Guinea | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article uses Gersovite and Kriger's (2013) definition of civil war and defines it as the following "a politically organized, large-scale, sustained, physically violent conflict that occurs within a country principally among large/numerically important groups of its inhabitants or citizens over the monopoly of physical force within the country. Civil wars usually have incumbent governments that control the state and have a monopoly of force before the civil war and challengers." | Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | The study employed an ethnographic approach with 232 semi-structured questionnaires administered to 129 male and 103 female respondents between the ages of 18 and 35 years. An additional 264 questionnaires were administered to 151 male and 113 female respondents between the ages of 36 and 60 years. Data were collected from August to November 2016 and from January to March 2018, when follow-up interviews were done with some of the respondents. Additionally, 31 government officials, 10 academics, 18 security and peacebuilding experts, and 59 civil society actors were either interviewed or participated in focus group discussions (FGDs) in all the locations studied. The actors engaged were selected based on their experience working for youth-related Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) of the Government of Guinea, experts in security and peacebuilding-related issues, or they worked for youth-focused civil society organisations, especially during the conflicts in the region. | Finding of the primary article Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 As one interviewee stated: "We saw the refugees, we heard their stories, we visited their camps and they came to our houses begging for food and water. We were shocked and scared and even though we know that our leaders are corrupt and greedy, we also did realize that going into war will never be a solution to our problems. I asked myself, “Why war, what good will it bring us, if not more poverty and death?” |
| Refugee flows | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Demographic changes (incl. Migration/Forced diplacement) | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | We know in the case of civil conflicts that their materiel and effects spillover across borders (Murdoch and Sandler 2002, 2004; Buhaug and Gleditsch 2008), that this dispersion is hastened by refugee flows (Salehyan and Gleditsch 2006) and ameliorated by state capacity (Braithwaite 2010), and that both transmission and emulation appear to pose the greatest threat to relatively “open” autocracies (Maves and Braithwaite 2013). | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors define terrorism as "the premeditated use or threat to use violence by individuals or subnational groups against noncombatants in order to obtain a political or social objective through the intimidation of a large audience beyond that of the immediate victims” (Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev 2011, 321). The authors note that their definition of terrorism does not include acts of terrorism committed by the government, focuses exclusively upon politically motivated acts, and involves attacks against civilians, officials, and/or noncombatants. | Braithwaite, Alex, and Tiffany S Chu. “Civil Conflicts Abroad, Foreign Fighters, and Terrorism at Home.” The Journal of conflict resolution 62, no. 8 (2018): 1636–1660. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717707304 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This quantitative study builds a dataset to examine the relationship between the number of terrorist attacks taking place every year in most countries, and several explanatory factors. The number of terrorist attacks per country/year include both domestic and transnational terrorist activities, and are drawn from Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev’s (2011) version of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). | One artiicle is mentioned in support of this risk factor: Salehyan, Idean, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Refugees and the Spread of Civil War." International Organization 60, no. 2 (2006): 335–66. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818306060103 |
| Influx of refugees | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Demographic changes (incl. Migration/Forced diplacement) | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | An alternative to traditional binary distinctions is to approach individual conflicts as broader clusters that may fall somewhere along a spectrum from clearly domestic civil war to clearly international conflict, and may include a complex set of transnational interactions between non-state and state actors in multiple countries. | Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Civil War from a Transnational Perspective." Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. 28 Jun. 2017 https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.312 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | The literature review focuses on empirical and large-N comparative quantitative literature in conflict research, with some bias towards early influential studies that shaped the research agenda. | One article is cited in support of this risk factor: Salehyan, Idean, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Refugees and the Spread of Civil War." International Organization 60, no. 2 (2006): 335–66. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818306060103 |
| Positive economic growth | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Development/contraction of the economy | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Miguel et al. (2004) use excess rainfall as an instrumental variable to estimate economic growth rates in Sub-Saharan Africa. They establish a causal negative relationship between the change in growth rates and conflict in the region between 1981 and 1999. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach." Journal of Political Economy 112, no. 4 (2004): 725–753. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1086/421174 |
| An increase in maize production yields | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Development/contraction of the economy | This effect is consistent with the predation theory of conflict, or increased competition for resources leading to more conflict. | Average local drought levels. | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Koren, Ore. "Food Abundance and Violent Conflict in Africa." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 100, no. 4 (2018): 981–1006. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aax106 |
| Overall economic growth | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Development/contraction of the economy | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Overall review | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | The authors use the combined literature to argue that economic development is intrinsically uneven. It is often the case that overall growth is made up of two kinds of changes: one that creates a larger pot to fight over, and therefore increases conflict, and another that raises the opportunity cost to fighting, and therefore decreases conflict. Whether conflict is positively or negatively related to growth will therefore depend on the type of growth, specifically, how uneven it is across sectors or groups. Cross-country studies are too blunt to pick these effects up in any detail. |
| Higher growth rate of per capita GDP compared to average (using an African sample over many years) | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Development/contraction of the economy | Unspecified | Growth rate of per capita GDP measured through rainfall shocks compared to average using an African sample over many years. This measurement works well in regions in which rainfall significantly affects output. Specifically, a large fraction of output is agricultural, and irrigation is far from being widespread. This measurement, however, is limited as rainfall shocks do not work well outside the sub-Saharan sample or, indeed, even over more recent time periods for sub-Saharan Africa. | Statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis. A five percentage-point drop in annual economic growth increases the likelihood of a civil conflict (at least 25 deaths per year) in the following year by over 12 percentage points, which amounts to an increase of more than one-half in the likelihood of civil war. | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach." Journal of Political Economy 112 (2004): 725–53. https://doi.org/10.1086/421174 |
| Uneven economic growth | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Development/contraction of the economy | Uneven growth may well mean the opportunity cost of engaging in conflict increases less than the increased expected payoff from conflict, thereby making rebellion a more likely outcome. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Overall review | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Several articles are highlighted, notably Dube & Vargas (2013) and Dal Bo & Dal Bo (2011), which argue that uneven economic growth, and how labor-intensive industries are, each effect how economic growth affects conflict risk. Dal Bo, Ernesto, and Pedro Dal Bo. “"Workers, warriors, and criminals: social conflict in general equilibrium.".” Journal of the European Economic Association 9, no. 4 (2011): 646–677. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01025.x |
| Disruption to economic activities | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Development/contraction of the economy | Disruption to economic activities leaves many families dependent on the income they can receive from their child being engaged with an armed group. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Country | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Two studies are cited in support: Hall, Erica. "No Choice: It takes a world to end the use of child soldiers." World Vis Int (2019). Utas, Mats. "Children of War: Child Soldiers as Victims and Participants in the Sudan Civil War by C. Ryan London: IB Tauris, 2012. Pp. 320.£ 59.50 (hbk)." The Journal of Modern African Studies 51, no. 2 (2013): 367-369. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X13000293 |
| Reduction in crop yields | Static risk factor | (Economic) Changes, (Environmental) Weather/Climate | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Development/contraction of the economy, Climate change | Unspecified | Unspecified | Based on their results, the author projects that a future gradual increase in average temperatures will be associated with increased conflict in the region by approximately one-third between 2031 and 2050 and by 100% in the 2081–3010 period over the levels experienced in the 1981–2000 period. | Onset | Country | Jun (2017) links high temperatures during the maize growing season in Sub-Saharan Africa between 1970 and 2012 with a reduction in crop yields and the subsequent increased incidence of civil conflict. The effect was greater for locations with lower maize yield, linking conflict and poverty. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Jun, Tackseung. "Temperature, Maize Yield, and Civil Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa." Climatic Change 142, no. 1–2 (2017): 183–197. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1941-0 |
| The discovery of a “giant” oil field | Static risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Discovery of new natural resources | Unspecified | Unspecified | The researchers find the discovery of a “giant” oil field increases the incidence of armed conflict by about 5 to 8 percentage points, compared to a baseline probability of about 10 percentage points. In countries with recent histories of political violence, the effect is much stronger. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | One study is cited in support: Lei, Yu-Hsiang, and Guy Michaels. "Do Giant Oilfield Discoveries Fuel Internal Armed Conflicts?" Unpublished paper. London: London School of Economics, 2011. |
| Religious discrimination | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Discrimination | The causal process for this effect is disputed. Whereas grievances have been the focus in much of the debate on religious discrimination, the state’s restriction on religion can also influence opportunities for participation in civil war (e.g., by limiting ways in which religious actors can organize or mobilize), and this may explain the onset of civil wars and other forms of religious violence (Muchlinski, 2014). In addition, the causal story can run both ways. Religious civil wars can lead states, especially non-democracies, to be more repressive of religious communities within their borders (Henne & Klocek, 2019; Sarkissian, 2015). This can, in turn, lead to more grievances and conflict in the future. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews factors influencing the onset and dynamics of civil war and extremist intrastate conflict. The authors do not define these conflict types but refer to these terms interchangeably. | Svensson, Isak. “Civil War and Religion: An Overview.” In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.650 | Academic | 2019 | Overall review | Narrative review which examines the extent to which religious factors can explain the onset civil wars. The emphasis is primarily on the large-N quantitative research in this field, but examples of how religious dynamics play out in particular civil wars are mentioned as well. | Earlier research has found that religious discrimination shows no relationship to civil war (Fearon & Laitin, 2003), but the author notes this conclusion needs to be substantially modified in light of later research. In the context of ethnic conflicts, religious discrimination does increase the risk of violence (Akbaba & Taydas, 2011) Moreover, whether religious groups are excluded from political power or downgraded from an earlier higher status of power can heighten grievances and thereby increase the risk for civil war (Bormann et al., 2017). Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75-90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 Akbaba, Yasemin, and Zeynep Taydas. “Does Religious Discrimination Promote Dissent? A Quantitative Analysis.” Ethnopolitics 10, no. 3–4 (2011): 271–295. https://doi.org/10.1080/17449057.2011.561988 Bormann, Nils-Christian, Lars-Erik Cederman, and Manuel Vogt. "Language, religion, and ethnic civil war." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 4 (2017): 744-771. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715600755 |
| State favoritism in terms of preferences and unequal treatment of different religious groups | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Discrimination | State favoritism in terms of preferences and unequal treatment of different religious groups within a country can be a way one group can manifest its domination and can create grievances that increase the risk of civil war | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews factors influencing the onset and dynamics of civil war and extremist intrastate conflict. The authors do not define these conflict types but refer to these terms interchangeably. | Svensson, Isak. “Civil War and Religion: An Overview.” In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.650 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review which examines the extent to which religious factors can explain the onset civil wars. The emphasis is primarily on the large-N quantitative research in this field, but examples of how religious dynamics play out in particular civil wars are mentioned as well. | One book is cited in support: Grim, Brian J, and Roger Finke. “International Religion Indexes: Government Regulation, Government Favoritism, and Social Regulation of Religion.” Interdisciplinary Journal of Research on Religion 2 (2006). |
| Ethnic persecution | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Discrimination | The grievance-based explanation for rebellion suggests that once a threshold of deprivation is crossed due to this persecution, individuals will be driven to rebel. | Unspecified | This is identified as one of the principal sources of grievance in the literature which might lead an individual to join a rebel group. The grievance-based explanation for rebellion suggests that once a threshold of deprivation is crossed due to persecution, individuals will be driven to rebel. | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | One article and one book chapter are cited in support: Humphreys, Macartan, and Jeremy M Weinstein. “Who Fights? The Determinants of Participation in Civil War.” American journal of political science 52, no. 2 (2008): 436–455. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00322.x Frances, Stewart and Brown Graham. “Motivations for Conflict: Groups and Individuals.” In Leashing the Dogs of War: Conflict Management in a Divided World, edited by Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall, 219 – 41. Washington, DC:US Institute of Peace, 2007. |
| Religious persecution | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Discrimination | The grievance-based explanation for rebellion suggests that once a threshold of deprivation is crossed due to this persecution, individuals will be driven to rebel. | Unspecified | This is identified as one of the principal sources of grievance in the literature which might lead an individual to join a rebel group. The grievance-based explanation for rebellion suggests that once a threshold of deprivation is crossed due to persecution, individuals will be driven to rebel. | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | One article and one book chapter are cited in support: Davis, Jessica. “Evolution of the Global Jihad: Female Suicide Bombers in Iraq.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 36, no. 4 (2013): 279–291. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2013.763598 Frances, Stewart and Brown Graham. “Motivations for Conflict: Groups and Individuals.” In Leashing the Dogs of War: Conflict Management in a Divided World, edited by Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall, 219 – 41. Washington, DC:US Institute of Peace, 2007. |
| Political alienation, or restriction from participating in a country's political process | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Discrimination | The grievance-based explanation for rebellion suggests that once a threshold of deprivation is crossed due to this alienation, individuals will be driven to rebel. | Unspecified | This is identified as one of the principal sources of grievance in the literature which might lead an individual to join a rebel group. The grievance-based explanation for rebellion suggests that once a threshold of deprivation is crossed due to this alienation, individuals will be driven to rebel. | Recruitment | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | Three articles/book chapters are cited in support: Davis, Jessica. “Evolution of the Global Jihad: Female Suicide Bombers in Iraq.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 36, no. 4 (2013): 279–291. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2013.763598 Humphreys, Macartan, and Jeremy M Weinstein. “Who Fights? The Determinants of Participation in Civil War.” American Journal of Political Science 52, no. 2 (2008): 436–455. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00322.x Frances, Stewart and Brown Graham. “Motivations for Conflict: Groups and Individuals.” In Leashing the Dogs of War: Conflict Management in a Divided World, edited by Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall, 219 – 41. Washington, DC:US Institute of Peace, 2007. |
| Ethnic exclusion and discrimination (political marginalization) | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights, Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Discrimination, Ethnic diversity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | An alternative to traditional binary distinctions is to approach individual conflicts as broader clusters that may fall somewhere along a spectrum from clearly domestic civil war to clearly international conflict, and may include a complex set of transnational interactions between non-state and state actors in multiple countries. | Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Civil War from a Transnational Perspective." Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. 28 Jun. 2017 https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.312 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | The literature review focuses on empirical and large-N comparative quantitative literature in conflict research, with some bias towards early influential studies that shaped the research agenda. | Two articles are cited in support of this risk factor: Cederman, Lars-Erik, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and Julian Wucherpfennig. "Predicting the Decline of Ethnic Civil War: Was Gurr Right and for the Right Reasons?" Journal of Peace Research 54, no. 2 (2017): 262–274. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316684191 Hegre, Håvard, Tanja Ellingsen, Scott Gates, and Nils Petter Gleditsch. "Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992." American Political Science Review 95, no. 1 (2001): 33–48. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055401000119 |
| Religious discrimination causing grievances | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Discrimination, Group identity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews factors influencing the onset and dynamics of civil war and extremist intrastate conflict. The authors do not define these conflict types but refer to these terms interchangeably. | Svensson, Isak. “Civil War and Religion: An Overview.” In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.650 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review which examines the extent to which religious factors can explain the onset civil wars. The emphasis is primarily on the large-N quantitative research in this field, but examples of how religious dynamics play out in particular civil wars are mentioned as well. | One article is cited which finds that discrimination increases the probability that groups will express grievances, but religious grievances do not necessarily increase the risk of civil war. Basedau, Matthias, Jonathan Fox, Jan H. Pierskalla, Georg Strüver, and Johannes Vüllers. "Does discrimination breed grievances—and do grievances breed violence? New evidence from an analysis of religious minorities in developing countries." Conflict Management and Peace Science 34, no. 3 (2017): 217-239. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894215581329 |
| Proximity to armed forces/groups | Static risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Distance/proximity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Desire to try recreational drugs or need to feed a drug addiction | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Drug abuse/moderation | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | de Vise-Lewis: Democratic Republic of Congo | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | The study cites two reports in support of this risk factor: de Vise-Lewis, Emma, Stefano Schwarz, and Bavon Mupenda. Tug of War: Children and Armed Groups in DRC. War Child and Child Frontiers, 2018. https://www.warchild.net/documents/58/Tug-Of-War_Children_in_Armed_Groups_in_DRC.pdf O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Economic and political linkages between states | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Economic integration | The incentives for states to support conflicts in neighboring states are shaped to a large extent by their affinity or antipathies to existing regimes. Actors in more integrated and complex economies face greater costs from conflict and therefore have greater interest in maintaining peaceful relations. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Spillover | Transnational | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil war spillover, where civil wars are defined as conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. While different definitions and criteria can lead to the inclusion or exclusion of particular events in different studies, this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations. The overview of scholarship in this area thus includes studies that apply different definitions of “civil war.” The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references one article: Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Transnational Dimensions of Civil War." Journal of Peace Research 44, no. 3 (2007): 293–309. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27640512 |
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| Authoritarian states with elected legislatures (characteristic of a country that is a potential target of diffusion) | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Elected legislature, Autoritarianism | Among authoritarian states, those with elected legislatures are increasingly receptive to diffusion because they may breed latent opposition groups | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One article is referenced in support of this effect: Maves, Jessica, and Alex Braithwaite. "Autocratic Institutions and Civil Conflict Contagion." Journal of Politics 75, no. 2 (2013): 478–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000157 |
| A lack of employment opportunities | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment | A lack of employment opportunities can invoke a sense of despair and/or can make fighting in armed conflict seem like a viable job option. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | One report and one article are cited in support; Brett, Rachel, Margaret McCallin, and Rhona O’Shea. Children: Invisible Soldiers. Report on the Participation of Children in Armed Conflicts and International Disturbances and Tensions for the United Nation Study in the Impact of Armed Conflict on Children. Geneva: The Quaker United Nations Office, 1996. Tynes, Robert, and Bryan R. Early. "Governments, rebels, and the use of child soldiers in internal armed conflicts: A global analysis, 1987–2007." Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 21, no. 1 (2015): 79-110. https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2014-0001 |
| Armed groups as the only employer | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment | When armed groups are the only employer, joining an armed group may be the only realistic survival strategy. This lack of opportunities may have been an issue before the conflict and may be exacerbated by the presence of armed violence. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Presence of armed conflict (which reduces employment opportunities) | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | One study is cited in support of this risk factor: O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Lack of employment and education opportunities | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation, (Psychosocial) Education | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment, (Lack of) access to education | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Community | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | South Sudan, CAR, DRC, and Colombia | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Two studies are cited in support: Hall, Erica. "No Choice: It takes a world to end the use of child soldiers." World Vis Int (2019). Utas, Mats. "Children of War: Child Soldiers as Victims and Participants in the Sudan Civil War by C. Ryan London: IB Tauris, 2012. Pp. 320.£ 59.50 (hbk)." The Journal of Modern African Studies 51, no. 2 (2013): 367-369. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X13000293 |
| Ethnically heterogeneous countries | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ethnic diversity | This effect could be associated with a link between transborder groups causing conflict since societies with a higher number of transborder ethnic groups could be associated with greater ethnic heterogeneity. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Civil wars are conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations.The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references one article: Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Transnational Dimensions of Civil War." Journal of Peace Research 44, no. 3 (2007): 293–309. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27640512 |
| Presence of transnational ethnic groups | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ethnic diversity | Border-transgressing effects, such as external support by kin groups short of major military interventions, may also make ethnonationalist civil wars more likely. Given the highly asymmetric nature of such conflicts, which by definition feature non-state groups challenging well-armed governments, it can be expected that the former will seek support from related groups in neighboring countries. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil war spillover, where civil wars are defined as conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. While different definitions and criteria can lead to the inclusion or exclusion of particular events in different studies, this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations. The overview of scholarship in this area thus includes studies that apply different definitions of “civil war.” The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references two articles: Cederman, Lars-Erik, Luc Girardin, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Ethnonationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars." World Politics 61, no. 3 (2009): 403–437. https://muse.jhu.edu/article/266945 Weiner, Myron. "Security, Stability, and International Migration." International Security 17, no. 3 (1992): 91–126. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2539131 |
| Ethnolinguistic fractionalization | Dynamic risk factor | Demographic, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Ethnic diversity, Group identity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach." Journal of Political Economy 112 (2004): 725–53. https://doi.org/10.1086/421174 |
| Transnational mechanisms: ethnic kin | Static risk factor | Demographic, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ethnic diversity, Group identity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | The review references two entries: Saideman, Stephen M., and Erin K. Jenne. "The International Relations of Ethnic Conflict." In Handbook of War Studies III: The Intrastate Dimension, edited by Manus I. Midlarsky, 260–79. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2009. Cederman, Lars-Erik, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and Halvard Buhaug. Inequality, Grievances and Civil War. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013. |
| Countries with transnational ethnic kin | Static risk factor | Demographic, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ethnic diversity, Group identity | Transnational kin linkages can modify the effects of purely domestic resources, in the sense that groups with transnational kin are more likely to rebel than would be expected by their local size alone. Groups that are minorities in one state but dominant in another may develop irredentist claims and seek to join their kin in the "home" state. States may also be more likely to support ethnic kin in a neighbouring country if they have a rivalry with other countries. | Unspecified | Gleditsch (2007) finds that countries with transnational ethnic kin are more likely to see the outbreak of a civil war. Moreover, the positive effects of transnational ethnic kin in spreading conflict between states have generally been confirmed in other studies, and has been shown to be robust to a large number of alternative estimation methods. | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | An alternative to traditional binary distinctions is to approach individual conflicts as broader clusters that may fall somewhere along a spectrum from clearly domestic civil war to clearly international conflict, and may include a complex set of transnational interactions between non-state and state actors in multiple countries. | Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Civil War from a Transnational Perspective." Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. 28 Jun. 2017 https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.312 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | The literature review focuses on empirical and large-N comparative quantitative literature in conflict research, with some bias towards early influential studies that shaped the research agenda. | Nine articles are cited in support of this risk factor: Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Transnational Dimensions of Civil War." Journal of Peace Research 44, no. 3 (2007): 293–309. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343307076637 Cederman, Lars-Erik, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and Lucas Girardin. "Ethnic Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars." World Politics 61, no. 3 (2009): 403–437. https://www.prio.org/publications/4251 Saideman, Stephen M., and David R. Ayres. "Determining the Causes of Irredentism: Logit Analyses of Minorities at Risk Data from the 1980s and 1990s." Journal of Politics 62, no. 4 (2000): 1126–1144. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-3816.00049 Woodwell, David. "Unwelcome Neighbors: Shared Ethnicity and International Conflict During the Cold War." International Studies Quarterly 48, no. 1 (2004): 197–223. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0020-8833.2004.00297.x Bosker, Maarten, and Joris de Reed. "Ethnicity and the Spread of Civil War." Journal of Development Economics 108 (2014): 206–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.02.002 Buhaug, Halvard, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space." International Studies Quarterly 52, no. 2 (2008): 215–233. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2008.00499.x Carmignani, Fabio, and Paul Kler. "The Spillover of War in Time and Space: Exploring Some Open Issues." Applied Economics 49, no. 3 (2017): 273–288. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1197364 Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 Zhukov, Yuri M., and Benjamin M. Stewart. "Choosing Your Neighbors: Networks of Diffusion in International Relations." International Studies Quarterly 57, no. 2 (2013): 271–287. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343319881175 |
| Seeking to redress ethnic or religious grievances | Dynamic risk factor | Demographic, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ethnicity, Group identity | Scholars have argued that ethnic identity and religious identity function as a reference point for groups and form a “sense of collective injustice” in the wake of oppression, which can then be leveraged by organized insurgencies for recruitment (Gurr 2011). | The ideological orientation of each rebel group—classifying whether the group advocates for the protection of ethnic or religious rights (ethno-religious). The data collected is from a combination of media reports, scholarly work, reports from outside monitoring agencies, and primary materials from the rebel groups themselves. | Ethno-religious grievances are found to be a risk factor for women serving in supporting or noncombatant roles.Non-Islamic ethno-religious rebel movements are nearly four times more likely to include women in support roles compared to other rebel movements in a global dataset of seventy-two rebel groups. | Recruitment | Individual | The type of religious grievances seems to matter; In Islamist groups, the participation of women in support roles was observed in just over one-quarter of groups in the data set, while women were observed as combatants in only two of the eighteen armed Islamist groups. Among non-Islamist rebel movements that espoused an ethnic or religious grievance, nearly three-quarters employ women in support roles, and just over one-third utilize women in combat roles. This appears to confirm the observations that contemporary Islamist rebel movements incorporate women differently. Additionally, there appears to be some support for the hypothesis that ethnic or religious-based rebel movements utilize more women in support capacities, and restrict women to less visible combat roles, if combat is permitted at all. | Does not specify | Female | Henshaw (2016) uses a Global dataset. Thomas and Bond (2015) focused on Africa. | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study using cross-national and cross-regional data on women’s participation in seventy-two active rebel groups from 1990 to 2008. | The primary finding of the individual article, which finds that women are more likely to serve in supporting or noncombatant roles in organizations seeking to redress ethnic or religious grievances... At the same time, though, it does not appear that women act as combatants in many of these same movements. In other words, while movements seeking to redress ethnic and religious grievances seem to appeal to women and garner their support, these same movements may also constrain female participation in ways that reflect traditional gender roles. Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 Additionally, the author notes that this finding reinforces the recent work of Thomas and Bond (2015) on rebel groups in Africa: Thomas, Jakana and Kanisha Bond “Women’s Participation in Violent Political Organizations.” The American Political Science Review 109, no. 3 (2015): 488–506. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055415000313 |
| Transnational mechanisms: the demonstration effects of grievance-based conflicts caused by ethnic exclusion | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Exclusion/inclusion | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Spillover | Transnational, Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | The review references one article: Metternich, Nils W., Shahryar Minhas, and Michael D. Ward. 2017. “Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 61 (6): 1151-73. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715603452 |
| The spread of political and ethnic accommodation after the end of the Cold War, as well as improved conflict managment efforts | Dynamic protective factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Exclusion/inclusion | With regard to conflict, many of the domestic factors believed to be associated with conflict such as democracy or state strength, or even aspirations of territorial independence, are often strongly influenced by international factors and events elsewhere (Gleditsch, 2002). For example, some argue that civil war has declined after the end of Cold War due to a spread of political and ethnic accommodation as well as improved conflict management efforts, and that these changes within countries very much reflect international forces outside individual countries (see Cederman, Gleditsch, & Wucherpfennig, 2017; Gurr, 2000). Cederman, Gleditsch, & Wucherpfennig, 2017 state that: "Gurr argued that governments had become more willing to protect minority rights, manifested in a decrease of active discrimination, an increase in political autonomy, and greater accommodation of groups through power sharing." | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | An alternative to traditional binary distinctions is to approach individual conflicts as broader clusters that may fall somewhere along a spectrum from clearly domestic civil war to clearly international conflict, and may include a complex set of transnational interactions between non-state and state actors in multiple countries. | Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Civil War from a Transnational Perspective." Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. 28 Jun. 2017 https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.312 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | The literature review focuses on empirical and large-N comparative quantitative literature in conflict research, with some bias towards early influential studies that shaped the research agenda. | Two articles are cited in support of this protective factor: Cederman, Lars-Erik, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and Julian Wucherpfennig. "Predicting the Decline of Ethnic Civil War: Was Gurr Right and for the Right Reasons?" Journal of Peace Research 54, no. 2 (2017): 262–274. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316684191 Gurr, Ted Robert. "Ethnic warfare on the wane." Foreign Affairs (2000): 52-64. https://doi.org/10.2307/20049729 |
| Politically excluded group falls from power | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State, (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Exclusion/inclusion, (Loss/gain of) power | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | One article is cited in support. Group-level analysis revealed that groups that fell from power are particularly likely, among politically excluded groups, to rebel (in line with the qualitative findings of Petersen 2002), as are junior partners in a power-sharing coalition that represent a larger share of the population than senior partners—another way of violating the like-over-like principle of legitimacy introduced by nationalists: Cederman, Lars-Erik, Andreas Wimmer, and Brian Min. "Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis." World Politics 62, no. 1 (2010): 87–119. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887109990219 |
| Perceived threat against one's self and one's family members | Dynamic protective factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Individuals will mobilize in response to threat. If threat is perceived in a self-regarding way (i.e., to oneself and family members), rather than towards a collectivity, individuals will flee or hide, and not take up arms. Shesterinina (2021) argues that those who did not mobilize: prioritized threat to themselves or close family and friends and hid, fled, or defected to the stronger side. Whether they escaped the fighting alone or together reflected the self- or kin-protection motives behind their actions. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Abkhazia | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | The literature review mentions one article: Shesterinina, Anastasia. Mobilizing in Uncertainty: Collective Identities and War in Abkhazia. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2021. https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501753763/mobilizing-in-uncertainty/ |
| Lack of safety and security | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Armed groups offering safety and security, or if there is simply no safe alternative besides to joining one of the warring parties, results in women joining armed groups. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Female | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | Four articles are cited in support: Baines, Erin. “Forced Marriage as a Political Project: Sexual Rules and Relations in the Lord’s Resistance Army.” Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 3 (2014): 405–417. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313519666 Viterna, Jocelyn. Women in War: The Micro-Processes of Mobilization in El Salvador. 1st ed. New York: Oxford University Press, 2013. MacKenzie, Megan. Female Soldiers in Sierra Leone : Sex, Security, and Post-Conflict Development. New York: New York University Press, 2012. https://doi.org/10.18574/nyu/9780814761373.001.0001 Utas, Mats. “Victimcy, Girlfriending, Soldiering: Tactic Agency in a Young Woman’s Social Navigation of the Liberian War Zone.” Anthropological quarterly 78, no. 2 (2005): 403–430. https://doi.org/10.1353/anq.2005.0032 |
| Threats to family | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Viterna (2006, 2013) finds that “push” factors were particularly significant for women who had children at the time of the revolution | Does not specify | Female | El Salvador | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | One article and one book are cited in support: Viterna, Jocelyn S. “Pulled, Pushed, and Persuaded : Explaining Women’s Mobilization into the Salvadoran Guerrilla Army.” The American Journal of Sociology 112, no. 1 (2006): 1–45. https://doi.org/10.1086/502690 Viterna, Jocelyn. Women in War: The Micro-Processes of Mobilization in El Salvador. 1st ed. New York: Oxford University Press, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199843633.001.0001 |
| Threats to community | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Viterna (2006, 2013) finds that “push” factors were particularly significant for women who had children at the time of the revolution | Does not specify | Female | El Salvador | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | One article and one book are cited in support: Viterna, Jocelyn S. “Pulled, Pushed, and Persuaded : Explaining Women’s Mobilization into the Salvadoran Guerrilla Army.” The American Journal of Sociology 112, no. 1 (2006): 1–45. https://doi.org/10.1086/502690 Viterna, Jocelyn. Women in War: The Micro-Processes of Mobilization in El Salvador. 1st ed. New York: Oxford University Press, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199843633.001.0001 |
| Existence of a threat to human security | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Unspecified | Rates of physical integrity rights violations perpetrated by the state, including torture, beatings, disappearances, and murder, measured by the Political Terror Scale (PTS). | Threats to human security (proxied by the Political Terror Scale) do not appear to impact women’s participation in support roles, but they do decrease the likelihood that women will participate in combat | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Female | Global | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study using cross-national and cross-regional data on women’s participation in seventy-two active rebel groups from 1990 to 2008. | The primary finding of the individual article. Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 |
| Armed groups offer protection in contexts of insecurity | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Rationalist theorists have argued that these incentives help to overcome the 'collective action dilemma' - were individuals opt not to participate in armed groups because they will reap the benefits provided by the group if they win - without taking the risky action of joining. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One article is cited in support: Kalyvas, Stathis N, and Matthew Adam Kocher. “How ‘Free’ Is Free Riding in Civil Wars?: Violence, Insurgency, and the Collective Action Problem.” World Politics 59, no. 2 (2007): 177–216. https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2007.0023 |
| The risks of remaining a civilian becomes so great that it is more rational to pick a side and join an armed group | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Other factors around being risk-taking (such as sensation seeking) may be relevant in an environment were risk is clearly higher inside than outside an armed group. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One article is cited in support: Kalyvas, Stathis N., and Matthew Adam Kocher. "How 'Free' Is Free Riding in Civil Wars? Violence, Insurgency, and the Collective Action Problem." World Politics 59, no. 2 (2007): 177–216. https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2007.0023. |
| Having no other options or feel that getting involved in armed groups is the best of their bad options | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | The executive summary of this report states that: "The majority of children involved with armed forces and armed groups are not abducted or forced to join at gunpoint. Most become associated with armed actors due to various forms of desperation – they have no other options or feel that this is the best of their bad options." World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/it-takes-world/publication/no-choice-it-takes-world-end-use-child-soldiers |
| Armed groups provide girls with a sense of protection | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Some girls reported the sense that staying with the armed groups offered them protection because of associating with the armed group itself, but also because of now being married. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Marriage to members of armed groups | Children | Female | South Sudan | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | A primary finding of one study. World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf |
| The need for protection from various types of threats, including physical safety and protection from armed groups | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Trying to avoid being recruited into another group | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Fear, particularly if physically separated from family in displacement | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Reactions to socioeconomic and/or political injustices (i.e., grievance-based explanations of civil war) | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Feeling of (in)justice | Grievance-based accounts view internal conflict as a reaction to socioeconomic and/or political injustice. In contrast, explanations centering on greed make sense of civil war in terms of individuals’ desire to maximize their profits, primarily in a narrowly materialist sense. Arguing that motives are less important, a third logic seeks the causes of civil war in the opportunities that enable actors to engage in violent mobilization. | The review mentions imperfect proxies that have been dismissed by some researchers, including individualist demographic indicators, such as ethnolinguistic fractionalization or the Gini coefficient, because they lose sight of the fact that many civil wars are fought between ethnic groups. One notable measurement useful for grievance-based factors is Gurr's (1993) “Minorities at Risk” (MAR) data, which allowed to encompass both grievances and opportunity-related logics. To some extent, MAR's data capture group inequality and discriminatory state policies, but the failure to sample all ethnic groups, including many of the dominant ones, makes it difficult to draw safe inferences based on this data set. | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | The review references ten studies - Qualitative research provides support for this factor, and quantitative studies make have overlooked grievance explanations because of problems with accurate measurement. There has been much scholarship challenging these blanket assumptions around grievance-based effects, but the categorical dismissal of grievances as causes of war triggered criticism, especially since it seemed to contradict many qualitative accounts of how protest against injustice and inequality caused internal conflict. Rather than dismissing this logic per se, then, some researchers argued that the absence of evidence could be an artifact of imperfect proxies Sambanis, Nicholas. "Using Case Studies to Expand Economic Models of Civil War." Perspectives on Politics 2, no. 2 (2004): 259–79. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592704040149 Blattman, Christopher, and Edward Miguel. "Civil War." Journal of Economic Literature 48, no. 1 (2010): 3–57. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.48.1.3 Cramer, Christopher. "Does Inequality Cause Conflict?" Journal of International Development 15, no. 4 (2003): 397–412. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.992 Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Luc Girardin. "Beyond Fractionalization: Mapping Ethnicity onto Nationalist Insurgencies." American Political Science Review 101, no. 1 (2007): 173–85. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055407070086 Gellner, Ernest. Nations and Nationalism. Oxford, UK: Blackwell, 1983. Stewart, Frances, ed. Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: Understanding Group Violence in Multiethnic Societies. Houndmills, UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008. Østby, Gudrun. "Polarization, Horizontal Inequalities and Violent Civil Conflict." Journal of Peace Research 45, no. 2 (2008): 143–62. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343307087169 Gurr, Ted Robert. Minorities at Risk: A Global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1993. Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." The American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 Hug, Simon. "The Use and Misuse of the ‘Minorities at Risk’ Project." Annual Review of Political Science 16 (2013): 191–208. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-060512-142956 |
| Citizens perceive the distribution of resource rents to be unfair | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling of (in)justice | This may aggravate grievances, sparking conflict | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | Three articles are cited in support: Østby, Gudrun, Ragnhild Nordås, and Jan Ketil Rød. "Regional Inequalities and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa." International Studies Quarterly 53, no. 2 (2009): 301–24. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2009.00535.x Murshed, Mansoob, and Scott Gates. "Spatial-Horizontal Inequality and the Maoist Conflict in Nepal." Review of Development Economics 9, no. 1 (2005): 121–34. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2005.00267.x Humphreys, Macartan. "Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution: Uncovering the Mechanisms" Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, no. 4 (2005): 508–37. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002705277545 |
| Being a woman | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Female | Female rebels may provide tactical advantages as suicide bombers when women are less likely than men to be stopped, searched, or attract the suspicion of authorities | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Female | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | Three books and one report are cited in support of this risk factor. Mazurana, Dyan. "Women, Girls, and Non-State Armed Opposition Groups." In Women and Wars, edited by Cohn Carol, 146 – 68. Cambridge: Polity Press, 2013. Berko, Anat. The Smarter Bomb: Women and Children as Suicide Bombers. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2016. Bloom, Mia. Dying to Kill: The Allure of Suicide Terror. New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 2007 Zedalis, Debra D. Female Suicide Bombers. Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2004. |
| Being a woman when economic opportunity for women is limited | Dynamic risk factor | Demographic, (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Female, Financial incentive | One theory from the economic literature suggests that rebels’ primary motivation is based in individual, not collective, factors. Following the work of Olson (1965) and Popkin (1979), this theory posits that the promise of social goods alone will not be enough to overcome the collective action problem and push individuals to rebel; there must also be some individual incentive that motivates potential recruits ( Humphreys and Weinstein 2008 ; Collier 2007 ; Kalyvas and Kocher 2007). In this context, women without other opportunities would be more incentivized by the potential "selective incentives" from joining a rebel group. | Two indicators suggested (results using the first one were insignificant): Female labor-force participation (World Bank indicator): the percentage of all women in a country 15 years of age and older who are economically active, that is, “supplying labor for the production of goods and services." This is based on estimes from the International Labor Organization. Percent annual GDP growth for the first year of a civil war, and rates of female secondary school enrollment, to measure earning potential. | Rates of female participation in the labor force seem to have no relationship to levels of rebel activity. The inclusion of percent annual GDP growth, as reported by the World Bank, for the first year of a civil conflict also showed no statistically significant relationship to women’s participation. Likewise, rates of female secondary school enrollment as an indication of earning potential appeared to have no impact on women’s engagement in noncombat roles | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Female | Global | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study using cross-national and cross-regional data on women’s participation in seventy-two active rebel groups from 1990 to 2008. | The primary finding of the individual article. Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 |
| Economic insecurity and its influence on the household | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial (in)security | Economic drivers were reported by boys and girls in CAR and DRC in this study; the majority of respondents reported that their families’ livelihoods were destroyed by the conflict, and they had no access to basic needs, leaving them with few options. Caregivers emphasized that the economic and social drivers that influenced their child left them with “no choice”, even though they as caregivers had asked them not to go. | Unspecified | Economic drivers were reported by boys and girls in CAR and DRC; the majority of respondents reported that their families’ livelihoods were destroyed by the conflict, and they had no access to basic needs, leaving them with few options. | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children, Youth | Male and female | Ouham-Pendé, CAR and North Kivu, DRC | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Findings of a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews. Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS Global Public Health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1482629/v1 |
| Household economic instability | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial (in)security | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | South Sudan, CAR, DRC, and Colombia | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Two studies are cited in support: Hall, Erica. "No Choice: It takes a world to end the use of child soldiers." World Vis Int (2019). Utas, Mats. "Children of War: Child Soldiers as Victims and Participants in the Sudan Civil War by C. Ryan London: IB Tauris, 2012. Pp. 320.£ 59.50 (hbk)." The Journal of Modern African Studies 51, no. 2 (2013): 367-369. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X13000293 |
| Having alternative options for income generation | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial (in)security | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | One article is cited in support: Hall, Erica. "No Choice: It takes a world to end the use of child soldiers." World Vis Int (2019). |
| Individuals do not have legal economic opportunities to earn a living | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial (in)security | Individual participation in civil wars could be explained not by any heartfelt social or political motivation, but rather by access to the day wages or loot otherwise unavailable to them in the licit economy. Conceptually, this argument has the effect of treating conflict and insurgency as a kind of professional choice akin to criminal activity. Violent competition is little more than a struggle for economic resources by those who face a dearth of legal economic opportunities for earning a living. Poverty simply lowers individual incentives for maintaining law and order. Individuals do not have legal economic opportunities to earn a living, so they join armed groups for material reasons, such as gaining access to day wages and loot. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified. The review mostly focuses on how the process of identifying with any social group (class, party, gender, ethnicity, religion, etc.) could affect behavior, including violent behaviour. | Kalin, Michael, and Nicholas Sambanis. “How to Think About Social Identity.” Annual review of political science 21, no. 1 (2018): 239–257. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-042016-024408 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This review synthesizes recent scholarship that incorporates a social identity perspective on political behavior, from voting and redistribution to violence and conflict. | One article is cited in support of this risk factor: Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4 (2004): 563–95. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064 |
| Having economic and social capital | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Situation, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial (in)security, (Lack of) feeling of belonging | The activation of resources enables individuals with enough economic and social capital to prevent and/or escape recruitment (Luft 2015). Well-off families use money and social connections to send their children to “safe places” or to bring them back if they have joined already. Resources thus increase the agency of those who were better off, providing them with options to avoid participation not accessible to those less advantaged. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | This is one of the empirical findings of the article. One article is mentioned: Luft, Aliza. "Toward a Dynamic Theory of Action at the Micro Level of Genocide: Killing, Desistance, and Saving in 1994 Rwanda." Sociological Theory 33, no. 2 (2015): 148–72. https://doi.org/10.1177/0735275115587721. |
| Promise of money and security | Static risk factor | (Economic) Situation, (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial (in)security, Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | One article and one book are cited in support: Brett, Rachel, Margaret McCallin, and Rhona O’Shea. Children: Invisible Soldiers. Report on the Participation of Children in Armed Conflicts and International Disturbances and Tensions for the United Nation Study in the Impact of Armed Conflict on Children. Geneva: The Quaker United Nations Office, 1996. Wessells, Michael. Child Soldiers: From Violence to Protection. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2006. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1dv0trf |
| Parents push children to marry members of armed groups so that they can receive a dowry payment and manage economic hardship | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial (in)security, Social influence | Economic hardship prompts parents or elders to encourage their daughters to marry fighters so that they will receive a dowry from the male commander. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Some girls reported the sense that staying with an armed group offered them protection - because of associating with the armed group itself, but also because of being married. | Children | Female | South Sudan | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | A primary finding of one study. World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/it-takes-world/publication/no-choice-it-takes-world-end-use-child-soldiers |
| Lower cost of armed opposition against the state | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial incentive | Civil war spillover is thought to increase the risk of instability and conflict onset in other states by means of transmission, emulation, or both. Transmission risks arise largely from the tangible spillover that lowers the cost of armed opposition against the state, leads to miscommunication or misperception, or spurs unintended armed encounters. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Societal | The risk is highest in open autocracies in conflict-prone neighborhoods | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil war spillover, where civil wars are defined as conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. While different definitions and criteria can lead to the inclusion or exclusion of particular events in different studies, this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations. The overview of scholarship in this area thus includes studies that apply different definitions of “civil war.” The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references one article: Forsberg, Erika. 2014. “Transnational Transmitters: Ethnic Kinship Ties and Conflict Contagion 1946–2009.” International Interactions 40 (2): 143–65. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2014.880702 |
| The opportunity for personal enrichment | Static risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial incentive | One theory from the economic literature suggests that rebels’ primary motivation is based in individual, not collective, factors. Following the work of Olson (1965) and Popkin (1979), this theory posits that the promise of social goods alone will not be enough to overcome the collective action problem and push individuals to rebel; there must also be some individual incentive that motivates potential recruits (Humphreys and Weinstein 2008 ; Collier 2007 ; Kalyvas and Kocher 2007). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Economic literature suggests that the promise of social goods alone will not be enough to push individuals to rebel; there must also be individual incentives (such as personal enrichment). | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | Rationalist scholarship posits that an individual will join a rebellion if such actions provide the best opportunity for personal enrichment. Collier, Paul. “Economic Causes of Civil Conflict and Their Implications for Policy.” In Leashing the Dogs of War: Conflict Management in a Divided World, edited by Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall, 197 – 217. Washington, DC:US Institute of Peace, 2007. Humphreys, Macartan, and Jeremy M Weinstein. “Who Fights? The Determinants of Participation in Civil War.” American Journal of Political Science 52, no. 2 (2008): 436–455. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00322.x Kalyvas, Stathis N., and Matthew Adam Kocher. "How 'Free' Is Free Riding in Civil Wars? Violence, Insurgency, and the Collective Action Problem." World Politics 59, no. 2 (2007): 177–216. https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2007.0023 Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4 (2004): 563–95. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064 |
| Armed groups offer selective incentives, such as a salary or the possibility to loot | Static risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial incentive | Rationalist theorists have argued that these incentives help to overcome the 'collective action dilemma' - were individuals opt not to participate in armed groups because they will reap the benefits provided by the group if they win - without taking the risky action of joining. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One article is cited in support: Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. “Greed and Grievance in Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4 (2004): 563–595. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064 |
| Armed group membership including economic benefits like money, the opportunity to loot, or access to land | Static risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial incentive | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One article and two books are cited in support: Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 56 (2004): 563–95. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064 Keen, David. "Incentives and disincentives for violence." In: Berdal, Mats R, David Malone, Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars. Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder, Colo: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2000. Weinstein, Jeremy M. Inside Rebellion : The Politics of Insurgent Violence. Cambridge; Cambridge University Press, 2007. |
| The lure of easy money or not having to work a normal job | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial incentive | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Monetary incentives or status | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial incentive, Status/Power/Significance | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | South Sudan, CAR, DRC, and Colombia | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Two studies are cited in support: Hall, Erica. "No Choice: It takes a world to end the use of child soldiers." World Vis Int (2019). Utas, Mats. "Children of War: Child Soldiers as Victims and Participants in the Sudan Civil War by C. Ryan London: IB Tauris, 2012. Pp. 320.£ 59.50 (hbk)." The Journal of Modern African Studies 51, no. 2 (2013): 367-369. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X13000293 |
| Food security | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Food security/insecurity | Koren & Bagozzi (2016) argue that a limited availability of cropland / food insecurity would trigger conflict via competition for land. Their argument suggests that armed conflict is shaped by food insecurity concerns and not by an actual food insecurity. | Access to cropland measured as a percentage of an area with grid cell–level data for all African countries between 1997 and 2009. | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Koren, Ore, and Benjamin E. Bagozzi. "From Global to Local, Food Insecurity Is Associated with Contemporary Armed Conflicts." Food Security 8 (2016): 999–1010. http://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-016-0610-x |
| Availability of food | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Food security/insecurity | Koren & Bagozzi (2016) argue that having more cropland per person increases the availability of food and thus lowers conflict. Their argument suggests that armed conflict is shaped by food insecurity concerns and not by an actual food insecurity. | Availability of cropland per person measured with grid cell–level data for all African countries between 1997 and 2009. | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Koren, Ore, and Benjamin E. Bagozzi. "From Global to Local, Food Insecurity Is Associated with Contemporary Armed Conflicts." Food Security 8 (2016): 999–1010. http://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-016-0610-x |
| Receiving an increase in food aid as a developing country | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Foreign aid | Receiving an increase in US food aid as a developing country (The article specifically refers to US food aid) | Unspecified | US food aid to developing countries increases armed conflict incidence by approximately four percent for each ten-percent increase in food aid. | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Nunn, Nathan, and Nancy Qian. "U.S. Food Aid and Civil Conflict." American Economic Review 104, no. 6 (2014): 1630–1666. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.6.1630 |
| Increase in foreign aid flows | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Foreign aid | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced, finding no relationship between aid and an increased chance of a new conflict: de Ree, Joppe, and Eleonora Nillesen. "Aiding Violence or Peace? The Impact of Foreign Aid on the Risk of Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa." Journal of Development Economics 88, no. 2 (2009): 301–313. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2008.03.005 |
| Increase in potential availability of food aid | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Foreign aid | Warlords may optimize their recruitment and violence strategies to ensure that populations in their regions are poor and needy enough to persuade food agencies to allocate their resources there, therefore the potential food aid may create a risk for higher recruitment and violence. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Blouin, Max, and Stéphane Pallage. "Warlords, Famine and Food Aid: Who Fights, Who Starves?" European Journal of Political Economy 45 (2016): 18–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2016.09.002 |
| Receiving aid via the UN cash transfer program | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Foreign aid | Unspecified | Unspecified | Authors find a small negative impact of such aid on recruitment. | Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Syria | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Masterson, Daniel, and M. Christian Lehmann. "Refugees, Mobilization, and Humanitarian Aid: Evidence from the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Lebanon." Journal of Conflict Resolution 64, no. 5 (2020): 817–843. http://doi.org/10.1177/0022002719885176 |
| Foreign aid | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Foreign aid | Many explanations for aid as a protective factor are offered in this review, for some examples: Some of the earliest work on aid and civil war advances predation arguments, specifically citing the prize of state control. Elites in government have incentives to defend the state and its control over its resources; rebels have incentives to capture the state to acquire power and access to resources. Aid enters the equation as another set of resources. So long as the costs of violence are not sufficiently high, governments and rebels may choose to fight over those resources (Arcand & Chauvet 2001, Azam 1995, Grossman 1992). A corollary of this argument also focuses on predation but shifts the focus to potential direct rebel control of the aid resources. Aid often bypasses the government and becomes susceptible to capture by various actors. | Official Development Assistance (ODA) levels received by a country as a measure of public assistance—government bilateral or multilateral—that is administered to promote economic development and welfare and is concessional. | On the whole, the author contends that aid’s positive or negative effects are likely to be relatively small in comparison to other foreign policy options and financial flows, that the effects are difficult to detect at country-year levels and are more likely to be found at subnational and micro levels, and that these subnational and micro-level effects are probably not large direct effects but make a difference as moderators or are conditioned by other variables. | Onset | Transnational | The author notes some studies find that Aid's effects are conditional based on other variables. For example, predation arguments make most sense in contexts characterized by weak state institutions. Aid can be more dangerous to the extent that it is spatially concentrated or diffused such that the government cannot provide sufficient security (Strandow et al. 2016), or when aid is fungible such that the government can use it to fight the war (Findley et al. 2011). Although the bargaining theory of war has largely dominated most explanations, over the past decade there has been renewed interest in ethnicity and civil war (Cederman 2011); issues of ethnicity may shape aid allocation and effectiveness dynamics, a topic that has not received much attention ( Jablonski 2014). | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The review study focuses on how foreign aid impacts the dynamics and onset of civil war. The authors state that civil war broadly refers to the joint production of violence between a government and one or more opposition groups in which the number of battle-related deaths exceeds a stated threshold. They note that most scholars use 1,000 battle-related deaths to qualify as civil war. | Findley, Michael G. "Does foreign aid build peace?." Annual Review of Political Science 21, no. 1 (2018): 359-384. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041916-015516 | Academic | 2018 | Overall review | Narrative review of the literature on foreign aid and civil war | The author conducts a narrative review of studies focused on civil war onset, which establish six theories for why foreign aid might make civil war more likely and four theories for why foreign aid might make civil war less likely. The author concludes, "there is no simple argument that foreign aid should consistently ameliorate or exacerbate civil war. At each stage of a civil war, aid has been theorized to increase and decrease violence, potentially conditional on other factors. Numerous theoretical connections have been advanced, with little attention to sorting out which theories have more credible empirical support. |
| Foreign aid | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Foreign aid | Many explanations for aid as a protective factor are offered in this review, for some examples: Some researchers argue that aid influences some intermediate factor that, in turn, reduces the risk of civil war. A prominent thesis is that aid helps win the hearts and minds of the people (Beath et al. 2016), which may make them more supportive of the government and more willing to share information with counterinsurgents or the government (Berman et al. 2011, Weintraub 2016). A related logic is that aid’s effects on the economy may work via the government. Specifically, if continually provided, aid relaxes government budget constraints, which should have a positive impact on growth if expenditures are appropriate and effective (Collier & Hoeffler 2002, Miguel et al. 2004). More immediately, aid could be used to buy off rebels and/or distributed among civilians so as to thwart support for potential rebellion (Azam & Delacroix 2006, Azam & Mesnard 2003). Aid may also work through government channels to decrease the likelihood of civil war by enabling the government to deter opposition groups. Rather than creating a more enticing prize for potential rebels, a government bolstered by aid may signal its strength to defeat any rebellion,strength that discourages opposition groups from initiating such activity (Collier 2011, Collier & Hoeffler 2002). | Official Development Assistance (ODA) levels received by a country as a measure of public assistance—government bilateral or multilateral—that is administered to promote economic development and welfare and is concessional. | On the whole, the author contends that aid’s positive or negative effects are likely to be relatively small in comparison to other foreign policy options and financial flows, that the effects are difficult to detect at country-year levels and are more likely to be found at subnational and micro levels, and that these subnational and micro-level effects are probably not large direct effects but make a difference as moderators or are conditioned by other variables. | Onset | Transnational | The author notes some studies find that Aid's effects are conditional based on other variables: Aid is more effective at producing peace to the extent that it is distributed in areas of uncontested military control, securely controlled by government, and given at moderate levels for targeted activities (Berman et al. 2013, Sexton 2016). Other moderating factors, including regime type, may affect how nontax revenues affect the incentives for civil war (Paine 2016), and these factors could apply to foreign aid. And although the bargaining theory of war has largely dominated most explanations, over the past decade there has been renewed interest in ethnicity and civil war (Cederman 2011); issues of ethnicity may shape aid allocation and effectiveness dynamics, a topic that has not received much attention ( Jablonski 2014). Much of the conventional wisdom on aid effectiveness can be traced directly to Burnside & Dollar (2000), who theorize about good governance’s moderation of the effects of foreign aid on economic growth | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The review study focuses on how foreign aid impacts the dynamics and onset of civil war. The authors state that civil war broadly refers to the joint production of violence between a government and one or more opposition groups in which the number of battle-related deaths exceeds a stated threshold. They note that most scholars use 1,000 battle-related deaths to qualify as civil war. | Findley, Michael G. "Does foreign aid build peace?." Annual Review of Political Science 21, no. 1 (2018): 359-384. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041916-015516 | Academic | 2018 | Overall review | Narrative review of the literature on foreign aid and civil war | The author conducts a narrative review of more than 15 studies focused on civil war onset, which establish six theories for why foreign aid might make civil war more likely and four theories for why foreign aid might make civil war less likely. The author concludes, "there is no simple argument that foreign aid should consistently ameliorate or exacerbate civil war. At each stage of a civil war, aid has been theorized to increase and decrease violence, potentially conditional on other factors. Numerous theoretical connections have been advanced, with little attention to sorting out which theories have more credible empirical support. |
| Foreign aid being lootable | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Foreign aid | Some of the earliest work on aid and civil war advances predation arguments, specifically citing the prize of state control. Elites in government have incentives to defend the state and their control over its resources; rebels have incentives to capture the state to acquire power and access to resources. Aid enters the equation as another set of resources. So long as the costs of violence are not sufficiently high, governments and rebels may choose to fight over those resources. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Transnational | Predation arguments for foreign aids impact on civil war make most sense in contexts characterized by weak state institutions. Besley & Persson (2011) contend that while positive aid shocks amplify resources of interest to governments and oppositions, which may motivate them to invest in violence, countries with strong institutions can provide the proper checks and balances against such predation. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The review study focuses on how foreign aid impacts the dynamics and onset of civil war. The authors state that civil war broadly refers to the joint production of violence between a government and one or more opposition groups in which the number of battle-related deaths exceeds a stated threshold. They note that most scholars use 1,000 battle-related deaths to qualify as civil war. | Findley, Michael G. "Does foreign aid build peace?." Annual Review of Political Science 21, no. 1 (2018): 359-384. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041916-015516 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on foreign aid and civil war | Three studies are cited in support: Arcand, Jean-Louis, and Lisa Chauvet. "Foreign aid, rent-seeking behavior, and civil war." Understanding Poverty and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, Oxford (2001). Azam, Jean-Paul. “How to Pay for the Peace? A Theoretical Framework with References to African Countries.” Public Choice 83, no. 1/2 (1995): 173–184. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01047691 Grossman, Herschel I. “Foreign Aid and Insurrection.” Defence Economics 3, no. 4 (1992): 275–288. https://doi.org/10.1080/10430719208404737 |
| Large, sudden decreases in foreign aid (negative aid shocks) | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Foreign aid | Nielsen et al. (2011) contend that large, sudden decreases in aid (negative aid shocks)—whether coordinated by the donor community or not—upset the domestic balance of power among elites and citizens, making rebels more powerful relative to a government with less aid. Notably, when negotiating an end to conflict, the government must commit to future resource transfers to appease the rebels, but those promises are not credible because the shift in aid may prove temporary, paving the way for war to erupt once again. Dal Bo & Powell (2009) suggest a closely related alternative mechanism: In bad times (for example, when negative aid shocks occur), governments may offer assistance to opposition groups, but the opposition fears it is being “low-balled” and therefore rejects the deal in favor of violence. The general logic of these different scenarios is that bargains can avert war, and aid might directly contribute to bargaining success or failure depending on the circumstances. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The review study focuses on how foreign aid impacts the dynamics and onset of civil war. The authors state that civil war broadly refers to the joint production of violence between a government and one or more opposition groups in which the number of battle-related deaths exceeds a stated threshold. They note that most scholars use 1,000 battle-related deaths to qualify as civil war. | Findley, Michael G. "Does foreign aid build peace?." Annual Review of Political Science 21, no. 1 (2018): 359-384. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041916-015516 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on foreign aid and civil war | Two articles are cited in support: Nielsen, Richard A, Michael G Findley, Zachary S Davis, Tara Candland, and Daniel L Nielson. “Foreign Aid Shocks as a Cause of Violent Armed Conflict.” American Journal of Political Science 55, no. 2 (2011): 219–232. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00492.x Dal Bó, Ernesto, and Robert Powell. “A Model of Spoils Politics.” American Journal of Political Science 53, no. 1 (2009): 207–222. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00366.x |
| The proliferation of donors in the international community, sometimes referred to as donor fragmentation | Static protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Foreign aid | Researchers have suggested that the proliferation of donors in the international community, sometimes referred to as donor fragmentation, should reduce the risk of exposure to negative aid shocks, inasmuch as the actions of specific donors are less likely to dominate. In turn, donor fragmentation should reduce the risk of civil war outbreak (Gutting & Steinwand 2017) For example; evidence suggests that China may not follow the same rules as the international development community. Therefore, one could imagine that China provides a consistent presence, counteracting sanctioning initiated by traditional donors for corruption, repression, and violence. Theorizing about this possibility, Strange et al. (2017) contend that the presence of Chinese aid ameliorates the violence-inducing effects of negative aid shocks. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The review study focuses on how foreign aid impacts the dynamics and onset of civil war. The authors state that civil war broadly refers to the joint production of violence between a government and one or more opposition groups in which the number of battle-related deaths exceeds a stated threshold. They note that most scholars use 1,000 battle-related deaths to qualify as civil war. | Findley, Michael G. "Does foreign aid build peace?." Annual Review of Political Science 21, no. 1 (2018): 359-384. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041916-015516 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on foreign aid and civil war | Two article are cited in support: Strange, Austin M., Axel Dreher, Andreas Fuchs, Bradley Parks, and Michael J. Tierney. "Tracking underreported financial flows: China’s development finance and the aid–conflict nexus revisited." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 5 (2017): 935-963. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715604363 Gutting, Raynee, and Martin C. Steinwand. "Donor fragmentation, aid shocks, and violent political conflict." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 3 (2017): 643-670. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715595701 The author also notes that rab donors appear to be increasingly active in a number of conflict-prone countries - perhaps an example of donor fragmentation reducing the risk of exposure to negative aid shocks in supported countries - following the Arab Spring uprisings, though academic studies have yet to investigate the patterns closely |
| Foreign aid improving the quality of life for citizens of a recipient country | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Foreign aid | Aid may have an indirect effect on civil war because improvement in economic conditions has been associated with fewer grievances and higher opportunity costs to violence, making war less desirable (Collier & Hoeffler 2004b). Thus, even prior to war onset, aid may help governments secure the hearts and minds of people so that rebellion never gets traction. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country, Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The review study focuses on how foreign aid impacts the dynamics and onset of civil war. The authors state that civil war broadly refers to the joint production of violence between a government and one or more opposition groups in which the number of battle-related deaths exceeds a stated threshold. They note that most scholars use 1,000 battle-related deaths to qualify as civil war. | Findley, Michael G. "Does foreign aid build peace?." Annual Review of Political Science 21, no. 1 (2018): 359-384. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041916-015516 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on foreign aid and civil war | One article is cited in support: Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "Greed and grievance in civil war." Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4 (2004): 563-595. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064 |
| Foreign aid relaxing government budget constraints | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Foreign aid | If continually provided, aid relaxes government budget constraints, which should have a positive impact on growth if expenditures are appropriate and effective (Collier & Hoeffler 2002, Miguel et al. 2004). More immediately, aid could be used to buy off rebels and/or distributed among civilians so as to thwart support for potential rebellion (Azam & Delacroix 2006, Azam & Mesnard 2003). This argument relies on strong assumptions about the fungibility of aid. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country, Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The review study focuses on how foreign aid impacts the dynamics and onset of civil war. The authors state that civil war broadly refers to the joint production of violence between a government and one or more opposition groups in which the number of battle-related deaths exceeds a stated threshold. They note that most scholars use 1,000 battle-related deaths to qualify as civil war. | Findley, Michael G. "Does foreign aid build peace?." Annual Review of Political Science 21, no. 1 (2018): 359-384. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041916-015516 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on foreign aid and civil war | Two articles are cited in support for foreign aid improving economic growth: Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "Aid, policy and peace: Reducing the risks of civil conflict." Defence and Peace Economics 13, no. 6 (2002): 435-450. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690214335 Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. "Economic shocks and civil conflict: An instrumental variables approach." Journal of Political Economy 112, no. 4 (2004): 725-753. https://doi.org/10.1086/421174 Two articles are cited in support for foreign aid being used to buy off rebels and/or distributed among civilians so as to thwart support for potential rebellion: Azam, Jean‐Paul, and Alexandra Delacroix. "Aid and the delegated fight against terrorism." Review of Development Economics 10, no. 2 (2006): 330-344. Azam, Jean-Paul, and Alice Mesnard. "Civil war and the social contract." Public Choice 115, no. 3 (2003): 455-475. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024265631528 |
| Foreign aid during economic downturns | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Foreign aid, Development/contraction of the economy | Assistance to a government may generate greater stability during economic downturns, when civil wars are particularly likely to occur. Targeted aid at these moments may make political commitments between government and society more credible—and therefore less likely to break down into war (Savun & Tirone 2011). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Transnational, Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The review study focuses on how foreign aid impacts the dynamics and onset of civil war. The authors state that civil war broadly refers to the joint production of violence between a government and one or more opposition groups in which the number of battle-related deaths exceeds a stated threshold. They note that most scholars use 1,000 battle-related deaths to qualify as civil war. | Findley, Michael G. "Does foreign aid build peace?." Annual Review of Political Science 21, no. 1 (2018): 359-384. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041916-015516 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on foreign aid and civil war | One article is cited: Savun, Burcu, and Daniel C Tirone. “Exogenous Shocks, Foreign Aid, and Civil War.” International Organization 66, no. 3 (2012): 363–393. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818312000136 |
| Politicized disbursement of aid | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes, (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Foreign aid, Political grievances/satisfaction | Despite normative arguments in support of aid, studies demonstrate that aid allocation is not comprehensive, uniform, or fair. Aid is often politicized in ways that can exacerbate disparities and grievances along social cleavages, which in turn can result in rebellion. Jablonski (2014), for example, demonstrates that politicians often allocate aid to their coethnics, meaning that recipient political dynamics shape aid. By some accounts, the disparities and grievances may motivate civil violence (Esman & Herring 2003). Thus, aid may inadvertently cause war due to the politicized disbursement process. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The review study focuses on how foreign aid impacts the dynamics and onset of civil war. The authors state that civil war broadly refers to the joint production of violence between a government and one or more opposition groups in which the number of battle-related deaths exceeds a stated threshold. They note that most scholars use 1,000 battle-related deaths to qualify as civil war. | Findley, Michael G. "Does foreign aid build peace?." Annual Review of Political Science 21, no. 1 (2018): 359-384. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041916-015516 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on foreign aid and civil war | One book and one article are cited in support: Jablonski, Ryan S. “How Aid Targets Votes: The Impact of Electoral Incentives on Foreign Aid Distribution.” World Politics 66, no. 2 (2014): 293–330. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887114000045 Esman, Milton J., and Ronald J. Herring, eds. Carrots, sticks, and ethnic conflict: Rethinking development assistance. University of Michigan press, 2003. |
| Foreign aid during democratic transitions | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes, (Political) Moments | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Foreign aid, Regime transition | Assistance to a government may generate greater stability during democratic transitions when civil wars are particularly likely to occur. Targeted aid at these moments may make political commitments between government and society more credible—and therefore less likely to break down into war (Savun & Tirone 2012). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Transnational, Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The review study focuses on how foreign aid impacts the dynamics and onset of civil war. The authors state that civil war broadly refers to the joint production of violence between a government and one or more opposition groups in which the number of battle-related deaths exceeds a stated threshold. They note that most scholars use 1,000 battle-related deaths to qualify as civil war. | Findley, Michael G. "Does foreign aid build peace?." Annual Review of Political Science 21, no. 1 (2018): 359-384. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041916-015516 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on foreign aid and civil war | One article is cited: Savun, Burcu, and Daniel C Tirone. “Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict?” American Journal of Political Science 55, no. 2 (2011): 233–246. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00501.x |
| Foreign aid boosting state capacity | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes, (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Foreign aid, Strength rule of law/institutions | Foreign aid serves as a signal of a state's strength to defeat a rebellion: Aid may work through government channels to decrease the likelihood of civil war by enabling the government to deter opposition groups. Rather than creating a more enticing prize for potential rebels, a government bolstered by aid may signal its strength to defeat any rebellion, strength that discourages opposition groups from initiating such activity (Collier 2011, Collier & Hoeffler 2002). Aid may also boost state capacity to monitor and track rebels in the periphery, limiting rebel mobilization. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country, Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The review study focuses on how foreign aid impacts the dynamics and onset of civil war. The authors state that civil war broadly refers to the joint production of violence between a government and one or more opposition groups in which the number of battle-related deaths exceeds a stated threshold. They note that most scholars use 1,000 battle-related deaths to qualify as civil war. | Findley, Michael G. "Does foreign aid build peace?." Annual Review of Political Science 21, no. 1 (2018): 359-384. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041916-015516 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on foreign aid and civil war | One book and one article are cited in support: Collier, Paul. Wars, Guns and Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places. Random House, 2009. Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "Aid, policy and peace: Reducing the risks of civil conflict." Defence and Peace Economics 13, no. 6 (2002): 435-450. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690214335 |
| Wanting to take revenge | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Forgiveness/revenge | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | One article and one book are cited in support: Brett, Rachel, Margaret McCallin, and Rhona O’Shea. Children: Invisible Soldiers. Report on the Participation of Children in Armed Conflicts and International Disturbances and Tensions for the United Nation Study in the Impact of Armed Conflict on Children. Geneva: The Quaker United Nations Office, 1996. Wessells, Michael. Child Soldiers: From Violence to Protection. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2006. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1dv0trf |
| Seeking vengeance | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Forgiveness/revenge | Vengeance is also often a push factor. Children who have been abducted or tortured by one party to the conflict or have had family members killed by them can have an overwhelming desire for revenge and joining the opposing group or force is a means to this end. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | The study states that mental health and psychosocial support could help to prevent recruitment among children who wish to join armed groups for reasons of vengeance. | Children | No differentiation | Central African Republic, Iraq, the Democractic Republic of Congo and South Sudan. | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | The study states that vengeance as a risk factor is overwhelmingly true in Central African Republic, but also in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, the Democractic Republic of Congo and South Sudan. World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/it-takes-world/publication/no-choice-it-takes-world-end-use-child-soldiers |
| Desire to avenge the death of a loved one | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Forgiveness/revenge | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Social and economic crises associated with globalisation | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Globalization | Social and economic crises associated with globalisation lead to many low-income countries experiencing a widening of existing inequalities thereby straining and weakening the ‘social fabric'. Researchers argue that this has impacted the capacity of households and communities to nurture and protect children. Ultimately, this trend has resulted in the commodification of children, a revaluation that has brought about an increase in child labour, including child soldiering. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Transnational | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | One book is cited in support; Honwana, Alcinda. Child Soldiers in Africa. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1086/jar.63.3.20479439 |
| Ethnolinguistic between-group divisions | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Group identity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | The review references one article: Bormann, Nils-Christian, Lars-Erik Cederman, and Manuel Vogt. "Language, Religion, and Ethnic Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 4 (2017): 744–71. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715600755 |
| Religious identity differences overlap with language or economic cleavages in group identities | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Group identity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | If religious cleavages overlap with other identity cleavages in a society, there can be a greater risk for civil war, as there are fewer integrative bonds and larger social distance that can bridge different groups. Differences in status or positions between the groups can be multiplied if they are reinforced by several layers of identity cleavages | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews factors influencing the onset and dynamics of civil war and extremist intrastate conflict. The authors do not define these conflict types but refer to these terms interchangeably. | Svensson, Isak. “Civil War and Religion: An Overview.” In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.650 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review which examines the extent to which religious factors can explain the onset civil wars. The emphasis is primarily on the large-N quantitative research in this field, but examples of how religious dynamics play out in particular civil wars are mentioned as well. | One article is cited in support Basedau, Matthias, Birte Pfeiffer, and Johannes Vüllers. "Bad religion? Religion, collective action, and the onset of armed conflict in developing countries." Journal of Conflict Resolution 60, no. 2 (2016): 226-255. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002714541853 |
| Perceived threat against the collectivity | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Group identity, Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Individuals will mobilize in response to threat. If the narrative of a threat towards the collectivity resonates with them, they will mobilize to defend that collectivity. Shesterinina (2021) argues that: Framed as threatening across social structures in Abkhazia, the Georgian advance prompted mobilization by both armed and poorly armed or unarmed fighters, even in the areas were Georgia established control. Those whose understanding of conflict resonated with collective threat framing perceived a threat to their collectivity and mobilized to defend their families, localities, and the nation. The more their actions concerned the broader group, the more they reflected normative commitments beyond self-regarding concerns, because their group—outnumbered and militarily weak at the war’s onset—offered little prospect of security or success in the war. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Abkhazia | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | The literature review mentions one book: Shesterinina, Anastasia. Mobilizing in Uncertainty: Collective Identities and War in Abkhazia. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2021. https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501753763/mobilizing-in-uncertainty/ |
| Religious fractionalization, measured in terms of the number of religious groups | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Group identity, Ideology | Unspecified | Number of religious groups in a country | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews factors influencing the onset and dynamics of civil war and extremist intrastate conflict. The authors do not define these conflict types but refer to these terms interchangeably. | Svensson, Isak. “Civil War and Religion: An Overview.” In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.650 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review which examines the extent to which religious factors can explain the onset civil wars. The emphasis is primarily on the large-N quantitative research in this field, but examples of how religious dynamics play out in particular civil wars are mentioned as well. | One study is cited finding religious fractionalization, measured in terms of the number of religious groups, cannot account for higher (or lower) risk for civil war. Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war." American political science review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75-90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| Involvement in conflict by a religious group in one country increases the likelihood of conflict erupting in a nearby country that shares the same religious group (transnational ties) | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Psychosocial) Belonging, (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Group identity, Ideology, (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Shared groups across countries are likely to be inspired to increase their own demands. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One article is referenced in support of this effect: Fox, Jonathan. "Is Ethnoreligious Conflict a Contagious Disease?" Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 27, no. 2 (2004): 89–106. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100490275085 |
| Religion having close ties with the state, or the state showing favoritism | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging, (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Group identity, Political grievances/satisfaction | State favoritism in terms of preferences and unequal treatment of different religious groups within a country can be a way one group can manifest its domination and can create grievances that increase the risk of civil war | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews factors influencing the onset and dynamics of civil war and extremist intrastate conflict. The authors do not define these conflict types but refer to these terms interchangeably. | Svensson, Isak. “Civil War and Religion: An Overview.” In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.650 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review which examines the extent to which religious factors can explain the onset civil wars. The emphasis is primarily on the large-N quantitative research in this field, but examples of how religious dynamics play out in particular civil wars are mentioned as well. | Two articles are cited in support, finding that one of the fundamental conditions under which religion can influence the risk for armed conflicts is when religion has close ties with the state (Henne, 2012; Toft et al., 2011). Thus, religious freedom can be an underlying condition inducing the chances for peaceful development, and, by contrast, state favoritism for some particular religious groups over others can increase the risk for violence. Henne, Peter S. "The two swords: Religion–state connections and interstate disputes." Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 6 (2012): 753-768. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343312456225 Toft, Monica Duffy, Daniel Philpott, and Timothy Samuel Shah. God's century: Resurgent religion and global politics. WW Norton & Company, 2011. |
| Political and economic inequalities between ethnic groups spurring mass grievances | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Horizontal (in)equality | Cederman, Gleditsch, and Buhaug (2013) postulate that both political and economic inequalities spur mass grievances, which in turn increase the likelihood of mobilization and ultimately civil war outbreak. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | The review references one book: Cederman Lars-Erik, Gleditsch Kristian Skrede, Buhaug Halvard. 2013. Inequality, Grievances and Civil War. New York: Cambridge University Press. |
| A particular resource being controlled by only one group | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Horizontal (in)equality | This may aggravate grievances, sparking conflict | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | One article is cited in support: Wick, Katharina, and Erwin Bulte. "Contesting Resources: Rent Seeking, Conflict and the Natural Resource Curse." Public Choice 128, no. 3–4 (2006): 457–76. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-005-9010-z |
| Negative horizontal inequality (i.e. one group is significantly worse off than the rest of society) | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Horizontal (in)equality | Over time, this systematic discrimination is likely to lead to greater economic disparities between privileged and other groups. Another way to think about it is that the existence of institutionalized discrimination results in the creation of reinforcing cleavages. Reinforcing cleavages exist, for example, when the members of one ethnic group have significantly fewer resources and political power than members in another ethnic group. In a system like that, systems of oppression, domination or discrimination reinforce one another. The victims of systematic oppression are likely to blame their government for the discrimination against them, and, under some circumstances, this dissatisfaction among the members of the out groups will lead to rebellion (Cederman et al. 2013). | GDP per capita divided by the mean GDP per capita of the poorest group in society. | A regression analysis showed a significant effect on the risk of civil war - as inequality increases, the probability of avoiding civil war declines from about 87% at the lowest levels of inequality to about 75% at the highest levels. The author notes a 10% increase in the probability of civil war is quite significant given how rare civil war onset is. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Positive horizontal inequality (i.e an elite or rich class with more resources than everyone else) | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Horizontal (in)equality | Over time, this systematic discrimination is likely to lead to greater economic disparities between privileged and other groups. Another way to think about it is that the existence of institutionalized discrimination results in the creation of reinforcing cleavages. Reinforcing cleavages exist, for example, when the members of one ethnic group have significantly fewer resources and political power than members in another ethnic group. In a system like that, systems of oppression, domination or discrimination reinforce one another. The victims of systematic oppression are likely to blame their government for the discrimination against them, and, under some circumstances, this dissatisfaction among the members of the out groups will lead to rebellion (Cederman et al. 2013). | The mean GDP per capita of the richest group divided by the country GDP per capita. | A regression analysis showed no significant effect on the risk of civil war. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Inequality (i.e., a large group of people being discriminated against in society) | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Horizontal (in)equality | The victims of systematic oppression are likely to blame their government for the discrimination against them, and, under some circumstances, this dissatisfaction among the members of the out groups will lead to rebellion (Cederman et al. 2013). | The percentage of a country’s population that is made up of the largest discriminated group. | A regression analysis showed a significant effect on the risk of civil war. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Dominance of one ethnic group | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Horizontal (in)equality | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Literature review of an individual study examining the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | The literature review refers to one article in support of this risk factor: Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "On the incidence of civil war in Africa." Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, no. 1 (2002): 13-28. https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027020460010 |
| Income inequality | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Horizontal (in)equality | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | One article is cited in support: Humphreys, Macartan, and Jeremy M. Weinstein. "Who Fights? The Determinants of Participation in Civil War." American Journal of Political Science 52, no. 2 (2008): 436–455. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00322.x |
| Income inequality | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Horizontal (in)equality | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | One article is cited in support: Muller, Edward N., and Mitchell A. Seligson. "Inequality and Insurgency." American Political Science Review 81, no. 2 (1987): 425–451. https://doi.org/10.2307/1961960 |
| Being part of an ethnic group that is poorer or richer than the country’s average income | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation, Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Horizontal (in)equality, Ethnic diversity | Both political and economic inequalities spur mass grievances, which in turn increase the likelihood of mobilization and ultimately civil war outbreak | Ethnic group power access measured by the Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) data set documents all politically relevant ethnic groups and their power access since WWII. This factor uses EPR's geocoded data on ethnic settlement areas to extend the study of political exclusion to economic inequality. | Unspecified | Onset | Community | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | The review references one article: Cederman, Lars-Erik, Nils B. Weidmann, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Horizontal Inequalities and Ethno-Nationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison." American Political Science Review 105, no. 3 (2011): 478–95. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055411000207 |
| Economic inequality | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Horizontal (in)equality, Vertical (in)equality | The grievance-based explanation for rebellion suggests that once a threshold of deprivation is crossed due to this inequality, individuals will be driven to rebel. | Unspecified | This is identified as one of the principal sources of grievance in the literature which might lead an individual to join a rebel group. The grievance-based explanation for rebellion suggests that once a threshold of deprivation is crossed due to inequality, individuals will be driven to rebel. | Recruitment | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | Four articles/book chapters are cited in support: Davis, Jessica. “Evolution of the Global Jihad: Female Suicide Bombers in Iraq.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 36, no. 4 (2013): 279–291. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2013.763598 Humphreys, Macartan, and Jeremy M Weinstein. “Who Fights? The Determinants of Participation in Civil War.” American Journal of Political Science 52, no. 2 (2008): 436–455. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00322.x Collier, Paul. “Economic Causes of Civil Conflict and Their Implications for Policy.” In Leashing the Dogs of War: Conflict Management in a Divided World, edited by Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall, 197 – 217. Washington, DC:US Institute of Peace, 2007. Frances, Stewart and Brown Graham. “Motivations for Conflict: Groups and Individuals.” In Leashing the Dogs of War: Conflict Management in a Divided World, edited by Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall, 219 – 41. Washington, DC:US Institute of Peace, 2007. |
| Exposure to high levels of (indiscriminate) repression | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | The literature review mentions two articles: Goodwin, Jeff. No Other Way Out: States and Revolutionary Movements, 1945–1991. Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics. Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511812125 Kalyvas, Stathis N., and Matthew Adam Kocher. "How 'Free' Is Free Riding in Civil Wars? Violence, Insurgency, and the Collective Action Problem." World Politics 59, no. 2 (2007): 177–216. https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2007.0023 |
| Government "disappearances" of citizens | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | (Bell et al. 2013) These coercive techniques may create more citizen dissatisfaction (grievance) than other types of violations of physical integrity rights, because citizens perceive political imprisonment and disappearances as the direct result of the deliberate policy choices of politicians. The authors of the article also add that the use of extrajudicial killing and disappearance would be most closely related to subsequent political violence by citizens if extreme forms of coercion generate the most intense grievances against the government. | State of physical integrity rights in a country (torture, disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and political imprisonment), which are captured by two different measures: the Political Terror Scale, an ordinal scale ranging from 0 to 5, and the Physical Integrity Index, an ordinal scale with ranges from 0 to 8, from the CIRI Human Rights Data Project and updated by the CIRIGHTS Data Project using the CIRI methodology. | A regression analysis showed a significant effect on the risk of civil war. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 The authors' explanation for this finding was supported by one article: Bell, Sam R, David Cingranelli, Amanda Murdie, and Alper Caglayan. “Coercion, Capacity, and Coordination: Predictors of Political Violence.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 30, no. 3 (2013): 240–262. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894213484032 |
| Governments refraining from engaging in "disappearances" of citizens | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Bell et al. (2013) argue that these coercive techniques may create more citizen dissatisfaction (grievance) than other types of violations of physical integrity rights, because citizens perceive political imprisonment and disappearances as the direct result of the deliberate policy choices of politicians. Therefore, governments refraining from engaging in "disappearances" would have lower risk of conflict. | State of physical integrity rights in a country (torture, disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and political imprisonment), which are captured by two different measures: the Political Terror Scale, an ordinal scale ranging from 0 to 5, and the Physical Integrity Index, an ordinal scale with ranges from 0 to 8, from the CIRI Human Rights Data Project and updated by the CIRIGHTS Data Project using the CIRI methodology. | A regression analysis showed that when governments refrain from engaging in disappearances they are significantly less likely to experience civil war. | Onset | Country | The authors of this article also add that the use of disappearances would explain subsequent political violence by citizens, or refraining from disappearances explaining subsequently less violence, if extreme forms of coercion generate the most intense grievances against the government. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| A country having a high respect for physical integrity rights | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | The authors cite, Goodwin (2001), which concludes that state repression creates the belief among the population that there is “no other way out” besides armed revolt against an unjust and abusive regime. | Respect for physical integrity rights in a country, as measured by the CIRI+CIRIGHTS Human Rights data project physical integrity rights index score, were "high" is a score of five or higher, and low indicates a score of four or lower. | A regression analysis showed that physical integrity rights had a significant negative effect on the risk of civil war. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 The authors' explanation for this finding was supported by one article: Bell, Sam R., David Cingranelli, Amanda Murdie, and Alper Caglayan. "Coercion, capacity, and coordination: Predictors of political violence." Conflict Management and Peace Science 30, no. 3 (2013): 240-262. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894213484032 |
| Extrajudicial killings | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | The authors of the article argue that the use of extrajudicial killing and disappearance would be most closely related to subsequent political violence by citizens if we assume that extreme forms of coercion generate the most intense grievances against the government | State of physical integrity rights in a country (torture, disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and political imprisonment), which are captured by two different measures: the Political Terror Scale, an ordinal scale ranging from 0 to 5, and the Physical Integrity Index, an ordinal scale with ranges from 0 to 8, from the CIRI Human Rights Data Project and updated by the CIRIGHTS Data Project using the CIRI methodology. | A regression analysis showed a significant effect on the risk of civil war. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Political imprisonment | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | The authors argue that if the desire for political violence is stimulated the most when governments use the most visible forms of physical integrity violations, then we would expect to find that political imprisonment would be most closely related to subsequent political violence by citizens | State of physical integrity rights in a country (torture, disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and political imprisonment), which are captured by two different measures: the Political Terror Scale, an ordinal scale ranging from 0 to 5, and the Physical Integrity Index, an ordinal scale with ranges from 0 to 8, from the CIRI Human Rights Data Project and updated by the CIRIGHTS Data Project using the CIRI methodology. | A regression analysis showed a significant effect on the risk of civil war. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| The government torturing people | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | State of physical integrity rights in a country (torture, disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and political imprisonment), which are captured by two different measures: the Political Terror Scale, an ordinal scale ranging from 0 to 5, and the Physical Integrity Index, an ordinal scale with ranges from 0 to 8, from the CIRI Human Rights Data Project and updated by the CIRIGHTS Data Project using the CIRI methodology. | A regression analysis showed a significant effect on the number of civil war deaths, but no effect on the risk of civil war occurring. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Respect for women’s rights | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | There are a number of arguments about why repression of women’s rights leads to greater violence against the state. Most of them rest on some variation of grievance theory. For example, Murdie and Peksen (2015, p. 182) argue that when a government does not respect women’s economic or political rights, it is likely that the capabilities of a woman in that nation greatly differ from her expectations, either with a reference category of the male counterparts in the country or with a reference category of what women outside of her country are receiving. Thus, she is more likely to have grievances consistent with relative deprivation theory (Gurr 1968). Caprioli (2005) agrees with this argument. However, she goes further by contending that greater political and economic discrimination by males against females in a society is an indication of a greater willingness by the state to use domination against most, if not all, subordinate groups. From this perspective, low respect for women’s rights is a proxy for low respect for minority rights of all kinds. | Respect for women's rights in a country, measured through an additive scale of women’s economic and women’s political rights from the CIRI and CIRIGHTS Human Rights Data Projects. | Violations of women’s rights were found to be drivers of processes that led to civil war. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Freedom of association and assembly | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | Levels of freedom of association and assembly in a country, a civil and political rights measurement taken from the CIRI and CIRIGHTS database and coded as ordinal measures ranging from 0 (widespread violations) to 2 (no violations). | No significant effect was found on civil war risk. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Freedom of foreign movement | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | Freedom of foreign movement in a country, a civil and political rights measurement taken from the CIRI and CIRIGHTS database and coded as ordinal measures ranging from 0 (widespread violations) to 2 (no violations). | No significant effect on the risk of civil war. | Onset | Country, Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Freedom of speech and press | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Respect for freedom of speech and press allows citizens to express and to aggregate their grievances. | Freedom of speech and press in a country, a civil and political rights measurement taken from the CIRI and CIRIGHTS database and coded as ordinal measures ranging from 0 (widespread violations) to 2 (no violations). | No significant effect on the risk of civil war. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Violations of physical integrity rights | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Literature review of an individual study examining the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | The literature review refers to one article to support this risk factor: Regan, Patrick M., and Daniel Norton. "Greed, grievance, and mobilization in civil wars." Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, no. 3 (2005): 319-336. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002704273441 |
| State repression | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | State repression creates the belief among the population that there is “no other way out” besides armed revolt against an unjust and abusive regime. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Literature review of an individual study examining the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | The literature review refers to one book to support this risk factor: Goodwin, Jeff. No Other Way Out: States and Revolutionary Movements, 1945-1991. Cambridge University Press, 2001. |
| Indiscriminate state violence against civilian populations | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Indiscriminate state violence against civilian populations generates grievances and pushes civilians into the arms of opposition actors | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Literature review of an individual study examining the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | The literature review refers to two articles to support this risk factor: Mason, T. David, and Dale A. Krane. 1989. "The Political Economy of Death Squads: Toward a Theory of the Impact of State-Sanctioned Terror." International Studies Quarterly 33: 175–98. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600536 Kalyvas, Stathis N., and Matthew Adam Kocher. 2007. "How 'Free' is Free Riding in Civil Wars? Violence, Insurgency, and the Collective Action Problem." World Politics 59: 177–216. https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2007.0023 |
| Improvements in societal gender equality or women’s rights | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | There are a number of arguments about why repression of women’s rights leads to greater violence against the state. Most of them rest on some variation of grievance theory. For example, Murdie and Peksen (2015, p. 182) argue that when a government does not respect women’s economic or political rights, it is likely that the capabilities of a woman in that nation greatly differ from her expectations, either with a reference category of the male counterparts in the country or with a reference category of what women outside of her country are receiving. Thus, she is more likely to have grievances consistent with relative deprivation theory (Gurr 1968). Caprioli (2005) agrees with this argument. However, she goes further by contending that greater political and economic discrimination by males against females in a society is an indication of a greater willingness by the state to use domination against most, if not all, subordinate groups. From this perspective, low respect for women’s rights is a proxy for low respect for minority rights of all kinds. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Literature review of an individual study examining the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | The literature review refers to two articles in support of this protective factor: Caprioli, Mary. "Primed for violence: The role of gender inequality in predicting internal conflict." International Studies Quarterly 49, no. 2 (2005): 161-178. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0020-8833.2005.00340.x Melander, Erik. "Political gender equality and state human rights abuse." Journal of Peace Research 42, no. 2 (2005): 149-166. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343305050688 |
| A general climate of government repression in one's community | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Country | Viterna (2006, 2013) finds that “push” factors were particularly significant for women who had children at the time of the revolution | Does not specify | Female | El Salvador | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | One article and one book are cited in support: Viterna, Jocelyn S. “Pulled, Pushed, and Persuaded : Explaining Women’s Mobilization into the Salvadoran Guerrilla Army.” The American Journal of Sociology 112, no. 1 (2006): 1–45. https://doi.org/10.1086/502690 Viterna, Jocelyn. Women in War: The Micro-Processes of Mobilization in El Salvador. 1st ed. New York: Oxford University Press, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199843633.001.0001 |
| Government atrocities inflicted on family and/or community | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Government atrocities inflicted at either the family or community-level generated an attitude of defiance and moral outrage that later impacted an individual’s decision whether to support the rebellion during the Salvadoran Civil War. In the context of Wood (2003), "participation" which might mean active military participation or more logistical support (food, water, and military intelligence). Wood is careful to note that she does not believe that protection from the government was the primary motivating factor for many men and women who joined the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN), but she acknowledges that it was a relevant consideration for some ( Wood 2003, 120). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Community | Unspecified | Does not specify | Female | El Salvador | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | One book is cited in support: Wood, Elisabeth Jean. Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808685 |
| Rebel movements offer women the promise of overcoming gender-based exclusion, including the specific promise to broaden civic and political rights for women | Static risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | When we consider how political grievances might attract women to armed opposition groups, an interesting complexity arises. Women may be facing two overlapping forms of discrimination: they may be marginalized as members of the excluded political group, and also may be further marginalized because of their gender. Taken to its logical end, then, the notion of political grievance would predict that, for women, a discourse that merely promises access to the system for members of the movement would not be a sufficient motivator. Rather, those movements most successful at attracting women would offer women the promise of overcoming gender-based exclusion as well, including the specific promise to broaden civic and political rights for women. | The ideological orientation of each rebel group—classifying whether the group advocates political rights for women (women’s rights). The data collected is from a combination of media reports, scholarly work, reports from outside monitoring agencies, and primary materials from the rebel groups themselves. | Political grievances, in particular promises of greater rights or political access for women, have no significant relationship to the presence of women in rebel groups. This suggests that women do not join armed rebellions to attain greater political rights. It is found that women are more likely to be involved in both support and combat roles were rebel movements adopt a platform of gender equality. However, the very small sample size is problematic: only four rebel movements (of seventy-two) openly adopted a platform of gender equality - likely resulting in an insignificant results. | Recruitment | Individual | Women may be facing two overlapping forms of discrimination: they may be marginalized as members of the excluded political group, and also may be further marginalized because of their gender. Therefore, movements most successful at attracting women would offer women the promise of overcoming gender-based exclusion, including the specific promise to broaden civic and political rights for women. | Does not specify | Female | Global | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study using cross-national and cross-regional data on women’s participation in seventy-two active rebel groups from 1990 to 2008. | The primary finding of the individual article. Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 |
| Increasing state repression of incipient dissent | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Many researchers have noted a divergence in outcomes after the Arab Spring, were some of the conservatives monarchies appeared to successfully prevent a diffusion of mass mobilization by increasing state repression of incipient dissent or introducing limited reforms (Mathiesen, 2013; White, Vidovic, Gonzalez, Gleditsch, & Cunningham, 2015) | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Middle East and North Africa (countries part of the Arab Spring). | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | An alternative to traditional binary distinctions is to approach individual conflicts as broader clusters that may fall somewhere along a spectrum from clearly domestic civil war to clearly international conflict, and may include a complex set of transnational interactions between non-state and state actors in multiple countries. | Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Civil War from a Transnational Perspective." Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. 28 Jun. 2017 https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.312 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | The literature review focuses on empirical and large-N comparative quantitative literature in conflict research, with some bias towards early influential studies that shaped the research agenda. | Two articles are cited in support of this protective factor: Mathiesen, Thomas. Sectarian Gulf: Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the Arab Spring That Wasn't. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2013. https://www.sup.org/books/middle-east-studies/sectarian-gulf White, Peter B., Dragana Vidovic, Belén González, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and David E. Cunningham. "Nonviolence as a Weapon of the Resourceful: From Claims to Tactics in Mobilization." Mobilization: An International Journal 20, no. 4 (2015): 471–91. https://doi.org/10.17813/1086-671X-20-4-471 |
| Real or perceived threat of the state | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Defiance in the face of repression and loss | Static risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights, (Psychosocial) Emotions | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect, Forgiveness/revenge, Major life event | Unspecified | Unspecified | In her study of peasant involvement in El Salvador, Wood (2003) finds that the primary reasons for active participation in the violent conflict were effectively nonmaterial and largely performative. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | El Salvador | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified. The review mostly focuses on how the process of identifying with any social group (class, party, gender, ethnicity, religion, etc.) could affect behavior, including violent behaviour. | Kalin, Michael, and Nicholas Sambanis. “How to Think About Social Identity.” Annual review of political science 21, no. 1 (2018): 239–257. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-042016-024408 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This review synthesizes recent scholarship that incorporates a social identity perspective on political behavior, from voting and redistribution to violence and conflict. | One study is cited in support of this risk factor: Wood, Elisabeth Jean. Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2003. |
| Ideas about human rights and equal opportunity leading to political mobilization of minorities; combined with restrictions on formal political rights of minority members at the national level and poverty at the group level | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights, (Political) Legitimacy of the State, (Psychosocial) Belonging, (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect, Treatment of minorities, Group identity, Vertical (in)equality | The spread of global ideas about human rights and equal opportunity into a national political arena leads to political mobilization of minorities; if this combines with restrictions on formal political rights of minority members at the national level and poverty at the group level, mobilization might well turn into violent conflict. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country, Societal | Ideas about human rights and equal opportunities combine with restricted political rights and group-level poverty | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | One book is cited in support: Olzak, Susan. The Global Dynamics of Race and Ethnic Mobilization. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2006. |
| Church as a site of resistance | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Drawing from their high social standing due to their engagement in social welfare and civilian protection, religious leaders had some space to criticize LTTE policies and sometimes used this leverage to resist recruitment. Religious orphanages, for example, provided spaces from which children could not be forcibly recruited, and parents sometimes dropped their children off there to make sure they could not join (Gowrinathan and Mampilly 2019:15). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Community | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The empirical findings are supported by one article: Gowrinathan, Nimmi, and Zachariah Mampilly. “Resistance and Repression under the Rule of Rebels.” Comparative Politics 52, no. 1 (2019): 1–20. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26782426 |
| Believing in what they are fighting for | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | One article and one book are cited in support: Brett, Rachel, Margaret McCallin, and Rhona O’Shea. Children: Invisible Soldiers. Report on the Participation of Children in Armed Conflicts and International Disturbances and Tensions for the United Nation Study in the Impact of Armed Conflict on Children. Geneva: The Quaker United Nations Office, 1996. Wessells, Michael. Child Soldiers: From Violence to Protection. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2006. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1dv0trf |
| Desire of an armed group to prove the universality of their cause | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Some armed groups consider child recruitment to be an act of social inclusion that unequivocally proves the universal character of their cause. As such, the participation of children is seen as a huge moral and political victory: it represents the group’s capacity to incorporate new social layers | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | Two articles are cited in support. Ferro Medina, Juan Guillermo, Graciela Uribe Ramón, and Charles Capela. “El orden de la guerra. Las FARC-EP: entre la organización y la política.” Caravelle, 2003. http://journals.openedition.org/revestudsoc/26356 Gutiérrez-Sanín, Francisco. "Organizing Minors: The Case of Colombia." In Child Soldiers in the Age of Fractured States, edited by Scott Gates and Simon Reich, 121–140. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2010. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt5vkgp3.13 |
| Armed opposition groups espousing a leftist or redistributive ideology | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | The author argues that economic grievances matter as a motivating factor for armed group recruitment, which groups espousing a leftist or redistributive ideology are more likely to access. | The ideological orientation of a rebel group—classifying whether the group advocates for economic redistribution (redistributive). The data collected is from a combination of media reports, scholarly work, reports from outside monitoring agencies, and primary materials from the rebel groups themselves. | Among all redistributive rebel movements in the sample, the vast majority (84 percent) involved women in support roles, while just over half (53 percent) utilized women in combat operations. Additionally, three groups in the sample had a Marxist or socialist focus: Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF), Party for Freedom and Life in Kurdistan (PJAK), and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). All three had significant numbers of female participants during the sample time period. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Female | Henshaw (2016) uses a Global dataset Other cited articles are not specified to a region. | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study using cross-national and cross-regional data on women’s participation in seventy-two active rebel groups from 1990 to 2008. | The primary finding of the individual article. Additionally, the author cites one book and one article that focus on economic grievances as motivating factors for armed group recruitment: Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 Whaley, Eager Paige. From Freedom Fighters to Terrorists. Farnham, UK : Ashgate, 2008 Cunningham, Karla J. “Cross-Regional Trends in Female Terrorism.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 26, no. 3 (2003): 171–195. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100390211419 |
| Ideology/agreement with the cause of the armed group | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Religious fractionalization | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Psychosocial) Belonging, Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Group identity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach." Journal of Political Economy 112 (2004): 725–53. https://doi.org/10.1086/421174 |
| Religion as a collective identity marker | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Group identity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews factors influencing the onset and dynamics of civil war and extremist intrastate conflict. The authors do not define these conflict types but refer to these terms interchangeably. | Svensson, Isak. “Civil War and Religion: An Overview.” In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.650 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review which examines the extent to which religious factors can explain the onset civil wars. The emphasis is primarily on the large-N quantitative research in this field, but examples of how religious dynamics play out in particular civil wars are mentioned as well. | One article and one book are cited; (Seul 1999) finds that religion can serve as a collective identity marker, while (Thomas, 2005) shows support for this risk factor by finding religious identities can be harder to compromise than other types of identity markers, Seul, Jeffrey R. “‘Ours Is the Way of God’: Religion, Identity, and Intergroup Conflict.” Journal of Peace Research 36, no. 5 (1999): 553–569. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343399036005004 Thomas, Scott. The global resurgence of religion and the transformation of international relations: The struggle for the soul of the twenty-first century. New York: Springer, 2005. |
| Being out of school | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | In school/drop-out | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | de Vise-Lewis: Democratic Republic of Congo | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | The study cites two reports in support of this risk factor: de Vise-Lewis, Emma, Stefano Schwarz, and Bavon Mupenda. Tug of War: Children and Armed Groups in DRC. War Child and Child Frontiers, 2018. https://www.warchild.net/documents/58/Tug-Of-War_Children_in_Armed_Groups_in_DRC.pdf O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| A negative commodity Terms of Trade (the ratio between the index of export prices and the index of import prices) shock | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Increase/decrease in trade | The impact of a commodity Term of Trade shock is larger in countries with higher inequality and limited fiscal capacity. The former effect is consistent with the opportunity cost channel (lower employment or lower pay could incentivize individuals to participate in non-productive activities such as violence), whereas the latter supports the state capacity channel (lower national income leads to lower government revenue, weakening its capacity to prevent conflict or mitigate its economic fallout). | The ratio between the index of export prices and the index of import prices as measured by the commodity Terms of Trade Index (Gruss and Kebhaj, 2019), which covers 182 economies. | The paper says "A negative Term of Trade (ToT) shock significantly increases the incidence and intensity of conflict as measured by the number of conflict events. Our estimates indicate that a negative shock equivalent to one percent of GDP leads to an increase of 0.05 conflict events per one million people. The estimate of 0.05 events per one million people can explain 1.6 percent of the average conflict incidences that countries in our sample experience. Notably, the explanatory power of ToT shocks is twice as large for Low-Income Countries (LICs) and Fragile and Conflict-affected States (FCS)." Furthermore, the paper finds that "the impact of a commodity ToT shock is larger in countries with higher inequality and limited fiscal capacity." [...] ". Looking at the relative explanatory power of various variables to model fiscal capacity, we find that external debt is more relevant than fiscal balance and domestic debt." | Onset | Country | The impact of a commodity Term of Trade shock is larger in countries with higher inequality and limited fiscal capacity (i.e., external debt). | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sample made of 133 low and middle-income countries. The sample excludes high-income countries according to the World Bank’s GNI per capita classification (above USD 12,535 in 2020). | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The paper uses the definition of conflict from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Events Dataset (UCDP GED) (Sundberg and Melander, 2013), which defines conflict events as incidences of the use of armed force by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians that result in at least one direct death. The UCDP GED thus contains information on three types of organized violence: violence between two organized actors of which at least one is the government of a state, violence between actors of which neither party is the government of a state, and lastly, violence against unarmed civilians perpetrated by organized non-state groups or governments. | Leepipatpiboon, Patcharaporn, et al. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Conflict. IMF Working Papers WP/23/68." (2023): https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/03/18/Macroeconomic-Shocks-and-Conflict-531101 | Grey literature | 2023 | Overall review | This paper contributes to the research on the macroeconomic origins of conflict. Based on a sample of 133 low and middle-income countries over a 30-year period, it analyses to what extent changes in a country’s commodity terms-of-trade (ToT) can explain an increase in the incidence and intensity of conflicts through their effect on aggregate income. | Overall review |
| A negative commodity Terms of Trade (the ratio between the index of export prices and the index of import prices) shock | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Increase/decrease in trade | Unspecified | The ratio between the index of export prices and the index of import prices as measured by the commodity Terms of Trade Index (Gruss and Kebhaj, 2019), which covers 182 economies. | The paper, which also explores the spillover effects from Term of Trade shocks to conflicts in neighboring countries, "finds that the number of conflict events increases in a statistically significant way within two to three years of the initial shock" in neighbouring countries. | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sample made of 133 low and middle-income countries. The sample excludes high-income countries according to the World Bank’s GNI per capita classification (above USD 12,535 in 2020). | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The paper uses the definition of conflict from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Events Dataset (UCDP GED) (Sundberg and Melander, 2013), which defines conflict events as incidences of the use of armed force by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians that result in at least one direct death. The UCDP GED thus contains information on three types of organized violence: violence between two organized actors of which at least one is the government of a state, violence between actors of which neither party is the government of a state, and lastly, violence against unarmed civilians perpetrated by organized non-state groups or governments. | Leepipatpiboon, Patcharaporn, et al. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Conflict. IMF Working Papers WP/23/68." (2023): https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/03/18/Macroeconomic-Shocks-and-Conflict-531101 | Grey literature | 2023 | Overall review | This paper contributes to the research on the macroeconomic origins of conflict. Based on a sample of 133 low and middle-income countries over a 30-year period, it analyses to what extent changes in a country’s commodity terms-of-trade (ToT) can explain an increase in the incidence and intensity of conflicts through their effect on aggregate income. | Overall review |
| Refugee presence | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Integration of migrants/refugees | Refugees exit the state because of a direct experience of persecution or political violence and therefore may have strong grievances. Refugees living in squalid camp conditions have very low opportunity costs for joining rebel organizations; doing so may offer a better quality of life and a sense of purpose. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment, Spillover | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil war spillover, where civil wars are defined as conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. While different definitions and criteria can lead to the inclusion or exclusion of particular events in different studies, this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations. The overview of scholarship in this area thus includes studies that apply different definitions of “civil war.” The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references one article: Salehyan, Idean. "Transnational Rebels: Neighboring States as Sanctuary for Rebel Groups." World Politics 59, no. 2 (2007): 217–242. https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2007.0024 |
| Presence of refugees | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Integration of migrants/refugees | Refugees may increase the level of grievance for local populations as the refugees compete (or are perceived to compete) for jobs and scarce governmental resources, upset a fragile ethnic balance, or otherwise spark a political crisis (Weiner, 1992). | Unspecified | The presence alone of refugees in a country has been found to increase the likelihood of civil war onset (Salehyan & Gleditsch, 2006), and the presence of such refugees can have particular effects on domestic actors. | Spillover | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil war spillover, where civil wars are defined as conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. While different definitions and criteria can lead to the inclusion or exclusion of particular events in different studies, this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations. The overview of scholarship in this area thus includes studies that apply different definitions of “civil war.” The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references two articles: Salehyan, I., and K. S. Gleditsch. "Refugees and the Spread of Civil War." International Organization 60, no. 2 (2006): 335–366. https://labordoc.ilo.org/permalink/41ILO_INST/uf9g4h/cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_59757168 Weiner, Myron. "Security, Stability, and International Migration." International Security 17, no. 3 (1992): 91–126. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2539131 |
| The internet making civil war more contagious through the dissemination of information via the web, and indirectly, through the recruitment of foreign soldiers | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Internet | The Islamic State and al Qaeda, for example, use Internet propaganda to recruit foreign fighters from around the world. These fighters then come to active war zones, receive training, indoctrination, and experience, and eventually return home, creating new networks in their native countries. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover, Onset, Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil wars, especially recent wars incited by rebel groups espousing extreme ideologies. While the author does not define an instrumental measurement for civil wars, they rely primarily on datasets from the Uppsala Conflict Data Project (UCDP). | Walter, Barbara F. “The New New Civil Wars.” Annual review of political science 20, no. 1 (2017): 469–486. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-060415-093921 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on civil war. | The article cites four articles as evidence that civil war is contagious across borders, the authors contend that the internet would theoretically make this contagion more transferable: Salehyan, Idean, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. “Refugees and the Spread of Civil War.” International organization 60, no. 2 (2006): 335–366. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818306060103 Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. “Transnational Dimensions of Civil War.” Journal of peace research 44, no. 3 (2007): 293–309. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343307076637 Salehyan, Idean. “Transnational Rebels: Neighboring States as Sanctuary for Rebel Groups.” World politics 59, no. 2 (2007): 217–242. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343307076637 Kathman, Jacob D. “Civil War Contagion and Neighboring Interventions.” International studies quarterly 54, no. 4 (2010): 989–1012. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2010.00623.x |
| Competition for access to land | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Land access/(un)availability | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Community | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Kenya | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced which does not find support for this risk factor. High population density is associated with more conflict, but the author attributes this to stressors other than the competition for land. Theisen, Ole Magnus. "Climate Clashes? Weather Variability, Land Pressure, and Organized Violence in Kenya, 1989–2004." Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 1 (2012): 81–96. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311425842 |
| Land pressure - share of an area with intensive agriculture/cropland divided by population | Static risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Land access/(un)availability | Unspecified | Agricultural and cropland land pressure (share of a geographic cell with intensive agriculture/cropland divided by population). | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Kenya | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | The review refers to one article: Theisen, Ole Magnus. "Climate Clashes? Weather Variability, Land Pressure, and Organized Violence in Kenya, 1989–2004." Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 1 (2012): 81–96. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311425842 |
| Landlessness | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Land access/(un)availability | Unspecified | Landlessness is measured by agricultural households without land as a proportion of the total labor force. | The only completely irrelevant variable in several of Muller and Mitchell's analytic models is landlessness - which shows no association with conflict. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | One article is cited which does not find support for this risk factor: Muller, Edward N., and Mitchell A. Seligson. "Inequality and Insurgency." American Political Science Review 81, no. 2 (1987): 425–451. https://doi.org/10.2307/1961960 |
| Land inequality | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation, (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Land access/(un)availability, Discrimination | Unspecified | Land inequality is measured by the Gini coefficient of land concentration. A weighted index of land is used by combining the geometric mean of the Gini coefficient (expressed as a percentage) and the percentage of the labor force employed in agriculture in 1970. | Land inequality affects income inequality and, therefore, is indirectly relevant to political violence, but does not have any direct effect on political violence. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | One article is cited which finds only indirect support for this risk factor: Muller, Edward N., and Mitchell A. Seligson. "Inequality and Insurgency." American Political Science Review 81, no. 2 (1987): 425–451. https://doi.org/10.2307/1961960 |
| Scarcity of agriculturally productive land when agricultural wages decline | Static risk factor | (Economic) Activity, (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Land access/(un)availability, Salary increase/decrease | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | a sample of 27 largest Indian states in 1956–2002 | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | The review refers to one article: Urdal, Henrik. "People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation, and Armed Conflict Revisited." Journal of Peace Research 42, no. 4 (2005): 417–34. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343305054089 |
| Experiencing issues around access to land and land property rights | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Land access/reform | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Côte d’Ivoire. | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Minoiu, Camelia, and Olga N. Shemyakina. "Armed Conflict, Household Victimization, and Child Health in Côte d'Ivoire." Journal of Development Economics 108 (2014): 237–255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.03.003 |
| Land degradation | Dynamic risk factor | (Environmental) Preservation/Degradation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Land degradation/preservation | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global sample in 1980–92 | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | The review references one study: Hauge, Wenche, and Tanja Ellingsen. "Beyond Environmental Scarcity: Causal Pathways to Conflict." Journal of Peace Research 35, no. 3 (1998): 299–317. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343398035003003 |
| Very high levels of land degradation | Dynamic risk factor | (Environmental) Preservation/Degradation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Land degradation/preservation | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global sample in 1979–2001 | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | The review refers to one study: Theisen, Ole Magnus. "Blood and Soil? Resource Scarcity and Internal Armed Conflict Revisited." Journal of Peace Research 45, no. 6 (2008): 801–18. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343308096157 "Theisen (2008), however, shows – more convincingly than Hauge & Ellingsen (1998) – that only very high levels of land degradation increase civil conflict risk, while water scarcity has no effect at all." |
| Being an orphan | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Major life event | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo and Iraq | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | A primary finding of one study. World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/it-takes-world/publication/no-choice-it-takes-world-end-use-child-soldiers |
| Third parties intervene to prevent diffusion through mediation, coercive diplomacy, interventions or sanctions | Dynamic protective factor | (Political) Interference | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mediation | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | Two articles are referenced, which finds that states intervene to prevent diffusion to high-interest regions, but notes that such attempts have been under-studied thus far. Kathman, Jacob D. "Civil war Contagion and Neighboring Interventions." International Studies Quarterly 54, no. 4 (2010): 989-1012. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2010.00623.x Kathman, Jacob D. "Civil war Diffusion and Regional Motivations for intervention." Journal of Conflict Resolution 55, no. 6 (2011): 847-876. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002711408009 |
| Rejection from the national military | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Military service | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Moral individuals that hold fast to their ideas, values, institutions, and relationships (determination) | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Moral/values | Determination denotes principled non-participation choices. Individuals do not join a militant group as they believe that would contradict the way they think they ought to live or the kind of person they want to be (Laidlaw 2002). If the behavior or the political ideas propagated by the rebel group challenged or violated values that were central to respondents, they were less likely to identify with and join the group. Determination is thus a form of political action born in moral individuals that hold fast to their ideas, values, institutions, and relationships (Amarasuriya et al. 2020). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | Empirical findings from the article and two supporting articles: Laidlaw, James. "For an Anthropology of Ethics and Freedom." The Journal of the Royal Anthropological Institute 8, no. 2 (2002).: 311–32. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3134477 Amarasuriya, Harini, Tobias Kelly, Sidharthan Maunaguru, Galina Oustinova-Stjepanovic, and Jonathan Spencer. The Intimate Life of Dissent: Anthropological Perspectives. London: UCL Press, 2020. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctv13xprk8 |
| Peacekeeping efforts - which frequently include securing borders, preventing large-scale refugee flows, and assisting repatriation | Dynamic protective factor | (Security) Institutions | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Peacekeeping efforts | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One article supports the notion that peacekeeping decreases the risk of diffusion. Beardsley, Kyle. "Peacekeeping and the Contagion of Armed Conflict." Journal of Politics 73, no. 4 (2011): 1051–64. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381611000764 |
| Peaceful protest | Dynamic protective factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Political grievances/satisfaction | Effective peaceful protests and subsequent accommodative policies may have the potential to prevent the eruption of violence in the first place | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | Two sources are cited in support: Chenoweth, Erica, and Maria J. Stephan. Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict. New York: Columbia University Press, 2011. White, Peter B., Dragana Vidovic, Belén González, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and David E. Cunningham. "Nonviolence as a Weapon of the Resourceful: From Claims to Tactics in Mobilization." Mobilization: An International Journal 20, no. 4 (2015): 471–91. https://doi.org/10.17813/1086-671X-20-4-471 |
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| Accommodative policies to respond to nonviolent protests | Dynamic protective factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Political grievances/satisfaction | Accommodative policies may have the potential to prevent the eruption of violence in the first place | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Community | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | Two sources are cited in support: Chenoweth, Erica, and Maria J. Stephan. Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict. New York: Columbia University Press, 2011. White, Peter B., Dragana Vidovic, Belén González, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and David E. Cunningham. "Nonviolence as a Weapon of the Resourceful: From Claims to Tactics in Mobilization." Mobilization: An International Journal 20, no. 4 (2015): 471–91. https://doi.org/10.17813/1086-671X-20-4-471 |
| Countries with no latent grievances (characteristic of country that is a potential target of diffusion) | Dynamic protective factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Political grievances/satisfaction | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One book finds that conflict primarily spreads to those states which are already at risk of conflict and is, conversely, less likely to spread to countries with no latent grievances. Lake, David A., and Donald Rothchild. "Spreading Fear: The Genesis of Transnational Ethnic Conflict." In The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation, edited by David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild, 3–30. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998. |
| Leaders fostering lasting good relationships with their population, especially with youth | Dynamic protective factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Political grievances/satisfaction, (Lack of) trust in institutions | Unspecified | Unspecified | From the Bangura study: 87% of all categories of respondents stated that Touré remains the most popular and loved leader in the history of Guinea. | Spillover | Country | According to the interviewees, Guinean youth had a sense of identity, recognition, and inclusion, defined by their perception of being actively involved and engaged in Touré's anti-Western struggle. Whilst perceptions of elite corruption and capture were rife in Sierra Leone and Liberia by the 1970s, with the lack of exposure and inability to assess and question the existing system, such perceptions only became prevalent amongst Guinean youth in the late 1990s and early 2000s, with the growing economic decline and poverty under Conté. | Youth, Adults | No differentiation | Guinea | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article uses Gersovite and Kriger's (2013) definition of civil war and defines it as the following "a politically organized, large-scale, sustained, physically violent conflict that occurs within a country principally among large/numerically important groups of its inhabitants or citizens over the monopoly of physical force within the country. Civil wars usually have incumbent governments that control the state and have a monopoly of force before the civil war and challengers." | Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | The study employed an ethnographic approach with 232 semi-structured questionnaires administered to 129 male and 103 female respondents between the ages of 18 and 35 years. An additional 264 questionnaires were administered to 151 male and 113 female respondents between the ages of 36 and 60 years. Data were collected from August to November 2016 and from January to March 2018, when follow-up interviews were done with some of the respondents. Additionally, 31 government officials, 10 academics, 18 security and peacebuilding experts, and 59 civil society actors were either interviewed or participated in focus group discussions (FGDs) in all the locations studied. The actors engaged were selected based on their experience working for youth-related Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) of the Government of Guinea, experts in security and peacebuilding-related issues, or they worked for youth-focused civil society organisations, especially during the conflicts in the region. | Finding of the primary article Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 The overall findings of this study show that leaders in Guinea, unlike those in Sierra Leone and Liberia, interacted with their youth, which led them to be popular amongst the population. |
| Refugees with grievances toward their countries of origin (or the host state) | Static risk factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State, Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Political grievances/satisfaction, Demographic changes (incl. Migration/Forced diplacement) | Refugee populations can affect the likelihood of conflict in a host state directly through mobilization. Refugees with grievances toward their countries of origin (or the host state) may have stronger reasons to mobilize, on top of which they face few opportunity costs to joining an armed group (Zolberg et al., 1989). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment, Spillover | Community | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil war spillover, where civil wars are defined as conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. While different definitions and criteria can lead to the inclusion or exclusion of particular events in different studies, this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations. The overview of scholarship in this area thus includes studies that apply different definitions of “civil war.” The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references one article: Zolberg, Aristide R., Astri Suhrke, and Sergio Aguayo. Escape from Violence: Conflict and the Refugee Crisis in the Developing World. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989. |
| High population density | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Population density/size/growth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Kenya | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Theisen, Ole Magnus. "Climate Clashes? Weather Variability, Land Pressure, and Organized Violence in Kenya, 1989–2004." Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 1 (2012): 81–96. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311425842 |
| Higher population compared to average (using an African sample over many years) | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Population density/size/growth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach." Journal of Political Economy 112 (2004): 725–53. https://doi.org/10.1086/421174 |
| Areas of country with a larger population | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Population density/size/growth | Countries with larger population are more likely to contain some group willing to rebel. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil war spillover, where civil wars are defined as conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. While different definitions and criteria can lead to the inclusion or exclusion of particular events in different studies, this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations. The overview of scholarship in this area thus includes studies that apply different definitions of “civil war.” The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references one article: Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Transnational Dimensions of Civil War." Journal of Peace Research 44, no. 3 (2007): 293–309. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27640512 |
| The size of the orphan population within countries | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience, Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Population density/size/growth, Age, Major life event | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Country | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | One report and one article are cited in support; Brett, Rachel, Margaret McCallin, and Rhona O’Shea. Children: Invisible Soldiers. Report on the Participation of Children in Armed Conflicts and International Disturbances and Tensions for the United Nation Study in the Impact of Armed Conflict on Children. Geneva: The Quaker United Nations Office, 1996. Tynes, Robert, and Bryan R. Early. "Governments, rebels, and the use of child soldiers in internal armed conflicts: A global analysis, 1987–2007." Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 21, no. 1 (2015): 79-110. https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2014-0001 One article does not find a significant relationship: Achvarina, Vera, and Simon Reich. “No Place to Hide: Refugees, Displaced Persons, and the Recruitment of Child Soldiers.” International Security 31, no. 1 (2006): 127–164. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec.2006.31.1.127 |
| The demographic size of religious groups | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Psychosocial) Belonging, Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Population density/size/growth, Group identity, Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews factors influencing the onset and dynamics of civil war and extremist intrastate conflict. The authors do not define these conflict types but refer to these terms interchangeably. | Svensson, Isak. “Civil War and Religion: An Overview.” In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.650 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review which examines the extent to which religious factors can explain the onset civil wars. The emphasis is primarily on the large-N quantitative research in this field, but examples of how religious dynamics play out in particular civil wars are mentioned as well. | One study is cited finding that demographic size of religious groups does not predict civil war Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "Greed and grievance in civil war." Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4 (2004): 563-595. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064 |
| The demographic size of religious groups | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Psychosocial) Belonging, Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Population density/size/growth, Group identity, Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article reviews factors influencing the onset and dynamics of civil war and extremist intrastate conflict. The authors do not define these conflict types but refer to these terms interchangeably. | Svensson, Isak. “Civil War and Religion: An Overview.” In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.650 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review which examines the extent to which religious factors can explain the onset civil wars. The emphasis is primarily on the large-N quantitative research in this field, but examples of how religious dynamics play out in particular civil wars are mentioned as well. | Two studies are cited, which find that the demographic size of religious groups is an important predictor for civil war. Ellingsen, Tanja. "Colorful community or ethnic witches' brew? Multiethnicity and domestic conflict during and after the cold war." Journal of Conflict Resolution 44, no. 2 (2000): 228-249. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002700044002004 Reynal-Querol, Marta. "Ethnicity, political systems, and civil wars." Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, no. 1 (2002): 29-54. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002702046001003 |
| High per capita income | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Rainfall shocks as a proxy to measure per capita income. However, such indicator should only rely on regions in which rainfall significantly affects output, moslty sub-Saharan Africa. Rainfall shocks do not work well outside the sub-Saharan sample or, indeed, even over more recent time periods for sub-Saharan Africa. | Unspecified | Onset | Country | The author notes that there are also important omitted variables to be contended with. Both low per capita income and conflict could be the joint outcome of weak political institutions. Djankov & Reynal-Querol (2010) argue that country-specific historical factors are highly significant in explaining both conflict and weak institutions and that they render nonsignificant the role of low per capita income. Besley & Reynal-Querol (2014) find that local conflicts over the past few centuries are highly significant in explaining today’s civil wars, as well as today’s development outcomes. Ashraf & Galor (2013) and Arbath et al. (2015) argue that genetic diversity explains both the level of development and social conflict. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). They also note more generally, we cannot discard the possibility that the empirical results capture more the explicit outbreaks of civil war, whereas, in reality, there could be active sources of discontent that do not always come to fruition in the form of multiple deaths and overt conflict. | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Overall review | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | According to the authors, this is a result that appears and reappears in the literature, especially in large-scale cross-country studies of conflict (see, e.g., Collier & Hoeffler 1998, 2004a,b; Fearon & Laitin 2003a; Hegre & Sambanis 2006). The author's note: Even this seemingly robust finding is fraught with difficulties of interpretation. Although there is no doubting the correlation between these two variables, there is also little doubt that countries with a history of active conflict are likely to be poor or that there are omitted variables, such as the propping up of a dictatorship by international intervention or support, that lead to both conflict and poverty. Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "On Economic Causes of Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 50 (1998): 563–73. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/50.4.563 Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 56 (2004a): 563–95. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064 Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "Conflicts." In Global Crises, Global Solutions, edited by Bjørn Lomborg, 129–55. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2004b. Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003a): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 Hegre, Håvard, and Nicholas Sambanis. "Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset." Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (2006): 508–35. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002706289303 |
| Higher GDP per capita compared to average (using an African sample over many years) | Static protective factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach." Journal of Political Economy 112 (2004): 725–53. https://doi.org/10.1086/421174 |
| Being a poorer society where there is lower opportunity cost for conflict | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | The opportunity cost argument, going back to Becker (1968) and Ehrlich (1973) and echoed in Skaperdas (1992), Hirshleifer (1995), Grossman & Kim (1995), Dal Bo & Dal Bo (2011), and Miguel et al. (2004), emphasizes the fact that conflict and production are often alternative choices. In poorer societies, engaging in the alternative of productive labor has a low payoff. So there could be a greater incentive to participate in conflict. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | 7 studies are cited as supporting the opportunity cost argument for conflict; Becker, Gary S. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach." Journal of Political Economy 76 (1968): 169–217. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-62853-7_2 Ehrlich, Isaac. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation." Journal of Political Economy 81 (1973): 521–65. https://doi.org/10.1086/260058 Skaperdas, Stergios. "Cooperation, Conflict, and Power in the Absence of Property Rights." American Economic Review 82 (1992): 720–39. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2117341 Hirshleifer, Jack. "Anarchy and Its Breakdown." Journal of Political Economy 103 (1995): 26–52. https://doi.org/10.1086/261974 Grossman, Herschel I., and Minho Kim. "Swords or Plowshares? A Theory of the Security of Claims to Property." Journal of Political Economy 103 (1995): 1275–88. https://doi.org/10.1086/601453 Dal Bo, Ernesto, and Pedro Dal Bó. "Workers, Warriors, and Criminals: Social Conflict in General Equilibrium." Journal of the European Economic Association 9 (2011): 646–77. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01025.x Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach." Journal of Political Economy 112 (2004): 725–53. https://doi.org/10.1086/421174 |
| Community-level poverty | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Community | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | South Sudan, CAR, DRC, and Colombia | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Two studies are cited in support: Hall, Erica. "No Choice: It takes a world to end the use of child soldiers." World Vis Int (2019). Utas, Mats. "Children of War: Child Soldiers as Victims and Participants in the Sudan Civil War by C. Ryan London: IB Tauris, 2012. Pp. 320.£ 59.50 (hbk)." The Journal of Modern African Studies 51, no. 2 (2013): 367-369. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X13000293 |
| The state's poverty level | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Poverty/Wealth | Researchers assert poverty may be a causal risk factor - that many young soldiers enlist in an attempt to ‘counter [their] feelings of helplessness, vulnerability and frustration’. However, as others contend, this explanation is too simplistic: there are many more poor children who do not become child soldiers, even in war zones | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Country | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | Four books/reports are cited in support Machel, Graça. Impact of Armed Conflict on Children. New York:UNICEF, 1996. https://childrenandarmedconflict.un.org/1996/08/1996-graca-machel-report-impact-armed-conflict-children/ Honwana, Alcinda. Child Soldiers in Africa. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1086/jar.63.3.20479439 Cohn, Ilene, and Guy Goodwin-Gill. Child Soldiers: The Role of Children in Armed Conflict. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1994 https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198259350.001.0001. Singer, Peter Warren. Children at War. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2006. https://www.pwsinger.com/children-at-war/ One source argues against this risk factor, contending that this explanation is too simplistic: there are many more poor children who do not become child soldiers, even in war zones. Achvarina, Vera, and Simon Reich. “No Place to Hide: Refugees, Displaced Persons, and the Recruitment of Child Soldiers.” International Security 31, no. 1 (2006): 127–164. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec.2006.31.1.127 |
| Poverty | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | One article is cited in support: Humphreys, Macartan, and Jeremy M. Weinstein. "Who Fights? The Determinants of Participation in Civil War." American Journal of Political Science 52, no. 2 (2008): 436–455. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00322.x |
| Poverty | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | One article is cited in support: Muller, Edward N., and Mitchell A. Seligson. "Inequality and Insurgency." American Political Science Review 81, no. 2 (1987): 425–451. https://doi.org/10.2307/1961960 |
| Poverty and lack of basic necessities | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Interviews with former child soldiers supported by World Vision child protection programming in South Sudan found that for older children economic factors and lack of basic necessities influenced the decision to join, or, were children were abducted, the decision to stay. Barracks provided a basic sleeping mat and availability of food at a more regular rate than many had in their homes, particularly after active hostilities in their local area destroyed homes, farms and food sources. | Unspecified | Economic drivers ranked very high for children’s recruitment in all of the countries involved in the study. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | Male and female | Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Colombia, South Sudan, Iraq | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | The study states that economic drivers ranked very high for children’s recruitment in all of the countries involved in the study. In conflict settings, resources like food and shelter can become scarce. Families in DRC struggle to feed themselves when they return home after being displaced only to find fallow fields and their livestock seized or killed. Disruption to economic activities, such as farming, may leave parents turning to children to help to provide for the family’s basic needs. World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/it-takes-world/publication/no-choice-it-takes-world-end-use-child-soldiers |
| Poverty | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Being a region more open to trade | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Protectionism/free trade | Regions more open to trade are more responsive to outside price shocks to their income and are thus more likely to experience conflict due to a subsequently lower opportunity cost argument of conflict | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Transnational | Regions more open to trade are more responsive to outside price shocks to their income and are thus more likely to experience conflict, whereas no effect is observed for the geographically remote regions. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Suarez (2000), Colombia Berman and Couttenier (2015), Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support, Berman and Couttenier (2015), which is said to be similar to a second source; Suárez (2000) Berman, Nicolas, and Mathieu Couttenier. "External Shocks, Internal Shots: The Geography of Civil Conflicts." The Review of Economics and Statistics 97, no. 4 (2015): 758–776. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00521 Suárez, Alejandro R. "Parasites and Predators: Guerrillas and the Insurrection Economy of Colombia." Journal of International Affairs 53, no. 2 (2000): 577–601. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24357766 |
| Poor quality schools | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Quality of education | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Community | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Shifting from imperial to nationalist principles of legitimacy—when sovereignty is transferred from an emperor to a nationally defined people | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Moments | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Regime transition | Once nation-states were established, and with them the like-over-like principle of political legitimacy, ethnopolitical inequalities could be even more easily portrayed as illegitimate. Violent civil wars over who controlled the national state often followed. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | Two articles and one book are cited in support: Wimmer, Andreas, and Brian Min. "From Empire to Nation-State: Explaining Wars in the Modern World, 1816–2001." American Sociological Review 71, no. 6 (2006): 867–97. https://doi.org/10.1177/000312240607100601 Wimmer, Andreas, and Brian Min. "The Location and Purpose of Wars Around the World: A New Global Dataset, 1816–2001." International Interactions 35, no. 4 (2009): 390–417. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050620903328837 Wimmer, Andreas. Waves of War: Nationalism, State Formation, and Ethnic Exclusion in the Modern World. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2013. |
| Strengthening of the country's nascent democracy | Dynamic protective factor | (Political) Regime, (Political) Moments | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Regime transition, Democracy | The initial fears of a potential implosion have dwindled as the country strengthens its nascent democracy. | Unspecified | From the Bangura study: 83% of the total 216 female respondents indicated that they do not trust the state and its elites. Similarly, 86% of the 280 male respondents indicated that they do not trust the state and its elites. They attributed this loss of confidence to factors such as the perceptions of corruption, bad governance, unwillingness to invest in socio-economic and political opportunities for young people, and the use of state security as instruments of oppression against any form of opposition. | Spillover | Country | Unspecified | Youth, Adults | No differentiation | Guinea | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article uses Gersovite and Kriger's (2013) definition of civil war and defines it as the following "a politically organized, large-scale, sustained, physically violent conflict that occurs within a country principally among large/numerically important groups of its inhabitants or citizens over the monopoly of physical force within the country. Civil wars usually have incumbent governments that control the state and have a monopoly of force before the civil war and challengers." | Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | The study employed an ethnographic approach with 232 semi-structured questionnaires administered to 129 male and 103 female respondents between the ages of 18 and 35 years. An additional 264 questionnaires were administered to 151 male and 113 female respondents between the ages of 36 and 60 years. Data were collected from August to November 2016 and from January to March 2018, when follow-up interviews were done with some of the respondents. Additionally, 31 government officials, 10 academics, 18 security and peacebuilding experts, and 59 civil society actors were either interviewed or participated in focus group discussions (FGDs) in all the locations studied. The actors engaged were selected based on their experience working for youth-related Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) of the Government of Guinea, experts in security and peacebuilding-related issues, or they worked for youth-focused civil society organisations, especially during the conflicts in the region. | Finding of the primary article Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 |
| Being a weak state with a late transition to independence | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Moments, (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Regime transition, Strength rule of law/institutions | Some scholars have called attention to the structure of the international system, which granted legal recognition and thus protection from conquest even to fragile states that would never have survived interstate competition in early modern Europe. The result, particularly in regions with late transitions to independence such as Africa (Jackson 1990), is a system of weak states prone to civil wars (Holsti 1996) that are difficult to end decisively (Hironaka 2005). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | One book is cited in support: Holsti, Kalevi J. The State, War, and the State of War. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1996. |
| States having relative peace during their transitions to statehood | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Moments, (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Regime transition, Strength rule of law/institutions | Centeno (2003) has argued that the relative peacefulness of the transition to independent statehood and the low frequency and intensity of postcolonial interstate war made Latin American states weaker than their more bellicose European counterparts, leading to future conflict. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Latin America | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | One book is cited in support: Centeno, Miguel Angel. Blood and Debt: War and the Nation-State in Latin America. Pittsburgh: Pennsylvania State University Press, 2003. |
| Excluded ethnic groups suffer status reversals (i.e., loss of economic / political status) | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation, (Economic) Changes, (Political) Legitimacy of the State, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Relative deprivation, Change in comparative incomes between groups, Exclusion/inclusion, Status/Power/Significance | The authors explain that conflict results from excluded ethnic groups suffering status reversals because of generated grievances and opportunity-related factors such as group size. | Ethnic group status measured with the Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) data set documents all politically relevant ethnic groups and their power access since World War II. | Unspecified | Onset | Community | Opportunity-related factors such as group size. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | The review references one article: Cederman, Lars-Erik, Nils B. Weidmann, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Horizontal Inequalities and Ethno-Nationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison." American Political Science Review 105, no. 3 (2011): 478–95. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055411000207 |
| A country having petroleum oil wealth | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | There is no consensus on the mechanisms that link petroleum wealth to these outcomes, the conditions that make them more or less likely, the reasons they emerged when they did, and why other minerals—with the partial exception of alluvial diamonds—do not seem to be linked to the same outcomes. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Petroleum wealth fosters the onset of violent conflict in low- and middle-income countries, particularly when this form of mineral wealth is found in the territory of marginalized ethnic groups. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Overall conclusion | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Overall review | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | Overall conclusion of the article - several studies point to a few key interactions and aspects of this overall effect: 1) The relationship between natural-resource wealth and the onset of violent conflict instead resembles an inverted “U”: as the value of resource wealth increases, the risk of conflict first rises, then falls. 2) Large amounts of oil wealth per capita (comparable to Nigeria or Iran)are dangerous, but very large amounts (comparable to Saudi Arabia or Equatorial Guinea) are not. 3) Location matters. The likelihood that resource wealth will trigger, prolong, or intensify a conflict seems to depend on were,within a country’s boundaries, it is found - for example, when it is found offshore, oil wealth has no robust relationship with a country’s conflict risk; if it is onshore, it has a large effect (Lujala 2010; Ross 2012). |
| A country having petroleum oil | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | Two studies are cited in support: Ross, Michael L. "Oil, Drugs and Diamonds: The Varying Roles of Natural Resources in Civil War." In The Political Economy of Armed Conflict, edited by Karen Ballentine and Jake Sherman, 47–72. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2003. Ross, Michael L. "A Closer Look at Oil, Diamonds, and Civil War." Annual Review of Political Science 9 (2006): 265–300. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.9.081304.161338 |
| A country having alluvial diamonds | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | Three studies are cited in support: Ross, Michael L. "Oil, Drugs and Diamonds: The Varying Roles of Natural Resources in Civil War." In The Political Economy of Armed Conflict, edited by Karen Ballentine and Jake Sherman, 47–72. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2003. Ross, Michael L. "A Closer Look at Oil, Diamonds, and Civil War." Annual Review of Political Science 9 (2006): 265–300. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.9.081304.161338 Lujala, Päivi, Nils Petter Gleditsch, and Elisabeth Gilmore. "A Diamond Curse? Civil War and a Lootable Resource." Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, no. 4 (2005): 538–62. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002705277548 |
| A country having minerals other than diamonds | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | Two studies are cited in support: Collier, Paul, Anke Hoeffler, and Dominic Rohner. "Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 61 (2009): 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpn029 Besley, Timothy, and Torsten Persson. "State Capacity, Conflict, and Development." Econometrica 78, no. 1 (2010): 1–34. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA8073 |
| A country having coca leaves | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Colombia | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | One study is cited in support: Angrist, Joshua, and Adriana Kugler. "Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income, and Civil Conflict in Colombia." Review of Economics and Statistics 90, no. 2 (2008): 191–215. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.90.2.191 |
| A country having alluvial diamonds | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | One study is cited, Ross (2006) argues that the correlation between alluvial diamonds and civil war is based on a handful of conflicts and is statistically fragile. Ross, Michael L. "A Closer Look at Oil, Diamonds, and Civil War." Annual Review of Political Science 9 (2006): 265–300. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.9.081304.161338 |
| A country having large amounts of oil wealth per capita (comparable to Nigeria or Iran) | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Oil wealth per capita | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | Five articles are cited highlighting the inverted relationship of resource wealth and conflict. Notably, there is also this footnote: "Not everyone agrees; see Humphreys (2005)." Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "On Economic Causes of Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 50 (1998): 563–73. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/50.4.563 Collier, Paul, Anke Hoeffler, and Dominic Rohner. "Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 61 (2009): 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpn029 Basedau, Matthias, and Jann Lay. "Resource Curse or Rentier Peace? The Ambiguous Effects of Oil Wealth and Oil Dependence on Violent Conflict." Journal of Peace Research 46, no. 6 (2009): 757–76. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343309340500 Bjorvatn, Kjetil, and Alireza Naghavi. "Rent Seeking and Regime Stability in Rentier States." European Journal of Political Economy 27, no. 4 (2011): 740–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2011.05.007 Ross, Michael L. The Oil Curse: How Petroleum Wealth Shapes the Development of Nations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2012. |
| A country having very large amounts of oil wealth (comparable to Saudi Arabia or Equatorial Guinea) | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | Five articles are cited highlighting the inverted relationship of resource wealth and conflict. Notably, there is also this footnote: "Not everyone agrees; see Humphreys (2005)." Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "On Economic Causes of Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 50 (1998): 563–73. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/50.4.563 Collier, Paul, Anke Hoeffler, and Dominic Rohner. "Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 61 (2009): 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpn029 Basedau, Matthias, and Jann Lay. "Resource Curse or Rentier Peace? The Ambiguous Effects of Oil Wealth and Oil Dependence on Violent Conflict." Journal of Peace Research 46, no. 6 (2009): 757–76. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343309340500 Bjorvatn, Kjetil, and Alireza Naghavi. "Rent Seeking and Regime Stability in Rentier States." European Journal of Political Economy 27, no. 4 (2011): 740–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2011.05.007 Ross, Michael L. The Oil Curse: How Petroleum Wealth Shapes the Development of Nations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2012. |
| A country's resource wealth reaching very high levels | Static protective factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | when resource wealth reaches very high levels, it becomes a stabilizing force, by enabling the central government to buy off potential rebels and invest more heavily in security (Collier and Hoeffler 1998). In other words, any conflict-inducing properties of the resource are eventually offset by the rentier effect. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | One study is cited in support: Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "On Economic Causes of Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 50 (1998): 563–73. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/50.4.563 |
| Country having oil wealth found offshore | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | Two studies are cited in support: Lujala, Päivi. "The Spoils of Nature: Armed Civil Conflict and Rebel Access to Natural Resources." Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 1 (2010): 15–28. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343309350015 Ross, Michael L. The Oil Curse: How Petroleum Wealth Shapes the Development of Nations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2012. |
| Country having oil wealth found onshore | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | Two studies are cited in support: Lujala, Päivi. "The Spoils of Nature: Armed Civil Conflict and Rebel Access to Natural Resources." Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 1 (2010): 15–28. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343309350015 Ross, Michael L. The Oil Curse: How Petroleum Wealth Shapes the Development of Nations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2012. |
| A country having higher resource dependence | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Total natural capital stock (a World Bank measurement) to instrument for resource dependence. | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | One study is cited which does not support this as a risk factor, finding that instrumented resource dependence is uncorrelated with one measure of conflict onsets. The authors note that their instrument - the World Bank’s measure of “total natural capital stock” - is only available for two years and 100 countries, and may itself be endogenous to conflict. Their approach has been challenged (Van der Ploeg & Poelhekke 2010). Brunnschweiler, Christa, and Erwin Bulte. "Natural Resources and Violent Conflict: Resource Abundance, Dependence, and the Onset of Civil Wars." Oxford Economic Papers 61 (2009): 651–74. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpp024 |
| A country having higher resource wealth | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Oil discoveries, as an instrument for resource wealth. This is measured through two strategies: 1) a long panel of oil wealth (covering the 1930–2003 period) based on industrial data, where oil wealth is measured as the product of oil price and oil reserves, and 2) exploit historical time-series variation in oil prices driven by natural disasters in oil producing countries. | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | One study is cited with mixed support. Cotet and Tsui find that instrumented oil wealth is statistically associated with conflict onsets in a simple pooled cross-sectional and time-series setting, but loses significance once they include country-fixed effects to account for unobserved factors that are country-specific and time-invariant. Cotet, Anca, and Kevin K. Tsui. "Resource Curse or Malthusian Trap? Evidence from Oil Discoveries and Extractions." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5, no. 1 (2013): 49–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1478886 |
| Abundance of non-renewable resources | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Theoretical evidence points to a number of explanations for this effect. The authors argue these explanations differ and sometimes compete: Wealth may contribute to the funding of rebels, dysfunctioning political and economic institutions, and the weakening of state institutions due to a lack of need for taxes / social apparatuses. The abundance of non-renewable resources has also the potential to make a country more dependent on global commodity markets, which are likely to be volatile. This makes resource-dependent states vulnerable to trade shocks, which in turn may increase the risk of conflict (Humphreys, 2005; Ross, 2006; Dal Bó & Dal Bó, 2011). Resource abundance and dependence may also aggravate grievances leading to conflict if a particular resource is controlled by only one group (Wick & Bulte, 2006), or if citizens perceive the distribution of resource rents to be unfair (Østby, Nordas & Rød, 2009; Murshed & Gates, 2005; Humphreys, 2005). Similarly, resource extraction might induce conflict if the local population becomes frustrated with negative externalities associated with the extraction process, such as pollution, land expropriation, or in-migration (Ross, 2004a; Humphreys, 2005). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Overall review | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | Overall conclusion of the article, which examined ~16 empirical studies examining the effects of resource abundance have largely found support for its effect as a risk factor for armed conflict |
| Renewable resource scarcity | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Resource wealth/scarcity | The reviewed literature includes several explanations of scarcity as a risk factor, while several other explanations argue against it. several researchers posit that increasing scarcity of renewable resources creates grievances against the state, weakens it and civil society, and leads to opportunities for insurrection (e.g. Homer-Dixon, 1994, 1999; Bächler et al., 1996). Homer-Dixon (1999). Cornucopians or ‘resource optimists’ do not share this neo-malthusian view. Cornucopians claim that humans are able to adapt to resource scarcity through market mechanisms, technological innovations, social institutions for resource allocation, or any combination thereof (e.g. Lomborg, 2001). Resource optimists instead suggest various causal mechanisms in which scarcity is just one of several factors in the overall relationship between natural resources and conflict. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | The authors assessment is in line with Gleditsch (1998) and Theisen (2008) who point to several weaknesses of existing research, one being that it neglects the potential mediating roles of economic and political factors. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Overall review | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | Overall conclusion of the article, which examined ~10 empirical studies examining the effects of resource scarcity have generated a wide range of empirical evidence which do not allow for a clearcut conclusion. The authors agree with the scarcity argument which led Theisen (2008: 810) to conclude that ‘scarcity of natural resources has limited explanatory power in terms of civil violence’. The authors' assessment is in line with Gleditsch (1998) and Theisen (2008) who point to several weaknesses of existing research, namely that it neglects the potential mediating roles of economic and political factors; it does not address issues of endogeneity; it selects on the dependent variable; and it is unclear about the appropriate level of analysis (individual, household, subnational, or national). They conclude" with a view to the saying that ‘absence of evidence is not evidence of absence’ – we are reluctant to conclude that the neo-malthusian argument on resource scarcity is empirically false, and that, by implication, the cornucopians are right." |
| Freshwater scarcity | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global sample in 1980–92 | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | The review references one study: Hauge, Wenche, and Tanja Ellingsen. "Beyond Environmental Scarcity: Causal Pathways to Conflict." Journal of Peace Research 35, no. 3 (1998): 299–317. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343398035003003 |
| Water scarcity (water per capita and drought) | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Water per capita | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global sample in 1979–2001 | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | The review refers to one study: "Theisen (2008), however, shows ...water scarcity has no effect at all." Theisen, Ole Magnus. "Blood and Soil? Resource Scarcity and Internal Armed Conflict Revisited." Journal of Peace Research 45, no. 6 (2008): 801–18. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343308096157 |
| Freshwater access | Dynamic risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Water per capita | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | The review refers to one article: Hendrix, Cullen, and Sara Glaser. "Trends and Triggers: Climate, Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa." Political Geography 26, no. 6 (2007): 695–715. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.006 "Hendrix & Glaser (2007) report that land degradation has no impact, whereas more water per capita actually increases the risk of civil conflict in sub Saharan Africa. " |
| Vegetation cover in an area | Dynamic risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Vegetation, measured using the Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI), which quantifies the concentration of green leaf vegetation in a country. | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | 12 administrative units along the borders of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | Meier, Bond & Bond (2007) report that increased vegetation rather than scarcity is positively associated with the incidence of organized raids, but not number of deaths or livestock losses Meier, Patrick, Doug Bond, and Joe Bond. "Environmental Influences on Pastoral Conflict in the Horn of Africa." Political Geography 26, no. 6 (2007): 716–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.001 |
| Abundance of non-renewable resources | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Collier & Hoeffler (2004) report that rebellion is more likely to occur in countries with abundant natural resource deposits, and interpret this as evidence for the argument that resource abundance constitutes a financial opportunity for rebels. Subsequent studies have either supported (Ross, 2004a,b) or undermined this explanation (Fearon, 2005; Humphreys, 2005; Hegre & Sambanis, 2006). In particular, Fearon (2005) and Humphreys (2005) argue more convincingly that their empirical findings provide stronger support for the weak state mechanism rather than the argument on greedy rebels. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Multiple studies analyzing different countries / samples | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | The article cites six studies that support this factor, but find conflicting and undermining explanations for this effect: Collier & Hoeffler (2004) find evidence for the hypothesized link between resource endowments and the risk of civil war. They report that rebellion is more likely to occur in countries with abundant natural resource deposits, and interpret this as evidence for the argument that resource abundance constitutes a financial opportunity for rebels. Subsequent studies have either supported (Ross, 2004a,b) or undermined this conjecture (Fearon, 2005; Humphreys, 2005; Hegre & Sambanis, 2006). In particular, Fearon (2005) and Humphreys (2005) argue more convincingly that their empirical findings provide stronger support for the weak state mechanism rather than the argument on greedy rebels. Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4 (2004): 563–595. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064 Ross, Michael. "How Do Natural Resources Influence Civil War? Evidence from Thirteen Cases." International Organization 58, no. 1 (2004): 35–67. https://doi.org/10.1017/S002081830458102X Ross, Michael. "What Do We Know About Natural Resources and Civil War?" Journal of Peace Research 41, no. 3 (2004): 337–356. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343304043773 Fearon, James D. "Primary Commodities and Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, no. 4 (2005): 483–507. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002705277544 Humphreys, Macartan. "Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution: Uncovering the Mechanisms" Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, no. 4 (2005): 508–37. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002705277545 Hegre, Håvard, and Nicholas Sambanis. "Sensitivity Analysis of the Empirical Literature on Civil War Onset." Journal of Conflict Resolution 50, no. 4 (2006): 508–535. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002706289303 |
| Resource dependence when controlling for endogeneity | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Resource dependence, calculated as primary exports divided by GDP. | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global sample in 1960–2004 | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | One article is cited which finds no effect: Brunnschweiler, Christa, and Erwin Bulte. "Natural Resources and Violent Conflict: Resource Abundance, Dependence, and the Onset of Civil Wars." Oxford Economic Papers 61, no. 4 (2009): 651–674. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpp024 |
| Presence of oil | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Overall conclusion | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Overall review | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | The authors conclude that there is agreement on the significance of oil. This is supported by Ward, Greenhill & Bakke (2010: 369ff) in their assessment of the predictive power of covariates on civil war onset: although other factors like income or ethnic fractionalization seem to play a more important role in this regard, the variables on oil and commodity dependence substantially increase a model’s in-sample or out-of-sample predictive power. |
| A country being oil-dependent and having large resource wealth per capita | Static protective factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Multiple studies analyzing different countries / samples | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | According to Collier & Hoeffler (1998, 2004) and, more recently, Basedau & Lay (2009), oil dependence has a U-shaped impact on the risk of civil war with large resource wealth per capita – i.e. abundance – linked to less violence. Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "On Economic Causes of Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 50, no. 4 (1998): 563–573. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/50.4.563 Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4 (2004): 563–595. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064 Basedau, Matthias, and Jann Lay. "Resource Curse or Rentier Peace? The Ambiguous Effects of Oil Wealth and Oil Dependence on Violent Conflict." Journal of Peace Research 46, no. 6 (2009): 757–776. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343309340500 |
| A combination of land scarcity and high rates of population growth | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources, Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity, Demographic changes (incl. Migration/Forced diplacement) | Unspecified | Land scarcity (population density with respect to land that is potentially suitable for food production) and population growth | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global sample in 1950–2000 | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | The review refers to one article: Urdal, Henrik. "People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation, and Armed Conflict Revisited." Journal of Peace Research 42, no. 4 (2005): 417–34. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343305054089 |
| Oil being found in regions populated by marginalized ethnic groups | Static risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights, Demographic, (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity, Discrimination, Ethnic diversity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | Two studies are cited in support: Basedau, Matthias, and Thomas Richter. "Why Do Some Oil Exporters Experience Civil War but Others Do Not? A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Net Oil-Exporting Countries." GIGA Working Papers. Hamburg: GIGA Institute of African Affairs, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755773913000234 Hunziker, Philipp, and Lars Erik Cederman. "No Extraction without Representation: Petroleum Production and Ethnonationalist Conflict." APSA 2012 Annual Meeting Paper. Zurich: ETH, 2012. |
| Oil being found in a region were ethnic entrepreneurs use it to promote collective resistance to the central government | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources, Demographic, (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity, Ethnic diversity, Political grievances/satisfaction | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | Three studies are cited in support: de Soysa, Indra. "Ecoviolence: Shrinking Pie or Honey Pot?" Global Environmental Politics 2, no. 4 (2002): 1–34. https://doi.org/10.1162/152638002320980605 Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 Le Billon, Philippe. Fuelling War: Natural Resources and Armed Conflicts. New York City: Routledge, 2005. |
| Oil being found in regions that are poor relative to the national average | Static risk factor | (Economic) Situation, (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity, Horizontal (in)equality | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | One study is cited in support: Østby, Gudrun, Ragnhild Nordås, and Jan Ketil Rød. "Regional Inequalities and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa." International Studies Quarterly 53, no. 2 (2009): 301–24. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2009.00535.x |
| Oil being found in a region with a highly concentrated ethnic group | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources, (Economic) Situation, Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity, Horizontal (in)equality, Ethnic diversity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | One study cited in support: Morelli, Massimo, and Dominic Rohner. "Natural Resource Distribution and Multiple Forms of Civil War." Working Paper Series 498. Zurich: Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, 2010. https://www.columbia.edu/cu/polisci/pdf-files/Morelli_Natural_Resource_Distribution.pdf |
| Being an oil exporter | Static protective factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Resources export | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach." Journal of Political Economy 112 (2004): 725–53. https://doi.org/10.1086/421174 |
| An exogenous decrease in export commodity prices | Static risk factor | (Economic) Activity, (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resources export, Shock on prices | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Transnational | Authors find a strong relationship between exogenous drops in commodity prices and the associated downturns in producing countries, noting that these shocks lead to an increased risk of an onset in civil conflict. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sub-Saharan African countries | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Brückner, Markus, and Antonio Ciccone. "International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa." The Economic Journal 120, no. 544 (2010): 519–534. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02353.x |
| An exogenous increase in agricultural prices of commodities for which a region is a net producer | Static protective factor | (Economic) Activity, (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resources export, Shock on prices | Several studies attribute this factor to an increased opportunity cost of participation in conflict - as prices increase in a producer-region, any potential conflict is made more costly. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Transnational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | Overall review of several studies in section 5.2 of the source. |
| Resource extraction | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resources extraction/production | Resource extraction might induce conflict if the local population becomes frustrated with negative externalities associated with the extraction process, such as pollution, land expropriation, or in-migration. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | Two articles are cited in support: Ross, Michael. "How Do Natural Resources Influence Civil War? Evidence from Thirteen Cases." International Organization 58, no. 1 (2004): 35–67. https://doi.org/10.1017/S002081830458102X Humphreys, Macartan. "Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution: Uncovering the Mechanisms" Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, no. 4 (2005): 508–37. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002705277545 |
| Oil production | Static risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resources extraction/production | Unspecified | Country's yearly oil production. | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global sample in 1960–99 | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | One article is cited in support: Humphreys, Macartan. "Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution: Uncovering the Mechanisms" Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, no. 4 (2005): 508–37. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002705277545 |
| Oil and gas rents | Static risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resources extraction/production | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global sample in 1960–2002 (onset) or 1960–99 (duration) | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | One article is cited in support: Ross, Michael. "A Closer Look at Oil, Diamonds, and Civil War." Annual Review of Political Science 9, no. 1 (2006): 265–300. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.9.081304.161338 |
| Onshore oil production | Static risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resources extraction/production | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global sample in 1946–2003 | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | One article is referenced which finds that oil production increases the risk of conflict onset when such production is located onshore: Lujala, Päivi. "The Spoils of Nature: Armed Civil Conflict and Rebel Access to Natural Resources." Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 1 (2010): 15–28. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343309350015 |
| Offshore oil production | Static risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Resources extraction/production | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global sample in 1946–2003 | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | One article is referenced which finds offshore production does not have any effect on the risk of conflict onset. Lujala, Päivi. "The Spoils of Nature: Armed Civil Conflict and Rebel Access to Natural Resources." Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 1 (2010): 15–28. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343309350015 |
| Secondary diamond deposits - secondary diamonds are found near the surface and are commonly mined by small teams of unskilled workers | Static risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resources extraction/production | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | 354 regions (first-level administrative units) in 22 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa for 1986–2004 | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | One article is cited in support Østby, Gudrun, Ragnhild Nordås, and Jan Ketil Rød. "Regional Inequalities and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa." International Studies Quarterly 53, no. 2 (2009): 301–324. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2009.00535.x |
| Rents from secondary diamond production - secondary diamonds are found near the surface and are commonly mined by small teams of unskilled workers | Static risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resources extraction/production | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global sample in 1960–2002 (onset) | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | One article is cited in support: Ross, Michael. "A Closer Look at Oil, Diamonds, and Civil War." Annual Review of Political Science 9, no. 1 (2006): 265–300. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.9.081304.161338 |
| Volume of diamond production | Static risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resources extraction/production | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global sample in 1960–99 | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | One article is cited in support: Humphreys, Macartan. "Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution: Uncovering the Mechanisms" Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, no. 4 (2005): 508–37. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002705277545 |
| Rebels can obstruct the extraction of natural resources, as with oil, gas, and diamonds | Static risk factor | (Economic) Activity, (Situational) Location | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resources extraction/production, Accessible location | When rebels can obstruct the extraction of natural resources,as with oil, gas, and diamonds, the likelihood of civil war (and especially of separatist civil wars) increases; this has been especially true from the 1970s onward, when oil resources came increasingly under the control of national governments. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | Two references are cited in support: Ross, Michael. "A Closer Look at Oil, Diamonds, and Civil War." Annual Review of Political Science 9 (2006): 265–300. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.9.081304.161338 Ross, Michael. The Oil Curse: How Petroleum Wealth Shapes the Development of Nations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2012. |
| A country being an oil producer or oil exporter | Static risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Resources extraction/production, Resources export | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Ostby: Sub-Saharan Africa Thies: Global Sample | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | Two studies find only weak support for the claim that oil influences the onset of civil conflict. Østby, Gudrun, Ragnhild Nordås, and Jan Ketil Rød. "Regional Inequalities and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa." International Studies Quarterly 53, no. 2 (2009): 301–324. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2009.00535.x Thies, Cameron. "Of Rulers, Rebels, and Revenue: State Capacity, Civil War Onset, and Primary Commodities." Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 3 (2010): 321–332. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310361841 |
| Mountainous terrain allows rebels to hide and retreat | Static risk factor | (Situational) Location | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Rough terrain | Fearon & Laitin’s (2003) much discussed insurgency model maintains that wars are driven not by questions of political legitimacy but by military opportunity. If government forces are weak and disorganized, and if mountainous terrain allows rebels to hide and retreat, ambitious leaders will be able to organize a rebellion in whatever name: national liberation, fewer taxes, religious renewal, the elimination of class oppression, or straightforward self-enrichment. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | If government forces are weak and disorganized, and there is mountainous terrain in which rebels can hide, the military opportunity for intra-state armed conflict increases. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | One article is cited in support: Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| Higher percentage of mountainous terrain compared to average (using a global sample over many years) | Static risk factor | (Situational) Location | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Rough terrain | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis for overall intrastate conflict | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Fearon & Laitin (2003a) Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| Higher percentage of mountainous terrain compared to average (using an African sample over many years) | Static risk factor | (Situational) Location | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Rough terrain | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach." Journal of Political Economy 112 (2004): 725–53. https://doi.org/10.1086/421174 |
| Government forces are weak and disorganized | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Institutions | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Security sector strength/weakness | Fearon & Laitin’s (2003) much discussed insurgency model maintains that wars are driven not by questions of political legitimacy but by military opportunity. If government forces are weak and disorganized, and if mountainous terrain allows rebels to hide and retreat, ambitious leaders will be able to organize a rebellion in whatever name: national liberation, fewer taxes, religious renewal, the elimination of class oppression, or straightforward self-enrichment. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | If government forces are weak and disorganized, and there is mountainous terrain in which rebels can hide, the military opportunity for intra-state armed conflict increases. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | One article is cited in support: Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| Countries with higher levels of repressive capacity (characteristic of a country that is a potential target of diffusion) | Dynamic protective factor | (Security) Institutions | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Security sector strength/weakness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One article is referenced, showing empirical support for this effect: Braithwaite, Alex. (2010) Resisting Infection: How State Capacity Conditions Conflict Contagion. Journal of Peace Research 47 (3): 311–319. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310362164 |
| Countries with stronger border control | Dynamic protective factor | (Security) Institutions | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Security sector strength/weakness | States with efficient border control prevent some of the spillover of war externalities, such as the transfer of arms and mercenaries across borders. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One article is referenced, showing empirical support for this effect: Braithwaite, Alex. (2010) Resisting Infection: How State Capacity Conditions Conflict Contagion. Journal of Peace Research 47 (3): 311–319. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310362164 |
| A strong local army presence | Dynamic protective factor | (Security) Institutions | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Security sector strength/weakness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | The literature review mentions two articles: Kalyvas, Stathis N. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511818462. Wood, Elisabeth Jean. Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808685. |
| Unity of the military during the different political transitions | Dynamic protective factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Security sector strength/weakness | The efficacy of, and cohesion within the Guinean military may have contributed to stability in Guinea and prevented the spillover of neighboring conflicts. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Guinea | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article uses Gersovite and Kriger's (2013) definition of civil war and defines it as the following "a politically organized, large-scale, sustained, physically violent conflict that occurs within a country principally among large/numerically important groups of its inhabitants or citizens over the monopoly of physical force within the country. Civil wars usually have incumbent governments that control the state and have a monopoly of force before the civil war and challengers." | Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | The study employed an ethnographic approach with 232 semi-structured questionnaires administered to 129 male and 103 female respondents between the ages of 18 and 35 years. An additional 264 questionnaires were administered to 151 male and 113 female respondents between the ages of 36 and 60 years. Data were collected from August to November 2016 and from January to March 2018, when follow-up interviews were done with some of the respondents. Additionally, 31 government officials, 10 academics, 18 security and peacebuilding experts, and 59 civil society actors were either interviewed or participated in focus group discussions (FGDs) in all the locations studied. The actors engaged were selected based on their experience working for youth-related Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) of the Government of Guinea, experts in security and peacebuilding-related issues, or they worked for youth-focused civil society organisations, especially during the conflicts in the region. | One article provides support for this protective factor: Bah, Mamadou Diouma. “The Military and Politics in Guinea: An Instrumental Explanation of Political Stability.” Armed Forces & Society 41, no. 1 (2015): 69–95. https://www.jstor.org/stable/48609199. |
| Capacity of the state to prevent or deter armed rebellion | Dynamic protective factor | (Security) Institutions, (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Security sector strength/weakness, Strength rule of law/institutions | Individual greed or group-based grievances founded on religious, social, or ethnic antagonisms may drive conflict but civil war is unlikely unless those with such motivations are able to exploit the weakness of the state. As such, it is the capacity of the state to prevent or deter armed rebellion that is the key variable, rather than individual or group-based motivations. | Unspecified | The capacity of the state to prevent or deter armed rebellion is more of a key variable than individual or group-based motivations. | Onset | Country | Individual greed or group-based grievances | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified. The review mostly focuses on how the process of identifying with any social group (class, party, gender, ethnicity, religion, etc.) could affect behavior, including violent behaviour. | Kalin, Michael, and Nicholas Sambanis. “How to Think About Social Identity.” Annual review of political science 21, no. 1 (2018): 239–257. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-042016-024408 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This review synthesizes recent scholarship that incorporates a social identity perspective on political behavior, from voting and redistribution to violence and conflict. | One article is cited in support of this protective factor: Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| An increase in food prices | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Shock on prices | Unspecified | The number of natural disasters – all droughts, earthquakes, epidemics, episodes of extreme temperature, floods, insect infestations, mass movements (both dry and wet), storms, volcanic eruptions, and wildfires–in a given month. Because food prices and social unrest are jointly determined, the prevalence of natural disasters is used as an instrumental variable in an attempt to exogenize food price levels relative to social unrest. (Bellemere, 2015) | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | Three studies are referenced in support: Bellemare, Marc F. "Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 97, no. 1 (2015): 1–21. http://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau038 De Winne, Jasmien, and Gert Peersman. "The Impact of Food Prices on Conflict Revisited." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 39, no. 2 (2021): 547–560. http://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2019.1684301 Raleigh, Clionadh, Hyejin Choi, and David Kniveton. "The Devil Is in the Details: An Investigation of the Relationships Between Conflict, Food Price, and Climate Across Africa." Global Environmental Change 32 (2015): 187–199. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.005 |
| An increase in export commodity prices | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Shock on prices | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | Three studies are referenced in support: Berman, Nicolas, and Mathieu Couttenier. "External Shocks, Internal Shots: The Geography of Civil Conflicts." The Review of Economics and Statistics 97, no. 4 (2015): 758–776. http://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00521 Brückner, Markus, and Antonio Ciccone. "International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa." The Economic Journal 120, no. 544 (2010): 519–534. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02353.x Fjelde, Hanne. "Farming or Fighting? Agricultural Price Shocks and Civil War in Africa." World Development 67 (2015): 525–534. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.10.032 |
| An increase in export commodity prices | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Shock on prices | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced finding a mixed relationship between commodity prices and conflict, the authors argue that the degree of observability of revenues from commodities matters: Bazzi, Samuel, and Christopher Blattman. "Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 6, no. 4 (2014): 1–38. http://doi.org/10.1257/mac.6.4.1 |
| Exogenous changes in global food prices due to harvest shocks in other parts of the world | Static risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Shock on prices | Higher food prices lead to higher levels of conflict, possibly due to increased competition for resources. The authors conclude that their results are consistent with predation and deprivation (higher food prices increase deprivation) theories of conflict and go against the opportunity cost argument. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support, finding that changes in global food prices due to harvest shocks in other parts of the world and an increase in food prices increases all types of conflict in Africa. De Winne, Jasmien, and Gert Peersman. "The Impact of Food Prices on Conflict Revisited." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 39, no. 2 (2021): 547–560. http://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2019.1684301 |
| Rising food prices | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Shock on prices | Unspecified | The number of natural disasters – all droughts, earthquakes, epidemics, episodes of extreme temperature, floods, insect infestations, mass movements (both dry and wet), storms, volcanic eruptions, and wildfires–in a given month. Because food prices and social unrest are jointly determined, the prevalence of natural disasters is used as an instrumental variable in an attempt to exogenize food price levels relative to social unrest. | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Relationship between food prices and armed conflict, deploying the prevalence of natural disasters as an instrument for the food price level. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Bellemare, Marc F. "Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 97, no. 1 (2015): 1–21. http://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau038 |
| Abnormally low levels of rainfall, leading to an increase in food prices | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Shock on prices | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Raleigh et al. (2015) use a simultaneous equations framework to study the relationship between food prices, conflict, and climate. They find that conflict increases the prices of commodities, which also increase the rate of political violence. Abnormally low levels of rainfall lead to increases in food prices, and these positively impact political violence. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support, abnormally low levels of rainfall lead to increases in food prices, and these positively impact political violence. Raleigh, Clionadh, Hyejin Choi, and David Kniveton. "The Devil Is in the Details: An Investigation of the Relationships Between Conflict, Food Price, and Climate Across Africa." Global Environmental Change 32 (2015): 187–199. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.005 |
| Experiencing trade shocks to commodity prices | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Shock on prices | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced, finding no robust relationship between trade shocks to commodity prices and a rise in new conflict: Bazzi, Samuel, and Christopher Blattman. "Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 6, no. 4 (2014): 1–38. http://doi.org/10.1257/mac.6.4.1 |
| Coffee prices rising in coffee-producing municipalities | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Shock on prices | Dube & Vargas (2013) explicitly cast their empirical study within the Dal Bo–Dal Bo model of labor-intensity and opportunity cost. Coffee production is a relatively labor-intensive activity. so that a rise in coffee prices is likely to lead to an increase in wages relative to the overall price index. The opportunity cost argument then kicks in, reducing conflict. | Changes in coffee prices, measured using historical data on coffee prices by coffee-producing municipality. | Coffee prices fell by 68% over the period 1997–2003. The estimates of Dube & Vargas (2013) suggest that this led to 18% more guerrilla attacks and 31% more paramilitary attacks in the average coffee producing municipality relative to non-coffee-producing municipalities. | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Colombia | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | One article is cited in support; Dube, Oeindrila, and Juan F. Vargas. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia." Review of Economic Studies 80 (2013): 1384–1421. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdt009 |
| Oil prices rising in oil-producing municipalities | Static risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Shock on prices | Dube & Vargas (2013) explicitly cast their empirical study within the Dal Bo–Dal Bo model. oil extraction and processing are capital intensive, so that the opportunity cost argument runs in the opposite direction, with positive shocks generating | Changes in oil prices, measured using historical data on prices by oil-producing municipality. | Oil prices rose by 137% over the period 1998–2005 - the rise in oil prices appears to induce an additional increase of 14% in paramilitary attacks in the average oil-producing municipality. There is evidence of the channel causing this: oil municipality tax revenue increases differentially, and so do the kidnappings of politicians and leaders. | Onset | Country | As oil municipality tax revenue increases differentially, so do the kidnappings of politicians and leaders. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Colombia | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | One article is cited in support; Dube, Oeindrila, and Juan F. Vargas. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia." Review of Economic Studies 80 (2013): 1384–1421. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdt009 |
| Higher export prices and lower import prices (due to an endogenous increase in commodity prices) | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Shock on prices | Unspecified | Difference between export prices and import prices | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The paper uses the definition of conflict from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Events Dataset (UCDP GED) (Sundberg and Melander, 2013), which defines conflict events as incidences of the use of armed force by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians that result in at least one direct death. The UCDP GED thus contains information on three types of organized violence: violence between two organized actors of which at least one is the government of a state, violence between actors of which neither party is the government of a state, and lastly, violence against unarmed civilians perpetrated by organized non-state groups or governments. | Leepipatpiboon, Patcharaporn, et al. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Conflict. IMF Working Papers WP/23/68." (2023): https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/03/18/Macroeconomic-Shocks-and-Conflict-531101 | Grey literature | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This paper contributes to the research on the macroeconomic origins of conflict. Based on a sample of 133 low and middle-income countries over a 30-year period, it analyses to what extent changes in a country’s commodity terms-of-trade (ToT) can explain an increase in the incidence and intensity of conflicts through their effect on aggregate income. | "Higher export prices and lower import prices decrease violence consistent with the resulting income increases. E.g., Oil price: Brückner, Markus, and Antonio Ciccone. "International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub‐Saharan Africa." The Economic Journal 120, no. 544 (2010): 519–534. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02353.x. Food price Bellemare, Marc F. "Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 97 no. 1 (2014):1–21. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau038. van Weezel, Stijn. "Food Imports, International Prices, and Violence in Africa." Oxford Economic Papers 68, no. 3 (2016): 758–781. https://www.jstor.org/stable/44122875. Crop export Berman, Nicolas, and Mathieu Couttenier. "External Shocks, Internal Shots: The Geography of Civil Conflicts." The Review of Economics and Statistics 97 no. 4 (2012): 758–776. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/77425/1/725702915.pdf. Fjelde, Hanne. "Farming or Fighting? Agricultural Price Shocks and Civil War in Africa." World Development 67 (2014): 525–534. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.10.032. |
| Higher export prices and lower import prices (due to an endogenous increase in commodity prices) | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Shock on prices | Unspecified | Difference between export prices and import prices | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The paper uses the definition of conflict from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Events Dataset (UCDP GED) (Sundberg and Melander, 2013), which defines conflict events as incidences of the use of armed force by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians that result in at least one direct death. The UCDP GED thus contains information on three types of organized violence: violence between two organized actors of which at least one is the government of a state, violence between actors of which neither party is the government of a state, and lastly, violence against unarmed civilians perpetrated by organized non-state groups or governments. | Leepipatpiboon, Patcharaporn, et al. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Conflict. IMF Working Papers WP/23/68." (2023): https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/03/18/Macroeconomic-Shocks-and-Conflict-531101 | Grey literature | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This paper contributes to the research on the macroeconomic origins of conflict. Based on a sample of 133 low and middle-income countries over a 30-year period, it analyses to what extent changes in a country’s commodity terms-of-trade (ToT) can explain an increase in the incidence and intensity of conflicts through their effect on aggregate income. | Some studies find that higher export prices and lower import prices increase violence e.g., Besley, Timothy J. and Torsten Persson. "The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence." NBER Working Paper No. w14585. (2008). https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1320831. Collier, Paul and Anke Hoeffler. "Resource Rents, Governance, and Conflict." The Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, no. 4 (2005): 625–633. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002705277551. Berman, Nicolas, et al. "This Mine Is Mine! How Minerals Fuel Conflicts in Africa." American Economic Review 107 no. 6 (2017): 1564–1610. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20150774. |
| Higher export prices and lower import prices (due to an endogenous increase in commodity prices) | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Shock on prices | Unspecified | Difference between export prices and import prices | Insignificant result | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The paper uses the definition of conflict from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Events Dataset (UCDP GED) (Sundberg and Melander, 2013), which defines conflict events as incidences of the use of armed force by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians that result in at least one direct death. The UCDP GED thus contains information on three types of organized violence: violence between two organized actors of which at least one is the government of a state, violence between actors of which neither party is the government of a state, and lastly, violence against unarmed civilians perpetrated by organized non-state groups or governments. | Leepipatpiboon, Patcharaporn, et al. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Conflict. IMF Working Papers WP/23/68." (2023): https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/03/18/Macroeconomic-Shocks-and-Conflict-531101 | Grey literature | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This paper contributes to the research on the macroeconomic origins of conflict. Based on a sample of 133 low and middle-income countries over a 30-year period, it analyses to what extent changes in a country’s commodity terms-of-trade (ToT) can explain an increase in the incidence and intensity of conflicts through their effect on aggregate income. | A study find insignificant results when they study whether higher export prices and lower import prices decrease violence. E.g., Bazzi, Samuel and Christopher Blattman. "Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 6 no. 4 (2014): 1–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.6.4.1. |
| Being impacted negatively by global agricultural price shocks, where there is high labour intensity of agriculture so unemployment increased while wages decreased. | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Shock on prices, Salary increase/decrease, Loss/gain of employment | Fjelde (2015) links this effect to the opportunity cost theory of conflict - there is a higher likelihood of participation in rebel activities by local populations when local incomes decline. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Transnational | Areas impacted negatively by global agricultural price shocks, with high labor intensity of agriculture and were unemployment increased and wages decreased, are more likely to experience increased violence. | Does not specify | No differentiation | African countries | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Fjelde, Hanne. "Farming or Fighting? Agricultural Price Shocks and Civil War in Africa." World Development 67 (2015): 525–534. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.10.032 |
| Social influence of local militias on one's family and community | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | In both CAR and DRC, adolescent boys and girls reported deciding to engage with armed groups alongside friends or other community members. The influence of these networks were distinct when comparing the experiences of adolescents who were associated with armed groups to those who were not. | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children, Youth | Male and female | Ouham-Pendé, CAR and North Kivu, DRC | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Findings of a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews. Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS Global Public Health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1482629/v1 |
| Not having any friends with armed groups, reducing social influences to engage | Static protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | In both CAR and DRC, adolescent boys and girls reported deciding to engage with armed groups alongside friends or other community members - lacking those social groups reduced influence to engage. | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children, Youth | Male and female | Ouham-Pendé, CAR and North Kivu, DRC | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Findings of a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews. Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS Global Public Health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1482629/v1 |
| Parental permission to join | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children, Youth | Female | Ouham-Pendé, CAR and North Kivu, DRC | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Findings of a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews - Girls out of the armed groups reported more often than boys that their parent gave them permission to join. Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS Global Public Health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1482629/v1 |
| Parental disapproval for engagement with armed groups | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | A few girls who were at risk but who had not engaged with armed groups reported that their caregivers had forbidden them from joining or that they could not join because of their gender. In the case of girls, given gender roles and decision-making dynamics within the home, they would need to have the support of their parents—particularly their fathers—to engage with the group. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children, Youth | Female | Ouham-Pendé, CAR and North Kivu, DRC | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Findings of a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews. Respondents who were associated with armed groups reported varying levels of support from their parents. Both boys and girls had family members who were also in the group, such as fathers or siblings. Girls out of the armed groups reported more often than boys that their parent gave them permission to join. A few girls who were at risk but who had not engaged with armed groups reported that their caregivers had forbidden them from joining or that they could not join because of their gender. Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS Global Public Health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1482629/v1 |
| Parental disapproval for engagement with armed groups | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Social influence | Unlike girls, boys are not expected to need the approval of their parents in order to join an armed group, and often join in spite of parental disapproval. However most of the at-risk boys who had not joined armed groups reported that their parents were vocally against them joining. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children, Youth | Male | Ouham-Pendé, CAR and North Kivu, DRC | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Findings of a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews. Respondents who were associated with armed groups reported varying levels of support from their parents. Both boys and girls had family members who were also in the group, such as fathers or siblings. several boys in both DRC and CAR reported that their parents were against them joining but that they made the decision to run away and engage with the group regardless, creating tension with their caregivers. In the case of boys, they were not expected to ask for permission; as was reported in both DRC and CAR, many caregivers did not know their boy child had joined until he did not come home. However, most of the at-risk boys who had not joined armed groups reported that their parents were vocally against them joining. Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS Global Public Health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1482629/v1 |
| Social pressure, particularly in situations were peers and friends have already joined an armed group | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Social pressure plays a significant role in recruitment as children seek a sense of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | The ethnic and religious nature of the conflict in CAR could be why this social pressure at the community level was so influential. | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | One article is cited in support: Hall, Erica. "No Choice: It takes a world to end the use of child soldiers." World Vis Int (2019). |
| Camaraderie, or wanting to be among friends who had already been recruited by armed groups | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | South Sudan, CAR, DRC, and Colombia | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | One article is cited in support: Hall, Erica. "No Choice: It takes a world to end the use of child soldiers." World Vis Int (2019). |
| Family support for the armed group, including being engaged in the armed group themselves | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Two articles are cited in support: Hall, Erica. "No Choice: It takes a world to end the use of child soldiers." World Vis Int (2019). O’Neil, Siobhan. "Trajectories of children into and out of non-state armed groups." Cradled by conflict: child involvement with armed groups in contemporary conflict. United Nations University (2018): 38-79. |
| Cohesive communities, particularly skilled leaders, influence through the promotion of norms, ideas and incentives | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Cohesive communities with particularly skilled leaders can prevent their residents from participating in armed groups through the promotion of norms, ideas and incentives (Kaplan 2017:48; Krause 2018). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | The literature review mentions two articles: Kaplan, Oliver. Resisting War: How Communities Protect Themselves. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316671887. Krause, Jana. Resilient Communities: Non-Violence and Civilian Agency in Communal War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108675079. |
| Skillful rescue strategies of community leaders | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Krause (2018) develops a resilience lens and argues that the skillful rescue strategies of community leaders enabled communities without strong pre-war organizations to continuously adapt to conflict dynamics and to collectively resist individual and communal engagement in violence. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Community | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | The literature review mentions one article: Krause, Jana. Resilient Communities: Non-Violence and Civilian Agency in Communal War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108675079. |
| Individuals without social ties to people already active in armed groups and social movements | Static protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | The literature review mentions five articles: Bosi, Lorenzo, and Donatella della Porta. "Micro-Mobilization into Armed Groups: Ideological, Instrumental and Solidaristic Paths." Qualitative Sociology 35, no. 4 (2012): 361–83. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11133-012-9237-1. Hensby, Alexander. "Networks of Non-Participation: Comparing ‘Supportive’, ‘Unsupportive’ and ‘Undecided’ Non-Participants in the UK Student Protests against Fees and Cuts." Sociology 51, no. 5 (2017): 957–74. https://doi.org/10.1177/0038038515608113. Humphreys, Macartan, and Jeremy M. Weinstein. "Who Fights? The Determinants of Participation in Civil War." American Journal of Political Science 52, no. 2 (2008): 436–55. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00322.x. McAdam, Doug. "Recruitment to High-Risk Activism: The Case of Freedom Summer." American Journal of Sociology 92, no. 1 (1986): 64–90. https://doi.org/10.1086/228463. Viterna, Jocelyn. "Pulled, Pushed, and Persuaded: Explaining Women’s Mobilization into the Salvadoran Guerrilla Army." American Journal of Sociology 112, no. 1 (2006): 1–45. https://doi.org/10.1086/502690. |
| Strong ties to significant others | Static protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | The article states that it is not only the absence of ties to rebels that matters, it is the presence of strong ties to significant others. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | The literature review mentions four articles: Viterna, Jocelyn. "Pulled, Pushed, and Persuaded: Explaining Women’s Mobilization into the Salvadoran Guerrilla Army." American Journal of Sociology 112, no. 1 (2006): 1–45. https://doi.org/10.1086/502690. Viterna, Jocelyn. Women in War: The Micro-Processes of Mobilization in El Salvador. New York: Oxford University Press, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199843633.001.0001. Fujii, Lee Ann. "The Power of Local Ties: Popular Participation in the Rwandan Genocide." Security Studies 17, no. 3 (2008): 568–97. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636410802319578. Fujii, Lee Ann. Killing Neighbors: Webs of Violence in Rwanda. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2009. https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780801477133/killing-neighbors/ |
| Disapproving community networks | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Disapproving community networks socialize individuals to adopt non-participatory identities. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | The literature review mentions one article: Shesterinina, Anastasia. Mobilizing in Uncertainty: Collective Identities and War in Abkhazia. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2021. https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501753763/mobilizing-in-uncertainty/ |
| Individuals’ embeddedness in disapproving networks | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Individuals’ embeddedness in disapproving networks functions as a barrier to participation. were participation is framed in negative terms and nobody is part of or had connections to armed groups, people adopt non-participatory identities that discourage participation (Hensby 2017). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | One article is mentioned in support: Hensby, Alexander. "Networks of Non-Participation: Comparing ‘Supportive’, ‘Unsupportive’ and ‘Undecided’ Non-Participants in the UK Student Protests against Fees and Cuts." Sociology 51, no. 5 (2017): 957–74. https://doi.org/10.1177/0038038515608113. |
| Social ties in a system of multiple interdependencies (i.e., multiple social ties) | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | For those embedded in a system of multiple interdependencies, the ties discouraging participation are sometimes more salient than those promoting recruitment (Fujii 2014; Viterna 2006; Wood 2003). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | This is one of the empirical findings of the article. Three articles are mentioned: Fujii, Lee Ann. "Rescuers and Killer-Rescuers During the Rwanda Genocide." In Resisting Genocide, edited by Jacques Semelin, Claire Andrieu, and Sarah Gensburger, 145–58. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199333493.003.0010. Viterna, Jocelyn. "Pulled, Pushed, and Persuaded: Explaining Women’s Mobilization into the Salvadoran Guerrilla Army." American Journal of Sociology 112, no. 1 (2006): 1–45. https://doi.org/10.1086/502690. Wood, Elisabeth Jean. Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808685. |
| Communal normative pressure to join a violent armed group | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | When many other community members participate, this increases the costs and social pressures of non-participation. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | Two books are cited in support: Petersen, Roger Dale. Resistance and Rebellion : Lessons from Eastern Europe. Cambridge; Cambridge University Press, 2001. Taylor, Michael. Rationality and Revolution. Cambridge; Cambridge University Press, 1988. |
| Strong community ties, primary group cohesion, peer pressure, and social sanctions | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | Two books and two articles are cited in support: Kalyvas, Stathis N. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge ; Cambridge University Press, 2006. Mironova, Vera, Loubna Mrie, and Sam Whitt. "Fight or flight in civil war? Evidence from rebel-controlled Syria." SSRN Working Paper, (2014). http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2478682 Petersen, Roger Dale. Resistance and Rebellion: Lessons from Eastern Europe. Cambridge; Cambridge University Press, 2001. Taylor, Michael. Rationality and Revolution. Cambridge; Cambridge University Press, 1988. |
| Absence of nationals as key leaders of insurgent groups | Static protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | While the civil wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone were initially largely externally driven, the key leaders of the insurgent groups were nationals of those countries, which appeared not to be the case with the attacks on Guinea. Inasmuch as there were rumours of the involvement of Guineans, no Guinean came forward to claim responsibility for the attacks, unlike Liberia and Sierra Leone were Charles Taylor and Foday Sankoh, respectively, claimed responsibility and encouraged their nationals to join the revolutions. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Country | Unspecified | Youth, Adults | No differentiation | Guinea | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article uses Gersovite and Kriger's (2013) definition of civil war and defines it as the following "a politically organized, large-scale, sustained, physically violent conflict that occurs within a country principally among large/numerically important groups of its inhabitants or citizens over the monopoly of physical force within the country. Civil wars usually have incumbent governments that control the state and have a monopoly of force before the civil war and challengers." | Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | The study employed an ethnographic approach with 232 semi-structured questionnaires administered to 129 male and 103 female respondents between the ages of 18 and 35 years. An additional 264 questionnaires were administered to 151 male and 113 female respondents between the ages of 36 and 60 years. Data were collected from August to November 2016 and from January to March 2018, when follow-up interviews were done with some of the respondents. Additionally, 31 government officials, 10 academics, 18 security and peacebuilding experts, and 59 civil society actors were either interviewed or participated in focus group discussions (FGDs) in all the locations studied. The actors engaged were selected based on their experience working for youth-related Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) of the Government of Guinea, experts in security and peacebuilding-related issues, or they worked for youth-focused civil society organisations, especially during the conflicts in the region. | Finding of the primary article Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 The overall findings of this study show that Charles Taylor and Foday Sankoh’s Revolutionary United Front (RUF) were blamed for the attacks in Guinea. |
| Peers, friends and family are already members of armed groups | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | were peers and friends have already joined an armed force or armed group, the need to belong can drive children to join up. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Sense of belonging | Children | No differentiation | Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, Iraq | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | The study states that many children interviewed in Iraq in 2017 reported that they first heard about armed actors from family members. In Central African Republic and Colombia parents and friends were said to exert the most influence on a child’s decision to join or not join an armed group. Children in World Vision programme areas in CAR and the DRC also mentioned wanting to be with friends who had already joined or being recruited directly by them. In CAR some research participants talked about children coming back with money, new shoes and other goods, and encouraging their peers to join them and get the same things. The study also cites three reports in support of this risk factor: UNICEF and Transition International, "Executive Summary: Assessment of the Push and Pull Factors of Child Association with Armed Actors in Iraq, Opportunities and Capacities to Support Reintegration and Prevention" 2017. https://childrenandarmedconflict.un.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GCR-Gaps-and-Needs-10.2020.pdf O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata UNICEF and Transition International. "Child Protection Straegy: Executive Summary" 2021. https://www.unicef.org/media/104411/file/Child-Protection-Strategy-Summary-2021.pdf |
| Community and family expectations that individuals will fight to protect the community | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | The reality of conflict today in protracted crises, were the movement of armed groups is unpredictable and villages may be repeatedly attacked over a period of time, creates a sense in communities that they must protect themselves. were the community views adolescents more as adults than children, this call to arms extends to them. It is not that children are singled out to protect the community, but rather that all community members (male and sometimes female) are expected to play their part. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Colombia, South Sudan, Iraq | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | The study concludes that the reality of conflict today in protracted crises, were the movement of armed groups is unpredictable and villages may be repeatedly attacked over a period of time, creates a sense in communities that they must protect themselves. World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/it-takes-world/publication/no-choice-it-takes-world-end-use-child-soldiers |
| Faith leaders, children and youth groups and women’s groups actively discourage engagement with armed groups | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Given that peer pressure and a need to belong are factors in recruitment, working with child and youth leaders to raise awareness of the harm associated with armed groups can help to prevent recruitment. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Central African Republic | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Research conducted by Child Frontiers for World Vision showed that faith leaders are, in many cases, key influencers in children not joining armed forces or armed groups. In Central African Republic, for example, religious groups actively discourage children from engaging with armed groups through messaging during mass, prayer and group activities. World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/it-takes-world/publication/no-choice-it-takes-world-end-use-child-soldiers |
| Community-based child protection networks | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Community-based protection systems can strengthen reporting and referral mechanisms and identify the most vulnerable children and families therefore helping to prevent recruitment. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Unspecified |
| Having a boyfriend/girlfriend already in the armed group | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Community expectations for vengeance | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging, (Psychosocial) Emotions | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence, Forgiveness/revenge | The social influence and community expectations outside of the household through peer and community pressure play a large role in motivating young people to engage with the armed groups. Armed groups leverage this social pressure, which may include community expectations for vengeance, in their recruiting efforts. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Kurdistan Republic of Iraq, DRC, Mali, and South Sudan | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Four references are cited in support: Hall, Erica. "No Choice: It takes a world to end the use of child soldiers." World Vis Int (2019). Revkin, Mara Redlich. "‘I Am Nothing without a Weapon’: Understanding Child Recruitment and Use by Armed Groups in Syria and Iraq." Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict (2018): 104-140. O’Neil, Siobhan. "Trajectories of children into and out of non-state armed groups." Cradled by conflict: child involvement with armed groups in contemporary conflict. United Nations University (2018): 38-79. Bleck, Jaimie, Marc-André Boisvert, and Boukary Sangaré. "‘I Joined to Save My People’: Children and Non-State Armed Groups in Mali." Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University (2018): 142-177. |
| Deliberate state action necessary for diffusion to occur, including evangelization, the deliberate encouragement of conflict abroad by former rebel groups that have taken over their home government; expulsion, the deliberate movement of combatants across borders by state governments in conflict; and meddling with overt partiality, the deliberate interference in another state’s conflict by a state government that subsequently leads to conflict in the interfering state. | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Interference | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Sovereignty violation | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One article is referenced in support: Black, Nathan. The Spread of Violent Civil Conflict: Rare, State-Driven, and Preventable. Cambridge, MA: Department of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2061149 |
| Government backing the winning party in neighboring conflicts | Static protective factor | (Political) Interference | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Sovereignty violation | The Touré and Conté governments tended to back the winning party in neighbourhood conflicts. This repeatedly led to a neighbouring government deeply in its patron’s debt, or at least inclined towards friendly relations | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Guinea | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article uses Gersovite and Kriger's (2013) definition of civil war and defines it as the following "a politically organized, large-scale, sustained, physically violent conflict that occurs within a country principally among large/numerically important groups of its inhabitants or citizens over the monopoly of physical force within the country. Civil wars usually have incumbent governments that control the state and have a monopoly of force before the civil war and challengers." | Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | The study employed an ethnographic approach with 232 semi-structured questionnaires administered to 129 male and 103 female respondents between the ages of 18 and 35 years. An additional 264 questionnaires were administered to 151 male and 113 female respondents between the ages of 36 and 60 years. Data were collected from August to November 2016 and from January to March 2018, when follow-up interviews were done with some of the respondents. Additionally, 31 government officials, 10 academics, 18 security and peacebuilding experts, and 59 civil society actors were either interviewed or participated in focus group discussions (FGDs) in all the locations studied. The actors engaged were selected based on their experience working for youth-related Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) of the Government of Guinea, experts in security and peacebuilding-related issues, or they worked for youth-focused civil society organisations, especially during the conflicts in the region. | One article provides support for this protective factor: Arieff, Alexis. “Still Standing: Neighbourhood Wars and Political Stability in Guinea.” The Journal of Modern African Studies 47, no. 3 (2009): 331–48. http://www.jstor.org/stable/40538315. |
| A desire to become ‘famous and admired’ | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | One article and one book are cited in support: Brett, Rachel, Margaret McCallin, and Rhona O’Shea. Children: Invisible Soldiers. Report on the Participation of Children in Armed Conflicts and International Disturbances and Tensions for the United Nation Study in the Impact of Armed Conflict on Children. Geneva: The Quaker United Nations Office, 1996. Wessells, Michael. Child Soldiers: From Violence to Protection. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2006. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1dv0trf |
| The pleasure of agency from violent armed group participation | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | Individuals derive pleasure from participation for moral and emotional reasons. These can include taking revenge against an aggressor, or deriving reputation and status from being a member of an armed group. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One book and three articles are cited in support: Wood, Elisabeth J. Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador. Cambridge University Press; 2003. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808685 Costalli, Stefano, and Andrea Ruggeri. “Indignation, Ideologies, and Armed Mobilization: Civil War in Italy, 1943-45.” International Security 40, no. 2 (2015): 119–157. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00218 Souleimanov, Emil Aslan, and Huseyn Aliyev. “Blood Revenge and Violent Mobilization: Evidence from the Chechen Wars.” International security 40, no. 2 (2015): 158–180. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00219 de Posada, Cristina Villegas. “Motives for the Enlistment and Demobilization of Illegal Armed Combatants in Colombia.” Peace and conflict 15, no. 3 (2009): 263–280. https://doi.org/10.1080/10781910903032609 |
| The transnational effects of perceived success of conflicts elsewhere | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | Perhaps the most direct transnational effect on the outbreak of civil war is the potential role of conflict spillovers or effects of ongoing conflict in a neighboring country. Resort to conflict is often shaped by the perceived experiences and successes of tactics used elsewhere, and an active conflict in a neighboring country can provide easier access to arms or provide logistical opportunities. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Rhodesia in the 1970s; Syria. | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | An alternative to traditional binary distinctions is to approach individual conflicts as broader clusters that may fall somewhere along a spectrum from clearly domestic civil war to clearly international conflict, and may include a complex set of transnational interactions between non-state and state actors in multiple countries. | Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Civil War from a Transnational Perspective." Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. 28 Jun. 2017 https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.312 | Academic | 2017 | Overall review | The literature review focuses on empirical and large-N comparative quantitative literature in conflict research, with some bias towards early influential studies that shaped the research agenda. | The overall review provides examples to support this claim: "For example, the rebel uprising against the white government in Rhodesia in the 1970s emulated and drew directly on the experiences of independence struggles elsewhere in Africa. More recently, the Gadaffi regime's relatively quick loss of territorial control at the outset of the Libyan uprising inspired many in Syria to think that a violent rebellion could be successful in unseating the Assad government." |
| Individuals place value on the act of participation in armed conflict | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | Unspecified | Unspecified | In her study of peasant involvement in El Salvador, Wood (2003) finds that the primary reasons for active participation in the violent conflict were effectively nonmaterial and largely performative. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | El Salvador | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified. The review mostly focuses on how the process of identifying with any social group (class, party, gender, ethnicity, religion, etc.) could affect behavior, including violent behaviour. | Kalin, Michael, and Nicholas Sambanis. “How to Think About Social Identity.” Annual review of political science 21, no. 1 (2018): 239–257. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-042016-024408 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This review synthesizes recent scholarship that incorporates a social identity perspective on political behavior, from voting and redistribution to violence and conflict. | One study is cited in support of this risk factor: Wood, Elisabeth Jean. Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2003. |
| Pleasure derived from the sense of agency that comes from working with others to accomplish political, economic, and social changes | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | Unspecified | Unspecified | In her study of peasant involvement in El Salvador, Wood (2003) finds that the primary reasons for active participation in the violent conflict were effectively nonmaterial and largely performative. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | El Salvador | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified. The review mostly focuses on how the process of identifying with any social group (class, party, gender, ethnicity, religion, etc.) could affect behavior, including violent behaviour. | Kalin, Michael, and Nicholas Sambanis. “How to Think About Social Identity.” Annual review of political science 21, no. 1 (2018): 239–257. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-042016-024408 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This review synthesizes recent scholarship that incorporates a social identity perspective on political behavior, from voting and redistribution to violence and conflict. | One study is cited in support of this risk factor: Wood, Elisabeth Jean. Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2003. |
| Ideas of power and authority conferred through participation in an armed group | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Admiration of the armed forces/groups' accomplishments | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Desire to defend one’s community/homeland | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance, Approval/disapproval of violence | Families, communities and children themselves consider it normal and a source of pride that young men defend their land - families and community leaders are said to encourage this - creating a push to join an armed group. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Family and community pressure | Children | Male | Iraq, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Overall finding of interviews with child soldiers in a number of countries - In Iraq in particular, but also in CAR, DRC and South Sudan, the literature shows that children join armed groups in order to defend their homeland. World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/it-takes-world/publication/no-choice-it-takes-world-end-use-child-soldiers |
| Political instability | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Moments, (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Strength rule of law/institutions | Unspecified | Political instability, measured through Polity IV regime index, indicating whether the country had a three-or greater change on the Polity IV regime index in any of the three years prior to the country-year in question. | Statistically significant result in a quantitative analysis for overall intrastate conflict | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Fearon & Laitin (2003a) Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| Being a weak state | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Strength rule of law/institutions | Civil wars have had structural roots, in the combination of a simple, robust military technology and decolonization, which created an international system numerically dominated by fragile states with limited administrative control of their peripheries... . Analysis suggests that while economic growth may correlate with fewer civil wars, the causal mechanism is more likely a lack of a well-financed and administratively competent government (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 88). | Strength of a state, defined as the ability of a government to administer its territory effectively through four basic state capacities: the capacity to mobilize financial resources (extractive capacity), the capacity to guide national socioeconomic development (steering capacity), the capacity to dominate by using symbols and creating consensus (legitimation capacity), and the capacity to dominate by the use or threat of force (coercive capacity). (Skocpol, 1985) | Unspecified | Onset | Country | While payoff from a weak victory may be equally modest, not all prizes naturally scale up and down with per capita income and state weakness. For instance, the discovery of natural resources, by suddenly increasing the rent-controlled by a weak state, can become a destabilizing factor, a “curse.” Likewise, if there is intrinsic value (over and beyond economics) attached by a group to religious, cultural, or political dominance, weak states can contribute to conflict. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | One source is cited in support; Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| Lacking state capacity, as measured by government budget in aggregate GDP | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Strength rule of law/institutions | Unspecified | State capacity, measured by the share of government budget in aggregate GDP. | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | One source is cited in support; Snider, Lawrence W. "The Political Performance of Governments, External Debt Service, and Domestic Political Violence." International Political Science Review 11 (1990): 403–22. https://doi.org/10.1177/019251219001100401 |
| State weakness | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Strength rule of law/institutions | Unspecified | State strength measured through bureaucratic, economic, and patrimonial elements as three factors – or dimensions of state capacity: 1) rational legality, captures bureaucratic and administrative capacity; 2) rentier-autocraticness, and 3) neopatrimoniality, capture aspects of state capacity that cut across theoretical categories. | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | The review references two articles: Hendrix, Cullen S. "Measuring State Capacity: Theoretical and Empirical Implications for the Study of Civil Conflict." Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 3 (2010): 273–85. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310361838 Fearon, James D. "Governance and Civil War Onset." World Development Report: 6406082-1283882418764. Prepared for the World Bank’s 2011 World Development Report on “Conflict, Security, and Development.” https://hdl.handle.net/10986/9123 |
| Countries with higher levels of state capacity (characteristic of a country that is a potential target of diffusion) | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Strength rule of law/institutions | Highly capable states have the tools to confine domestic unrest to legal action rather than rebellion. Also, such states are arguably better equipped to set up “firewalls” through efficient border control and thus prevent some of the spillover of war externalities, such as the transfer of arms and mercenaries across borders. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One article is referenced, showing empirical support for this effect: Braithwaite, Alex. (2010) Resisting Infection: How State Capacity Conditions Conflict Contagion. Journal of Peace Research 47 (3): 311–319. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310362164 |
| Deliberate action from a state with strong state capacity to absorb the artifacts of civil conflict that threaten to spill across international boundaries – these include flows of refugees of war, weapons and illicit materials smuggled across borders, and the physical actions of the war itself. | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Strength rule of law/institutions | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One article is referenced in support: Braithwaite, Alex. "Resisting Infection: How State Capacity Conditions Conflict Contagion." Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 3 (2010): 311–19. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310362164 |
| State capacity | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Strength rule of law/institutions | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Country | We know in the case of civil conflicts that their materiel and effects spillover across borders (Murdoch and Sandler 2002, 2004; Buhaug and Gleditsch 2008), that this dispersion is hastened by refugee flows (Salehyan and Gleditsch 2006) and ameliorated by state capacity (Braithwaite 2010), and that both transmission and emulation appear to pose the greatest threat to relatively “open” autocracies (Maves and Braithwaite 2013). | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors define terrorism as "the premeditated use or threat to use violence by individuals or subnational groups against noncombatants in order to obtain a political or social objective through the intimidation of a large audience beyond that of the immediate victims” (Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev 2011, 321). The authors note that their definition of terrorism does not include acts of terrorism committed by the government, focuses exclusively upon politically motivated acts, and involves attacks against civilians, officials, and/or noncombatants. | Braithwaite, Alex, and Tiffany S Chu. “Civil Conflicts Abroad, Foreign Fighters, and Terrorism at Home.” The Journal of conflict resolution 62, no. 8 (2018): 1636–1660. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717707304 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This quantitative study builds a dataset to examine the relationship between the number of terrorist attacks taking place every year in most countries, and several explanatory factors. The number of terrorist attacks per country/year include both domestic and transnational terrorist activities, and are drawn from Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev’s (2011) version of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). | One article is mentioned in support of this protective factor: Braithwaite, Alex. "Resisting Infection: How State Capacity Conditions Conflict Contagion." Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 3 (2010): 311–19. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310362164 |
| States with higher capacity or greater capacity for co-opting opposition groups in ways that can serve as an alternative to violence | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Strength rule of law/institutions | States may take countermeasures or try to insulate themselves from potential spillover effects. Some highlight how certain types of states are less receptive to diffusion in the first place, for example, due to higher barriers to political mobilization in states with higher capacity or greater capacity for co-opting opposition groups in ways that can serve as an alternative to violence. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | An alternative to traditional binary distinctions is to approach individual conflicts as broader clusters that may fall somewhere along a spectrum from clearly domestic civil war to clearly international conflict, and may include a complex set of transnational interactions between non-state and state actors in multiple countries. | Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Civil War from a Transnational Perspective." Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. 28 Jun. 2017 https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.312 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | The literature review focuses on empirical and large-N comparative quantitative literature in conflict research, with some bias towards early influential studies that shaped the research agenda. | Two articles are cited in support of this protective factor: Braithwaite, Alex. "Resisting Infection: How State Capacity Conditions Conflict Contagion." Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 3 (2010): 311–19. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310362164 Maves, Jessica, and Alex Braithwaite. "Autocratic Institutions and Civil Conflict Contagion." Journal of Politics 75, no. 2 (2013): 478–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000157 |
| Weak or non-existant state structurers | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Strength rule of law/institutions | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Two reports are cited in support: Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Una Guerra Sin Edad: Informe Nacional De Reclutamiento Y Utilización De Niños, Niñas Y Adolescentes En El Conflicto Armado Colombiano. Bogotá, Colombia, 2017 O'Neil, Siobhan, and Kato Van Broeckhoven. Cradled by Conflict: Child Involvement with Armed Groups in Contemporary Conflict. New York: United Nations University, 2018. https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:6409#viewMetadata |
| Countries with weak institutions that experience sudden, substantial increases in foreign aid inflows | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice, (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Strength rule of law/institutions, Foreign aid | Besley & Persson (2011) contend that while positive aid shocks amplify resources of interest to governments and oppositions, which may motivate them to invest in violence, countries with strong institutions can provide the proper checks and balances against such predation. Countries with weak institutions that experience sudden, substantial increases in foreign aid inflows would not be able to prevent such predation. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country, Transnational | Predation arguments outlined by Findley (2018) include the looting of aid by rebels and aid serving as a prize which rebels and governments fight over - these arguments are especially common among weak states. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The review study focuses on how foreign aid impacts the dynamics and onset of civil war. The authors state that civil war broadly refers to the joint production of violence between a government and one or more opposition groups in which the number of battle-related deaths exceeds a stated threshold. They note that most scholars use 1,000 battle-related deaths to qualify as civil war. | Findley, Michael G. "Does foreign aid build peace?." Annual Review of Political Science 21, no. 1 (2018): 359-384. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041916-015516 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on foreign aid and civil war | One article is cited in support: Besley, Timothy, and Torsten Persson. "The logic of political violence." The Quarterly Journal of Economics 126, no. 3 (2011): 1411-1445. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjr025 |
| Mental health and psychosocial support for children who are affected by conflict | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Therapy | Children in some conflict areas cite vengeance as a key driver in their recruitment. were children have witnessed and experienced violence, death, fear and deprivation linked to conflict, their mental well-being is naturally affected. Mental health and psychosocial support are vital to help them deal with the emotions and address anger linked to what they have seen and experienced. Providing such support could reduce the imperative to join an armed group for vengeance. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | The study states that mental health and psychosocial support could reduce child recruitment among those who wish to join armed groups for reasons of vengeance. | Children | No differentiation | Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Colombia, South Sudan. Iraq | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | Unspecified | World Vision International. No Choice: It Takes a World to End the Use of Child Soldiers. February 4, 2019. https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/WV_ITAW_No_Choice_Policy_Report_2019%20SP%20Online_2.pdf | Grey literature | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | This report draws on World Vision’s experience working on issues related to children and armed conflict as well as on the findings of a multi-country study conducted for World Vision by Child Frontiers. The study included primary qualitative research in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Colombia, as well as desk research on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and South Sudan. The primary research relied on focus groups of affected community members, key informant interviews, and testimonies from people who were associated with armed forces or armed groups as children. | Unspecified |
| Family resilience in a civil war context | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Trauma/resilience | Resilience describes the social process through which families cope with and adjust to the deprivations and constraints of living in a civil war context. It recognizes the relevance of a household’s socio-economic position in shaping its capacity to cope with deprivations but puts equal weight on the active relation people develop towards deprivations (Estêvão, Calado, and Capucha 2017). Even if severely affected by violence and displacement, families may develop the adaptive capacity (Krause 2018) and the mental spirit to handle the disturbances and maintain a sense of normality. The conviction of being able to cope trumps the frustration about hardship, thereby counteracting a central push factor that promotes participation in violence. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | This is one of the empirical findings of the article. Two articles are mentioned: Estêvão, Pedro, Alexandre Calado, and Luís Capucha. "Resilience: Moving from a ‘Heroic’ Notion to a Sociological Concept." Sociologia, Problemas e Práticas, no. 85 (2017): 9–25. https://doi.org/10.7458/SPP20178510115 Krause, Jana. Resilient Communities: Non-Violence and Civilian Agency in Communal War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108675079. |
| Weak states combined with politically mobilized minorities | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State, (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Treatment of minorities, Strength rule of law/institutions | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | In regions were weak states combine with politically mobilized minorities, civil wars are most common. One book is cited in support: Miller, Benjamin. States, Nations, and the Great Powers: The Sources of Regional War and Peace. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007. |
| Troop shortages and the need to maximise recruitment | Static risk factor | (Security) Armed Groups | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Troop shortage | Recruiters often target children based on the simple need to fill ranks, especially when armed forces face shortages of traditional adult recruits. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | Three articles are cited in support. Blattman, Christopher, and Jeannie Annan. "Child combatants in northern Uganda: Reintegration myths and realities." In Security and Post-conflict Reconstruction, pp. 123-145. Routledge, 2008. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780203886915-13/child-combatants-northern-uganda-reintegration-myths-realities-christopher-blattman-jeannie-annan Twum-Danso, Afua. "Africa’s Young Soldiers: The Co-Option of Childhood." Institute for Security Studies Monographs 2003, no. 82 (2003): 55. https://hdl.handle.net/10520/EJC48736 Woods, Dorothea. Child Soldiers: The Recruitment of Children into Armed Forces and Their Participation in Hostilities. Quaker Peace and Service, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781780685137.002 |
| An armed group in popular decline needing a source of labor | Static risk factor | (Security) Armed Groups | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Troop shortage | Women provide a much-needed source of labor for armed groups otherwise in popular decline, and are thus more likely to be recruited. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Female | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article analyzes why women join armed group. "Armed rebel group” refers to opposition actors, as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), as “any non-governmental group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of [a] stated incompatibility” (Pettersson 2014, Sec. 4). | Henshaw, Alexis Leanna. "Why Women Rebel: Greed, Grievance, and Women in Armed Rebel Groups" Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no. 3 (2016): 204-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogw008 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | An individual study examining why women join armed rebel groups, with relevant literature cited in the introduction | One book chapter and one article are cited in support: Mazurana, Dyan. "Women, Girls, and Non-State Armed Opposition Groups." In Women and Wars, edited by Cohn Carol, 146 – 68. Cambridge: Polity Press, 2013. Davis, Jessica. “Evolution of the Global Jihad: Female Suicide Bombers in Iraq.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 36, no. 4 (2013): 279–291. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2013.763598 |
| Vertical inequality | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Vertical (in)equality | The authors argue several reasons why there is little evidence of inequality's effect on civil war. It is plausible that the dominant form taken by the class struggle envisioned by Marx is social unrest—strikes,demonstrations, etc.—rather than armed civil war. Second, all the contributions to this literature lack a well-defined model that informs and shapes the empirical test. Third, class conflict is often latent and inadequately expressed because, in a word, the rich have the means but not the motive to express this conflict, while the poor have the motive but lack the means. Finally, the fundamental tenets of the Marxian position could, in turn, be challenged. There are reasons to believe that economic similarity may be just as conflictual as economic inequality and, what is more, that a fight between two economically similar groups could be bitter and prolonged. | Vertical inequality of a country measured using the Gini index score. | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Overall review | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | The authors write that researchers, mostly in political science, have tried for decades to find a convincing empirical connection (see, e.g., Nagel 1974, Midlarski 1988, Muller et al. 1989). Lichbach (1989) mentions 43 papers on the subject, some, according to him, “best forgotten.” Some studies support each possible relationship between inequality and conflict, and others show no relationship at all. A recurrent observation is that under several measures of inequality, including the Gini index, conflict appears to be low both for low and for high values of inequality. Midlarsky (1988, p. 491) remarks on the “fairly typical finding of a weak, barely significant relationship between inequality and political violence ...rarely is there a robust relationship discovered between the two variables.” Midlarski, Michael I. "Rulers and the Ruled: Patterned Inequality and the Onset of Mass Political Violence." American Political Science Review 82, no. 2 (1988): 491–509. https://doi.org/10.2307/1957397 Lichbach, Mark I. "An Evaluation of 'Does Economic Inequality Breed Political Conflict?' Studies." World Politics 41, no. 4 (1989): 431–70. https://doi.org/10.2307/2010526 |
| Vertical inequality (i.e. differences in resources or means between individuals or households) | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Vertical (in)equality | Unspecified | Vertical inequality measured by the GINI coefficient. | A regression analysis showed no significant effect on the risk of civil war. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Social capital | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Weak/strong social systems | Guinea had the necessary social capital to discourage young people from engaging in violence. This social connection appeared to have been missing in Sierra Leone and Liberia were young people had lost confidence in both political elites and community leaders whom they sought revenge against. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Societal | Unspecified | Youth, Adults | No differentiation | Guinea | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article uses Gersovite and Kriger's (2013) definition of civil war and defines it as the following "a politically organized, large-scale, sustained, physically violent conflict that occurs within a country principally among large/numerically important groups of its inhabitants or citizens over the monopoly of physical force within the country. Civil wars usually have incumbent governments that control the state and have a monopoly of force before the civil war and challengers." | Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | The study employed an ethnographic approach with 232 semi-structured questionnaires administered to 129 male and 103 female respondents between the ages of 18 and 35 years. An additional 264 questionnaires were administered to 151 male and 113 female respondents between the ages of 36 and 60 years. Data were collected from August to November 2016 and from January to March 2018, when follow-up interviews were done with some of the respondents. Additionally, 31 government officials, 10 academics, 18 security and peacebuilding experts, and 59 civil society actors were either interviewed or participated in focus group discussions (FGDs) in all the locations studied. The actors engaged were selected based on their experience working for youth-related Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) of the Government of Guinea, experts in security and peacebuilding-related issues, or they worked for youth-focused civil society organisations, especially during the conflicts in the region. | Finding of the primary article Bangura, Ibrahim. “Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin.” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 14, no. 1 (2019): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1542316619833286 This protective factor, highlighted in the overall findings of this study, is supported by an interview conducted with a staff member of the University of Conakry on February 16, 2018 |
| Weather shocks (rainfall) affecting the labor intensive agricultural sector | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Weather/Climate | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Weather shocks | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | One article is cited in support; Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach." Journal of Political Economy 112 (2004): 725–53. https://doi.org/10.1086/421174 |
| Ethnic fractionalization | Dynamic risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Ethnic diversity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Ethnic conflict | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Several articles are cited showing mixed results on the relationship of ethnic fractionalization and conflict; Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach." Journal of Political Economy 112 (2004): 725–53. https://doi.org/10.1086/421174 Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "On Economic Causes of Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 50 (1998): 563–73. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/50.4.563 Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 56 (2004a): 563–95. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064 |
| Fractionalization | Dynamic risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ethnic diversity | Fractionalization affects private prizes, which are diluted by group size: The larger the group, the smaller the return per capita. Therefore, there being more separated and smaller groups (lots of fractionalization) is likely to motivate fighting between groups and is likely to generate conflict as the "winner takes all" | Fractionalization in a country measured as the probability that two individuals drawn at random from society will belong to different groups (classical measure of fractionalization). | Statistically significant result in a logit analysis - These results confirm the relevance of both polarization and fractionalization in predicting conflict once the variables are interacted with relative publicness (whether the prizes are shared across the country like accepted language or religion, or just taken by the victor, like minerals) of the prize of conflict | Onset | Country | The size and distance of the group affect payouts of public prizes from an eventual conflict - larger and more disconnected groups are more likely to want large public prizes (such as newly accepted religions, cultures, norms), and thus more likely to be motivated for conflict as they are more likely to have differing goals from other groups Their results confirm the relevance of both polarization and fractionalization in predicting conflict once the variables are interacted with relative publicness (whether the prizes are shared across the country like accepted language or religion, or just taken by the victor, like minerals) of the prize of conflict | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Ethnic conflict | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Esteban et al. (2012a,b) Esteban, Joan, and Debraj Ray. "Linking Conflict to Inequality and Polarization." American Economic Review 101 (2011): 1345–74. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.4.1345 Esteban, Joan, and Debraj Ray. "A Model of Ethnic Conflict." Journal of the European Economic Association 9 (2011): 496–521. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2010.01016.x |
| Ethnic polarization | Dynamic risk factor | Demographic, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ethnic diversity, Polarization | Unspecified | Ethnic polarization measured through the "RQ index of ethnic polarization", or the Reynal-Querol index, a statistical measure used to quantify the level of ethnic or social polarization within a population, essentially indicating how divided a society is based on different group identities. The index is calculated based on the population shares of different groups and their pairwise distances, with a higher value signifying greater polarization. | Ethnic polarization has a positive and statistically significant effect on the incidence of civil wars. | Onset | Country | No interactions mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Ethnic conflict | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Finding from: Montalvo, José G., and Marta Reynal-Querol. "Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict and Civil War." American Economic Review 95 (2005): 796–816. https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828054201468 |
| Polarization, measured as the size and distances between groups | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Polarization | The size and distance of the group affect payouts of public prizes from an eventual conflict - larger and more disconnected groups are more likely to want large public prizes (such as newly accepted religions, cultures, norms), and thus more likely to be motivated for conflict as they are more likely to have differing goals from other groups | Polarization levels in a country measured as the intergroup perceived distances and their size. | Statistically significant result in a logit analysis - These results confirm the relevance of both polarization and fractionalization in predicting conflict once the variables are interacted with relative publicness (whether the prizes are shared across the country like accepted language or religion, or just taken by the victor, like minerals) of the prize of conflict | Onset | Country | The size and distance of the group affect payouts of public prizes from an eventual conflict - larger and more disconnected groups are more likely to want large public prizes (such as newly accepted religions, cultures, norms), and thus more likely to be motivated for conflict as they are more likely to have differing goals from other groups Their results confirm the relevance of both polarization and fractionalization in predicting conflict once the variables are interacted with relative publicness (whether the prizes are shared across the country like accepted language or religion, or just taken by the victor, like minerals) of the prize of conflict | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Ethnic conflict | The authors refer to civil war as a subclassification of social unrest. Though they don't define civil war, they reference civil war onset data as described by Fearon & Laitin (2003a); (a) “fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, nonstate groups,” having (b) a yearly average of at least 100 deaths, with a cumulative total of at least 1,000 deaths and (c) at least 100 deaths on both sides (to rule out genocides or one-sided massacres) (Fearon & Laitin 2003a, p. 76). | Ray, Debraj and Joan Esteban. "Conflict and Development." Annual Review of Economics 9, no. 1 (2017): 263–293. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of social conflict and economic development, especially on the distribution of that wealth along ethnic. The authors cite some qualitative research, but mostly focus on key quantitative studies using regression analyses | Recreated table and findings from Esteban et al. (2012a,b) Esteban, Joan, and Debraj Ray. "Linking Conflict to Inequality and Polarization." American Economic Review 101 (2011): 1345–74. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.4.1345 Esteban, Joan, and Debraj Ray. "A Model of Ethnic Conflict." Journal of the European Economic Association 9 (2011): 496–521. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2010.01016.x |
| Territorial power sharing | Dynamic protective factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Political grievances/satisfaction | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Ethnic conflict | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | The review references one article: Cederman, Lars-Erik, Simon Hug, Andreas Scha ̈del, and Julian Wucherpfennig. 2015. “Territorial Autonomy in the Shadow of Conflict: Too Little, Too Late?” American Political Science Review 109 (2): 354-70. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055415000118 |
| Civil wars that ended in a rebel victory increase the supply of foreign fighters on the “global market" | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events | Civil wars throughout modern history have attracted foreign fighters who come to support either the government or the armed opposition, and the participation of such fighters can lead to destabilization once they leave the civil war state. Ongoing and concluded civil wars that ended in a rebel victory increase the supply of foreign fights on the “global market,” and the movement of those fighters back home or to other destinations can increase the risk of terrorism there (Chu & Braithwaite, 2017). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil war spillover, where civil wars are defined as conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. While different definitions and criteria can lead to the inclusion or exclusion of particular events in different studies, this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations. The overview of scholarship in this area thus includes studies that apply different definitions of “civil war.” The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references one article: Chu, T. S., and A. Braithwaite. "The Impact of Foreign Fighters on Civil Conflict Outcomes." Research & Politics 4, no. 3 (2017): 2053168017722059. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2053168017722059 |
| Being an adolescent aged 13–18 (as a risk factor for becoming a child soldier) | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age | Adolescents aged 13–18 years are particularly vulnerable to voluntary recruitment due to their stage of cognitive development and transitional role in society, in which adolescents are still in the process of acquiring the ability to make rational decisions and have not yet fully developed the ability to understand mortality, leading to easier ‘voluntary’ recruitment and manipulation to engage in violence or extremist indoctrination | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | One article is cited in support: Betancourt, Theresa S, Ivelina Borisova, Timothy P Williams, Sarah E Meyers-Ohki, Julia E Rubin-Smith, Jeannie Annan, and Brandon A Kohrt. “Psychosocial Adjustment and Mental Health in Former Child Soldiers--Systematic Review of the Literature and Recommendations for Future Research.” Journal of child psychology and psychiatry 54, no. 1 (2013): 17–36. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-7610.2012.02620.x |
| A history of authoritarian regimes practicing exclusionary politics known for corrupt and bad governance | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Regime, (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Autoritarianism, Exclusion/inclusion, Strength rule of law/institutions | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover, Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Jordan, Bahrain, Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Egypt | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article reviews literature on civil wars, especially recent wars incited by rebel groups espousing extreme ideologies. While the author does not define an instrumental measurement for civil wars, they rely primarily on datasets from the Uppsala Conflict Data Project (UCDP). | Walter, Barbara F. “The New New Civil Wars.” Annual review of political science 20, no. 1 (2017): 469–486. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-060415-093921 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on civil war. | Four articles are cited to explain why other countries in the region of modern civil wars are at risk of "contagion" Walter, Barbara F. "Does conflict beget conflict? Explaining recurring civil war." Journal of peace research 41, no. 3 (2004): 371-388. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343304043775 Walter, Barbara F. "Why bad governance leads to repeat civil war." Journal of Conflict Resolution 59, no. 7 (2015): 1242-1272. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002714528006 Buhaug, Halvard. "Relative capability and rebel objective in civil war." Journal of Peace Research 43, no. 6 (2006): 691-708. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002714528006 Fearon, James D., Kimuli Kasara, and David D. Laitin. "Ethnic minority rule and civil war onset." American Political science review 101, no. 1 (2007): 187-193. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894211418426 Cederman, Lars-Erik, Andreas Wimmer, and Brian Min. "Why do ethnic groups rebel? New data and analysis." World politics 62, no. 1 (2010): 87-119. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887109990219 |
| Extremist rebel leaders being less likely to sell out once in power, or signaling that they are more likely to govern honorably once in office | Static risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Corruption/good governance | Espousing an extreme ideology such as Salafi-Jihadism could serve as an effective commitment device because it promises to punish individuals for bad behavior (Iannaccone 1992, Fearon 1995a, Bueno de Mesquita 2008; also see Berman 2009). In this way, rebel leaders can clearly signal that they are more likely to govern honorably once in office, making them potentially more attractive even to moderate citizens. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article reviews literature on civil wars, especially recent wars incited by rebel groups espousing extreme ideologies. While the author does not define an instrumental measurement for civil wars, they rely primarily on datasets from the Uppsala Conflict Data Project (UCDP). | Walter, Barbara F. “The New New Civil Wars.” Annual review of political science 20, no. 1 (2017): 469–486. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-060415-093921 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on civil war. | Four references are cited in support of this risk factor: Iannaccone, Laurence R. "Sacrifice and stigma: Reducing free-riding in cults, communes, and other collectives." Journal of political economy 100, no. 2 (1992): 271-291. https://doi.org/10.1086/261818 Fearon, James D. "Ethnic war as a commitment problem." In Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, pp. 2-5. 1994. Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan. “Terrorist Factions.” Quarterly journal of political science 3, no. 4 (2008): 399–418. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00008006 Berman, Eli. Radical, Religious, and Violent : The New Economics of Terrorism. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2009. |
| Having to absorb high numbers of refugees | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Demographic changes (incl. Migration/Forced diplacement) | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover, Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article reviews literature on civil wars, especially recent wars incited by rebel groups espousing extreme ideologies. While the author does not define an instrumental measurement for civil wars, they rely primarily on datasets from the Uppsala Conflict Data Project (UCDP). | Walter, Barbara F. “The New New Civil Wars.” Annual review of political science 20, no. 1 (2017): 469–486. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-060415-093921 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on civil war. | Three articles are referenced in support of this factor: Salehyan, Idean, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Refugees and the spread of civil war." International organization 60, no. 2 (2006): 335-366. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818306060103 Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Transnational dimensions of civil war." Journal of peace research 44, no. 3 (2007): 293-309. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343307076637 Salehyan, Idean, David Siroky, and Reed M. Wood. "External rebel sponsorship and civilian abuse: A principal-agent analysis of wartime atrocities." International Organization 68, no. 3 (2014): 633-661. https://doi.org/10.1017/S002081831400006X |
| High unemployment | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Chad, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, Nigeria, Chad, Mali, CAR, and Yemen | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article reviews literature on civil wars, especially recent wars incited by rebel groups espousing extreme ideologies. While the author does not define an instrumental measurement for civil wars, they rely primarily on datasets from the Uppsala Conflict Data Project (UCDP). | Walter, Barbara F. “The New New Civil Wars.” Annual review of political science 20, no. 1 (2017): 469–486. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-060415-093921 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on civil war. | Two articles are cited in support: Sambanis, Nicholas. "A review of recent advances and future directions in the quantitative literature on civil war." Defence and Peace Economics 13, no. 3 (2002): 215-243. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690210976 Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war." American political science review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75-90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 |
| Government is repressive, corrupt, and unconcerned with the rule of law | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights, (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect, Corruption/good governance, Strength rule of law/institutions | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Chad, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, Nigeria, Chad, Mali, CAR, and Yemen | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article reviews literature on civil wars, especially recent wars incited by rebel groups espousing extreme ideologies. While the author does not define an instrumental measurement for civil wars, they rely primarily on datasets from the Uppsala Conflict Data Project (UCDP). | Walter, Barbara F. “The New New Civil Wars.” Annual review of political science 20, no. 1 (2017): 469–486. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-060415-093921 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on civil war. | Five articles are cited in support of this effect: Hegre, Håvard. "Toward a democratic civil peace? Democracy, political change, and civil war, 1816–1992." American political science review 95, no. 1 (2001): 33-48. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055401000119 Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war." American political science review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75-90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 Collier, Paul, Anke Hoeffler, and Måns Söderbom. “On the Duration of Civil War.” Journal of peace research 41, no. 3 (2004): 253–273. https://doi.org/10.1177/2057891117728817 Buhaug, Halvard. “Relative Capability and Rebel Objective in Civil War.” Journal of peace research 43, no. 6 (2006): 691–708. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343306069255 Fearon, James D. Governance and civil war onset. World Bank, 2011. |
| Being a Muslim-majority country, with low GDP per capita, high unemployment, and repressive, corrupt governments, and unconcerned with the rule of law | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Existing macro-level studies help illuminate why so many civil wars have broken out in Muslim-majority countries. Chad, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, Nigeria, Chad, Mali, CAR, and Yemen are all countries were GDP per capita is low, unemployment is high, and governments are repressive, corrupt, and unconcerned with the rule of law. These are all factors that have been found to increase the risk of civil war (Hegre et al. 2001, Sambanis 2002, Fearon and Laitin 2003, Collier et al. 2004, Buhaug 2006, Fearon 2010, Walter 2015). | Unspecified | Between 1989 and 2003, approximately 40% of civil war episodes were fought in states in which Muslims made up a majority of citizens. Since 2003, that number has risen to approximately 65%. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article reviews literature on civil wars, especially recent wars incited by rebel groups espousing extreme ideologies. While the author does not define an instrumental measurement for civil wars, they rely primarily on datasets from the Uppsala Conflict Data Project (UCDP). | Walter, Barbara F. “The New New Civil Wars.” Annual review of political science 20, no. 1 (2017): 469–486. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-060415-093921 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on civil war. | Two articles are referenced in support of this factor: Gates, Scott, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard Strand, and Henrik Urdal. Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2014. Policy File. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343315595927 Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. “Transnational Dimensions of Civil War.” Journal of peace research 44, no. 3 (2007): 293–309. https://doi.org/10.1177/002234330707663 |
| Rebel groups having an extreme ideological positions | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Extreme ideological positions giving rebel groups a recruiting advantage with more devoted and committed supporters. The ideological extreme is where individuals are likely to be more willing to fight and die for a cause (see Gates & Nordas 2015). Moderate citizens, by contrast, are likely to be more difficult to recruit because they view the political stakes of victory or defeat as less valuable. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article reviews literature on civil wars, especially recent wars incited by rebel groups espousing extreme ideologies. While the author does not define an instrumental measurement for civil wars, they rely primarily on datasets from the Uppsala Conflict Data Project (UCDP). | Walter, Barbara F. “The New New Civil Wars.” Annual review of political science 20, no. 1 (2017): 469–486. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-060415-093921 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on civil war. | Six studies are cited in support of this risk factor: Iannaccone, Laurence R, and Eli Berman. “Religious Extremism: The Good, the Bad, and the Deadly.” Public choice 128, no. 1/2 (2006): 109–129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-006-9047-7 Berman, Eli. “Hamas, Taliban and the Jewish Underground: An Economist’s View of Radical Religious Militias.” NBER Working Paper Series (2003): 10004-. Berman, Eli. Radical, religious, and violent: The new economics of terrorism. MIT press, 2011. Berman E, Laitin DD. 2008. Religion, terrorism and public goods: testing the club model. J. Public Econ. 92:1942–67 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2008.03.007 Gates, Scott, and Ragnhild Nordås. "Recruitment, retention and religion in rebel groups." Peace, Conflict, and Development (2015). |
| Internet making it easier for rebel groups to form | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Internet | Rebel entrepreneurs formerly required a base of local support and financing to make mobilization possible. The Internet, however, is likely to change this. Jacobson 2010 describes the dramatic shifts in how rebel leaders can raise and transfer funds. Internet media campaigns make it easier for rebel entrepreneurs, especially those with limited local backing, to garner international attention and solicit the soldiers and financing necessary to start a war (Collier & Hoeffler 2004). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article reviews literature on civil wars, especially recent wars incited by rebel groups espousing extreme ideologies. While the author does not define an instrumental measurement for civil wars, they rely primarily on datasets from the Uppsala Conflict Data Project (UCDP). | Walter, Barbara F. “The New New Civil Wars.” Annual review of political science 20, no. 1 (2017): 469–486. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-060415-093921 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on civil war. | Three studies are cited in support of this risk factor, and two articles explain how the internet might help rebel groups finance and incite civil war: Cunningham, David E. "Veto players and civil war duration." American journal of political science 50, no. 4 (2006): 875-892. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00221.x Cunningham, David E. Barriers to peace in civil war. Cambridge University Press, 2014. Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher. “Actor Fragmentation and Civil War Bargaining: How Internal Divisions Generate Civil Conflict.” American journal of political science 57, no. 3 (2013): 659–672. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12003 Jacobson, Michael. “Terrorist Financing and the Internet.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 33, no. 4 (2010): 353–363. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576101003587184 Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4 (2004): 563–595. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064 |
| Low GDP per capita | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | had, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, Nigeria, Chad, Mali, CAR, and Yemen | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article reviews literature on civil wars, especially recent wars incited by rebel groups espousing extreme ideologies. While the author does not define an instrumental measurement for civil wars, they rely primarily on datasets from the Uppsala Conflict Data Project (UCDP). | Walter, Barbara F. “The New New Civil Wars.” Annual review of political science 20, no. 1 (2017): 469–486. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-060415-093921 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on civil war. | Two articles are cited in support Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war." American political science review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75-90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 Buhaug, Halvard. "Relative capability and rebel objective in civil war." Journal of Peace Research 43, no. 6 (2006): 691-708. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343306069255 |
| Two parties cannot credibly commit to share power with each other over time - especially when there are deep demographic imbalances | Static risk factor | (Political) Regime | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Power sharing arrangement | Bargaining theories contend that civil wars are much more likely to break out in countries were government leaders are unwilling or unable to negotiate with challengers. The decision by some Arab leaders not to negotiate was likely made in large part because these leaders faced severe commitment problems stemming from deep demographic imbalances in their countries. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | The governments of North Africa, West Africa, and the Middle East have been highly repressive and authoritarian since they were formed after World War II, and many of them have been ruled by the same leader for decades. In addition, there are other repressive, corrupt, and poverty-stricken states that are not in the Muslim world and did not experience rebellion. Walter argues that credible commitment problems account for the outbreak of these wars, in these countries, starting in 2003. Governments that were not able to grant concessions to protesters because of credible commitment problems were forced to fight. This explains why some protests became civil wars while others did not. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Chad, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, Nigeria, Chad, Mali, CAR, and Yemen | Intrastate armed conflict (generic), Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article reviews literature on civil wars, especially recent wars incited by rebel groups espousing extreme ideologies. While the author does not define an instrumental measurement for civil wars, they rely primarily on datasets from the Uppsala Conflict Data Project (UCDP). | Walter, Barbara F. “The New New Civil Wars.” Annual review of political science 20, no. 1 (2017): 469–486. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-060415-093921 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of the literature on civil war. | Two articles support this factor: Fearon, James D. "Rationalist explanations for war." International organization 49, no. 3 (1995): 379-414. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300033324 Powell, Robert. "War as a commitment problem." International organization 60, no. 1 (2006): 169-203. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818306060061 |
| Protests and armed uprisings in neighbouring countries | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events | The outbreak of the civil war in Syria was clearly influenced by events in other countries, as manifested in the role that protest elsewhere during the early part of the Arab Spring played in inspiring the initial protest against the government in Syria, as well as the subsequent influence of the Libyan armed uprising in inspiring the violent insurgency and the emergence of the Free Syrian Army (Lynch, 2014, 2016). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Syria | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | An alternative to traditional binary distinctions is to approach individual conflicts as broader clusters that may fall somewhere along a spectrum from clearly domestic civil war to clearly international conflict, and may include a complex set of transnational interactions between non-state and state actors in multiple countries. | Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. "Civil War from a Transnational Perspective." Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. 28 Jun. 2017 https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.312 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | The literature review focuses on empirical and large-N comparative quantitative literature in conflict research, with some bias towards early influential studies that shaped the research agenda. | One article is cited in support of this risk factor: Lynch, Marc. The Arab Uprisings Explained: New Contentious Politics in the Middle East. New York: Columbia University Press, 2014. |
| Losing loved ones or being tortured | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence, (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (In)directly experienced violence/safety, Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Uganda | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | One study is referenced in the introduction: Schauer, Elisabeth, and Thomas Elbert. "The Psychological Impact of Child Soldiering." 2010. |
| Needing access to education | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) access to education | Some youth joined the Maoists to access education, which they could not get in their home communities because of poverty or lack of parental support for schooling. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | For Maoist families, joining for education was especially salient for girls, many families reported that their parents sent sons to school but not daughters (Kohrt, Tol et al., 2010). | Children | Female | Nepal | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | Two studies and one book are referenced: Morley, Cara A., and Brandon A. Kohrt. "Impact of Peer Support on PTSD, Hope, and Functional Impairment: A Mixed-Methods Study of Child Soldiers in Nepal." Journal of Aggression, Maltreatment & Trauma 22 (2013): 714–734. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10926771.2013.813882 Kohrt, Brandon A., Wietse A. Tol, Judith Pettigrew, and Ram Karki. "Children and Revolution: The Mental Health and Psychosocial Wellbeing of Child Soldiers in Nepal’s Maoist Army." In The War Machine and Global Health, edited by Merrill Singer and G. Derrick Hodge, 89–116. Lanham, MD: Altamira Press, 2010. Adhikari, Anand. The Bullet and the Ballot Box: The Story of Nepal’s Maoist Revolution. New York: Verso Books, 2014. |
| Being older, as a potential child soldier (i.e., being closer to 18 years of age) (as a risk factor for voluntary recruitment) | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age | Unspecified | Current year substracted to the year a person is born to measure someone's age. | Higher age showed a positive correlation with voluntary recruitment at a level of borderline significance. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | Male and female | Nepal | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | Quantitative finding of a study - the 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal. Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 |
| A country having contraband goods, such as alluvial gemstones | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Activity, (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Contraband, Resource wealth/scarcity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | One study is cited in support: Fearon, James D. "Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer Than Others?" Journal of Peace Research 41, no. 3 (2004): 275–303. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343304043770 |
| Social inequities, including caste, gender, and rural–urban inequities | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Discrimination | Assertions to address social inequities create populist appeal of an armed groups movement. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Nepal | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | Two studies are referenced: Adhikari, Anand. The Bullet and the Ballot Box: The Story of Nepal’s Maoist Revolution. New York: Verso Books, 2014. Kohrt, Brandon A., Mark J. D. Jordans, Wietse A. Tol, Elizabeth Perera, Ram Karki, Sujata Koirala, and Nirbhaya Upadhaya. "Social Ecology of Child Soldiers: Child, Family, and Community Determinants of Mental Health, Psychosocial Well-Being, and Reintegration in Nepal." Transcultural Psychiatry 47 (2010): 727–753. https://doi.org/10.1177/1363461510381290 |
| It being an election year | Static risk factor | (Political) Moments | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Elections | Theisen (2012) argues that only when politicians see conflict is in their best interest does a conflict arise, which is more likely to be during an election year. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Kenya | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Theisen, Ole Magnus. "Climate Clashes? Weather Variability, Land Pressure, and Organized Violence in Kenya, 1989–2004." Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 1 (2012): 81–96. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311425842 |
| No other options for future economic or educational development | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation, (Psychosocial) Education | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment, (Lack of) access to education | In an environment in which children have no other options for future economic or educational development, children see soldiering as an important measure to gain access to resources and power. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Myanmar | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | One study is referenced in the introduction: Chen, Kai. Why Children Are Involved in Armed Conflicts? Comparative Study of Child Soldiering on the Myanmar–China Border: Evolutions, Challenges, and Countermeasures. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 2014. |
| Being morally outraged by a regime that is perceived to be unjust and hopeful of realizing change in the future | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice, (Psychosocial) Emotions, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling of (in)justice, Status/Power/Significance, Anger/resentment | Wood (2003) looks at the frames of legitimacy that motivated peasants to support the guerrillas in the Salvadoran civil war. Rather than hopes of future gains from a rebel victory or immediate concerns about possible repression, as rationalist theories would have it, these peasants were motivated by moral outrage over what they perceived as an unjust regime and the hopes of realizing their vision of full citizenship in the future. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Being morally outraged and hopeful of realizing change in the future | Does not specify | No differentiation | El Salvador | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This review article focuses on war, which the authors note is commonly defined as a violent confrontation between armed organizations, at least one of which represents a government. Various death thresholds have been used (for a critical discussion, the authors recommend Sambanis 2004). It is thus distinguished from genocide (in which the victims are not organized and armed), riots (in which none of the actors represents a government), and other forms of mass violence, all of which are outside the focus of this review. | Wimmer, Andreas. "War." Annual Review of Sociology 40 (2014): 173–197 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043416 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review focused on war, including civil wars. This review first summarizes the main strands of recent research in political science, were the most influential studies and well-structured debates have emerged. It then outlines four main contributions made by political, cultural, and comparative historical sociologists. | One book is cited as showing why peasants supported the guerrillas in the Salvadoran civil war. Wood, Elisabeth Jean. Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2003. |
| Being a girl (as a risk factor for voluntary recruitment) | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Female | Unspecified | Unspecified | Female former child soldiers in Nepal were more likely to have joined the military voluntarily than males: 85.6% of former female child soldiers reported that they joined voluntarily compared with 75.5% of former male child soldiers. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | Female | Nepal | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | Quantitative finding of a study - the 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal. Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 |
| Adolescent girls escaping abusive situations, including domestic violence, forced child marriage, and other gender-based violence | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children | Female | Nepal | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | One study is referenced: Shakya, Anita. "Experiences of Children in Armed Conflict in Nepal." Children and Youth Services Review 33 (2011): 557–563. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2010.08.018 |
| Attractive political ideology, such as eliminating caste discrimination, promoting women’s rights, and ending external exploitation of resources | Static risk factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State, (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect, Political grievances/satisfaction | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Nepal | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | One study is referenced: Shakya, Anita. "Experiences of Children in Armed Conflict in Nepal." Children and Youth Services Review 33 (2011): 557–563. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2010.08.018 |
| An appealing philosophy of the armed group | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | 32% of all respondents (boys and girls) gave this reason for joining a Maoist armed group | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | Male and female | Nepal | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | Quantitative finding of a study - the 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal. Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 |
| Experiencing rapid land reform | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Land access/reform | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Zimbabwe. | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | The review references one article which reports that in Zimbabwe a rapid land reform in 2002 was accompanied by substantial violence inflicted by state-supported groups on civilians. Shemyakina, Olga N. "Political Violence, Land Reform and Child Health: Results from Zimbabwe." Economics & Human Biology 42 (2021): 101010. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101010 |
| Escaping difficult life situations | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Major life event | Unspecified | Unspecified | 36% reported this reason for joining a Maoist armed group - these rates were relatively similar for boys and girls (34% boys, 38% girls). | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | Male and female | Nepal | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | Quantitative finding of a study - the 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal. Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 |
| Being a boy (as a risk factor for involuntary conscription) | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Male | Unspecified | Unspecified | Involuntary conscripts were twice as likely to be boys compared to girls in this sample. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | Male | Nepal | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | Quantitative finding of a study - the 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal. Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 |
| Being unmarried (risk factor for forced recruitment) | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Marital and Parental Status | In Nepal, one form of Maoist recruitment was a policy of “One House, One Person” were at least one person from each family was obligated to join the PLA (Shakya, 2011). Adolescents were often sent because they were unmarried (Kohrt, Tol, Pettigrew, & Karki, 2010). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | During the People’s War in Nepal, Families could often pay the Maoists to not take someone from their households if families had adequate economic means (Kohrt, Tol, Pettigrew, & Karki, 2010). | Children | No differentiation | Nepal | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | One study is referenced in support: Kohrt, Brandon A., Wietse A. Tol, Judith Pettigrew, and Ram Karki. "Children and Revolution: The Mental Health and Psychosocial Wellbeing of Child Soldiers in Nepal’s Maoist Army." In The War Machine and Global Health, edited by Merrill Singer and G. Derrick Hodge, 89–116. Lanham, MD: Altamira Press, 2010. |
| Families have financial means to pay recruiters so that they do not forcibly conscript individuals from their household | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | In Nepal, one form of Maoist recruitment was a policy of “One House, One Person” were at least one person from each family was obligated to join the PLA (Shakya, 2011). Families could often pay the Maoists to not take someone from their households if families had adequate economic means (Kohrt, Tol, Pettigrew, & Karki, 2010). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Nepal | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | One study is referenced in support: Kohrt, Brandon A., Wietse A. Tol, Judith Pettigrew, and Ram Karki. "Children and Revolution: The Mental Health and Psychosocial Wellbeing of Child Soldiers in Nepal’s Maoist Army." In The War Machine and Global Health, edited by Merrill Singer and G. Derrick Hodge, 89–116. Lanham, MD: Altamira Press, 2010. |
| Poor economic conditions | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Poor economic conditions were more frequently endorsed among boys (22%) than girls (10%) as a reason for joining a Maoist armed group | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | Male | Nepal | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | Quantitative finding of a study - the 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal. Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 |
| A country having natural resource wealth | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | One class of theories suggests that natural-resource wealth leads to violence by affecting the government—either by making it administratively weaker, and hence less able to prevent rebellions, or by increasing the value of capturing the state, and hence inducing new rebellions (de Soysa 2002; Fearon and Laitin 2003; Le Billon 2005) | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359\ | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | Three studies are cited in support: de Soysa, Indra. "Ecoviolence: Shrinking Pie or Honey Pot?" Global Environmental Politics 2, no. 4 (2002): 1–34. https://doi.org/10.1162/152638002320980605 Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 Le Billon, Philippe. Fuelling War: Natural Resources and Armed Conflicts. New York City: Routledge, 2005. |
| Personal connections to people who were members of an armed group | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Among girls, 51% reported joining voluntarily because of personal connections to people who were members of an armed group, compared with 22% of boys. | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children | Female | Nepal | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | Quantitative finding of a study - the 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal. Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 |
| Liking people in the armed group | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | There were significant gender differences in liking people who were Maoists, endorsed by 51% of girls compared to 22% of boys as a reason for joining a Maoist armed group | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | Female | Nepal | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | Quantitative finding of a study - the 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal. Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 |
| Inability to achieve other goals in life | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | Unspecified | Unspecified | 28% reported this reason for joining a Maoist armed group. Girls were more likely to join because of inability to achieve other goals in life compared to boys (34% vs. 24%); however, this difference was not statistically significant | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | Male and female | Nepal | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | Quantitative finding of a study - the 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal. Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 |
| Wanting to improve the country | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | Unspecified | Unspecified | 24% of both boy and girls endorsed wanting to improve the country as a reason for joining a Maoist armed group | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | Male and female | Nepal | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | Quantitative finding of a study - the 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal. Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 |
| Dissatisfaction among women with traditional norms and behavioral restrictions | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Discrimination | Female participation in combat can be perceived as empowering and an escape from patriarchal societal structures (West, 2004). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | Female | Sharma; Himalayas West; Mozambique | Intrastate armed conflict (governmental), Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | Two book chapters are cited in support: Sharma, Mandira, and Drona Prasain. "Gender Dimensions of the People’s War: Some Reflections on the Experiences of Rural Women." In Himalayan People’s War: Nepal’s Maoist Rebellion, edited by Michael Hutt, 152–165. Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2004. West, Harry. "Girls with Guns: Narrating the Experience of War of FRELIMO’s Female Detachment." In Children and Youth on the Front Line: Ethnography, Armed Conflict and Displacement, edited by Jo Boyden and Joanna De Berry, 105–129. New York: Berghahn Books, 2004. |
| Living in areas of the country less affected by war | Static protective factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events | People living in areas sheltered from violence are less likely to join armed groups for protection or to avenge the loss of loved ones. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Community | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The protective factor relates to the empirical findings of the article. Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 |
| Separatist conflicts happening across borders | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence, Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | (Absence of) conflict events, Ethnic diversity | Gleditsch (2008) argue, and support empirically, that separatist conflicts are more likely to lead to diffusion compared to wars fought over government power. This is because such conflicts typically involve regional ethnic groups that have ties to kin across borders, who are more likely to act on demonstration effects. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | Within this review article, civil war is defined as a situation where the government of a state and a non state opposition movement have a declared incompatibility and the parties use violence to achieve their goals results in at least 25 annual fatalities (Pettersson and Themner 2012). The terms “internal conflict,” “civil conflict,” and “civil war” are used interchangeably. | Forsberg, Erika. "Diffusion in the Study of Civil Wars: A Cautionary Tale." International Studies Review 16, no. 2 (2014): 188–198. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12130 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative literature review of large-N studies on what affects the probability of civil war diffusion. These studies use either data on countries or ethnic groups, generally with a global coverage, and with a timeseries starting in 1946 or later. | One article is referenced, showing empirical support for this effect when comparing the two types of conflict - the first source listed. However, when probing the same factor but studying pairs of states, where the first state has an ongoing internal conflict and the second is at risk for diffusion, empirical analysis fails to reproduce this finding. Buhaug, Halvard, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. "Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space." International Studies Quarterly 52, no. 2 (2008): 215–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2008.00499.x Forsberg, Erika. "Polarization and Ethnic Conflict in a Widened Strategic Setting." Journal of Peace Research 45, no. 2 (2008): 283–300. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343307087185 Forsberg, Erika. "Do Ethnic Dominoes Fall? Evaluating Domino Effects of Granting Territorial Concessions to Separatist Groups." International Studies Quarterly 57, no. 2 (2013): 329–40. https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12006 |
| Going to school and wanting to continue studies (family resilience) | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) affinity for school, In school/drop-out | From an interview: As she got older and LTTE recruiters repeatedly stopped her on the street and tried to persuade her to join, Chitra refused: “I always replied to them, ʽI want to continue my studies.ʼ” When I inquired in more detail why she declined, she told me: “We always had positive thoughts in our family, we thought that anything we can manage. And we were more focusing on our education, as long as this was possible we could manage. We had a very good resilience.” | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Resilience operated in localities in which the everyday of respondents and their families was severely disrupted by violence and displacement. Household socio-economic position (material and social resources) had a direct effect on their capacity to respond to these deprivations and limitations – in most families were resilience was at play one or both parents had a stable income and they could rely on support from relatives in moments of displacement or severe loss. For families in highly marginalized economic and social conditions it is certainly harder – tough, not impossible – to develop resilience (Estêvão et al. 2017). | Youth | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The empirical findings of the article: Young people’s role in families was to study and by struggling to do so, even during the worst conditions, respondents maintained “normality” and a future to strive for. As Chitra explains: “It has always been my goal to become a doctor. This is why, I wanted to continue my studies and also focusing on studying helped to manage despite all the difficulties.” Family resilience thus empowered respondents to withstand the adversity of war and to give meaning to their everyday lives despite all the difficulties. Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 |
| Determination and self confidence based on childhood socialization | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Low) self-esteem | Determination is at play if respondents understand their non-participation as an act of being true to their values and principles (Amarasuriya et al. 2020).... respondents indicate that childhood socialization played a role: determined respondents grew up in homes were opinions circulated freely and critical thinking was encouraged and lived. Moreover, some families seem to have valued prosocial orientations. Their upbringing may thus well have nurtured a certain non-conformism and inclusive worldviews which then shaped their response to the conflict and the LTTE. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Childhood socialization; moral obligations, even if strongly embedded in one’s sense of self, are effective only as long as the external pressure, caused by actors or situational constraints, are not too high. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The empirical findings of the article: Regardless of its origin, determination empowered respondents to abstain from violence despite social pressure. Nara illustrates this point. She studied in Jaffna in the early 1990s, and LTTE recruiters had repeatedly tried to woo her into the movement. She recalls that resisting the recruitment attempts required steadfastness and self-confidence but was possible. Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 |
| Militant groups living in close proximity with local populations | Static risk factor | (Situational) Location | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Accessible location | While the Sri Lankan government had firm control over the more urbanized and wealthier coastal belt, the LTTE’s pockets of authority and influence lay in the rural interior were, in some parts, the LTTE was de facto authority, living in close proximity with local populations (Klem 2011). In these villages, LTTE recruiters had unconstrained access to the young population. In fact, it was the rural area in the Batticaloa district that became the most important source of foot soldiers for the LTTE (Boyden 2007; Hellmann-Rajanayagam 2008; HRW 2004). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Community | Unspecified | Youth | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The empirical findings of the article are supported by four articles: Klem, Bart. "Islam, Politics and Violence in Eastern Sri Lanka." The Journal of Asian Studies 70, no. 3 (2011): 730–53. https://doi.org/10.1017/S002191181100088X Boyden, Jo. “Of Tigers, Ghosts and Snakes: Children’s Social Cognition in the Context of Conflict in Eastern Sri Lanka.” Queen Elizabeth House Working Papers. Oxford: Queen Elizabeth House, 2007. http://ideas.repec.org/p/qeh/qehwps/qehwps151.html Hellmann-Rajanayagam, Dagmar. "Female Warriors, Martyrs and Suicide Attackers: Women in the LTTE." International Review of Modern Sociology 34, no. 1 (2008): 1–25. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41421655 HRW (Human Rights Watch). "Living in Fear: Child Soldiers and the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka." Report, November 10, 2004. https://www.hrw.org/report/2004/11/10/living-fear/child-soldiers-and-tamil-tigers-sri-lanka. |
| Being young | Static protective factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age | LTTE’s age policy was implemented more strictly in the early conflict phases and in the Northern districts. In comparison, the rule that only unmarried youngsters were allowed to join was applied more rigorously (Boyden 2007). Consequently, respondents who were married at the time the LTTE established a presence in their locality did not even consider joining as an option. Furthermore, some parents married off their daughters in order to prevent recruitment (HRW 2004). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Being unmarried | Youth | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The empirical findings of the article are supported by two articles which finds the LTTE originally did nto allow children to join, but would recruit more as the conflcit went on. Boyden, Jo. “Of Tigers, Ghosts and Snakes: Children’s Social Cognition in the Context of Conflict in Eastern Sri Lanka.” Queen Elizabeth House Working Papers. Oxford: Queen Elizabeth House, 2007. http://ideas.repec.org/p/qeh/qehwps/qehwps151.html. HRW (Human Rights Watch). "Living in Fear: Child Soldiers and the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka." Report, November 10, 2004. https://www.hrw.org/report/2004/11/10/living-fear/child-soldiers-and-tamil-tigers-sri-lanka. |
| Being younger than the group's preferred recruitment profile | Static protective factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age | The LTTE initially had an age policy and turned away recruits who were considered to be too young. This policy was implemented more strictly in the initial phases of the conflict and in the Northern districts. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Youth | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The risk factor relates to the empirical findings of the article. Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 |
| Lack of opportunity to join due to not fitting the armed group's recruitment profile | Static protective factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age, Male, Female | Potential recruits are based on certain criteria, such as age, location, or marital status. Some respondents were thus encouraged and pressured to join, while others were not. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. | The article states that the LTTE did not target everyone for recruitment; rather, they selected potential recruits based on certain criteria, such as age, location, or marital status. Some respondents were thus encouraged and pressured to join, while others were not. Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 |
| Being young and lower class | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age, Socioeconomic status | The entrenched presence of the LTTE combined with high victimization rates in areas were people of mostly lower socio-economic standing lived, explains why mostly youngsters from those areas joined. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Youth | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The empirical findings of the article: In 1985, Laya moved from Batticaloa town were she grew up to Colombo to live with her older brother. As she had participated in a protest against the arrest of a friend who was allegedly an LTTE member, her parents feared she could either be drawn into militancy or be targeted by the Sri Lankan military; therefore, they wanted her to go to a “safe” place. Her experience mirrors those of several other respondents whose close relatives used their resources to prevent them from joining any armed group. As has been noted already, recruitment dynamics during the Sri Lankan civil war were marked by socio-economic inequalities, with youngsters from lower class backgrounds constituting the bulk of LTTE recruits. Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 |
| Belief in non-violence | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Approval/disapproval of violence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The empirical findings of the article lead to this conclusion. From an interview with a respondent who became increasingly critical of violence as a means to achieve political objectives: “I was generally supportive towards their goal and their work for Tamil people but I could not agree with the violence. I thought that the conflict should be dealt with in a healthier way.” Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 |
| Implementing conditional cash transfer programs | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature is inconclusive | Cash transfer | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Philippines | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support of cash transfer programs reducing conflict incidence. However, the authors do not find a broader effect in the decrease in conflict for municipalities that had both treatment and control villages, which may indicate spillover effects of conflict from treatment to control villages. Crost, Benjamin, Joseph H. Felter, and Patrick B. Johnston. "Conditional Cash Transfers, Civil Conflict and Insurgent Influence: Experimental Evidence from the Philippines." Journal of Development Economics 118 (2016): 171–182. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.08.005 |
| Having a perceived need to protect oneself and one's family when conflict escalates | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | People's perceived need to join increases once violence escalates in their area and they feel that fighting remains the only option to protect themselves and their families. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The empirical findings of the article lead to this conclusion. Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 |
| Precarious family situation and lack of money to flee from violence | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence, (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection, Poverty/Wealth | Several former LTTE members interviewed also mentioned precarious family situations and a lack of money to flee from violence as key factors that made them join the LTTE. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The empirical findings of the article lead to this conclusion. Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 |
| Personal victimization | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice, (Psychosocial) Emotions | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling of (in)justice, Feeling victimized/empowered | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Youth | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | Four articles are referenced: Boyden, Jo. “Of Tigers, Ghosts and Snakes: Children’s Social Cognition in the Context of Conflict in Eastern Sri Lanka.” Queen Elizabeth House Working Papers. Oxford: Queen Elizabeth House, 2007. http://ideas.repec.org/p/qeh/qehwps/qehwps151.html. Hellmann-Rajanayagam, Dagmar. The Tamil Tigers: Armed Struggle for Identity. Beiträge zur Südasienforschung, Bd. 157. Stuttgart: F. Steiner, 1994. HRW (Human Rights Watch). "Living in Fear: Child Soldiers and the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka." Report, November 10, 2004. https://www.hrw.org/report/2004/11/10/living-fear/child-soldiers-and-tamil-tigers-sri-lanka. Trawick, Margaret. "Reasons for Violence: A Preliminary Ethnographic Account of the LTTE." South Asia: Journal of South Asian Studies 20, no. sup001 (1997): 153–80. https://doi.org/10.1080/00856409708723308. |
| Fear of reprisal against family members by the government military amongst those living in government-controlled zones | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Another interviewee, Alaka, who lived in Batticaloa town points to another factor that discouraged participation from government-controlled zones: “I thought, if I joined, they [the Sri Lankan military] would harass my family, these houses were like this, all relatives lived together and it would have been such a harassment, we knew that.” This reasoning was common among respondents who lived in areas controlled by the Sri Lankan military. Even those who were thinking about joining, often as a result of government repression, did not do so, as they feared military reprisals against their families. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The protective factor relates to the empirical findings of the article. Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 |
| Being married | Static protective factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Marital and Parental Status | The LTTE rigorously applied a rule that only unmarried youngsters were allowed to join (Boyden 2007). Consequently, respondents who were married at the time the LTTE established a presence in their locality did not even consider joining as an option. Furthermore, some parents married off their daughters in order to prevent recruitment (HRW 2004) | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Being young | Youth | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The empirical findings of the article are supported by two articles: Boyden, Jo. “Of Tigers, Ghosts and Snakes: Children’s Social Cognition in the Context of Conflict in Eastern Sri Lanka.” Queen Elizabeth House Working Papers. Oxford: Queen Elizabeth House, 2007. http://ideas.repec.org/p/qeh/qehwps/qehwps151.html. HRW (Human Rights Watch). "Living in Fear: Child Soldiers and the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka." Report, November 10, 2004. https://www.hrw.org/report/2004/11/10/living-fear/child-soldiers-and-tamil-tigers-sri-lanka. |
| Parents provide a sense of normality and stability, upholding routines and habits, despite disturbances and insecurities | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Parenting skills | Respondents who joined the LTTE from areas severely affected by war often saw participation as the only means to escape a life full of risk, deprivation, and harm. At the same time, other families who also had to cope with severe deprivations developed the capacity to uphold everyday routines despite regular disturbances and risk. Parents were key in this regard, as they afforded protection and stability and conveyed a sense of normality and meaning to respondents through the way they navigated risks (often by improvisation) and upheld routines and habits, despite continual disturbances and insecurities. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The empirical findings of the article lead to this conclusion. Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 |
| Being from a resource rich family | Static protective factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Resource-rich families often have options to protect their children not accessible to less well-off parents. Through the activation of resources, well-off families could exchange economic and social capital for agency and remove their children from situations conducive for recruitment. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Youth | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The empirical findings of the article: In 1985, Laya moved from Batticaloa town were she grew up to Colombo to live with her older brother. As she had participated in a protest against the arrest of a friend who was allegedly an LTTE member, her parents feared she could either be drawn into militancy or be targeted by the Sri Lankan military; therefore, they wanted her to go to a “safe” place. Her experience mirrors those of several other respondents whose close relatives used their resources to prevent them from joining any armed group. As has been noted already, recruitment dynamics during the Sri Lankan civil war were marked by socio-economic inequalities, with youngsters from lower class backgrounds constituting the bulk of LTTE recruits. Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 |
| Local mineral resource production, which includes oil | Static risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resources extraction/production | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global sample in 1950–2006 | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This review article focuses on the onset of civil war and intrastate conflict. While the authors do not define civil war, they list the variables each analyzed study uses to define civil war incidence. Most studies cited use PRIO/Uppsala data and definitions of wars, including 1000 battle deaths. | Koubi, Vally, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt, and Thomas Bernauer. "Do Natural Resources Matter for Interstate and Intrastate Armed Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (2014): 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313493455 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review. 26 empirical studies are reviewed, along with an additional review mostly focused on theoretical arguments. | One article is cited in support: Sorens, Jason. "Mineral Production, Territory, and Ethnic Rebellion: The Role of Rebel Constituencies." Journal of Peace Research 48, no. 5 (2011): 571–585. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311411743 |
| Guarantees of public works employment at a minimum wage | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Salary increase/decrease | The authors conclude that targeted government antipoverty programs might double as counterinsurgency measures by offering civilians jobs and guaranteed income and increasing their incentives for cooperation with police. | Unspecified | the authors find that in the districts selected into the program there were more fatalities and incidents of insurgent violence after the program runs for 100 days, not less. In the first year of the program, there were increases in police attacks on insurgents and in Maoist attacks on project sites and civilians. However, the insurgents were the most affected group, implying a strengthened security response. | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | India | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Khanna, Gaurav, and Laura V. Zimmermann. "Guns and Butter? Fighting Violence with the Promise of Development." Journal of Development Economics 124 (2017): 120–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.09.006 |
| An exogenous decrease in coffee prices in coffee-producing municipalities | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Shock on prices | Dube & Vargas (2013) relate the increase in violence to a decreased opportunity cost of labor of potential fighters (an opportunity cost theory). | Unspecified | In Colombia, an exogenous decrease in coffee prices is found to increase various types of violence in coffee-producing municipalities. The effects are sizable. For example, a 68% decrease in coffee prices between 1997 and 2003 led to an 18% rise in guerrilla attacks in coffee-producing municipalities relative to noncoffee-producing areas. | Onset | Country | Dube & Vargas (2013) find that the effect of price shocks on rebel and paramilitary violence differs by sector and labor intensity of production. They also observe that in the coffee-producing municipalities, number of hours worked and wages both declined. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Colombia | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Dube, Oeindrila, and Juan Vargas. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia." The Review of Economic Studies 80, no. 4 (2013): 1384–1421. http://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdt009 |
| An increase in oil prices in oil-producing regions. | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Shock on prices | The authors link an increase in oil prices to an increased value of resources to fight over (a predation theory of conflict). | Unspecified | In Colombia, a 137% increase in oil prices over 1998 to 2005 led paramilitary attacks to increase by an additional 14% in the average oil producing municipality | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Colombia | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Dube, Oeindrila, and Juan Vargas. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia." The Review of Economic Studies 80, no. 4 (2013): 1384–1421. http://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdt009 |
| An increase in natural resource price shocks | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Shock on prices | An increased value of the resource or revenue to be extracted from a community increases conflict via an increased competition for the resource. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Colombia | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Dube, Oeindrila, and Juan Vargas. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia." The Review of Economic Studies 80, no. 4 (2013): 1384–1421. http://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdt009 |
| An exogenous increase in prices of labor-intensive commodities | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Shock on prices | Rising prices increases the opportunity cost of any conflict, therefore reducing the likelihood of conflict. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Colombia | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Dube, Oeindrila, and Juan Vargas. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia." The Review of Economic Studies 80, no. 4 (2013): 1384–1421. http://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdt009 |
| An exogenous increase in coca prices | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Shock on prices | Price increases motivated local producers to expand their production capacities of coca and subsequently led to higher predation among combatants. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Colombia | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This review article focuses on armed conflict as defined by Gleditsch et al. (2002), "a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year." | Shemyakina, Olga. "War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity." Annual Review of Resource Economics 14, no. 1 (2022): 313-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | This article surveys the recent research on war, armed conflict, and food security. | One study is referenced in support: Angrist, Joshua D., and Adriana D. Kugler. "Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income, and Civil Conflict in Colombia." The Review of Economics and Statistics 90, no. 2 (2008): 191–215. http://doi.org/10.1162/rest.90.2.191 |
| Parents use membership of one child in armed group as leverage to prevent another child from joining | Static protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Contrary to the common misperception that armed groups enlist anyone they can put their hands on, rebels can be quite selective in whom they admit as a member (Viterna 2013). This means that some social groups are more likely to be targeted for recruitment than others and that some individuals have more scope to resist. The LTTE’s one-child-per-family policy empowered some youngsters to push back recruitment attempts. Also parents who already had children in the LTTE would sometimes use the membership of one child as a leverage to prevent another child from joining. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | Empirical findings of the article based on an interview with Diya who grew up in Killinochchi, the town were the LTTE headquarters was located and the LTTE was the de facto ruling authority. Despite the pressure, Diya managed to evade recruitment. However, her unwillingness to join was only part of the reason she escaped. Recruiters were very adept at getting unwilling youngsters to change their minds (Meier 2019). Diya could refuse as one of her siblings was an LTTE member: “They did not take me as my brother was already in LTTE.” Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 |
| Socialization dynamics within an armed group's affiliated networks and social ties between militants and youngsters | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Youth | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The article references three articles: Alison, Miranda. 2003. “Cogs in the Wheel? Women in the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.” Civil Wars 6(4):37–54. https://doi.org/10.1080/13698240308402554 Meier, Larissa Daria. "Spatiotemporal Variation in Armed Group Recruitment among Former Members of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam." Sociological Forum 37, no. 2 (2022): 510–32. https://doi.org/10.1111/socf.12805 Trawick, Margaret. "Reasons for Violence: A Preliminary Ethnographic Account of the LTTE." South Asia: Journal of South Asian Studies 20, no. sup001 (1997): 153–80. https://doi.org/10.1080/00856409708723308 |
| Not wanting to leave parents | Static protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The empirical findings of the article lead to this conclusion. Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 |
| Parents actively prevent the recruitment of their children | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The empirical findings of the article lead to this conclusion. Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 |
| Being middle-class and well-educated | Dynamic protective factor | Demographic, (Psychosocial) Education | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Socioeconomic status, Level of education | Subjective understanding as middle-class, well-educated, and therefore more “rational” and “critical” had a distancing and separating effect towards LTTE recruits whom they considered as coming from disadvantaged socio-economic and family backgrounds and therefore lacking these qualities. This perceived social distance reflected and likely reinforced actual class differences in terms of recruitment that were less relevant in the initial phase of the war but manifested at later stages were LTTE fighters were predominantly recruited from the poor farming and fishing villages in the North-East (Hellmann-Rajanayagam 2008). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Youth | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This study focuses on why or why not people join a non-state armed group, specifically the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. While the authors do not define armed groups or armed violence generally, they refer to LTTE recruitment during the Sri Lankan civil war. | Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | This article investigates acts of non-participation in armed groups during civil wars. It draws from conflict history interviews with Tamil civilians who lived in areas affected by the separatist armed struggle led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) but who never joined any armed group; It singles out the most relevant conditions and factors that influenced their decisions not to participate in organized militancy. The article draws from 20 life history interviews with non-participants and 30 life history interviews with former LTTE members. | The empirical findings of the article lead to this conclusion. A quote from one of the interviews: "I was like most of my friends from middle class families, we were able to see the good and the bad things of the struggle. Although we were affected, we were more rational. This was because we were fortunate. We were more intellectually oriented than on fighting. And also, the movements, at that time, did not follow our way of thinking. They said: “I say, you do.” That did not fit with us." Meier, Larissa. "Understanding Non-Participation in Armed Groups during the Sri Lankan Civil War." Social Problems (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spad058 |
| A country having natural resource wealth | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | A class of theories holds that natural resources lead to conflict by affecting insurgents, not governments: rebels from an ethnically marginalized region could be motivated by the prospect of establishing an independent state, so that locally generated resource revenues would not have to be shared with the rest of the country; likewise,rebels could finance the costs of staging a rebellion either by looting the resource itself (ifit is a “lootable” resource like alluvial gemstones or oil) or by extorting money from companies and workers who operate in their territory (Collier, Hoeffler, andRohner 2009; Dal Bó and Dal Bó 2011; Ross 2012). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial), Ethnic conflict | This review article examines how resource wealth affects the incidence of civil war. While the authors do not define civil war explicitly, they reference several articles which have standardized definitions within the field, including Fearon & Laitin (2003) and Fearon (2004) who define civil war as a conflict which: (1) Involved fighting between agents of (or claimants to) a state and organized, non-state groups who sought either to take control of a government, take power in a region, or use violence to change government policies. (2) Killed at least 1,000 people over its course, with a yearly average of at least 100. (3) Kileld 100 on both sides (including civilians attacked by rebels). | Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18, no. 1 (2015): 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 | Academic | 2015 | Reference to one or several articles | Overall literature review of resources and civil war, comprised of both quantitative analyses and case studies. | Three studies cited in support: Collier, Paul, Anke Hoeffler, and Dominic Rohner. "Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 61 (2009): 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpn029 Dal Bó, Ernesto, and Pedro Dal Bó. "Workers, Warriors, and Criminals: Social Conflict in General Equilibrium." Journal of the European Economic Association 9, no. 4 (2011): 646–77. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01025.x Ross, Michael L. The Oil Curse: How Petroleum Wealth Shapes the Development of Nations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2012. |
| Fear of death, on a societal level, allowing for suicide terrorism to be framed as heroic | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Ramasubramanian suggests that the fear of death, on a societal level, can motivate people to heroism. With cultural beliefs that adhere to the martyrdom-equals-heroism concept, it is easier to understand how individuals would be influenced to engage in suicide-terror attacks. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial), Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited in support: Ramasubramanian, R. "Suicide Terrorism in Sri Lanka." IPCS Research Papers 5 (2004). https://www.leksikon.org/images/Suicide_Terrorism_in_Sri_Lanka.pdf |
| Unsettled conflict environments | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events | Unsettled conflict environments are one of the chief enabling conditions that are most liable to ignite people to breakout into violence. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: START. "Global Terrorism Database." Database. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, University of Maryland, College Park, 2020. |
| Conflicts involving foreign fighters yielding domestic terrorism | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events | It may be the case that overseas conflicts can catalyze involvement in terrorist violence in various ways, such as by rousing strong emotions, providing extremist “role models” whose ideas or actions inspire emulation, or offering practical examples of the claims that extremist ideologies make about the necessity for armed resistance. Moreover, overseas conflicts involving groups that a radicalized individual identifies with can be seen as a geopolitical source of grievance. Politicians and policymakers have evinced concern that the paramilitary skills and experience gained by foreign fighters could also make them markedly successful in organizing or carrying out terrorist attacks upon return home. | Unspecified | Shuurman and Carthy found no association between conflicts involving foreign fighters and domestic terrorism. | Spillover | Transnational | The likelihood that conflicts involving foreign fighters will yield domestic terrorism is subject to various nuances, such as whether the fighting is ongoing and which side achieves victory. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not support this risk factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 Three other studies corroborate this finding: Hegghammer T. Should I stay or should I go? Explaining the variation in Western jihadists’ choice between domestic and foreign fighting. Am Polit Sci Rev. 2013; 107: 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055412000615 Malet D, Hayes R. Foreign fighter returnees: an indefinite threat? Terror Political Violence. 2020; 32: 1617–1635. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2018.1497987 Wright CJ. Sometimes they come back: responding to American foreign fighter returnees and other elusive threats. Behav Sci Terror Political Aggress. 2020; 12: 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2018.1464493 |
| Having an ongoing civil war | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events | Terrorist violence appears to be a tactic used by the parties to an intra-state armed conflict to try to induce negotiations with the government and also to try to spoil any peace between moderate rebels and the government that emerges out of those negotiations. | Unspecified | Data on terrorist events suggests that a large proportion of terrorist violence occurs in the context of larger civil wars. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The authors define terrorism as "the premeditated use or threat to use violence by individuals or subnational groups against noncombatants in order to obtain a political or social objective through the intimidation of a large audience beyond that of the immediate victims” (Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev 2011, 321). The authors note that their definition of terrorism does not include acts of terrorism committed by the government, focuses exclusively upon politically motivated acts, and involves attacks against civilians, officials, and/or noncombatants. | Braithwaite, Alex, and Tiffany S Chu. “Civil Conflicts Abroad, Foreign Fighters, and Terrorism at Home.” The Journal of conflict resolution 62, no. 8 (2018): 1636–1660. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717707304 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This quantitative study builds a dataset to examine the relationship between the number of terrorist attacks taking place every year in most countries, and several explanatory factors. The number of terrorist attacks per country/year include both domestic and transnational terrorist activities, and are drawn from Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev’s (2011) version of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). | Two articles provide support for this risk factor: Stanton, Jessica A. “Terrorism in the Context of Civil War.” The Journal of politics 75, no. 4 (2013): 1009–1022. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000984 Fortna, Virginia Page. “Do Terrorists Win? Rebels’ Use of Terrorism and Civil War Outcomes.” International organization 69, no. 3 (2015): 519–556. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818315000089 |
| Foreign fighters participating in ongoing civil conflicts abroad | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events, (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Conflicts fought all around the world rely upon a stock of human capital and materiel. While the bulk of rebel fighters in any given conflict are drawn from the local population, foreign fighters —those fighting outside of their home country—can serve as an invaluable resource for local struggles. In the first instance, it stands to reason that human capital in the form of foreign fighters in ongoing conflicts abroad generates trained and capable resources for campaigns of terrorist attacks at home. | The number of conflicts (as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program) that involved foreign fighters participation and were ongoing that year. The data on foreign fighters are drawn from the research of Malet (2013), who collected data on the presence or absence of foreign fighters across 330 civil wars (as defined by the Correlates of War [COW] project) between 1816 and 2007. The study then recodes Malet's data by identifying the civil wars in COW with foreign fighters and applying it to Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s data set of civil conflicts. | Higher counts of terrorism are observed in years with greater numbers of ongoing violent conflicts abroad that involve participation of foreign fighters. | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The authors define terrorism as "the premeditated use or threat to use violence by individuals or subnational groups against noncombatants in order to obtain a political or social objective through the intimidation of a large audience beyond that of the immediate victims” (Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev 2011, 321). The authors note that their definition of terrorism does not include acts of terrorism committed by the government, focuses exclusively upon politically motivated acts, and involves attacks against civilians, officials, and/or noncombatants. | Braithwaite, Alex, and Tiffany S Chu. “Civil Conflicts Abroad, Foreign Fighters, and Terrorism at Home.” The Journal of conflict resolution 62, no. 8 (2018): 1636–1660. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717707304 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This quantitative study builds a dataset to examine the relationship between the number of terrorist attacks taking place every year in most countries, and several explanatory factors. The number of terrorist attacks per country/year include both domestic and transnational terrorist activities, and are drawn from Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev’s (2011) version of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). | The results of the authors' statistical analysis provide support for this risk factor. Braithwaite, Alex, and Tiffany S Chu. “Civil Conflicts Abroad, Foreign Fighters, and Terrorism at Home.” The Journal of conflict resolution 62, no. 8 (2018): 1636–1660. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717707304 |
| Adherence to the law | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Dis)respect for the law | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Youth, Children | No differentiation | Germany | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article analyzes how radicalization may lead to violent behavioral outcomes, which the authors define as "violent extremist behavior against persons and property" | Lösel, Friedrich, Sonja King, Doris Bender, and Irina Jugl. "Protective Factors Against Extremism and Violent Radicalization: A Systematic Review of Research." International Journal of Developmental Science 12, no. 1-2 (2018): 89-102. https://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-170241 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | 17 reports containing 21 analyses that specifically addressed potential protective effects and provided quantitative data. 11 analyses addressed protective factors against religious/ethnic extremism. Five analyses investigated protective factors against far-right extremism, two far-left, one nationalist/separatist, and two mixed orientation. | One study was analyzed and the author's reported the effect as a main finding: A person who adheres to the law is less prone to right-wing, left-wing, and religious / ethnic extremism. Baier, Dirk, Patrik Manzoni, and Marie Christine Bergmann. "Einflussfaktoren des politischen Extremismus im Jugendalter: Rechtsextremismus, Linksextremismus und islamischer Extremismus im Vergleich." Monatsschrift für Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform 99 (2016): 171–198. http://doi.org/10.1515/mks-2016-990529 |
| Being law-abiding, or having a belief in a duty to follow and abide by the law | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Dis)respect for the law | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a small effect size for this protective factor |
| Reporting family disintegration | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | (Dys)functional family dynamics | Unspecified | Unspecified | This study did not show a significant effect between reporting family disintegration and violent extremist behavior. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Adults | No differentiation | Iraq | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article is referenced, which did not find a significant effect: Dhumad, Saleh, Philip J. Candilis, Sean D. Cleary, Allen R. Dyer, and Najat Khalifa. "Risk Factors for Terrorism: A Comparison of Family, Childhood, and Personality Risk Factors Among Iraqi Terrorists, Murderers, and Controls." Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression 12, no. 1 (2020): 72–88. https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2019.1591481 |
| Poor family relationships | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Dys)functional family dynamics | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | One article is referenced in support: Bazex, Hélène, Michel Bénézech, and Jean-Yves Mensat. “Le miroir de la haine ». La prise en charge pénitentiaire de la radicalisation : analyse clinique et criminologique de 112 personnes placées sous main de justice.” Annales médico psychologiques 175, no. 3 (2017): 276–282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2017.01.009 |
| Problematic family situations characterised as turbulent and unstable | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Dys)functional family dynamics | Unspecified | Unspecified | Half of Sieckelinck et al’s (2019) interview sample of former extremists (n=21) depicted problematic family situations characterised as turbulent and instable. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | One article is referenced in support: Sieckelinck, Stijn, Elga Sikkens, Marion van San, Sita Kotnis, and Micha De Winter. “Transitional Journeys Into and Out of Extremism. A Biographical Approach.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 42, no. 7 (2019): 662–682. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2017.1407075 |
| Troubled social relationships (parental relationships, respect from friends/family) | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Dys)functional family dynamics | Unspecified | Unspecified | Rink and Sharma (2016) found troubled social relationships (parental relationships, respect from friends/family) significantly correlated with radicalization in their survey of Kenyan radical extremists. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Kenya | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | One article is referenced in support: Rink, Anselm, and Kunaal Sharma. “The Determinants of Religious Radicalization: Evidence from Kenya.” The Journal of conflict resolution 62, no. 6 (2018): 1229–1261. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002716678986 |
| Having divorced parents | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | (Dys)functional family dynamics | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Bad relationships which include poor intimate partner relationships, problematic family situations characterized as turbulent and unstable, and social isolation. | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Dys)functional family dynamics, (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | Various case studies utilising primary materials demonstrate the impact of bad relationships upon the radicalisation process. The authors cite (Jasko et al., 2017) as one overall example: Jasko, Katarzyna, Gary LaFree, and Arie Kruglanski. “Quest for Significance and Violent Extremism: The Case of Domestic Radicalization.” Political psychology 38, no. 5 (2017): 815–831. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12376 |
| Poor intimate partner relationships which have been linked with feelings of emptiness and isolation, search for security, commitment problems, and the development of new (extreme) relationships to replace the void | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Dys)functional family dynamics, (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | France | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | Two articles are referenced in support: Bazex, Hélène, Michel Bénézech, and Jean-Yves Mensat. “Le miroir de la haine ». La prise en charge pénitentiaire de la radicalisation : analyse clinique et criminologique de 112 personnes placées sous main de justice.” Annales médico psychologiques 175, no. 3 (2017): 276–282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2017.01.009 Aly, Anne, and Jason-Leigh Striegher. “Examining the Role of Religion in Radicalization to Violent Islamist Extremism.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 35, no. 12 (2012): 849–862. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2012.720243 |
| Experienced bullying | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Experiencing) bullying | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a very small effect size for this risk factor |
| Having a family member be killed | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Unspecified | Unspecified | This study did not show a significant effect between having a family member be killed and violent extremist behavior. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Adults | No differentiation | Iraq | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article is referenced, which did not find a significant effect: Dhumad, Saleh, Philip J. Candilis, Sean D. Cleary, Allen R. Dyer, and Najat Khalifa. "Risk Factors for Terrorism: A Comparison of Family, Childhood, and Personality Risk Factors Among Iraqi Terrorists, Murderers, and Controls." Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression 12, no. 1 (2020): 72–88. https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2019.1591481 |
| Physical abuse | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Unspecified | Unspecified | Studies show rates between 17.6% and 71.4% who experienced physical abuse | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | Five articles are cited which capture rates of various of physical abuse; (Dhumad et al., 2020; Oppetit et al., 2019; Simi et al., 2016; Bazex et al.,2017; Baron, 1997; Jasko et al., 2017) |
| Sexual abuse | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Unspecified | Unspecified | Studies show rates between 23% and 28.5% sexual abuse | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | Three articles are cited in support: Oppetit, Alice, Nicolas Campelo, Laura Bouzar, Hugues Pellerin, Serge Hefez, Guillaume Bronsard, Dounia Bouzar, and David Cohen. “Do Radicalized Minors Have Different Social and Psychological Profiles From Radicalized Adults?” Frontiers in psychiatry 10 (2019): 644–644. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00644 Simi, Pete, Karyn Sporer, and Bryan F Bubolz. “Narratives of Childhood Adversity and Adolescent Misconduct as Precursors to Violent Extremism: A Life-Course Criminological Approach.” The journal of research in crime and delinquency 53, no. 4 (2016): 536–563. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427815627312 Baron, Stephen W. “Canadian Male Street Skinheads: Street Gang or Street Terrorists?” The Canadian review of sociology 34, no. 2 (1997): 125–154. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-618X.1997.tb00204.x |
| Experienced domestic or neighbourhood violence | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Unspecified | Unspecified | Studies show rates between 18.6% and 64% of domestic or neighbourhood violence | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | Four articles are cited in support: Oppetit, Alice, Nicolas Campelo, Laura Bouzar, Hugues Pellerin, Serge Hefez, Guillaume Bronsard, Dounia Bouzar, and David Cohen. “Do Radicalized Minors Have Different Social and Psychological Profiles From Radicalized Adults?” Frontiers in psychiatry 10 (2019): 644–644. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00644 Simi, Pete, Karyn Sporer, and Bryan F Bubolz. “Narratives of Childhood Adversity and Adolescent Misconduct as Precursors to Violent Extremism: A Life-Course Criminological Approach.” The journal of research in crime and delinquency 53, no. 4 (2016): 536–563. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427815627312 Dhumad, Saleh, Philip J Candilis, Sean D Cleary, Allen R Dyer, and Najat Khalifa. “Risk Factors for Terrorism: A Comparison of Family, Childhood, and Personality Risk Factors among Iraqi Terrorists, Murderers, and Controls.” Behavioral sciences of terrorism and political aggression 12, no. 1 (2020): 72–88. https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2019.1591481 Bazex, Hélène, Michel Bénézech, and Jean-Yves Mensat. “Le miroir de la haine ». La prise en charge pénitentiaire de la radicalisation : analyse clinique et criminologique de 112 personnes placées sous main de justice.” Annales médico psychologiques 175, no. 3 (2017): 276–282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2017.01.009 |
| Propensity for self-preservation in the population instilled by a reverse demonstration effect (i.e. chaos caused by civil war in one country) | Static protective factor | (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Reverse demonstration effect instills a propensity for self-preservation into the Jordanian population, which leads people to take part in protecting the country from jihadist violence. Chaos caused by civil war in one country might sometimes decrease the risk of conflict spreading to its neighbors, as potential rebels and populations in neighboring states—seeing the horrors caused by the hostilities—decide they do not want to suffer the same fate. As a result, potential insurgents refrain from rebelling, while members of the population who might previously have been sympathetic to rebel causes stop supporting and might even start working against elements advocating or seeking to initiate armed rebellion). | Attitudes of the Jordanian population towards the Islamic State / Jordanian civilians' cooperation with Jordanian authorities to prevent jihadi terrorist plots | In 2015, roughly 2% of respondents in a poll held a somewhat or very positive view of the Islamic State (Lia, 2016). If representative of the Jordanian population, this share would amount to approximately 200,000 individuals. Such data indicate that although a reverse demonstration effect might be working against jihadism in Jordan, it is hardly a sufficient explanation for the limited number of attacks. There are more than enough Jordanians who are positively inclined towards jihadism and thus susceptible to recruitment by transnational terrorist networks. Moreover, the drop in support for jihadist groups following major attacks does not seem to have had immediate effects on attack activity. | Spillover | Country | Usually in tandem with public revulsion against terrorist acts: Opinion polls reinforce the hypothesis that a reverse demonstration effect has been at play (usually in tandem with public revulsion against terrorist acts). Support for jihadist groups decreased significantly on two occasions when brutal attacks made it clear to Jordanians that the jihadists posed a threat to their country. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Jordan | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The article defines transnational jihadism as the following "Sunni Islamist militant movements leading a global armed struggle (jihad) with the goals of toppling regimes in the Muslim world that they regard as un-Islamic; and of deterring Western interference in Muslim affairs. The ultimate aim of this jihadism is the re-establishment of the Caliphate and the application of Islamic law" (Hegghammer, 2010 p.1-15). In the dataset created in this study, the authors consider acts of terrorism mostly as shootings and bombings (or plans for them) motivated by political and religious extremism in a country during peacetime, which falls well within what is considered terrorism by most scholars, regardless of how they define other aspects of it. | Nesser, Petter, and Henrik Gråtrud. “When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan.” Perspectives on politics 19, no. 2 (2021): 492–506. https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759271900389X | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A wide range of primary sources in Arabic and English gathered through online platforms and fieldwork, which allowed the authors to compile a novel dataset of jihadist attack activity in the kingdom of Jordan (from 1995 to 2018). While existing research on terrorism in Jordan and other non-Western countries tends only to examine launched attacks, the authors also included foiled terrorist plots to give a more accurate and comprehensive picture of the jihadist threat. | A primary finding of the study: When assessing the possible role of the public in stopping jihadist attacks, it is found that although overall support for jihadist groups has declined in Jordan, this has not prevented the jihadi movement itself from growing. Nesser, Petter, and Henrik Gråtrud. “When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan.” Perspectives on politics 19, no. 2 (2021): 492–506. https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759271900389X |
| Physically abused by parents | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience, (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (In)directly experienced violence/safety, (Dys)functional family dynamics, Parenting skills | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a very small effect size for this risk factor |
| Being a victim of violence perpetrated by strangers, bullies, or parents | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience, (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (In)directly experienced violence/safety, (Experiencing) bullying, (Dys)functional family dynamics | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a small effect size for this risk factor |
| A desire for revenge due to personal loss | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence, (Psychosocial) Emotions | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (In)directly experienced violence/safety, Forgiveness/revenge | Unspecified | Unspecified | Although the heads of terrorist cells try to ensure that terrorists do not engage in suicide terrorism for personal revenge, almost all kamikazes had: lost a close family connection; had a family connection that had experienced bodily injuries; or had themselves experienced bodily injuries. Fields et al. (2002) found that 5 out of 9 terrorists examined had been injured; 8 had been imprisoned and tortured; and 5 had had family members beaten and humiliated by soldiers. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The study defines suicide terrorism as “the targeted use of self-destructive men against a population of non-combatants (typically civilians), in order to effect political change” (Atran, 2003). The study uses the phrase "suicide terrorist” to refer to kamikased or human bombs (suicide terrorists); a voluntarist who gives his or her life to achieve a political objective (Barzin, 2010). Suicide terrorism is the only form of combat in which the attacker contemplates extreme actions in which he does not expect to survive the mission (Pape, 2005), and in which the chances of returning surviving are “close to zero” (Pedahzur, 2006). | Fekih-Romdhane, Feten, Leila Chennoufi, and Mejda Cheour. “Les terroristes suicidaires : qui sont-ils ?” Annales médico psychologiques 174, no. 4 (2016): 274–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2015.10.026 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | This study is a literature review surveying 41 academic and grey literature sources which analyse various aspects of suicide terrorism. | Three studies provide support for this risk factor: Stout, Chris E. The psychology of terrorism: Clinical aspects and responses, Vol. II. Praeger Publishers/Greenwood Publishing Group, 2002. Sageman, Marc. Le Vrai Visage des Terroristes: Psychologie et sociologie des acteurs du djihad. DENOEL. 2005 ISBN 10: 2207256839 Speckhard, Anne, and Khapta Akhmedova. “The New Chechen Jihad: Militant Wahhabism as a Radical Movement and a Source of Suicide Terrorism in Post-War Chechen Society.” Democracy and security 2, no. 1 (2006): 103–155. https://doi.org/10.1080/17419160600625116 |
| Experiencing violent acts perpetrated by parents | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience, (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | (In)directly experienced violence/safety, Parenting skills | Unspecified | Unspecified | All three studies referenced and focused on violent behavior found a significant effect between experiencing violence by parents and violent extremist behavior - but one found violence by parents to be positively associated with extremist behavior while two found it to be negatively associated (the opposite direction). Therefore, the results of this metaanalysis are inconclusive. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Baier: Germany Clemmow: Lone‐actor terrorists who planned their attacks in the US, UK, Europe, or Australia. Dhumad: Iraq | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | Three articles are referenced: Baier, Dirk, Patrik Manzoni, and Marie Christine Bergmann. "Einflussfaktoren des politischen Extremismus im Jugendalter—Rechtsextremismus, Linksextremismus und islamischer Extremismus im Vergleich." Monatsschrift für Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform 99, no. 3 (2016): 171–198. http://doi.org/10.1515/mks-2016-990529 Clemmow, Caitlin, Sandy Schumann, Nadine L. Salman, and Paul Gill. "The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism." Journal of Forensic Sciences 65, no. 3 (2020): 865–881. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.14282 Dhumad, Saleh, Philip J. Candilis, Sean D. Cleary, Allen R. Dyer, and Najat Khalifa. "Risk Factors for Terrorism: A Comparison of Family, Childhood, and Personality Risk Factors Among Iraqi Terrorists, Murderers, and Controls." Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression 12, no. 1 (2020): 72–88. https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2019.1591481 |
| Good school achievement | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) academic progress | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Good school achievement and bonding to school reduced far-right and far-left extremist attitudes and behavior (Baier et al., 2016; Boehnke, Hagan, & Merkens, 1998). | Youth, Children, Adults | No differentiation | Germany | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article analyzes how radicalization may lead to violent behavioral outcomes, which the authors define as "violent extremist behavior against persons and property" | Lösel, Friedrich, Sonja King, Doris Bender, and Irina Jugl. "Protective Factors Against Extremism and Violent Radicalization: A Systematic Review of Research." International Journal of Developmental Science 12, no. 1-2 (2018): 89-102. https://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-170241 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | 17 reports containing 21 analyses that specifically addressed potential protective effects and provided quantitative data. 11 analyses addressed protective factors against religious/ethnic extremism. Five analyses investigated protective factors against far-right extremism, two far-left, one nationalist/separatist, and two mixed orientation. | One study was analyzed and the author's reported the effect as a main finding: People who are good at school are less prone to right-wing and left-wing extremism. Baier, Dirk, Patrik Manzoni, and Marie Christine Bergmann. "Einflussfaktoren des politischen Extremismus im Jugendalter: Rechtsextremismus, Linksextremismus und islamischer Extremismus im Vergleich." Monatsschrift für Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform 99 (2016): 171–198. http://doi.org/10.1515/mks-2016-990529 |
| Homelessness | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) adequate housing | Unspecified | Unspecified | Weenink (2019) found 9% of those in a foreign fighter sample had been homeless for a period of time. This is approximately eight to ten times more likely than a matched general population sample. Similarly, Baron (1997) classified each of the 14 Canadian skinhead in their study as chronically or long-term homeless. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | Two articles are referenced in support: Weenink, Anton W. “Adversity, Criminality, and Mental Health Problems in Jihadis in Dutch Police Files.” Perspectives on terrorism (Lowell) 13, no. 5 (2019): 130–142. Baron, Stephen W. “Canadian Male Street Skinheads: Street Gang or Street Terrorists?” The Canadian review of sociology 34, no. 2 (1997): 125–154. |
| Being homeless before radicalization | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) adequate housing | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Being homeless during radicalization | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) adequate housing | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Owning a house | Dynamic protective factor | Demographic, (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) adequate housing, Socioeconomic status | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article, systematically reviewing five articles, is referenced in support: Lösel, Friedrich, Sonja King, Doris Bender, and Irina Jugl. "Protective Factors Against Extremism and Violent Radicalization: A Systematic Review of Research." International Journal of Developmental Science 12, no. 1–2 (2018): 89–102. http://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-170241 |
| Enjoying going to school and/or studying/attachment to school | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) affinity for school | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a small effect size for this protective factor. |
| Low-expression variant of the monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) gene (birth defect) | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) affinity for violence | The low-expression variant of the monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) gene has a particularly high affinity for violent behavior, especially if it occurs in combination with traumatic childhood experiences. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Traumatic childhood experiences | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | One article provide support for this risk factor: Caspi, Avshalom, and Terrie E Moffitt. “Gene–Environment Interactions in Psychiatry: Joining Forces with Neuroscience.” Nature reviews. Neuroscience 7, no. 7 (2006): 583–590. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11920-019-1065-5 |
| Impaired posterior cingulate cortex | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) affinity for violence | The posterior cingulate cortex is found to be impaired in persons inclined to violence. This brain area is linked to cognitive functions, including regulating attentional focus, and belongs to the so-called default mode network | Unspecified | The posterior cingulate cortex is found to be impaired in persons inclined to violence. This region was smaller in an investigation of violent offenders versus healthy nonviolent controls . The article associates these risk factors to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | Four articles provide support for this risk factor: Davidson, Richard J, Katherine M Putnam, and Christine L Larson. “Dysfunction in the Neural Circuitry of Emotion Regulation: A Possible Prelude to Violence.” Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 289, no. 5479 (2000): 591–594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pscychresns.2007.08.012 Buckner, Randy L, Jessica R Andrews-Hanna, and Daniel L Schacter. “The Brain’s Default Network: Anatomy, Function, and Relevance to Disease.” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1124, no. 1 (2008): 1–38. https://doi.org/10.1196/annals.1440.011 Hahn, Britta, Thomas J Ross, and Elliot A Stein. “Cingulate Activation Increases Dynamically with Response Speed under Stimulus Unpredictability.” Cerebral cortex (New York, N.Y. 1991) 17, no. 7 (2007): 1664–1671. https://doi.org/10.1093/cercor/bhl075 Leech, Robert, and David J SHARP. “The Role of the Posterior Cingulate Cortex in Cognition and Disease.” Brain (London, England : 1878) 137, no. Pt 1 (2014): 12–32. https://doi.org/10.1093/brain/awt162 |
| Brain abnormalities in the frontal and medial temporal brain regions (traumatic and neurodegenerative impairments of the prefonteral areas) | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) affinity for violence, Decision-making skills, Impulse/self control | The frontal and median temporal regions of the brain are an anatomically and functionally heterogeneous brain structures involved, for example, in executive functioning, motor control, behavioral/emotional self-regulation, social behavior, and moral decision making and are associated with violent behavior and aggression. | Unspecified | Violent offenders compared to the two nonoffender groups displayed a considerable higher rate of brain abnormalities in MRIs and CT scans. The observed brain damage or atrophy was located mainly in the frontal and medial temporal brain regions | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Schiltz, Kolja, Joachim G Witzel, Josef Bausch-Hölterhoff, and Bernhard Bogerts. “High Prevalence of Brain Pathology in Violent Prisoners: A Qualitative CT and MRI Scan Study.” European archives of psychiatry and clinical neuroscience 263, no. 7 (2013): 607–616. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00406-013-0403-6 |
| Damages in the temporal lobe | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) empathy | The many functions of the temporal lobe involve emotional and social processes, including theory of mind, meaning the ability to recognize the thoughts and feelings of others, and to empathize, as such, people whose temporal lobe is damaged have difficulties to empathize with others which makes them more likely to partake in violent extremism. | Unspecified | The article associates this risk factor to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Bannon, Sarah M, Katie Lee Salis, and K Daniel O’Leary. “Structural Brain Abnormalities in Aggression and Violent Behavior.” Aggression and violent behavior 25 (2015): 323–331. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2015.09.016 |
| Reduced left insular cortical tissue | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) empathy | The insular cortical belongs to the brain system involved in emotional experiences and empathy, damages in this area can lead to aggression and violent behavior, hence people with reduced insular cortical tissue have difficulty empathizing which makes them prone to violent extremism. | Unspecified | The article associates this risk factor to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Schiffer, Boris, Bernhard W Müller, Norbert Scherbaum, Sheilagh Hodgins, Michael Forsting, Jens Wiltfang, Elke R Gizewski, and Norbert Leygraf. “Disentangling Structural Brain Alterations Associated With Violent Behavior From Those Associated With Substance Use Disorders.” Archives of general psychiatry 68, no. 10 (2011): 1039–1049. https://doi.org/10.1001/archgenpsychiatry.2011.61 |
| Insular gray matter volume reductions (i.e. decreased cortical tissue in the posterior insula) | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) empathy | The insular cortical belongs to the brain system involved in emotional experiences and empathy, damages in this area can lead to aggression and violent behavior, hence people with reduced insular cortical tissue have difficulty empathizing which makes them prone to violent extremism. | Unspecified | The article associates this risk factor to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Cope, Lora M., Elsa Ermer, Lyn M. Gaudet, Vaughn R. Steele, Alex L. Eckhardt, Mohammad R. Arbabshirani, Michael F. Caldwell, Vince D. Calhoun, and Kent A. Kiehl. "Abnormal brain structure in youth who commit homicide." Neuroimage: clinical 4 (2014): 800-807. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nicl.2014.05.002 |
| Cortical thinning and gray matter volume reduction in the pole of the temporal lobe | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) empathy | The insular cortical belongs to the brain system involved in emotional experiences and empathy, damages in this area can lead to aggression and violent behavior, hence people with reduced insular cortical tissue have difficulty empathizing which makes them prone to violent extremism. | Unspecified | The article associates this risk factor to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | One study provides support for this risk factor: Gregory, Sarah, Dominic ffytche, Andrew Simmons, Veena Kumari, Matthew Howard, Sheilagh Hodgins, and Nigel Blackwood. “The Antisocial Brain: Psychopathy Matters.” Archives of general psychiatry 69, no. 9 (2012): 962–972. https://doi.org/10.1001/archgenpsychiatry.2012.222 |
| Tissue reduction in the postcentral gyrus (lateral parietal lobe) | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) empathy | This region of the brain regulates empathy, damages to that region can lead to aggression and violent behavior because of a lack of empathy. | Unspecified | The article associates this risk factor to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | One study provides support for this risk factor: Bertsch, Katja, Michel Grothe, Kristin Prehn, Knut Vohs, Christoph Berger, Karlheinz Hauenstein, Peter Keiper, Gregor Domes, Stefan Teipel, and Sabine C Herpertz. “Brain Volumes Differ between Diagnostic Groups of Violent Criminal Offenders.” European archives of psychiatry and clinical neuroscience 263, no. 7 (2013): 593–606. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00406-013-0391-6 |
| Functional deficits in the cingulate cortex | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) empathy | This region of the brain regulates empathy, damages to that region can lead to aggression and violent behavior because of a lack of empathy. | Unspecified | The article associates this risk factor to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | Two articles provide support for this risk factor: Lee, T M C, S C Chan, and A Raine. “Strong Limbic and Weak Frontal Activation to Aggressive Stimuli in Spouse Abusers.” Molecular psychiatry 13, no. 7 (2008): 655–656. https://doi.org/10.1038/mp.2008.46 Meffert, Harma, Valeria Gazolla, Johan A Den Boer, Arnold A. J Bartels, and Christian Keysers. “Reduced Spontaneous but Relatively Normal Deliberate Vicarious Representations in Psychopathy.” Brain (London, England : 1878) 136, no. Pt 8 (2013): 2550–2562. https://doi.org/10.1093/brain/awt190 |
| Increased volume of the cerebellum | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) empathy, Decision-making skills | The cerebellum is involved in cognition and emotion as well as empathy and moral judgement. Damages of the cerebellum can lead to violent behavior and aggression. | Unspecified | The article associates this risk factor to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | Two studies provide support for this risk factor: Leutgeb, V, M Leitner, A Wabnegger, D Klug, W Scharmüller, T Zussner, and A Schienle. “Brain Abnormalities in High-Risk Violent Offenders and Their Association with Psychopathic Traits and Criminal Recidivism.” Neuroscience 308 (2015): 194–201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroscience.2015.09.011 Leutgeb, Verena, Albert Wabnegger, Mario Leitner, Thomas Zussner, Wilfried Scharmüller, Doris Klug, and Anne Schienle. “Altered Cerebellar-Amygdala Connectivity in Violent Offenders: A Resting-State fMRI Study.” Neuroscience letters 610 (2016): 160–164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neulet.2015.10.063 |
| Increased volume of the cerebellum | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) empathy, Decision-making skills | The cerebellum is involved in cognition and emotion as well as empathy and moral judgement. Damages of the cerebellum can lead to violent behavior and aggression. | Unspecified | The article associates this risk factor to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | One article opposes this risk factor: Puri, Basant K, Serena J Counsell, Nadeem Saeed, Marcelo G Bustos, Ian H Treasaden, and Graeme M Bydder. “Regional Grey Matter Volumetric Changes in Forensic Schizophrenia Patients: An MRI Study Comparing the Brain Structure of Patients Who Have Seriously and Violently Offended with That of Patients Who Have Not.” BMC psychiatry 8 Suppl 1, no. S1 (2008): S6–S6. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-244X-8-S1-S6 |
| Reduced amygdala volume | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) empathy, Impulse/self control | The amygdala is one of the key structures in recent neurobiological models of violence. This medial temporal lobe structure is the central part of the limbic system and can be divided into three nuclear complexes: basolateral, centromedial, and cortical/superficial. The amygdala is involved in fear conditioning, emotion expression and recognition, emotionally influenced memory, and moral reasoning. Furthermore, it is a key structure for emotion regulation belonging to a circuitry that also consists of the orbital brain, the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, and the anterior cingulate cortex. Damages of the amygdala can lead to violent behavior and aggression. | Unspecified | The article associates this risk factor to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | Two studies provide support for this risk factor: Pardini, Dustin A, Adrian Raine, Kirk Erickson, and Rolf Loeber. “Lower Amygdala Volume in Men Is Associated with Childhood Aggression, Early Psychopathic Traits, and Future Violence.” Biological psychiatry (1969) 75, no. 1 (2014): 73–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biopsych.2013.04.003 Del Bene, Victor A, John J Foxe, Lars A Ross, Menahem I Krakowski, Pal Czobor, and Pierfilippo De Sanctis. “Neuroanatomical Abnormalities in Violent Individuals with and without a Diagnosis of Schizophrenia.” PloS one 11, no. 12 (2016): e0168100–e0168100. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0168100 |
| Reduced amygdala volume | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) empathy, Impulse/self control | The amygdala is one of the key structures in recent neurobiological models of violence. This medial temporal lobe structure is the central part of the limbic system and can be divided into three nuclear complexes: basolateral, centromedial, and cortical/superficial. The amygdala is involved in fear conditioning, emotion expression and recognition, emotionally influenced memory, and moral reasoning. Furthermore, it is a key structure for emotion regulation belonging to a circuitry that also consists of the orbital brain, the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, and the anterior cingulate cortex. Damages of the amygdala can lead to violent behavior and aggression. | Unspecified | The article associates this risk factor to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | One article does not provide support for this risk factor: Schiffer, Boris, Bernhard W Müller, Norbert Scherbaum, Sheilagh Hodgins, Michael Forsting, Jens Wiltfang, Elke R Gizewski, and Norbert Leygraf. “Disentangling Structural Brain Alterations Associated With Violent Behavior From Those Associated With Substance Use Disorders.” Archives of general psychiatry 68, no. 10 (2011): 1039–1049. https://doi.org/10.1001/archgenpsychiatry.2011.61 |
| Low sense of belonging | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | Two articles are referenced in support; Borum, Randy. Psychology of Terrorism. University of South Florida, 2004. Available at: https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/mhlp_facpub/571/ Ventriglio, Antonio, and Dinesh Bhugra. "Identity, Alienation, and Violent Radicalization." In Evil, Terrorism and Psychiatry, edited by Donatella Marazziti and Stephen M. Stahl, 17–29. Cambridge University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108569095 |
| Failed social integration in society | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites two articles as support for this risk factor; Pauwels, Lieven, and Maarten De Waele. "Youth Involvement in Politically Motivated Violence: Why Do Social Integration, Perceived Legitimacy, and Perceived Discrimination Matter?" International Journal of Conflict and Violence 8, no. 1 (2014): 134–153. https://doi.org/10.4119/ijcv-3050 Pauwels, Lieven, and Nele Schils. "Differential Online Exposure to Extremist Content and Political Violence: Testing the Relative Strength of Social Learning and Competing Perspectives." Terrorism and Political Violence 28, no. 1 (2016): 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2013.876414 |
| Social exclusion | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites one article as support for this risk factor; Pfundmair, Michaela, and Geoffrey Wetherell. "Ostracism Drives Group Moralization and Extreme Group Behavior." The Journal of Social Psychology 159, no. 5 (2019): 518–530. https://doi.org/10.1080/00224545.2018.1512947 |
| Social ostracism | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites one article as support for this risk factor; Pfundmair, Michaela, and Geoffrey Wetherell. "Ostracism Drives Group Moralization and Extreme Group Behavior." The Journal of Social Psychology 159, no. 5 (2019): 518–530. https://doi.org/10.1080/00224545.2018.1512947 |
| Failed integration / having a low degree of attachment to society | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a small effect size for this risk factor |
| Experiencing relationship problems | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a very small effect size for this risk factor |
| Relatively high levels of social isolation | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Böckler; Germany Botha; Kenya | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | Four articles depicting relatively high levels of social isolation Böckler, Nils, Vincenz Leuschner, Andreas Zick, and Herbert Scheithauer. “Same but Different? Developmental Pathways to Demonstrative Targeted Attacks — Qualitative Case Analyses of Adolescent and Young Adult Perpetrators of Targeted School Attacks and Jihadi Terrorist Attacks in Germany.” International journal of developmental science 12, no. 1–2 (2018): 5–24. https://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-180255 Beardsley, Nicola L, and Anthony R Beech. “Applying the Violent Extremist Risk Assessment (VERA) to a Sample of Terrorist Case Studies.” Journal of aggression, conflict and peace research 5, no. 1 (2013): 4–15. https://doi.org/10.1108/17596591311290713 Botha, Anneli. “Political Socialization and Terrorist Radicalization Among Individuals Who Joined Al-Shabaab in Kenya.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 37, no. 11 (2014): 895–919. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2014.952511 Knight, Sarah, Katie Woodward, and Gary L. J Lancaster. “Violent Versus Nonviolent Actors: An Empirical Study of Different Types of Extremism.” Journal of threat assessment and management 4, no. 4 (2017): 230–248. https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000086 |
| Feelings of rejection by the community | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | The study says that "based on the “mixed” results, psychological mechanisms were found to be at work in terrorist or violent extremist behaviors compared to their hypothesis, including feelings of rejection by the community. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | Overall review |
| Absence of pro-social ties such as employment, education and family commitments increases the likelihood that an individual will engage in delinquent behavior, including radicalization and terrorism | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Social Control Theory posits that an absence of pro-social ties such as employment, education and family commitments increases the likelihood that an individual will engage in delinquent behavior, including radicalization and terrorism. | Unspecified | No sufficient association | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | Two articles do not provide support for this risk factor: LaFree G, Jensen MA, James PA, Safer-Lichtenstein A. Correlates of violent political extremism in the United States. Criminology. 2018; 56: 233–268. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9125.12169 Hirschi T. Causes of delinquency. Berkeley / Los Angeles: University of California press; 1969. |
| Social control, i.e. individuals with pro-social ties to society, such as those gained through employment, educational commitments, or being in a relationship | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | The criminological theory of “social control” postulates that individuals with pro-social ties to society, such as those gained through employment, educational commitments, or being in a relationship, are less likely to engage in criminal or delinquent behavior. | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy found that radicalized individuals with pro-social ties were less likely to engage in terrorist violence (though, in many cases, they still engaged in other illegal, and oftentimes violent, activities in furtherance of their extremist convictions). With regard to several of these pro-social ties, Schuurman and Carthy observed that they were only associated with radicalization processes not leading to terrorist violence when they were present after radicalization onset, but not before these processes got underway. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article provides support for this protective factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 Two other studies also provide support for this protective factor: Becker MH. When extremists become violent: examining the association between social control, social learning, and engagement in violent extremism. Stud Confl Terror. 2021; 44: 1104–1124. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2019.1626093 LaFree G, Jensen MA, James PA, Safer-Lichtenstein A. Correlates of violent political extremism in the United States. Criminology. 2018; 56: 233–268. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9125.12169 |
| Social isolation before radicalization | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Acceptance of police legitimacy | Dynamic protective factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) trust in institutions | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Youth | No differentiation | Belgium | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article analyzes how radicalization may lead to violent behavioral outcomes, which the authors define as "violent extremist behavior against persons and property" | Lösel, Friedrich, Sonja King, Doris Bender, and Irina Jugl. "Protective Factors Against Extremism and Violent Radicalization: A Systematic Review of Research." International Journal of Developmental Science 12, no. 1-2 (2018): 89-102. https://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-170241 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | 17 reports containing 21 analyses that specifically addressed potential protective effects and provided quantitative data. 11 analyses addressed protective factors against religious/ethnic extremism. Five analyses investigated protective factors against far-right extremism, two far-left, one nationalist/separatist, and two mixed orientation. | One study was analyzed and the author's reported the effect as a main finding: A person who accepts police legitimacy is less prone to right-wing extremism. Pauwels, Lieven, and Maarten De Waele. "Youth Involvement in Politically Motivated Violence: Why Do Social Integration, Perceived Legitimacy, and Perceived Discrimination Matter?" International Journal of Conflict and Violence 8, no. 1 (2014): 134–153. http://doi.org/10.4119/ijcv-3050 |
| Believing in law legitimacy, or having respect for the government/law/authorities | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) trust in justice | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a small effect size for this protective factor |
| Rejection of democratic principles and principles of constitutional state law | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) trust in justice | The rejection of democratic principles and principles of constitutional state law may underlie the transformation of radicalization into violent extremism. Violent extremism and terrorism constitute illegal acts, and not caring about the law can increase one's readiness to engage in them. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The author of this review article defines terrorism as the engagement of individuals or groups in ideologically motivated violence or other destructive acts against persons, property, or the fabric of society. They cite this definition from the Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service. Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service "Animal Rights Extremism in the Netherlands: Fragmented but Growing." The Hague: Neth. Gen. Intell. Secur. Serv. (2009). | Van den Bos, Kees. "Unfairness and Radicalization." Annual Review of Psychology 71 (2020): 563–588. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050953 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Van den Bos, 2018 serves as an organizational framework for this article, the author doesn't specify what articles were used for the research. | Four references provide support for this risk factor: Ashour, Omar. The De-Radicalization of Jihadists: Transforming Armed Islamist Movements. New York: Routledge, 2009. Sprinzak, Eitan. "Right-Wing Terrorism in a Comparative Perspective: The Case of Split Delegitimization." Terrorism and Political Violence 7 (1995): 17–43. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546559508427284 Van den Bos, K. A. Why People Radicalize. New York: Oxford University Press, 2018. Mak, E., and S. Taekema. "The European Union’s Rule of Law Agenda: Identifying Its Core and Contextualizing Its Application." Hague Journal on the Rule of Law 8 (2016): 25–50. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40803-016-0022-1 |
| Being thrill-seeking | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Low) sensation seeking | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | The review mentions three articles as support for several risk or protective factors; Leuprecht, Christian, Todd Hataley, Sophia Moskalenko, and Clark McCauley. "Containing the Narrative: Strategy and Tactics in Countering the Storyline of Global Jihad." Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism 5, no. 1 (2010): 42–57. https://doi.org/10.1080/18335300.2010.9686940 McCauley, Clark, and Sophia Moskalenko. "Mechanisms of Political Radicalization: Pathways Toward Terrorism." Terrorism and Political Violence 20, no. 3 (2008): 415–433. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546550802073367 Moskalenko, Sophia, y Clark McCauley. Radicalization to Terrorism: What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford University Press, 2020. |
| Having thrill-seeking and risk-taking attitudes | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Low) sensation seeking | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment, Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites one article as support for this risk factor; Silke, Andrew. "Holy Warriors: Exploring the Psychological Processes of Jihadi Radicalization." European Journal of Criminology 5, no. 1 (2008): 99–123. https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370807084226 |
| Having thrill-seeking and risk-taking attitudes | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Low) sensation seeking | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites one article as support for this risk factor; Pauwels, Lieven, and Nele Schils. "Differential Online Exposure to Extremist Content and Political Violence: Testing the Relative Strength of Social Learning and Competing Perspectives." Terrorism and Political Violence 28, no. 1 (2016): 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2013.876414 |
| Thrill or risk-seeking behavior and attitudes | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Low) sensation seeking | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a small effect size for this risk factor |
| Sensation seeking or novelty-seeking | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Low) sensation seeking | Sensation seeking is a personality trait that consists of a constant search for novel and intense experiences and a tolerance for related risks. High sensation seekers are more prone to a set of risk-taking activities, including reckless behavior like sex with casual acquaintances or without contraception, alcohol and drug use, vandalism and theft, and other types of antisocial behavior. High sensation seekers tend to underestimate risks. The author extends this theory to hypothesize that if risk is not preventing combatants of such groups from staying outside of rebel groups, it might actually attract sensation seekers. | Unspecified | As stated in Victoroff’s review of social psychological literature on participation in terrorism, “it seems plausible that individuals exhibiting such traits [e.g., novelty-seeking] are disproportionately represented among terrorists, pending supportive evidence.” | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | Two articles are cited in support: Victoroff, Jeff. “The Mind of the Terrorist: A Review and Critique of Psychological Approaches.” The Journal of conflict resolution 49, no. 1 (2005): 3–42. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002704272040 Kruglanski, Arie W, and Shira Fishman. “The Psychology of Terrorism: ‘Syndrome’ Versus ‘Tool’ Perspectives.” Terrorism and political violence 18, no. 2 (2006): 193–215. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546550600570119. |
| Having a duty of care post radicalization-onset (e.g. taking care of elderly parents) | Static protective factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (No) duty of care | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy found that having a duty of care post radicalization-onset (e.g. becoming a parent or taking care of elderly parents) was positively associated with non-involvement in terrorist violence. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article provides support for this protective factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Mental disorder characterized by cognitive and emotional disturbances, abnormal behaviours, impaired functioning, or any combination of these | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Terrorist organisations prefer not to recruit individuals with mental disorders because they prefer recruits who can be trusted, are reliable and can take direction. | Mental disorders diagnosed by an appropriately trained mental health professional. (It requires careful assessment by a professional, often in collaboration with the individual being assessed, of the presence or absence of various criteria.) | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The article says that while there is no universally accepted definition of terrorist behavior, there is at least some consensus that it refers to: (a) an act or campaign of actual or threatened violence that seeks to elicit the terror emotion in a target audience and; (b) with the intention of bringing about change in line with the world‐view of the terrorist. Terrorist behavior intends to cause harm, physical or otherwise. | Sarma, Kiran M, Sarah L Carthy, and Katie M Cox. “Mental Disorder, Psychological Problems and Terrorist Behaviour: A Systematic Review and Meta‐analysis.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1268-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1268 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | 56 papers reporting on 73 terrorist samples (studies) | The review study finds some overall support that mental health difficulties are protective against terrorist involvement, with most echoing what King et al. (2018) refer to as a selection effect, whereby terrorist organisations prefer recruits who can be trusted, are reliable and can take direction. King, Sonja, Johann Endres, Mariann Schwaβ, Mark Stemmler, Lora Lauchs, Andreas Armborst, Vincenz Leuschner, et al. “Prisoners with Islamist Relations: Are Prisoner Files a Valuable Data Source for Individual Assessment and for Research?” International journal of developmental science 12, no. 1–2 (2018): 129–141. https://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-170243 |
| Melancholy | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Un)happiness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Merari (2002) interviewed 15 suicide bombers intercepted moments before their attacks. In 53% of cases, suicide terrorists presented symptoms of depression and melancholy, and in 20% of cases, symptoms of PTSD. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The study defines suicide terrorism as “the targeted use of self-destructive men against a population of non-combatants (typically civilians), in order to effect political change” (Atran, 2003). The study uses the phrase "suicide terrorist” to refer to kamikased or human bombs (suicide terrorists); a voluntarist who gives his or her life to achieve a political objective (Barzin, 2010). Suicide terrorism is the only form of combat in which the attacker contemplates extreme actions in which he does not expect to survive the mission (Pape, 2005), and in which the chances of returning surviving are “close to zero” (Pedahzur, 2006). | Fekih-Romdhane, Feten, Leila Chennoufi, and Mejda Cheour. “Les terroristes suicidaires : qui sont-ils ?” Annales médico psychologiques 174, no. 4 (2016): 274–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2015.10.026 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | This study is a literature review surveying 41 academic and grey literature sources which analyse various aspects of suicide terrorism. | One presented study provides support for this risk factor: Merari, Ariel. "The psychology of extremism." In Institute for Social Research seminar series, University of Michigan. 2002. |
| Being in their teens and twenties | Static risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Children, Youth, Adults | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: U.S. Government Accountability Office. "Countering Violent Extremism: Actions Needed to Define Strategy and Assess Progress of Federal Efforts." Report. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2017 HOPE not hate. "The International Alternative Right." Report. London: HOPE not hate, 2017 |
| Higher age | Static protective factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a very small effect size for this risk factor |
| Countries with a greater ratio of young men to old | Static protective factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | All ages | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited in support: Gibson, Kyle. “The Roles of Operational Sex Ratio and Young-Old Ratio in Producing Suicide Attackers.” ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2011. |
| Angry, resentful, furious, or displeased with a given issue or situation | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Anger/resentment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a small effect size for this risk factor |
| Anger and other externally oriented behavioral tendencies | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Anger/resentment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The author of this review article defines terrorism as the engagement of individuals or groups in ideologically motivated violence or other destructive acts against persons, property, or the fabric of society. They cite this definition from the Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service. Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service "Animal Rights Extremism in the Netherlands: Fragmented but Growing." The Hague: Neth. Gen. Intell. Secur. Serv. (2009). | Van den Bos, Kees. "Unfairness and Radicalization." Annual Review of Psychology 71 (2020): 563–588. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050953 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Van den Bos, 2018 serves as an organizational framework for this article, the author doesn't specify what articles were used for the research. | One reference provides support for this risk factor, finding that more often than not, it is anger and other externally oriented behavior tendencies that are needed for people to engage in violent and offensive behavior, such as extremist and terrorist acts. Van den Bos, K. Why People Radicalize. New York: Oxford University Press, 2018. |
| Emotions such as anger | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Anger/resentment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Van Stekelenburg J, Klandermans B. The social psychology of protest. Curr Sociol. 2013; 61: 886– 905. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011392113479314 |
| Mixed regimes | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Regime | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Anocracy | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited, which does not find support for this primary hypothesis. Wade, Sara Jackson, and Dan Reiter. “Does Democracy Matter? Regime Type and Suicide Terrorism.” The Journal of conflict resolution 51, no. 2 (2007): 329–348. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002706298137 |
| Support for or justification of radical violence in the name of a cause | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Approval/disapproval of violence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a moderate effect size for this risk factor |
| Positive attitudes about violence | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Approval/disapproval of violence | If people build up more positive attitudes towards violence, this increases the chances that they will take the step to carry out violent extremist actions. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The author of this review article defines terrorism as the engagement of individuals or groups in ideologically motivated violence or other destructive acts against persons, property, or the fabric of society. They cite this definition from the Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service. Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service "Animal Rights Extremism in the Netherlands: Fragmented but Growing." The Hague: Neth. Gen. Intell. Secur. Serv. (2009). | Van den Bos, Kees. "Unfairness and Radicalization." Annual Review of Psychology 71 (2020): 563–588. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050953 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Van den Bos, 2018 serves as an organizational framework for this article, the author doesn't specify what articles were used for the research. | One report provides support for this risk factor: Feddes, Allard R., Lotte Nickolson, and H. B. Doosje. Triggerfactoren in het Radicaliseringsproces. The Hague/Amsterdam: Expertise-unit Social Stability / University of Amsterdam, 2015 https://hdl.handle.net/11245/1.505222 |
| Martyrdom culture | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Approval/disapproval of violence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Lachal's (2005) research shows that the role of martydom culture in suicide operations may be overestimated. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The study defines suicide terrorism as “the targeted use of self-destructive men against a population of non-combatants (typically civilians), in order to effect political change” (Atran, 2003). The study uses the phrase "suicide terrorist” to refer to kamikased or human bombs (suicide terrorists); a voluntarist who gives his or her life to achieve a political objective (Barzin, 2010). Suicide terrorism is the only form of combat in which the attacker contemplates extreme actions in which he does not expect to survive the mission (Pape, 2005), and in which the chances of returning surviving are “close to zero” (Pedahzur, 2006). | Fekih-Romdhane, Feten, Leila Chennoufi, and Mejda Cheour. “Les terroristes suicidaires : qui sont-ils ?” Annales médico psychologiques 174, no. 4 (2016): 274–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2015.10.026 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | This study is a literature review surveying 41 academic and grey literature sources which analyse various aspects of suicide terrorism. | Two articles find no association between martyrdom culture and suicide terrorism: Lachal et al. "Suicide bombers. Transgressions à l'adolescence: de l'acte à l'élaboration." Champ psychosomatique. 2005 https://doi.org/10.3917/cpsy.038.0051. Sheehan, Ivan Sascha. “Are Suicide Terrorists Suicidal? A Critical Assessment of the Evidence.” Innovations in clinical neuroscience 11, no. 9–10 (2014): 81–92. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25520891/ |
| Submissive to higher authority/aggression to out‐groups (authoritarianism/fundamentalism) | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Regime | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Autoritarianism | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a small effect size for this risk factor |
| Being a first or second generation immigrant | Static risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Being a migrant/refugee/displaced | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a very small effect size for this risk factor |
| Acknowledgement of value complexity | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Cognitive sophistication/rigidity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Youth | No differentiation | United Kingdom | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article analyzes how radicalization may lead to violent behavioral outcomes, which the authors define as "violent extremist behavior against persons and property" | Lösel, Friedrich, Sonja King, Doris Bender, and Irina Jugl. "Protective Factors Against Extremism and Violent Radicalization: A Systematic Review of Research." International Journal of Developmental Science 12, no. 1-2 (2018): 89-102. https://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-170241 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | 17 reports containing 21 analyses that specifically addressed potential protective effects and provided quantitative data. 11 analyses addressed protective factors against religious/ethnic extremism. Five analyses investigated protective factors against far-right extremism, two far-left, one nationalist/separatist, and two mixed orientation. | One study was analyzed and the author's reported the effect as a main finding: A person who values complexity is less prone to religious / ethnic extremism. Liht, Jose, and Sara Savage. "Preventing Violent Extremism through Value Complexity: Being Muslim Being British." Journal of Strategic Security 6, no. 4 (2013): 44–66. DOI: http://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.6.4.3 |
| Viewpoint diversity before radicalization | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Cognitive sophistication/rigidity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Cognitive deficit | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Cognitive sophistication/rigidity, Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | A Kabul pathologist found that more than 80% of the kamikazes he studied had a physical or mental disorder (Fekih-Romdhane et al 2016). | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The study defines suicide terrorism as “the targeted use of self-destructive men against a population of non-combatants (typically civilians), in order to effect political change” (Atran, 2003). The study uses the phrase "suicide terrorist” to refer to kamikased or human bombs (suicide terrorists); a voluntarist who gives his or her life to achieve a political objective (Barzin, 2010). Suicide terrorism is the only form of combat in which the attacker contemplates extreme actions in which he does not expect to survive the mission (Pape, 2005), and in which the chances of returning surviving are “close to zero” (Pedahzur, 2006). | Fekih-Romdhane, Feten, Leila Chennoufi, and Mejda Cheour. “Les terroristes suicidaires : qui sont-ils ?” Annales médico psychologiques 174, no. 4 (2016): 274–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2015.10.026 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | This study is a literature review surveying 41 academic and grey literature sources which analyse various aspects of suicide terrorism. | Two reports provide support for this risk factor: Nelson, Soraya Sarhaddi. "Disabled often carry out Afghan suicide missions." National Public Radio 15 (2007). Williams, Brian Glyn. "Mullah Omar's missiles: A field report on suicide bombers in Afghanistan." Middle East Policy 15, no. 4 (2008): 26-46. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4967.2008.00367.x |
| Cognition of injustices perpetrated by a corrupt socio-political system | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Corruption/good governance | As Della Porta [38 p. 136] has aptly observed, “conversion to violence requires a specific redefinition of reality”. The cognitive change that is inherent in any radicalization process may make pre-existing grievances suddenly salient, rather than those grievances or biographical stressors “predicting” whether an individual will radicalize to involvement in terrorist violence. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 This finding is also corroborated by one article: Della Porta D. Social movements, political violence, and the state. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 1995. |
| Being a perpetrator of domestic abuse in adulthood | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Criminal/Violent history | Unspecified | Unspecified | This study did not show a significant effect between a perpetrator of domestic abuse in adulthood and violent extremist behavior. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Adults | No differentiation | Lone‐actor terrorists who planned their attacks in the US, UK, Europe, or Australia. | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article is referenced which did not show a significant effect: Clemmow, Caitlin, Sandy Schumann, Nadine L. Salman, and Paul Gill. "The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism." Journal of Forensic Sciences 65, no. 3 (2020): 865–881. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.14282 |
| Previous incarcerations | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Criminal/Violent history | Unspecified | Unspecified | A large and statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a large effect size for this risk factor |
| Having a criminal record | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Criminal/Violent history | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a moderate effect size for this risk factor |
| Having a history of previous criminal career | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Criminal/Violent history | Individuals who join terror groups very often have a history of a previous criminal career. It was reasoned that, because of their inherent readiness to violence, such persons search for suitable ideologies under which to act out their tendencies to harm, injure, and kill. | Unspecified | Analyzing the case histories of 784 persons in Germany who joined the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) between 2012 and 2015, it was found that two-thirds of these overwhelmingly male persons were known to the police because of violence, property offences, or political criminal acts. In fact, more than half had committed three or more criminal offences before joining ISIL. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Germany | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz. Analyse der den deutschen Sicherheitsbehörden vorliegenden Informationen über die Radikalisierungshintergründe und -verläufe der Personen, die aus islamistischer Motivation aus Deutschland in Richtung Syrien ausgereist sind—so lautet der Titel [in German]; Ständige Konferenz der Innenminister und senatoren der Linder; 2016. http://www.innenministerkonferenz.de/IMK/DE/termine/to-beschluesse/14-12-11_12/anlage-analyse.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2 |
| Non-violent non-terrorism criminal antecedents (prior to radicalization) | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Criminal/Violent history | Criminals are both especially sought-after by extremist groups and movements for their particular skillset, and themselves more likely to seek redemption or increased status by placing their criminal expertise at the disposal of their newfound extremist convictions . | Unspecified | Shuurman and Carthy found that non-violent non-terrorism criminal antecedents are strongly associated with violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 This finding is also corroborated by one article: Ilan J, Sandberg S. How “gangsters” become jihadists: Bourdieu, criminology and the crime-terror nexus. Eur J Criminol. 2019;Online first. https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370819828936 |
| Violent non-terrorism criminal antecedents (prior to radicalization) | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Criminal/Violent history | Criminals are both especially sought-after by extremist groups and movements for their particular skillset, and themselves more likely to seek redemption or increased status by placing their criminal expertise at the disposal of their newfound extremist convictions . | Unspecified | Shuurman and Carthy found a strong association between violent non-terrorism criminal antecendents and violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 This finding is also corroborated by one article: Ilan J, Sandberg S. How “gangsters” become jihadists: Bourdieu, criminology and the crime-terror nexus. Eur J Criminol. 2019;Online first. https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370819828936 |
| Non-violent crime during radicalization | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Criminal/Violent history | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Committing violent and non-violent crimes during radicalization | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Criminal/Violent history | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Increased stocks of foreign fighters in the neighborhood resulting from rebel victories in conflicts abroad | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Criminal/Violent history | In instances of rebel victory, it is not plausible for all rebels to be employed in legitimate pursuits of government, nor is it realistic that every rebel (especially those that are foreign fighters) will want to lay down their arms and pursue legal alternatives. Accordingly, rebel victory in conflicts abroad may be associated with the availability of additional foreign fighters to the stock of terror campaigns at home. Foreign fighters who participated in successful civil conflicts are likely to represent better quality fighters, who could prove more valuable to any subsequent campaigns that they join. Foreign fighters arriving locally from a winning campaign elsewhere can have the effect of invigorating local rebel fighters. | Two variables/indicators that capture the presence of foreign fighers (FF) in civil conflicts: 1) Ongoing conflicts with FFs measured as a simple count of the number of civil conflicts ongoing that year that involved participation of FFs on the side of the rebels 2) Spatial lag: rebel victory with FFs measured as a simple count of the number of civil conflicts that ended with rebel victory including FFs and that are ongoing that year. | The main findings of the authors' statistical analysis corroborate this risk factor. This is noteworthy, given that the other explanatory factors included in their analysis (democracy, ongoing civil conflict etc.) are among the most robust predictors of terrorist violence in the literature. | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The authors define terrorism as "the premeditated use or threat to use violence by individuals or subnational groups against noncombatants in order to obtain a political or social objective through the intimidation of a large audience beyond that of the immediate victims” (Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev 2011, 321). The authors note that their definition of terrorism does not include acts of terrorism committed by the government, focuses exclusively upon politically motivated acts, and involves attacks against civilians, officials, and/or noncombatants. | Braithwaite, Alex, and Tiffany S Chu. “Civil Conflicts Abroad, Foreign Fighters, and Terrorism at Home.” The Journal of conflict resolution 62, no. 8 (2018): 1636–1660. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717707304 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This quantitative study builds a dataset to examine the relationship between the number of terrorist attacks taking place every year in most countries, and several explanatory factors. The number of terrorist attacks per country/year include both domestic and transnational terrorist activities, and are drawn from Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev’s (2011) version of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). | The results of the authors' statistical analysis provide support for this risk factor. Braithwaite, Alex, and Tiffany S Chu. “Civil Conflicts Abroad, Foreign Fighters, and Terrorism at Home.” The Journal of conflict resolution 62, no. 8 (2018): 1636–1660. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717707304 |
| Perceiving the other as inhumane | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Dehumanization | At the mass level, group members become more extreme in their negative perceptions of one another, particularly when group conflict involves prolonged violence. This tendency can become so extreme that the enemy is no longer seen as human - allowing for terrorism. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The author of this review article defines terrorism as the engagement of individuals or groups in ideologically motivated violence or other destructive acts against persons, property, or the fabric of society. They cite this definition from the Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service. Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service "Animal Rights Extremism in the Netherlands: Fragmented but Growing." The Hague: Neth. Gen. Intell. Secur. Serv. (2009). | Van den Bos, Kees. "Unfairness and Radicalization." Annual Review of Psychology 71 (2020): 563–588. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050953 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Van den Bos, 2018 serves as an organizational framework for this article, the author doesn't specify what articles were used for the research. | Two articles provide support for this risk factor: McCauley, Carolyn, and Sophia Moskalenko. "Mechanisms of Political Radicalization: Pathways Toward Terrorism." Terrorism and Political Violence 20 (2008): 415–33. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546550802073367 McCauley, Carolyn, and Melvin E. Segal. "Social Psychology of Terrorist Groups." In Psychology of Terrorism: Classic and Contemporary Insights, edited by John Victoroff and Arie W. Kruglanski, 331–46. New York: Psychology Press, 2009. |
| Dehumanization of the opponent | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Dehumanization | Because radicalization often involves a process resulting in the perception that violence is a necessary instrument to advance or safeguard cherished values or political ambitions - it is often necessary for their first to be a dehumanization of the opponent. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Bilewicz M, Soral W. Hate speech epidemic. The dynamic effects of derogatory language on inter- group relations and political radicalization. Polit Psychol. 2020; 41: 3–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12670 |
| Democracy | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Regime | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Democracy | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited, which does not find support for this primary hypothesis. Wade, Sara Jackson, and Dan Reiter. “Does Democracy Matter? Regime Type and Suicide Terrorism.” The Journal of conflict resolution 51, no. 2 (2007): 329–348. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002706298137 |
| States experiencing significant inflows of refugees | Static risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Demographic changes (incl. Migration/Forced diplacement) | Transnational networks of rebels can spread their campaigns across borders, potentially assisting sympathizers in neighboring countries or inspiring would-be militants to take up arms. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Jordan | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The article defines transnational jihadism as the following "Sunni Islamist militant movements leading a global armed struggle (jihad) with the goals of toppling regimes in the Muslim world that they regard as un-Islamic; and of deterring Western interference in Muslim affairs. The ultimate aim of this jihadism is the re-establishment of the Caliphate and the application of Islamic law" (Hegghammer, 2010 p.1-15). In the dataset created in this study, the authors consider acts of terrorism mostly as shootings and bombings (or plans for them) motivated by political and religious extremism in a country during peacetime, which falls well within what is considered terrorism by most scholars, regardless of how they define other aspects of it. | Nesser, Petter, and Henrik Gråtrud. “When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan.” Perspectives on politics 19, no. 2 (2021): 492–506. https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759271900389X | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A wide range of primary sources in Arabic and English gathered through online platforms and fieldwork, which allowed the authors to compile a novel dataset of jihadist attack activity in the kingdom of Jordan (from 1995 to 2018). While existing research on terrorism in Jordan and other non-Western countries tends only to examine launched attacks, the authors also included foiled terrorist plots to give a more accurate and comprehensive picture of the jihadist threat. | One book provides support for this risk factor: Salehyan, Idean. Rebels without Borders: Transnational Insurgencies in World Politics. 1st ed. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.7591/9780801459214 |
| Social stagnation or crisis | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Development/contraction of the economy | Political terror usually arises in times of social stagnation or crisis because "people see their way of life threatened or their hopes for future economic improvement or political advancement blocked and then seek a new sociopolitical system of shared values." | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Political terror | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: Ruggiero, Vincenzo. Visions of Political Violence. Nueva York: Routledge, 2020. |
| Economic stagnation or crisis | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Development/contraction of the economy | Political terror usually arises in times of economic stagnation or crisis because "people see their way of life threatened or their hopes for future economic improvement or political advancement blocked and then seek a new sociopolitical system of shared values." | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Political terror | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: Ruggiero, Vincenzo. Visions of Political Violence. Nueva York: Routledge, 2020. |
| Perceived personal discrimination | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Discrimination | Feelings of dissatisfaction may indicate internalizing behavior problems that lead to social withdrawal and thus can protect against affiliation with extremist groups. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Youth, Adults | No differentiation | Belgium | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article analyzes how radicalization may lead to violent behavioral outcomes, which the authors define as "violent extremist behavior against persons and property" | Lösel, Friedrich, Sonja King, Doris Bender, and Irina Jugl. "Protective Factors Against Extremism and Violent Radicalization: A Systematic Review of Research." International Journal of Developmental Science 12, no. 1-2 (2018): 89-102. https://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-170241 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | 17 reports containing 21 analyses that specifically addressed potential protective effects and provided quantitative data. 11 analyses addressed protective factors against religious/ethnic extremism. Five analyses investigated protective factors against far-right extremism, two far-left, one nationalist/separatist, and two mixed orientation. | One study was analyzed and the authors reported the effect as a protective factor against right-wing extremism. Pauwels, Lieven, and Maarten De Waele. "Youth Involvement in Politically Motivated Violence: Why Do Social Integration, Perceived Legitimacy, and Perceived Discrimination Matter?" International Journal of Conflict and Violence 8 (2014): 134–153. http://doi.org/10.4119/ijcv-3050 |
| Perceived discrimination | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Discrimination | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites two articles as support for this risk factor; Pauwels, Lieven, and Maarten De Waele. "Youth Involvement in Politically Motivated Violence: Why Do Social Integration, Perceived Legitimacy, and Perceived Discrimination Matter?" International Journal of Conflict and Violence 8, no. 1 (2014): 134–153. https://doi.org/10.4119/ijcv-3050 Pauwels, Lieven, and Nele Schils. "Differential Online Exposure to Extremist Content and Political Violence: Testing the Relative Strength of Social Learning and Competing Perspectives." Terrorism and Political Violence 28, no. 1 (2016): 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2013.876414 |
| Lack of political representation (ethnic exclusion and restricted political access) | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Discrimination | Unspecified | Unspecified | no sufficient association | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article mentions this risk factor: Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Sara M. T Polo. “Ethnic Inclusion, Democracy, and Terrorism.” Public choice 169, no. 3/4 (2016): 207–229. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-016-0360-5 |
| Counternarratives that seek simply to delegitimize (rather than to reinterpret and reframe) the sacred values | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Divisive/unifying narratives | Counternarratives that seek simply to delegitimize (rather than to reinterpret and reframe) the sacred values actually bolster people's attachment to sacred values and their willingness to fight for them. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: Atran, Scott. "Youth's role in countering violent extremism and promoting peace" Address to UN Secur. Counc New York: Apr. 25. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/in-gods-we-trust/201505/role-youth-countering-violent-extremism-promoting-peace US Senate 2010. U.S. government efforts to counter violent extremism. Hearing 111-822, 111th Congr., 2nd sess., March 9, testimony of Scott Atran. |
| Active engagement with/seeking out radical content | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Divisive/unifying narratives | Unspecified | Unspecified | The meta-analysis of this review study found a statistically significant result with a small effect, which was a slightly larger effect than passive exposure to content (print media / television). | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review looked at individual‐level media effects on two outcomes of radicalization, cognitive and behavioral, with cognitive radicalization being limited to support, justification of, or a willingness/intention toward the use of radical violence in the name of a cause or ideology, and behavioral radicalization pertaining to the actual involvement in such violence. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Badi Hasisi, and David Weisburd. "What Are the Effects of Different Elements of Media on Radicalization Outcomes? A Systematic Review." Campbell Systematic Reviews 18, no. 2 (2022): e1244. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1244 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | The review summarizes evidence from 4 experimental and 49 observational studies and synthesizes the effects of 23 media‐related risk factors across the two outcomes of cognitive and behavioral radicalization. | Meta-analysis conclusion of the overall study |
| Counternarratives that acknowledge, reinterpret and reframe the sacred values | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Divisive/unifying narratives, Ideology | Counternarratives that acknowledge, reinterpret and reframe the sacred values actually bolster people's attachment to sacred values and their willingness to fight for them. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: Atran, Scott. "The Devoted Actor: Unconditional Cooperation and Intractable Conflict Across Cultures." Current Anthropology 57, no. S13 (2016): 192–203. https://doi.org/10.1086/685495 Rappaport, Roy. "The Sacred in Human Evolution." Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 2 (1971): 23–44. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.02.110171.000323 Baron, Jonathan, and Michelle Spranca. "Protected Values." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 70, no. 1 (1997): 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1997.2690 Tetlock, Philip E. "Thinking the Unthinkable: Sacred Values and Taboo Cognitions." Trends in Cognitive Sciences 7, no. 8 (2003): 320–324. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6613(03)00135-9 Ginges, Jeremy, Scott Atran, David Medin, and Khaula Shikaki. "Sacred Bounds on Rational Resolution of Violent Political Conflict." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, no. 2 (2007): 7357–7360. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0701768104 Graham, Jesse, and Jonathan Haidt. "Sacred Values and Evil Adversaries." In The Social Psychology of Morality, edited by Mario Mikulincer and Phillip R. Shaver, 11–31. New York: American Psychological Association, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1037/13091-001 |
| Reading radical publications | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Divisive/unifying narratives, Radicalization, Social influence, Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review looked at individual‐level media effects on two outcomes of radicalization, cognitive and behavioral, with cognitive radicalization being limited to support, justification of, or a willingness/intention toward the use of radical violence in the name of a cause or ideology, and behavioral radicalization pertaining to the actual involvement in such violence. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Badi Hasisi, and David Weisburd. "What Are the Effects of Different Elements of Media on Radicalization Outcomes? A Systematic Review." Campbell Systematic Reviews 18, no. 2 (2022): e1244. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1244 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The review summarizes evidence from 4 experimental and 49 observational studies and synthesizes the effects of 23 media‐related risk factors across the two outcomes of cognitive and behavioral radicalization. | Three articles are cited in support: Patterson, David. "Islamic Jihadism and the Legacy of Nazi Antisemitism." Journal of Antisemitism 7 (2016): 189–202. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009103848.010 Berger, Lior. "Local, National and Global Islam: Religious Guidance and European Muslim Public Opinion on Political Radicalism and Social Conservatism." West European Politics 39, no. 2 (2016): 205–228. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2015.1062252 Mills, Christopher E., James D. Freilich, Sarah M. Chermak, Thomas J. Holt, and Gary LaFree. "Social Learning and Social Control in the Off-and-Online Pathways to Hate Crime and Terrorist Violence." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism (2019): 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2019.1585628 |
| Passive exposure to radical content, such as print media and television, in which a consumer is not required to participate or engage in any specific way | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging, (Technology) Multimedia | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Divisive/unifying narratives, Television/Movies | Unspecified | Unspecified | The meta-analysis of this review study found a statistically significant result with a small effect. Additionally, found a marginally significant effect for year of data collection on passive exposure to radical content, in which more recent studies are associated with larger effects. The author notes that future research should consider how the year of data collection may influence results, and how results may reflect trends in media usage more generally. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review looked at individual‐level media effects on two outcomes of radicalization, cognitive and behavioral, with cognitive radicalization being limited to support, justification of, or a willingness/intention toward the use of radical violence in the name of a cause or ideology, and behavioral radicalization pertaining to the actual involvement in such violence. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Badi Hasisi, and David Weisburd. "What Are the Effects of Different Elements of Media on Radicalization Outcomes? A Systematic Review." Campbell Systematic Reviews 18, no. 2 (2022): e1244. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1244 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | The review summarizes evidence from 4 experimental and 49 observational studies and synthesizes the effects of 23 media‐related risk factors across the two outcomes of cognitive and behavioral radicalization. | Meta-analysis conclusion of the overall study |
| Substance abuse | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Drug abuse/moderation | Various research designs demonstrate the functional role of substance misuse in the radicalisation process. Baron (1997) identified substance abuse as both (a) a management strategy for their earlier traumatic experiences and (b) heavily intertwined with their violent offending and criminal engagement. Ilardi‘s (2013:717) interviews with radicalised Muslims in Canada notes regular problems with drug, alcohol and gambling addictions prior to converting to Islam. “For these men, Islam was seen…as the means by which they could inject meaning into their wayward lives, providing a second chance at life during a time when they were most desperate and despondent”. In other words, the turn to Islam was a response to their life problems / substance abuse. | Unspecified | Closed source analyses demonstrate 22% of ISIS foreign fighters in France addicted to drugs (Oppetit, 2019) and 41.7% of radicalised prisoners previously being regular drug users (Stys et al., 2014). 73% of Simi et al’s (2016) sample self-reported problems with alcohol and/or illegal drugs. Baron (1997) demonstrates 5 of his sample of 14 Canadian skinheads drank alcohol daily, 9 smoked marijuana or hashish daily, and 8 took LSD at least twice a week. There was also regular use of speed and solvents. In the year prior to the interviews, 8 had taken cocaine, 6 amphetamines and 7 heroin. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | The authors conclude, "Case study designs (Aly & Striegher, 2012) and group-level analyses assert a high degree of substance abuse." They cite a number of studies which focus on different substances to make this conclusion. Oppetit, Alice, Nicolas Campelo, Laura Bouzar, Hugues Pellerin, Serge Hefez, Guillaume Bronsard, Dounia Bouzar, and David Cohen. “Do Radicalized Minors Have Different Social and Psychological Profiles From Radicalized Adults?” Frontiers in psychiatry 10 (2019): 644–644. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00644 Simi, Pete, Karyn Sporer, and Bryan F Bubolz. “Narratives of Childhood Adversity and Adolescent Misconduct as Precursors to Violent Extremism: A Life-Course Criminological Approach.” The journal of research in crime and delinquency 53, no. 4 (2016): 536–563. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427815627312 |
| Problematic substance use (e.g. problems with alcohol and drugs) | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Drug abuse/moderation | Unspecified | Unspecified | The “mixed” data within the present review suggest indications of a contributing role of psychopathology in terrorist or violent extremist behaviors. More specifically, other problematic substance use were found to be of influence in the actual proceeding to, or the executing of, such behaviors. This is in addition to other psychopathology factors that have a contributing role in terrorist or violent extremist behavior including mental health problems, cluster B personality traits and problematic substance use. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | Overall review |
| Substance abuse before radicalization | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Drug abuse/moderation | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Substance abuse during radicalization | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Drug abuse/moderation | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Being employed | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Adults | No differentiation | USA | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article analyzes how radicalization may lead to violent behavioral outcomes, which the authors define as "violent extremist behavior against persons and property" | Lösel, Friedrich, Sonja King, Doris Bender, and Irina Jugl. "Protective Factors Against Extremism and Violent Radicalization: A Systematic Review of Research." International Journal of Developmental Science 12, no. 1-2 (2018): 89-102. https://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-170241 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | 17 reports containing 21 analyses that specifically addressed potential protective effects and provided quantitative data. 11 analyses addressed protective factors against religious/ethnic extremism. Five analyses investigated protective factors against far-right extremism, two far-left, one nationalist/separatist, and two mixed orientation. | One study was analyzed and the author's reported the effect as a main finding: Employed persons are less prone to all types of extremism. Jensen, Michael, Gary LaFree, Patrick A. James, Anita Atwell-Seate, Daniela Pisoiu, John Stevenson, and John Picarelli. "Final Report: Empirical Assessment of Domestic Radicalization (EADR)." Report to the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice, 2016 |
| Being unemployed | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites one article as lacking support for this risk factor; Krueger, Alan B. "What Makes a Homegrown Terrorist? Human Capital and Participation in Domestic Islamic Terrorist Groups in the USA." Economics Letters 101, no. 3 (2008): 293–296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2008.09.008 |
| Being unemployed | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Altunbas; UK Ljujic; Netherlands | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Two studies found unemployment to be more prevalent among violent radicals than compared to general population Altunbas, Yener, and John Thornton. "Are Homegrown Islamic Terrorists Different? Some UK Evidence." Southern Economic Journal 78, no. 2 (2011): 262–272. https://doi.org/10.4284/0038-4038-78.2.262 Ljujic, Valentina, Iris Versteegt, Frank Weerman, Frank Thijs, J. W. van Prooijen, F. el Bouk, and S. van de Weijer. "Testing a Threat Model of Terrorism: A Multi-Method Study About Socio-Economic and Psychological Influences on Terrorism Involvement in the Netherlands." In Understanding Recruitment to Organized Crime and Terrorism, edited by David Weisburd, Ernesto U. Savona, Boaz Hasisi, and Francesco Calderoni, 147–171. Cham: Springer, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36639-1_7 |
| Being unemployed | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment | Unspecified | Unspecified | In a study comparing Palestinian terrorists with the general population, it was found that 90% of terrorists were in full-time employment, compared to only 60% of the general population | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Palestine | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites one article as not showing support for this risk factor; Berrebi, Claude. "Evidence About the Link Between Education, Poverty and Terrorism Among Palestinians." Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 13, no. 1 (2007): 18–53. https://doi.org/10.2202/1554-8597.1101 |
| Lack of gainful employment | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Activity | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a small effect size for this risk factor. With regard to radical behaviors, the estimate for unemployment was significantly larger for Europe‐based samples. |
| Unemployment | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Across 15 studies found in the author's initial search, unemployment rates averaged 19.79% (n=2753 participants). | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | In a comparative study of 77 U.K. jihadists and a representative sample of 1363 U.K. Muslims, Altunbas & Thornton (2011) found the former significantly more likely unemployed despite having significantly more education (measured in years). Additionally, these issues obviously have other important impacts. Weenink (2019) found 9% of his foreign fighter sample had been homeless for a period of time. This is approximately eight to ten times more likely than a matched general population sample. Similarly, Baron (1997) classified each of his 14 Canadian skinhead participants as chronically or long-term homeless. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | Economic pressures of unemployment are mentioned as a key driver into violent extremist scenes as diverse as U.S neo-Nazi’s (Ezekiel, 1995, 2002; Baron, 1997) and al-Shabaab (Botha, 2014) - over 15 studies are mentioned in support of this effect. For one example; In a comparative study of 77 U.K. jihadists and a representative sample of 1363 U.K. Muslims, Altunbas & Thornton (2011) found the former significantly more likely unemployed despite having significantly more education (measured in years). Altunbas, Yener, and John Thornton. “Are Homegrown Islamic Terrorists Different? Some UK Evidence.” Southern economic journal 78, no. 2 (2011): 262–272. https://doi.org/10.4284/0038-4038-78.2.262 |
| Being employed before the radicalization process | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment | The criminological theory of “social control” postulates that individuals with pro-social ties to society, such as those gained through employment, educational commitments, or being in a relationship, are less likely to engage in criminal or delinquent behavior. | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy found that being employed before radicalization onset was not significantly associated with involvement in terrorist violence. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article provides support for this protective factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Being employed during the radicalization process | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment | The criminological theory of “social control” postulates that individuals with pro-social ties to society, such as those gained through employment, educational commitments, or being in a relationship, are less likely to engage in criminal or delinquent behavior. | Unspecified | Shuurman and Carthy found that being employed at the time of radicalization was positively associated with not committing terrorist acts of violence. In other words, for those who were employed during radicalization, their convictions were less likely to manifest in an actual terrorist attack. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article provides support for this protective factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Employed or in school prior to radicalization | Dynamic protective factor | (Economic) Situation, (Psychosocial) Education | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment, In school/drop-out | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Community | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Parental unemployment or poverty | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment, Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Employment status measured as father and/or mother currently unemployed. Poverty measured as whether father and/or mother are recipients of social assistance. Both self-reported. | This study did not show a significant relationship between parental unemployment and violent extremist behavior amongst 9th graders. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Children | No differentiation | Germany | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article is referenced, which does not find a significant relationship. Baier, Dirk, Patrik Manzoni, and Marie Christine Bergmann. "Einflussfaktoren des politischen Extremismus im Jugendalter—Rechtsextremismus, Linksextremismus und islamischer Extremismus im Vergleich." Monatsschrift für Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform 99, no. 3 (2016): 171–198. http://doi.org/10.1515/mks-2016-990529 |
| Larger family size | Static protective factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Family size | Unspecified | Unspecified | These two articles showed a significant effect when analyzed together to measure the effect of family size on violent extremist behavior. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Adults | No differentiation | Clemmow: Lone‐actor terrorists who planned their attacks in the US, UK, Europe, or Australia. Dhumad: Iraq | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | Analysis of two articles measuring family size: Clemmow, Caitlin, Sandy Schumann, Nadine L. Salman, and Paul Gill. "The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism." Journal of Forensic Sciences 65, no. 3 (2020): 865–881.http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.14282 Dhumad, Saleh, Philip J. Candilis, Sean D. Cleary, Allen R. Dyer, and Najat Khalifa. "Risk Factors for Terrorism: A Comparison of Family, Childhood, and Personality Risk Factors Among Iraqi Terrorists, Murderers, and Controls." Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression 12, no. 1 (2020): 72–88. http://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2019.1687550 |
| Having a higher number of children | Static risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Family size | Unspecified | Unspecified | This study did not show a significant effect between having a higher number of children and violent extremist behavior. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Adults | No differentiation | Iraq | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article is referenced, which did not find a significant effect: Dhumad, Saleh, Philip J. Candilis, Sean D. Cleary, Allen R. Dyer, and Najat Khalifa. "Risk Factors for Terrorism: A Comparison of Family, Childhood, and Personality Risk Factors Among Iraqi Terrorists, Murderers, and Controls." Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression 12, no. 1 (2020): 72–88. https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2019.1591481 |
| Higher family size | Static protective factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Family size | Unspecified | Unspecified | This study did show a significant effect between higher family size and a reduced likelihood of violent extremist behavior. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Adults | No differentiation | Iraq | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article is referenced, which did find a significant effect: Dhumad, Saleh, Philip J. Candilis, Sean D. Cleary, Allen R. Dyer, and Najat Khalifa. "Risk Factors for Terrorism: A Comparison of Family, Childhood, and Personality Risk Factors Among Iraqi Terrorists, Murderers, and Controls." Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression 12, no. 1 (2020): 72–88. https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2019.1591481 |
| Number of siblings | Static risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Family size | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Countries with higher polygyny rates | Static risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Family size | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited in support: Gibson, Kyle. “The Roles of Operational Sex Ratio and Young-Old Ratio in Producing Suicide Attackers.” ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2011. |
| Having feelings of unjust treatment, individually or as a group | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling of (in)justice | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual, Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a small effect size for this risk factor |
| Experiencing perceived injustice | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling of (in)justice | Unspecified | Unspecified | The study says that "based on the “mixed” results, other psychological mechanisms were found to be at work in terrorist or violent extremist behaviors" including experiencing perceived injustice. This is in addition to other psychopathology factors that have a contributing role in terrorist or violent extremist behavior including mental health problems, cluster B personality traits and problematic substance use. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | Overall review |
| Feeling of humiliation and injustice | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling of (in)justice | Unspecified | Unspecified | Suicide terrorists are almost always animated by feelings of humiliation and injustice. These feelings are instrumental in actually carrying out a terrorist attack. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The study defines suicide terrorism as “the targeted use of self-destructive men against a population of non-combatants (typically civilians), in order to effect political change” (Atran, 2003). The study uses the phrase "suicide terrorist” to refer to kamikased or human bombs (suicide terrorists); a voluntarist who gives his or her life to achieve a political objective (Barzin, 2010). Suicide terrorism is the only form of combat in which the attacker contemplates extreme actions in which he does not expect to survive the mission (Pape, 2005), and in which the chances of returning surviving are “close to zero” (Pedahzur, 2006). | Fekih-Romdhane, Feten, Leila Chennoufi, and Mejda Cheour. “Les terroristes suicidaires : qui sont-ils ?” Annales médico psychologiques 174, no. 4 (2016): 274–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2015.10.026 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | This study is a literature review surveying 41 academic and grey literature sources which analyse various aspects of suicide terrorism. | 4 articles provide support for this risk factor: Atran, Scott. “Genesis of Suicide Terrorism.” Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 299, no. 5612 (2003): 1534–1539. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1078854 Stern, Jessica. Terror in the Name of God : Why Religious Militants Kill. 1st ed. New York: Ecco, 2003. Barzin, Nader. “Les nouveaux martyrs : l’agonie de l’identité.” Topique 113, no. 4 (2010): 161–186. https://doi.org/10.3917/top.113.0161 Bhugra, Dinesh. “Commentary: Religion, Religious Attitudes and Suicide.” International journal of epidemiology 39, no. 6 (2010): 1496–1498. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyq232 |
| Framing some unsatisfying event, condition or grievance as being unjust and not fair leading to unfairness perceptions paired with externally oriented emotions such as anger, resentment, and hate. | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice, (Psychosocial) Emotions | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling of (in)justice, Anger/resentment | Radicalization into terrorism indeed often begins when people interpret or frame some unsatisfying event, condition, or grievance as being unjust and not fair. The injustice is blamed on a target policy, person, or nation, and the responsible party is then denigrated and often demonized, which provides a justification or impetus for aggression. Unfairness perceptions with externally oriented emotions such as anger, resentment, and hate increases the likelihood of violent intentions and actual behaviors associated with radicalization | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Anger, resentment, hate | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The author of this review article defines terrorism as the engagement of individuals or groups in ideologically motivated violence or other destructive acts against persons, property, or the fabric of society. They cite this definition from the Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service. Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service "Animal Rights Extremism in the Netherlands: Fragmented but Growing." The Hague: Neth. Gen. Intell. Secur. Serv. (2009). | Van den Bos, Kees. "Unfairness and Radicalization." Annual Review of Psychology 71 (2020): 563–588. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050953 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Van den Bos, 2018 serves as an organizational framework for this article, the author doesn't specify what articles were used for the research. | Four articles provide support for this risk factor: Kepel, Gilles, and Brice Rougier. "Addressing Terrorism: European Research in Social Sciences and the Humanities in Support to Policies for Inclusion and Security—A Policy Review." Report, European Commission, Brussels, Belgium, 2016. Borum, Randy. "Radicalization and Involvement in Violent Extremism I: A Review of Definitions and Applications of Social Science Theories." Journal of Strategic Security 4 (2011): 7–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.4.4.1 Borum, Randy. "Radicalization and Involvement in Violent Extremism II: A Review of Conceptual Models and Empirical Research." Journal of Strategic Security 4 (2011): 37–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.4.4.2 Wilner, Alex, and C. J. Dubouloz. "Transformative Radicalization: Applying Learning Theory to Islamist Radicalization." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 34 (2011): 418–38. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2011.561472 |
| Distrust or paranoid feelings | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling victimized/empowered | Unspecified | Unspecified | The article finds that "distrust or paranoid feelings were present in 15 Jihadist offenders (20%)." This prevalence is from a sample of 118 Jihadist offenders, of which 5 are women and 113 are men, all 22 or older. This prevalence rate refers to the sample used in the studies which only considers perpetrators of terrorism or violent extremism and does not compare with the general population. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | The article mentions one study: Nils Duits, Daphne Alberda, and Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology of young terrorist offenders, and the interaction with ideology and grievances." Frontiers in Psychiatry. 13:801751 (2022). doi: 10.3389/fpsyt.2022.801751 |
| Personal or group grievance, such as personal victimization, group injustices, and perceived threats to identity or community | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling victimized/empowered, Group identity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual, Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | The review mentions three articles as support for several risk or protective factors; Leuprecht, Christian, Todd Hataley, Sophia Moskalenko, and Clark McCauley. "Containing the Narrative: Strategy and Tactics in Countering the Storyline of Global Jihad." Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism 5, no. 1 (2010): 42–57. https://doi.org/10.1080/18335300.2010.9686940 McCauley, Clark, and Sophia Moskalenko. "Mechanisms of Political Radicalization: Pathways Toward Terrorism." Terrorism and Political Violence 20, no. 3 (2008): 415–433. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546550802073367 Moskalenko, Sophia, y Clark McCauley. Radicalization to Terrorism: What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford University Press, 2020. |
| Having individual strain and stressors, such as worries about money | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial (in)security | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Sociodemographic factors can operate as second-order factors that cause individual level strain or stressors. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | One article is cited in support: Agnew, Robert. "A General Strain Theory of Terrorism." Theoretical Criminology 14, no. 2 (2010): 131–153. https://doi.org/10.1177/1362480609350163 |
| Revenge for attacks on loved ones | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Forgiveness/revenge | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The author of this review article defines terrorism as the engagement of individuals or groups in ideologically motivated violence or other destructive acts against persons, property, or the fabric of society. They cite this definition from the Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service. Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service "Animal Rights Extremism in the Netherlands: Fragmented but Growing." The Hague: Neth. Gen. Intell. Secur. Serv. (2009). | Van den Bos, Kees. "Unfairness and Radicalization." Annual Review of Psychology 71 (2020): 563–588. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050953 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Van den Bos, 2018 serves as an organizational framework for this article, the author doesn't specify what articles were used for the research. | One article and one book chapter provide support for this risk factor. Suicide terrorists often note revenge for attacks on their loved ones as a motive for self-sacrifice. McCauley, Carolyn, and Sophia Moskalenko. "Mechanisms of Political Radicalization: Pathways Toward Terrorism." Terrorism and Political Violence 20 (2008): 415–33. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546550802073367 McCauley, Carolyn, and Melvin E. Segal. "Social Psychology of Terrorist Groups." In Psychology of Terrorism: Classic and Contemporary Insights, edited by John Victoroff and Arie W. Kruglanski, 331–46. New York: Psychology Press, 2009. |
| Fusion of personal identity with the collective identity of a primary reference group | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Group identity | As fused groups are made up of individuals willing to self-sacrifice for others, fused-groups bolster suicide terrorism. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: Swann, William B., Ángel Gómez, Carmen Huici, José Francisco Morales, and Gregory Hixon. "Identity Fusion and Self-Sacrifice." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 99, no. 5 (2010): 824–841. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0020014 Swann, William B., Jolanda Jetten, Ángel Gómez, Harvey Whitehouse, and Brock Bastian. "When Group Membership Gets Personal: A Theory of Identity Fusion." Psychological Review 119, no. 3 (2012): 441–456. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0028589 Whitehouse, Harvey, Brock McQuinn, Michael D. Buhrmester, and William B. Swann. "Brothers in Arms: Libyan Revolutionaries Bond Like Family." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, no. 46 (2014): 17783–17785. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1416284111 Gómez, Ángel, José Chinchilla, Ángel Vázquez, Luis López-Rodríguez, Sergio Paredes, and Manuel Martínez. "Recent Advances, Misconceptions, Untested Assumptions, and Future Research for Identity Fusion Theory." Social and Personality Psychology Compass 14, no. 6 (2020): e12531. https://doi.org/10.1111/spc3.12531 Sageman, Marc. Leaderless Jihad. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2008. Whitehouse, Harvey. "Dying for the Group: Towards a General Theory of Extreme Self-Sacrifice." Behavioral and Brain Sciences 41 (2018): E192. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X18000249 Atran, Scott. Talking to the Enemy: Violent Extremism, Sacred Values, and What It Means to Be Human. London: Penguin, 2010. |
| Group based grievances, such as from a perception of collective suffering | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Group identity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Studies of U.S. based violent and nonviolent radical offenders | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites two articles as support for this risk factor; Grace, Emily. "Lex Talionis in the Twenty-First Century: Revenge Ideation and Terrorism." Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression 10, no. 3 (2018): 249–263. https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2018.1428660 Jensen, Michael A., Anita Atwell Seate, and Patrick A. James. "Radicalization to Violence: A Pathway Approach to Studying Extremism." Terrorism and Political Violence 32, no. 5 (2020): 1067–1090. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2018.1442330 |
| Group effect in diaspora communities (individual identity merges with group identity) | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Group identity | Being part of a group is a very important motivator for diaspora communities. Once within the group, individual identity merges with group identity, and individuals sacrifice their lives for the group's benefit. | Unspecified | This powerful group process, which exists in other groups aside from terrorist groups, is not sufficient to explain the desire to carry out a suicide attack. This is because an individual can engage in terrorism by fulfilling roles other than suicide terrorism. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The study defines suicide terrorism as “the targeted use of self-destructive men against a population of non-combatants (typically civilians), in order to effect political change” (Atran, 2003). The study uses the phrase "suicide terrorist” to refer to kamikased or human bombs (suicide terrorists); a voluntarist who gives his or her life to achieve a political objective (Barzin, 2010). Suicide terrorism is the only form of combat in which the attacker contemplates extreme actions in which he does not expect to survive the mission (Pape, 2005), and in which the chances of returning surviving are “close to zero” (Pedahzur, 2006). | Fekih-Romdhane, Feten, Leila Chennoufi, and Mejda Cheour. “Les terroristes suicidaires : qui sont-ils ?” Annales médico psychologiques 174, no. 4 (2016): 274–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2015.10.026 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | This study is a literature review surveying 41 academic and grey literature sources which analyse various aspects of suicide terrorism. | Although certain studies ackowledge how group effect and suicide terrorism can be intertwined, there is no evidence that they are correlated: Sageman, Marc. Le Vrai Visage des Terroristes: Psychologie et sociologie des acteurs du djihad. DENOEL. 2005 ISBN 10: 2207256839 Atran, Scott. "Mishandling Suicide Terrorism." The Washington Quarterly 27, no. 3 (2004): 67-90. https://doi.org/10.1162/016366004323090269 Palmer, Ian. “Terrorism, Suicide Bombing, Fear and Mental Health.” International review of psychiatry 19, no. 3 (2007): 289–296. https://doi.org/10.1080/09540260701349506 |
| Identity fusion is exacerbated by sharing painful experiences of marginalization or direct violence | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State, (Security) Violence, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Group identity, Exclusion/inclusion, (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Sharing painful experiences of marginalization favors identity fusion, which motivates self-sacrifice, including willingness to fight for the group. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: Whitehouse, Harvey. "Dying for the Group: Towards a General Theory of Extreme Self-Sacrifice." Behavioral and Brain Sciences 41 (2018): E192. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X18000249 |
| Perceived in-group threat | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging, (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Group identity, Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Because radicalization often involves a process resulting in the perception that violence is a necessary instrument to advance or safeguard cherished values or political ambitions - it is often necessary for their first to be a perceived in-group threat. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Stankov L, Knezˇević G, Saucier G, Radović B, Milovanović B. Militant extremist mindset and the assessment of radicalization in the general population. J Individ Differ. 2018; 39: 88–98. https://doi.org/10.1027/1614-0001/a000253 |
| Psychological distance between the ingroup and the outgroups | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Group identity, Polarization | Psychological distance between the two types of groups (social categorization and the exaggeration of the differences between the ingroup and the outgroups increasing the psychological distance between the two types of groups) is needed to sidestep inhibitory mechanisms that can prevent the actual engaging in terrorist acts. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The author of this review article defines terrorism as the engagement of individuals or groups in ideologically motivated violence or other destructive acts against persons, property, or the fabric of society. They cite this definition from the Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service. Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service "Animal Rights Extremism in the Netherlands: Fragmented but Growing." The Hague: Neth. Gen. Intell. Secur. Serv. (2009). | Van den Bos, Kees. "Unfairness and Radicalization." Annual Review of Psychology 71 (2020): 563–588. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050953 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Van den Bos, 2018 serves as an organizational framework for this article, the author doesn't specify what articles were used for the research. | One article provide support for this risk factor: Moghaddam, Fathali M. "The Staircase to Terrorism: A Psychological Exploration." American Psychologist 60 (2005): 161–69. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.60.2.161 |
| Negative horizontal inequality (i.e. one group is significantly worse off than the rest of society) | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Horizontal (in)equality | Over time, this systematic discrimination is likely to lead to greater economic disparities between privileged and other groups. Another way to think about it is that the existence of institutionalized discrimination results in the creation of reinforcing cleavages. Reinforcing cleavages exist, for example, when the members of one ethnic group have significantly fewer resources and political power than members in another ethnic group. In a system like that, systems of oppression, domination or discrimination reinforce one another. The victims of systematic oppression are likely to blame their government for the discrimination against them, and, under some circumstances, this dissatisfaction among the members of the out groups will lead to rebellion (Cederman et al. 2013). | GDP per capita divided by the mean GDP per capita of the poorest group in society. | A regression analysis showed a significant effect on the risk of terrorism. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Positive horizontal inequality (i.e an elite or rich class with more resources than everyone else) | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Horizontal (in)equality | Over time, this systematic discrimination is likely to lead to greater economic disparities between privileged and other groups. Another way to think about it is that the existence of institutionalized discrimination results in the creation of reinforcing cleavages. Reinforcing cleavages exist, for example, when the members of one ethnic group have significantly fewer resources and political power than members in another ethnic group. In a system like that, systems of oppression, domination or discrimination reinforce one another. The victims of systematic oppression are likely to blame their government for the discrimination against them, and, under some circumstances, this dissatisfaction among the members of the out groups will lead to rebellion (Cederman et al. 2013). | The mean GDP per capita of the richest group divided by the country GDP per capita. | A regression analysis showed no significant effect on the risk of terrorism. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Inequality (i.e., a large group of people being discriminated against in society) | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Horizontal (in)equality | The victims of systematic oppression are likely to blame their government for the discrimination against them, and, under some circumstances, this dissatisfaction among the members of the out groups will lead to rebellion (Cederman et al. 2013). | The percentage of a country’s population that is made up of the largest discriminated group. | A regression analysis showed a significant effect on the risk of terrorism. When a country has a discriminated group that makes up 30% of the population or more, it is almost certain to experience a terror attack. The probability of avoiding a terror attack is almost zero and the author notes their model is very confident in these predictions. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Government "disappearances" of citizens | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | (Bell et al. 2013) These coercive techniques may create more citizen dissatisfaction (grievance) than other types of violations of physical integrity rights, because citizens perceive political imprisonment and disappearances as the direct result of the deliberate policy choices of politicians. The authors of the article also add that the use of extrajudicial killing and disappearance would be most closely related to subsequent political violence by citizens if extreme forms of coercion generate the most intense grievances against the government. | State of physical integrity rights in a country (torture, disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and political imprisonment), which are captured by two different measures: the Political Terror Scale, an ordinal scale ranging from 0 to 5, and the Physical Integrity Index, an ordinal scale with ranges from 0 to 8, from the CIRI Human Rights Data Project and updated by the CIRIGHTS Data Project using the CIRI methodology. | A regression analysis showed a significant effect on the risk of terrorism. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 The authors' explanation for this finding was supported by one article: Bell, Sam R., David Cingranelli, Amanda Murdie, and Alper Caglayan. "Coercion, capacity, and coordination: Predictors of political violence." Conflict Management and Peace Science 30, no. 3 (2013): 240-262. https://doi.org/10.1177/073889421348403 |
| Governments refraining from engaging in "disappearances" of citizens | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Bell et al. (2013) argue that these coercive techniques may create more citizen dissatisfaction (grievance) than other types of violations of physical integrity rights, because citizens perceive political imprisonment and disappearances as the direct result of the deliberate policy choices of politicians. Therefore, governments refraining from engaging in "disappearances" would have lower risk of conflict. | State of physical integrity rights in a country (torture, disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and political imprisonment), which are captured by two different measures: the Political Terror Scale, an ordinal scale ranging from 0 to 5, and the Physical Integrity Index, an ordinal scale with ranges from 0 to 8, from the CIRI Human Rights Data Project and updated by the CIRIGHTS Data Project using the CIRI methodology. | When governments refrain from engaging in disappearances they are less likely to experience terrorist attacks. They are also likely to experience fewer terrorist attacks when they do occur. | Onset | Country | The authors of this article also add that the use of disappearances would explain subsequent political violence by citizens, or refraining from disappearances explaining subsequently less violence, if extreme forms of coercion generate the most intense grievances against the government. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| A country having high respect for physical integrity rights | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | The authors cite, Goodwin (2001), which concludes that state repression creates the belief among the population that there is “no other way out” besides armed revolt against an unjust and abusive regime. | Respect for physical integrity rights in a country, as measured by the Physical Integrity Index, an ordinal scale with ranges from 0 to 8, from the CIRI Human Rights Data Project and updated by the CIRIGHTS Data Project using the CIRI methodology. | Countries with high levels of respect for physical integrity rights experience 79% fewer terrorist attacks. This difference is statistically significant. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 The authors' explanation for this finding was supported by one article: Bell, Sam R., David Cingranelli, Amanda Murdie, and Alper Caglayan. "Coercion, capacity, and coordination: Predictors of political violence." Conflict Management and Peace Science 30, no. 3 (2013): 240-262. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894213484032 |
| Extrajudicial killings | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | The authors of the article argue that the use of extrajudicial killing and disappearance would be most closely related to subsequent political violence by citizens if we assume that extreme forms of coercion generate the most intense grievances against the government | State of physical integrity rights in a country (torture, disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and political imprisonment), which are captured by two different measures: the Political Terror Scale, an ordinal scale ranging from 0 to 5, and the Physical Integrity Index, an ordinal scale with ranges from 0 to 8, from the CIRI Human Rights Data Project and updated by the CIRIGHTS Data Project using the CIRI methodology. | A regression analysis showed no significant effect on the risk of terrorism. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Political imprisonment | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | The authors argue that if the desire for political violence is stimulated the most when governments use the most visible forms of physical integrity violations, then we would expect to find that political imprisonment would be most closely related to subsequent political violence by citizens | State of physical integrity rights in a country (torture, disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and political imprisonment), which are captured by two different measures: the Political Terror Scale, an ordinal scale ranging from 0 to 5, and the Physical Integrity Index, an ordinal scale with ranges from 0 to 8, from the CIRI Human Rights Data Project and updated by the CIRIGHTS Data Project using the CIRI methodology. | A regression analysis showed a significant effect on the risk of terrorism. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| The government torturing people | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | State of physical integrity rights in a country (torture, disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and political imprisonment), which are captured by two different measures: the Political Terror Scale, an ordinal scale ranging from 0 to 5, and the Physical Integrity Index, an ordinal scale with ranges from 0 to 8, from the CIRI Human Rights Data Project and updated by the CIRIGHTS Data Project using the CIRI methodology. | A regression analysis showed a significant effect on the risk of terrorism. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Respect for women’s rights | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Human rights violations/respect | There are a number of arguments about why repression of women’s rights leads to greater violence against the state. Most of them rest on some variation of grievance theory. For example, Murdie and Peksen (2015, p. 182) argue that when a government does not respect women’s economic or political rights, it is likely that the capabilities of a woman in that nation greatly differ from her expectations, either with a reference category of the male counterparts in the country or with a reference category of what women outside of her country are receiving. Thus, she is more likely to have grievances consistent with relative deprivation theory (Gurr 1968). Caprioli (2005) agrees with this argument. However, she goes further by contending that greater political and economic discrimination by males against females in a society is an indication of a greater willingness by the state to use domination against most, if not all, subordinate groups. From this perspective, low respect for women’s rights is a proxy for low respect for minority rights of all kinds. | Respect for women's rights in a country, measured through an additive scale of women’s economic and women’s political rights from the CIRI and CIRIGHTS Human Rights Data Projects. | Respect for women’s rights reduces the number of predicted terrorist attacks from around 17 attacks a year at no respect for women’s rights to about two attacks a year at the highest levels of respect for women’s rights. However, as respect for women’s rights increases, a country is less likely to avoid a terrorist attack. The probability of avoiding a terror attack falls from about 47% with no respect for women’s rights to about 29% with full respect of women’s rights. So, respect for women’s rights increases the likelihood of seeing at least one attack, but reduces the number of terrorist attacks a country is likely to see. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Inconclusive statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Freedom of association and assembly | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | Levels of freedom of association and assembly in a country, a civil and political rights measurement taken from the CIRI and CIRIGHTS database and coded as ordinal measures ranging from 0 (widespread violations) to 2 (no violations). | No significant effect was found on risk of terrorism. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Freedom of foreign movement | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | The ability to move across international borders may reduce the organizational and logistic costs of terror operations | Freedom of foreign movement in a country, a civil and political rights measurement taken from the CIRI and CIRIGHTS database and coded as ordinal measures ranging from 0 (widespread violations) to 2 (no violations). | A regression analysis showed a significant effect on the risk of terrorism. | Onset | Country, Transnational | Findings suggest that societies that have respect for citizens’ rights to freedom of speech and press and allow freedom for citizens to leave their country and to return face greater risks of suffering terrorism, other things equal. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Freedom of domestic movement | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Freedom of domestic movement allows dissatisfied individuals to travel to meet with one another. | Freedom of domestic movement in a country, a civil and political rights measurement taken from the CIRI and CIRIGHTS database and coded as ordinal measures ranging from 0 (widespread violations) to 2 (no violations). | No significant effect on the risk of terrorism. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Freedom of speech and press | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Respect for freedom of speech and press allows citizens to express and to aggregate their grievances. | Freedom of speech and press in a country, a civil and political rights measurement taken from the CIRI and CIRIGHTS database and coded as ordinal measures ranging from 0 (widespread violations) to 2 (no violations). | Free speech is associated with a rise in the number of terror attacks. | Onset | Country | Findings suggest that societies that have respect for citizens’ rights to freedom of speech and press and allow freedom for citizens to leave their country and to return face greater risks of suffering terrorism, other things equal. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| State actors engaging in violent coercion and physical repression against the population | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Literature review of an individual study examining the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | The literature review refers to two articles to support this risk factor: Bakker, Ryan, Daniel W Hill, and Will H Moore. “How Much Terror? Dissidents, Governments,Institutions, and the Cross-National Study of Terror Attacks.” Journal of Peace Research 53, no. 5 (2016): 711–726. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316655020 Piazza, James A. “Repression and Terrorism: A Cross-National Empirical Analysis of Types of Repression and Domestic Terrorism.” Terrorism and Political Violence 29, no. 1 (2017): 102–118. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2014.994061 |
| State actors refraining from engaging in violent coercion and physical repression against the population | Dynamic protective factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Literature review of an individual study examining the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | The literature review refers to one article to support this protective factor: Walsh, James I., and James A. Piazza. "Why respecting physical integrity rights reduces terrorism." Comparative Political Studies 43, no. 5 (2010): 551-577. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414009356176 |
| Political imprisonment and disappearing of prisoners | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Literature review of an individual study examining the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | The literature review refers to one article to support this risk factor: Walsh, James I., and James A. Piazza. "Why respecting physical integrity rights reduces terrorism." Comparative Political Studies 43, no. 5 (2010): 551-577. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414009356176 |
| Occurrence of extrajudicial killings | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Literature review of an individual study examining the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | The literature review refers to one article to support this risk factor: Walsh, James I., and James A. Piazza. "Why respecting physical integrity rights reduces terrorism." Comparative Political Studies 43, no. 5 (2010): 551-577. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414009356176 |
| Intensively practicing a religion | Static protective factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Adults | No differentiation | Indonesia | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article analyzes how radicalization may lead to violent behavioral outcomes, which the authors define as "violent extremist behavior against persons and property" | Lösel, Friedrich, Sonja King, Doris Bender, and Irina Jugl. "Protective Factors Against Extremism and Violent Radicalization: A Systematic Review of Research." International Journal of Developmental Science 12, no. 1-2 (2018): 89-102. https://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-170241 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | 17 reports containing 21 analyses that specifically addressed potential protective effects and provided quantitative data. 11 analyses addressed protective factors against religious/ethnic extremism. Five analyses investigated protective factors against far-right extremism, two far-left, one nationalist/separatist, and two mixed orientation. | One study was analyzed and the author's reported the effect as a main finding: Intensive religious practice was a protective factor against committing extremist violence in Indonesia. Muluk, Hamdi, Nathanael G. Sumaktoyo, and Dhyah Madya Ruth. "Jihad as Justification: National Survey Evidence of Belief in Violent Jihad as a Mediating Factor for Sacred Violence Among Muslims in Indonesia." Asian Journal of Social Psychology 16, no. 2 (2013): 101–111. http://doi.org/10.1111/ajsp.12002 |
| Sacred values | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | People most likely engage in costly sacrifices or extreme actions to protect or advance nonnegotiable values, whether religious or secular (e.g. nationalism, democracy). Devoted actors are particularly likely to make costly and extreme sacrifices in defense of sacred values. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: Atran, Scott. "The Devoted Actor: Unconditional Cooperation and Intractable Conflict Across Cultures." Current Anthropology 57, no. S13 (2016): 192–203. https://doi.org/10.1086/685495 Rappaport, Roy. "The Sacred in Human Evolution." Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 2 (1971): 23–44. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.02.110171.000323 Baron, Jonathan, and Michelle Spranca. "Protected Values." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 70, no. 1 (1997): 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1997.2690 Tetlock, Philip E. "Thinking the Unthinkable: Sacred Values and Taboo Cognitions." Trends in Cognitive Sciences 7, no. 8 (2003): 320–324. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6613(03)00135-9 Ginges, Jeremy, Scott Atran, David Medin, and Khaula Shikaki. "Sacred Bounds on Rational Resolution of Violent Political Conflict." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, no. 2 (2007): 7357–7360. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0701768104 Graham, Jesse, and Jonathan Haidt. "Sacred Values and Evil Adversaries." In The Social Psychology of Morality, edited by Mario Mikulincer and Phillip R. Shaver, 11–31. New York: American Psychological Association, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1037/13091-001 |
| A personal moral obligation to carry out actions in defence of their cause | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | One article is cited in support: Leuprecht, Christian, Todd Hataley, Sophia Moskalenko, and Clark McCauley. "Containing the Narrative: Strategy and Tactics in Countering the Storyline of Global Jihad." Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism 5, no. 1 (2010): 42–57. https://doi.org/10.1080/18335300.2010.9686940 |
| Converted religions | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a very small effect size for this risk factor |
| Converting before radicalization | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Converting during radicalization | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Being muslim state (as a risk to be targeted by an attack) | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited, which does find support for this factor Wade, Sara Jackson, and Dan Reiter. “Does Democracy Matter? Regime Type and Suicide Terrorism.” The Journal of conflict resolution 51, no. 2 (2007): 329–348. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002706298137 |
| Countries with higher percentages of Muslims (but the attacker is not necessarily muslim) | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited in support, though the author notes "While populations with higher proportions of Muslims are more likely to produce suicide attackers, not all of attackers are Muslim, and not all countries with Muslim majorities churn them out. " Gibson, Kyle. “The Roles of Operational Sex Ratio and Young-Old Ratio in Producing Suicide Attackers.” ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2011. |
| Sacred values' importance increased by marginalization | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Marginalization increases the importance of sacred values and makes them more worth fighting and dying for, meaning that if marginalized, people's commitment to their sacred values increase. This enhances mutual reliance within the group but exacerbates distrust and hostility toward other groups | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: Rappaport, Roy. "The Sacred in Human Evolution." Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 2 (1971): 23–44. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.02.110171.000323 Baron, Jonathan, and Michelle Spranca. "Protected Values." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 70, no. 1 (1997): 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1997.2690 Tetlock, Philip E. "Thinking the Unthinkable: Sacred Values and Taboo Cognitions." Trends in Cognitive Sciences 7, no. 8 (2003): 320–324. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6613(03)00135-9 Ginges, Jeremy, Scott Atran, David Medin, and Khaula Shikaki. "Sacred Bounds on Rational Resolution of Violent Political Conflict." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, no. 2 (2007): 7357–7360. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0701768104 Graham, Jesse, and Jonathan Haidt. "Sacred Values and Evil Adversaries." In The Social Psychology of Morality, edited by Mario Mikulincer and Phillip R. Shaver, 11–31. New York: American Psychological Association, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1037/13091-001 |
| Conflicting values with Western democracies | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Regime, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Democracy | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites two articles as support for this risk factor; Pauwels, Lieven, and Maarten De Waele. "Youth Involvement in Politically Motivated Violence: Why Do Social Integration, Perceived Legitimacy, and Perceived Discrimination Matter?" International Journal of Conflict and Violence 8, no. 1 (2014): 134–153. https://doi.org/10.4119/ijcv-3050 Pauwels, Lieven, and Nele Schils. "Differential Online Exposure to Extremist Content and Political Violence: Testing the Relative Strength of Social Learning and Competing Perspectives." Terrorism and Political Violence 28, no. 1 (2016): 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2013.876414 |
| Sacred values made more proprietary by belligerent and dangerous surroundings | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Sacred values are made more proprietary by belligerent and dangerous group's surroundings meaning that when exposed to belligerent and dangerous surroundings, one's commitment to their sacred values will be reinforced. This enhances mutual reliance within the group but exacerbates distrust and hostility toward other groups. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: Wilson, David Sloan. Darwin’s Cathedral : Evolution, Religion, and the Nature of Society. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2002. |
| Conflict experienced as an existential threat to the most cherished values that identify "what I am" and "who we are" | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Group identity | Unspecified | Unspecified | In 2018, 95% of deaths from terrorism happened in countries already experiencing violent conflict (START 2020). | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | Two sources are cited in support: Atran, Scott, and Jeremy Ginges. “Religious and sacred imperatives in human conflict.” Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 336, no. 6083 (2012): 855–857. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1216902 START. "Global Terrorism Database." Database. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, University of Maryland, College Park, 2020. |
| Religion without self-correction (i.e. the correction of self-centered impulses). | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Impulse/self control | If appropriate self-correction of impulses does not take place, then religion can lead to militant and violent behavior against those not believing in the same religion. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The author of this review article defines terrorism as the engagement of individuals or groups in ideologically motivated violence or other destructive acts against persons, property, or the fabric of society. They cite this definition from the Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service. Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service "Animal Rights Extremism in the Netherlands: Fragmented but Growing." The Hague: Neth. Gen. Intell. Secur. Serv. (2009). | Van den Bos, Kees. "Unfairness and Radicalization." Annual Review of Psychology 71 (2020): 563–588. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050953 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Van den Bos, 2018 serves as an organizational framework for this article, the author doesn't specify what articles were used for the research. | Two references provide support for this risk factor: Juergensmeyer, Mark. Terror in the Mind of God: The Global Rise of Religious Violence. 3rd ed. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2003. Stern, Jessica. Terror in the Name of God: Why Religious Militants Kill. New York: HarperCollins, 2004. |
| Value-driven, morally focused information in general, particularly on social media | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Technology) Multimedia | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Internet | Value-driven, morally focused information in general, and particularly on social media, drives not only readiness to believe but also actions for beliefs. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: Gómez, Ángel, Lucía López-Rodríguez, Hammad Sheikh, Jeremy Ginges, Lydia Wilson, Hoshang Waziri, Alexandra Vázquez, Richard Davis, and Scott Atran. “The Devoted Actor’s Will to Fight and the Spiritual Dimension of Human Conflict.” Nature human behaviour 1, no. 9 (2017): 673–679. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-017-0193-3 Feinberg, Matthew, and Robb Willer. "From Gulf to Bridge: When Do Moral Arguments Facilitate Political Influence?" Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 41 (2015): 1665–1681. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167215607842 Mooijman, Marjolein, J. Hoover, Y. Lin, H. Ji, and M. Dehghani. "Moralization in Social Networks and the Emergence of Violence During Protests." Nature Human Behaviour 6 (2018): 389–396. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-018-0353-0 Crockett, Molly. "Moral Outrage in the Digital Age." Nature Human Behaviour 1 (2017): 769–771. Davis, R. Hamas, Popular Support and War in the Middle East. New York: Routledge, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-017-0213-3 |
| Already cognitively radicalized or radicalizing individuals provided with the opportunity to engage with internet content and associations who can provide confirmation for their beliefs | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Technology) Multimedia | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Radicalization, Internet | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review looked at individual‐level media effects on two outcomes of radicalization, cognitive and behavioral, with cognitive radicalization being limited to support, justification of, or a willingness/intention toward the use of radical violence in the name of a cause or ideology, and behavioral radicalization pertaining to the actual involvement in such violence. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Badi Hasisi, and David Weisburd. "What Are the Effects of Different Elements of Media on Radicalization Outcomes? A Systematic Review." Campbell Systematic Reviews 18, no. 2 (2022): e1244. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1244 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The review summarizes evidence from 4 experimental and 49 observational studies and synthesizes the effects of 23 media‐related risk factors across the two outcomes of cognitive and behavioral radicalization. | This assumption is analogous to evidence on media effects in which it has been found that individuals with aggressive tendencies preferentially search out violent media content, which in turn reinforce, or increases their aggression, and thereby increase the potential for engaging in aggressive behaviors. Slater, Michael D., Kimberly L. Henry, Randall C. Swaim, and Lori L. Anderson. "Violent Media Content and Aggressiveness in Adolescents: A Downward Spiral Model." Communication Research 30, no. 6 (2003): 713–736. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093650203258281 |
| Being raised in a religious household | Static protective factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | This study did not show a significant effect between being raised in a religious household and violent extremist behavior. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Adults | No differentiation | Lone‐actor terrorists who planned their attacks in the US, UK, Europe, or Australia. | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article is referenced which did not show a significant effect: Clemmow, Caitlin, Sandy Schumann, Nadine L. Salman, and Paul Gill. "The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism." Journal of Forensic Sciences 65, no. 3 (2020): 865–881. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.14282 |
| Religious upbringing | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a very small effect size for this risk factor |
| Deeply felt perception of moral righteousness | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Status/Power/Significance | Individual moral righteousness has been observed in the Netherlands concerning left-wing radicalization pertaining to asylum and animal rights. Individuals fighting for these rights felt justified and entitled to do something about these issues, even if this meant breaking the law or acting in anti-democratic or even violent ways | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The author of this review article defines terrorism as the engagement of individuals or groups in ideologically motivated violence or other destructive acts against persons, property, or the fabric of society. They cite this definition from the Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service. Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service "Animal Rights Extremism in the Netherlands: Fragmented but Growing." The Hague: Neth. Gen. Intell. Secur. Serv. (2009). | Van den Bos, Kees. "Unfairness and Radicalization." Annual Review of Psychology 71 (2020): 563–588. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050953 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Van den Bos, 2018 serves as an organizational framework for this article, the author doesn't specify what articles were used for the research. | Two references provide support for this risk factor: Van den Bos, K. Why People Radicalize. New York: Oxford University Press, 2018. IVA. De Strijd voor Dierenrechten en Tegen Asiel- en Vreemdelingenbeleid: Een Onderzoek naar Verschillen en Overeenkomsten van Radicaliseringprocessen van Extremisten. Tilburg, Netherlands: IVA, 2010. |
| Self-control (low impulsivity) | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Impulse/self control | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Youth, Adults | No differentiation | Belgium | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article analyzes how radicalization may lead to violent behavioral outcomes, which the authors define as "violent extremist behavior against persons and property" | Lösel, Friedrich, Sonja King, Doris Bender, and Irina Jugl. "Protective Factors Against Extremism and Violent Radicalization: A Systematic Review of Research." International Journal of Developmental Science 12, no. 1-2 (2018): 89-102. https://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-170241 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | 17 reports containing 21 analyses that specifically addressed potential protective effects and provided quantitative data. 11 analyses addressed protective factors against religious/ethnic extremism. Five analyses investigated protective factors against far-right extremism, two far-left, one nationalist/separatist, and two mixed orientation. | One study was analyzed and the author's reported the effect as a main finding: At the individual level, self-control reduced violence in persons with far-right, far-left, and religious/ethnic extremism, particularly in young people holding highly extremist beliefs. Pauwels, Lieven J. R., and Robert Svensson. "How Robust Is the Moderating Effect of Extremist Beliefs on the Relationship Between Self-Control and Violent Extremism?" Crime & Delinquency 63, no. 8 (2017): 1000–1016. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/0011128716687757 |
| Low in attitudinal and behavioral self-control | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Impulse/self control | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites one article as support for this risk factor; Pauwels, Lieven, and Nele Schils. "Differential Online Exposure to Extremist Content and Political Violence: Testing the Relative Strength of Social Learning and Competing Perspectives." Terrorism and Political Violence 28, no. 1 (2016): 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2013.876414 |
| Low self control | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Impulse/self control | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a small effect size for this risk factor. |
| Poor regulation of aggression | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Impulse/self control | Unspecified | Unspecified | The article finds that "poor regulation of aggression was present in 24 Jihadist offenders (32%)." This prevalence is from a sample of 118 Jihadist offenders, of which 5 are women and 113 are men, all 22 or older. This prevalence rate refers to the sample used in the studies which only considers perpetrators of terrorism or violent extremism and does not compare with the general population. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | The article mentions one study: Nils Duits, Daphne Alberda, and Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology of young terrorist offenders, and the interaction with ideology and grievances." Frontiers in Psychiatry. 13:801751 (2022). doi: 10.3389/fpsyt.2022.801751 |
| Reduced gray matter volume in the orbitofrontal cortex | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Impulse/self control | The orbitofrontal cortex is relevant for processing of reward/ punishment, emotion regulation, self-control, and behavioral inhibition, and is interconnected with the limbic areas. Specifically, orbitofrontal cortex lesions (which cause a loss of gray matter) are associated with an increase in aggression and impulsiveness, socially inadequate behavior, and enhanced disinhibition. | Unspecified | The article associates these risk factors to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | Three articles provide support for this risk factor: Yang, Yaling, Adrian Raine, Patrick Colletti, Arthur W Toga, and Katherine L Narr. “Morphological Alterations in the Prefrontal Cortex and the Amygdala in Unsuccessful Psychopaths.” Journal of abnormal psychology (1965) 119, no. 3 (2010): 546–554. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0019611 Kumari, Veena, Ian Barkataki, Sangeeta Goswami, Satinder Flora, Mrigendra Das, and Pamela Taylor. “Dysfunctional, but Not Functional, Impulsivity Is Associated with a History of Seriously Violent Behaviour and Reduced Orbitofrontal and Hippocampal Volumes in Schizophrenia.” Psychiatry research. Neuroimaging 173, no. 1 (2009): 39–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pscychresns.2008.09.003 Tiihonen, Jari, Roberta Rossi, Mikko P Laakso, Sheilagh Hodgins, Cristina Testa, Jorge Perez, Eila Repo-Tiihonen, et al. “Brain Anatomy of Persistent Violent Offenders: More Rather than Less.” Psychiatry research. Neuroimaging 163, no. 3 (2008): 201–212.. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pscychresns.2007.08.012 |
| Reduced gray matter volume in the orbitofrontal cortex | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Impulse/self control | The orbitofrontal cortex is relevant for processing of reward/ punishment, emotion regulation, self-control, and behavioral inhibition, and is interconnected with the limbic areas. Specifically, orbitofrontal cortex lesions (which cause a loss of gray matter) are associated with an increase in aggression and impulsiveness, socially inadequate behavior, and enhanced disinhibition. | Unspecified | The article associates these risk factors to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | One article opposes this risk factor, finding that higher levels of psychopathic traits were associated with increased GMV in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) - when other research shows the opposite. Cope, Lora M, Matthew S Shane, Judith M Segall, Prashanth K Nyalakanti, Michael C Stevens, Godfrey D Pearlson, Vince D Calhoun, and Kent A Kiehl. “Examining the Effect of Psychopathic Traits on Gray Matter Volume in a Community Substance Abuse Sample.” Psychiatry research. Neuroimaging 204, no. 2 (2012): 91–100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pscychresns.2012.10.004 |
| Reduced gray matter density in the orbitofrontal cortex and in the frontal midline structures | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Impulse/self control | The orbitofrontal cortex is relevant for processing of reward/ punishment, emotion regulation, self-control, and behavioral inhibition, and is interconnected with the limbic areas. Specifically, orbitofrontal cortex lesions are associated with an increase in aggression and impulsiveness, socially inadequate behavior, and enhanced disinhibition. | Unspecified | A 20% reduced gray matter density was reported in the orbitofrontal cortex and frontal midline structures when comparing violent offender with both psychopathic and healthy controls. The article associates these risk factors to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Boccardi, Marina, Giovanni B Frisoni, Robert D Hare, Enrica Cavedo, Pablo Najt, Michela Pievani, Paul E Rasser, et al. “Cortex and Amygdala Morphology in Psychopathy.” Psychiatry research. Neuroimaging 193, no. 2 (2011): 85–92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pscychresns.2010.12.013 |
| Abnormalities in the anterior cingulate cortex | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Impulse/self control | People suffering from abnormalities in the anterior cingulate cortex of their brain are more likely to partake in violent behavior than people without such abnormalities in their brain because this part of the brain is involved in emotion-regulation circuitry. | Unspecified | Abnormalities in the anterior cingulate cortex are associated with an increased propensity for violent behavior. The article associates these risk factors to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Davidson, Richard J, Katherine M Putnam, and Christine L Larson. “Dysfunction in the Neural Circuitry of Emotion Regulation: A Possible Prelude to Violence.” Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 289, no. 5479 (2000): 591–594. http://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5479.591 |
| Atrophy in the frontopolar cortex in the frontal lobe | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Impulse/self control | This part of the brain regulates emotion-regulation circuitry. Abnormalities in this area are associated with an increased propensity for violent behavior and hence people with damages in this part part of their brain are more likely to partake in violent extremism. | Unspecified | The article associates this risk factor to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Tiihonen, Jari, Roberta Rossi, Mikko P Laakso, Sheilagh Hodgins, Cristina Testa, Jorge Perez, Eila Repo-Tiihonen, et al. “Brain Anatomy of Persistent Violent Offenders: More Rather than Less.” Psychiatry research. Neuroimaging 163, no. 3 (2008): 201–212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pscychresns.2007.08.012 |
| Loss of gray matter in the medial and lateral temporal regions (in the temporal lobe) | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Impulse/self control | The cortical regions essentially located at the basal frontal and medial temporal lobe projecting to the amygdala and thereby controlling aggression generating limbic and diencephalic networks show structural and functional defects in impulsive violent men. As such, loss of gray matter in the medial and lateral regions of the brain makes one more likely to partake in violent extremism. | Unspecified | The article associates this risk factor to violent crime but mentions that they are also relevant to violent extremism. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Cope, Lora M., Elsa Ermer, Lyn M. Gaudet, Vaughn R. Steele, Alex L. Eckhardt, Mohammad R. Arbabshirani, Michael F. Caldwell, Vince D. Calhoun, and Kent A. Kiehl. "Abnormal brain structure in youth who commit homicide." Neuroimage: clinical 4 (2014): 800-807. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nicl.2014.05.002 |
| Graduate lessening, or even abandonment, of education if a radicalized person is enrolled in education | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | In school/drop-out | Unspecified | Unspecified | Shuurman and Carthy found that gradual lessening, or even abandonment, of education if a radicalized person is enrolled in education was positively associated with their involvement in terrorist violence. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Conditions in refugee camps or centers coupled with host-country treatment | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Integration of migrants/refugees | Refugees may find themselves in terrible living conditions in which the states hosting the refugees treat them poorly. These two factors can lead to transnational terrorism as some smaller subset of the refugee population responds against the host state. | Unspecified | Though the proportion of refugees who radicalize and become violent is usually very small, conditions in camps or centers coupled with host-country treatment can encourage militarization (Milton et al., 2013). | Spillover | Societal, Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article reviews literature on civil war spillover, where civil wars are defined as conflicts fought between a government and one or more domestic opposition groups. While different definitions and criteria can lead to the inclusion or exclusion of particular events in different studies, this article considers a broad range of domestic conflict situations. The overview of scholarship in this area thus includes studies that apply different definitions of “civil war.” The general term “spillover” is used here to describe effects of civil war violence that do not remain contained by international borders. | Pack, Thomas. “Civil War Spillover.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. May 22, 2024. Accessed October 11, 2024. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-905?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-905&p=emailAAz51M7pDhr7U | Academic | 2024 | Reference to one or several articles | This article offers a review of both quantitative and qualitative articles on the state of the international relations literature on both the causes and consequences of civil war spillover, as well as future directions for research in this area. | The review references one article: Milton, Daniel, Matthew Spencer, and Michael Findley. "Radicalism of the Hopeless: Refugee Flows and Transnational Terrorism." International Interactions 39, no. 5 (2013): 621–645. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03050629.2013.834256 |
| Online contact with radicals | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Internet, Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a moderate effect size for this risk factor |
| Higher educational level | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Level of education | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Adults | No differentiation | Indonesia | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article analyzes how radicalization may lead to violent behavioral outcomes, which the authors define as "violent extremist behavior against persons and property" | Lösel, Friedrich, Sonja King, Doris Bender, and Irina Jugl. "Protective Factors Against Extremism and Violent Radicalization: A Systematic Review of Research." International Journal of Developmental Science 12, no. 1-2 (2018): 89-102. https://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-170241 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | 17 reports containing 21 analyses that specifically addressed potential protective effects and provided quantitative data. 11 analyses addressed protective factors against religious/ethnic extremism. Five analyses investigated protective factors against far-right extremism, two far-left, one nationalist/separatist, and two mixed orientation. | One study was analyzed and the author's reported the effect as a main finding: People with a higher education level are less prone to religious and ethnic extremism. Muluk, Hamdi, Nathanael G. Sumaktoyo, and Dhyah Madya Ruth. "Jihad as Justification: National Survey Evidence of Belief in Violent Jihad as a Mediating Factor for Sacred Violence Among Muslims in Indonesia." Asian Journal of Social Psychology 16, no. 2 (2013): 101–111. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/ajsp.12002 |
| Having some degree of post-secondary education, or a current student | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Level of education | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites four references as support for this risk factor: Carlton, David. "The Future of Political Substate Violence." In Terrorism: Theory and Practice, edited by Yonah Alexander, 201–230. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1979. Gambetta, Diego, and Steffen Hertog. Engineers of Jihad: The Curious Connection Between Violent Extremism and Education. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016. Russell, Charles A., and Bowman H. Miller. "Profile of a Terrorist." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 1, no. 1 (1977): 17–34. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576107708435394 Weinberg, Leonard, and William L. Eubank. "Neo-Fascist and Far Left Terrorists in Italy: Some Biographical Observations." British Journal of Political Science 18, no. 4 (1988): 531–549. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123400005251 |
| High levels of education | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Level of education | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | This effect was significantly higher among those with islamist ideology | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a very small effect / insignificant size for protective factor |
| Poor education | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Level of education | Unspecified | Unspecified | no sufficient association | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article mentions this risk factor: Brockhoff, Sarah, Tim Krieger, and Daniel Meierrieks. “Great Expectations and Hard Times: The (Nontrivial) Impact of Education on Domestic Terrorism.” The Journal of conflict resolution 59, no. 7 (2015): 1186–1215. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002713520589 |
| Level of education completed prior to radicalization | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Level of education | The criminological theory of “social control” postulates that individuals with pro-social ties to society, such as those gained through employment, educational commitments, or being in a relationship, are less likely to engage in criminal or delinquent behavior. | Unspecified | With regard to education, Schuurman and Carthy found that the type or level of education (e.g., primary, secondary, etc.) completed prior to radicalization was not significantly associated with future radicalization process outcomes. This tentatively suggests that the level or extent of education completed prior to education is unlikely to indicate whether radicalization will lead to involvement in terrorist violence. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Tertiary education completed prior to radicalization | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Level of education | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Low level of education | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Level of education | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Benmelech et al. (2010) note that poor socio-economic conditions can drive the most educated individuals into terrorist attacks, allowing organizations to send the best qualified on terrorist missions to have an even higher impact: “Five of the most lethal suicide bombers possessed a higher education degree or were studying for one ..., younger and less educated suicide bombers were more likely to detonate their bombs too soon, get caught by the authorities or give in to doubt.” | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The study defines suicide terrorism as “the targeted use of self-destructive men against a population of non-combatants (typically civilians), in order to effect political change”. (Atran, 2003). The study uses the phrase "suicide terrorist” to refer to kamikased or human bombs (suicide terrorists); a voluntarist who gives his or her life to achieve a political objective. (Barzin, 2010). Suicide terrorism is the only form of combat in which the attacker contemplates extreme actions in which he does not expect to survive the mission (Pape, 2005), and in which the chances of returning surviving are “close to zero” (Pedahzur, 2006). | Fekih-Romdhane, Feten, Leila Chennoufi, and Mejda Cheour. “Les terroristes suicidaires : qui sont-ils ?” Annales médico psychologiques 174, no. 4 (2016): 274–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2015.10.026 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | This study is a literature review surveying 41 academic and grey literature sources which analyse various aspects of suicide terrorism. | One study provides support for this risk factor: Benmelech, Efraim and Claude Berrebi, Esteban F. Klor. "Economic Conditions and the Quality of Suicide Terrorism." NBER Working Papers 16320. National Bureau of Economic Research. 2010. doi.org/10.3386/w16320 |
| Recent loss of employment | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Loss/gain of employment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a moderate effect size for this risk factor |
| Having a family member die | Static protective factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Major life event | Unspecified | Unspecified | This study found a general population sample were more likely to have experienced a death in the family | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Adults | No differentiation | Lone‐actor terrorists who planned their attacks in the US, UK, Europe, or Australia. | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article is referenced in support; Clemmow, Caitlin, Sandy Schumann, Nadine L. Salman, and Paul Gill. "The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism." Journal of Forensic Sciences 65, no. 3 (2020): 865–881. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.14282 |
| Transitional stages of life | Static risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Major life event | People in transitional stages of life look for surrogate family, friends, fellow travelers, and activist groups that offer excitement, community, and purpose | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: Schumpe, Birga M., Jocelyn J. Bélanger, Manuel Moyano, and Claudia F. Nisa. "The Role of Sensation Seeking in Political Violence: An Extension of the Significance Quest Theory." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 118, no. 4 (2020): 743–761. https://doi.org/10.1037/pspp0000223 |
| Frustration about important events in someone's life | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Major life event | When coupled with a history of delinquency or other personal difficulties, personal frustration can lead them to engage in different paths of radicalization that ultimately lead to militancy and terrorism. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | History of delinquency / other personal difficulties | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The author of this review article defines terrorism as the engagement of individuals or groups in ideologically motivated violence or other destructive acts against persons, property, or the fabric of society. They cite this definition from the Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service. Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service "Animal Rights Extremism in the Netherlands: Fragmented but Growing." The Hague: Neth. Gen. Intell. Secur. Serv. (2009). | Van den Bos, Kees. "Unfairness and Radicalization." Annual Review of Psychology 71 (2020): 563–588. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050953 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Van den Bos, 2018 serves as an organizational framework for this article, the author doesn't specify what articles were used for the research. | Two articles provide support for this risk factor: Kepel, Gilles, and Brice Rougier. "Addressing Terrorism: European Research in Social Sciences and the Humanities in Support to Policies for Inclusion and Security—A Policy Review." Report, European Commission, Brussels, Belgium, 2016. Folger, Robert. "Distributive and Procedural Justice: Combined Impact of 'Voice' and Improvement of Experienced Inequity." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35 (1977): 108–19. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.35.2.108 |
| Relatively high levels of bereavement | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Major life event | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | Two articles depict relatively high levels of bereavement: Bouzar, D, and M Martin. “Pour quels motifs les jeunes s’engagent-ils dans le djihad ?” Neuropsychiatrie de l’enfance et de l’adolescence 64, no. 6 (2016): 353–359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neurenf.2016.08.002 Knight, S., Woodward, K., & Lancaster, G. L. (2017). Violent versus nonviolent actors: An empirical study of different types of extremism. Journal of Threat Assessment and Management, 4(4), 230. https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000086 |
| Social stress resulting from major life and identity changes | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Major life event | Sometimes life changes encompass the loss of what had previously acted as a protective factor which buffered the other risk factors present in the individual’s life. | Unspecified | Capellan’s (2015) study of lone-actor terrorists found 45% had experienced a significant recent life change prior to their attack. Jasko et al. (2017) found 29% had experienced a loss of social standing and 36% had been kicked out or dismissed from social groups or organizations. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | Three studies are cited in support, which together find, "research commonly identifies a tipping point or a catalysing event that accelerated the movement from a violent belief system into violent behaviour. " Capellan, Joel A. “Lone Wolf Terrorist or Deranged Shooter? A Study of Ideological Active Shooter Events in the United States, 1970-2014.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 38, no. 6 (2015): 395–413. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1008341 Jasko, Katarzyna, Gary LaFree, and Arie Kruglanski. “Quest for Significance and Violent Extremism: The Case of Domestic Radicalization.” Political psychology 38, no. 5 (2017): 815–831. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12376 Simi, Pete, Bryan F Bubolz, and Ann Hardman. “Military Experience, Identity Discrepancies, and Far Right Terrorism: An Exploratory Analysis.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 36, no. 8 (2013): 654–671. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2013.802976 |
| Relationship breakup during radicalization | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Major life event | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Death of parent / guardian | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Major life event | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Being a man | Static risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Male | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | This effect was significantly higher among those with islamist ideology | Does not specify | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a moderate effect size for this risk factor |
| Being a young man | Static risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Male, Age | Young men are more prone to violence than women and are traditionally more solicited for war. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Youth | Male | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: Junger-Tas, Josine, Ineke Haen Marshall, Dirk Enzmann, Martin Killias, Majone Steketee, and Beata Gruszczynska. The Many Faces of Youth Crime: Contrasting Theoretical Perspectives on Juvenile Delinquency across Countries and Cultures. New York: Springer, 2012. Van Vugt, Mark, David De Cremer, and Dirk P. Janssen. "Gender Differences in Cooperation and Competition: The Male-Warrior Hypothesis." Psychological Science 18, no. 1 (2007): 19–23. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2007.01842.x |
| Being married | Static protective factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Marital and Parental Status | Unspecified | Marital status recorded through an analysis of documents such as Google searches and UK Home Office reports in the case of terrorists. | This effect was found to be significant among a population of Muslim people in the UK | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | UK | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article is referenced in support: Altunbas, Yener, and John Thornton. "Are Homegrown Islamic Terrorists Different? Some UK Evidence." Southern Economic Journal 78, no. 2 (2011): 262–272. http://doi.org/10.4284/0038-4038-78.2.262 |
| Having children | Static protective factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Marital and Parental Status | Unspecified | Unspecified | This study showed a statistically significant relationship between having children and a reduced likelihood of violent extremist behavior. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Adults | No differentiation | Lone‐actor terrorists who planned their attacks in the US, UK, Europe, or Australia. | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article is referenced in support; Clemmow, Caitlin, Sandy Schumann, Nadine L. Salman, and Paul Gill. "The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism." Journal of Forensic Sciences 65, no. 3 (2020): 865–881. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.14282 |
| Being single | Static risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Marital and Parental Status | Unspecified | Unspecified | Each study did not show a significant effect between being single and violent extremist behavior. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Adults | No differentiation | Lone‐actor terrorists who planned their attacks in the US, UK, Europe, or Australia. | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | Two articles were cited, both of which did not have a significant effect Clemmow, Caitlin, Sandy Schumann, Nadine L. Salman, and Paul Gill. "The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism." Journal of Forensic Sciences 65, no. 3 (2020): 865–881. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.14282 Dhumad, Saleh, Philip J. Candilis, Sean D. Cleary, Allen R. Dyer, and Najat Khalifa. "Risk Factors for Terrorism: A Comparison of Family, Childhood, and Personality Risk Factors Among Iraqi Terrorists, Murderers, and Controls." Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression 12, no. 1 (2020): 72–88. http://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2019.1687550 |
| Being married | Static protective factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Marital and Parental Status | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | This effect was significantly higher among those with no specific ideology (e.g., Islamist, right‐wing, and left‐wing ideologies) | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a very small effect size for this protective factor |
| Becoming a parent during radicalization | Static protective factor | Demographic, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Marital and Parental Status | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy found that becoming a parent during radicalization is very strongly associated with non-involvement in terrorist violence. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article provides support for this protective factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Having children born before radicalization | Static protective factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Marital and Parental Status | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Duty of care before radicalization | Static protective factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Marital and Parental Status | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Countries with higher ratios of marriageable men to women | Static risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Marital and Parental Status | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited in support: Gibson, Kyle. “The Roles of Operational Sex Ratio and Young-Old Ratio in Producing Suicide Attackers.” ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2011. |
| Being a young, single man | Static risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Marital and Parental Status, Age, Male | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Youth | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites one article as support for this risk factor; Meloy, J. Reid, and Paul Gill. "The Lone-Actor Terrorist and the TRAP-18." Journal of Threat Assessment and Management 3, no. 1 (2016): 37–52. https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000061 |
| Propagandists subjectively selecting and redistributing mainstream media reports of attacks against certain groups | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights, (Technology) Multimedia, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Media coverage, Discrimination, Divisive/unifying narratives | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review looked at individual‐level media effects on two outcomes of radicalization, cognitive and behavioral, with cognitive radicalization being limited to support, justification of, or a willingness/intention toward the use of radical violence in the name of a cause or ideology, and behavioral radicalization pertaining to the actual involvement in such violence. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Badi Hasisi, and David Weisburd. "What Are the Effects of Different Elements of Media on Radicalization Outcomes? A Systematic Review." Campbell Systematic Reviews 18, no. 2 (2022): e1244. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1244 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The review summarizes evidence from 4 experimental and 49 observational studies and synthesizes the effects of 23 media‐related risk factors across the two outcomes of cognitive and behavioral radicalization. | This form of "hybrid propaganda" has been found to have played a key role in the radicalization of radical offenders in Europe. Baugut, Philipp, and Klaus Neumann. "How Right-Wing Extremists Use and Perceive News Media." Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly 96, no. 3 (2019): 696–720. https://doi.org/10.1177/1077699018803080 |
| Being exposed to media reporting on terrorist attacks and groups, including media that highlights grievances and spreads the message of terrorists, groups and their proponents | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Media coverage, Divisive/unifying narratives | This media exposure provides terrorists, groups, and their proponents with a vehicle for highlighting their grievances and spreading their message. In doing so, terrorists aim to attract new supporters and recruits, and strengthen their image among their current supporters. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review looked at individual‐level media effects on two outcomes of radicalization, cognitive and behavioral, with cognitive radicalization being limited to support, justification of, or a willingness/intention toward the use of radical violence in the name of a cause or ideology, and behavioral radicalization pertaining to the actual involvement in such violence. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Badi Hasisi, and David Weisburd. "What Are the Effects of Different Elements of Media on Radicalization Outcomes? A Systematic Review." Campbell Systematic Reviews 18, no. 2 (2022): e1244. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1244 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The review summarizes evidence from 4 experimental and 49 observational studies and synthesizes the effects of 23 media‐related risk factors across the two outcomes of cognitive and behavioral radicalization. | The article references: Weimann, Gabriel. "The Theater of Terror: The Psychology of Terrorism and the Mass Media." Journal of Aggression, Maltreatment & Trauma 9, no. 3–4 (2005): 379–390. https://doi.org/10.1300/J146v09n03_08 |
| Being exposed to media reporting on social issues that highlight discrimination or violence against different groups | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia, (Political) Legitimacy of the State, (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Media coverage, Exclusion/inclusion, (In)directly experienced violence/safety | Media reports portraying a range of social issues may highlight forms of discrimination or violence against different groups—both locally and abroad—which can increase feelings of anger, deprivation, and identification with the oppressed group. All these factors can increase the likelihood that an individual will support what they perceive to be the use of defensive violence, or even engage in it themselves. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment, Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review looked at individual‐level media effects on two outcomes of radicalization, cognitive and behavioral, with cognitive radicalization being limited to support, justification of, or a willingness/intention toward the use of radical violence in the name of a cause or ideology, and behavioral radicalization pertaining to the actual involvement in such violence. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Badi Hasisi, and David Weisburd. "What Are the Effects of Different Elements of Media on Radicalization Outcomes? A Systematic Review." Campbell Systematic Reviews 18, no. 2 (2022): e1244. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1244 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The review summarizes evidence from 4 experimental and 49 observational studies and synthesizes the effects of 23 media‐related risk factors across the two outcomes of cognitive and behavioral radicalization. | The article references: Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "A Field-Wide Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Putative Risk and Protective Factors for Radicalization Outcomes." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 36, no. 3 (2020): 407–447. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-019-09439-4 |
| Being exposed to images, scenes, and messages that highlight attacks on a group with whom an individual identifies | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia, (Psychosocial) Belonging, (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Media coverage, Group identity, Discrimination | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review looked at individual‐level media effects on two outcomes of radicalization, cognitive and behavioral, with cognitive radicalization being limited to support, justification of, or a willingness/intention toward the use of radical violence in the name of a cause or ideology, and behavioral radicalization pertaining to the actual involvement in such violence. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Badi Hasisi, and David Weisburd. "What Are the Effects of Different Elements of Media on Radicalization Outcomes? A Systematic Review." Campbell Systematic Reviews 18, no. 2 (2022): e1244. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1244 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The review summarizes evidence from 4 experimental and 49 observational studies and synthesizes the effects of 23 media‐related risk factors across the two outcomes of cognitive and behavioral radicalization. | Interviews with former terrorists and non‐violent radicals reveal television, news media, and selected propaganda items that may expose a receiver to images, scenes, and messages that highlight attacks on a group with whom they identify can play a central role at different stages of the radicalization process. Baugut, Philipp, and Klaus Neumann. "How Right-Wing Extremists Use and Perceive News Media." Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly 96, no. 3 (2019): 696–720. https://doi.org/10.1177/1077699018803080 |
| Being exposed to multidimensional media broadcasting violent imagery and/or subtle or explicit ideological messaging | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Media coverage, Ideology, (In)directly experienced violence/safety | As social cognitive theorist Albert Bandura (1990) wrote, “They [terrorists] use television as the main instrument for gaining sympathy and supportive action” (p. 8). As a multidimensional media, providing news, entertainment, and broadcast, television can potentially affect sympathy and support (cognitive radicalization), or supportive action (behavioral radicalization) in multiple ways (Matusitz, 2013). First, as a source of exposure to violent imagery, either real or fictitious, television can activate aggression and increase desensitization. These images, as well as general news and political news about social issues and conflicts, can also serve as source of imitation, and grievance. Television can also serve as a medium for the broadcasting of both explicit and more subtly ideological messaging, from politicians and commentators to religious sermons and other programming (Matusitz, 2013). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review looked at individual‐level media effects on two outcomes of radicalization, cognitive and behavioral, with cognitive radicalization being limited to support, justification of, or a willingness/intention toward the use of radical violence in the name of a cause or ideology, and behavioral radicalization pertaining to the actual involvement in such violence. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Badi Hasisi, and David Weisburd. "What Are the Effects of Different Elements of Media on Radicalization Outcomes? A Systematic Review." Campbell Systematic Reviews 18, no. 2 (2022): e1244. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1244 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The review summarizes evidence from 4 experimental and 49 observational studies and synthesizes the effects of 23 media‐related risk factors across the two outcomes of cognitive and behavioral radicalization. | As a multidimensional media, providing news, entertainment, and broadcast, television can potentially affect sympathy and support (cognitive radicalization), or supportive action (behavioral radicalization) in multiple ways. Matusitz, Jonathan. Terrorism and Communication : A Critical Introduction. 1st ed. Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications, Incorporated, 2012. |
| Psychological related issues | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Among 140 failed foreign fighters from the Netherlands Weenink (2015) found that 60% had evidence of psychological problems. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites one article as support for this risk factor; Weenink, Anton W. "Behavioral Problems and Disorders among Radicals in Police Files." Perspectives on Terrorism 9, no. 2 (2015): 17–33. |
| Mental health related issues | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | In interviews with 44 former white supremacists, Simi et al. (2016) found that 41% suffered from some form of mental health issues (Simi et al.,2016). | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites one article as support for this risk factor; Simi, Pete, Karyn Sporer, and Bryan F. Bubolz. "Narratives of Childhood Adversity and Adolescent Misconduct as Precursors to Violent Extremism: A Life-Course Criminological Approach." Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 53, no. 4 (2016): 536–563. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427815627312 |
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| Having mental-health conditions | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a small effect size for this risk factor |
| Higher rates of identified mental health disorders compared to the general population | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | If we pool the results of those samples (n=19) purely focused upon confirmed diagnoses were sample sizes are known (n=1705 subjects), the results suggest a rate of 14.4% with a confirmed diagnosis. However, this is likely slightly inflated as multiple studies focus on similar populations of terrorists (e.g. lone actors) or geographical remits (e.g. U.S.). | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Sample countries of each study is provided. Include US, Germany, Northern Island, Dutch, Palestine, Iraq, and some general (presumably international) samples. | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | 25 studies measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Collectively, the authors argue, these results largely dispel the myth that there is no mental disorder presence within terrorist samples. The authors do note that "Violent extremists may display similar risky and adverse behaviours, yet emerge from multiple pathways, some of which may involve mental health problems" |
| Time spent in psychiatric wards | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Oppetit et al. (2019) examined the case files of 150 French individuals who sought to join ISIS. 12.7% spent time in psychiatric wards before their offense. | Recruitment, Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | France | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | One article is referenced in support: Oppetit, Alice, Nicolas Campelo, Laura Bouzar, Hugues Pellerin, Serge Hefez, Guillaume Bronsard, Dounia Bouzar, and David Cohen. "Do radicalized minors have different social and psychological profiles from radicalized adults?." Frontiers in Psychiatry 10 (2019): 644. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00644 |
| Self-harming prior to radicalization | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Oppetit et al. (2019) examined the case files of 150 French individuals who sought to join ISIS. 29.3% had self-harmed prior to being radicalised. | Recruitment, Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | France | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | One article is referenced in support: Oppetit, Alice, Nicolas Campelo, Laura Bouzar, Hugues Pellerin, Serge Hefez, Guillaume Bronsard, Dounia Bouzar, and David Cohen. "Do radicalized minors have different social and psychological profiles from radicalized adults?." Frontiers in Psychiatry 10 (2019): 644. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00644 |
| Suicidal ideation and/or suicide attempts | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | In Simi et al’s (2016) self-report study of 46 violent white supremacist groups members, the figure for suicidal ideation and/or suicide attempts was as high as 57%. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | Four articles note suicidal ideation and/or suicide attempts: Bouzar, D, and M Martin. “Pour quels motifs les jeunes s’engagent-ils dans le djihad ?” Neuropsychiatrie de l’enfance et de l’adolescence 64, no. 6 (2016): 353–359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neurenf.2016.08.002 Ilardi, Gaetano Joe. “Interviews With Canadian Radicals.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 36, no. 9 (2013): 713–738. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2013.813248 Corner, Emily, and Paul Gill. "Psychological distress, terrorist involvement and disengagement from terrorism: A sequence analysis approach." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 36 (2020): 499-526. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-019-09420-1 Simi, Pete, Karyn Sporer, and Bryan F. Bubolz. "Narratives of childhood adversity and adolescent misconduct as precursors to violent extremism: A life-course criminological approach." Journal of research in crime and delinquency 53, no. 4 (2016): 536-563. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427815627312 |
| Schizophrenia | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Weenink (2015) studied police files of 140 Dutch individuals who became foreign fighters and found elevated levels of schizophrenia and psychosis compared with the general population. | Recruitment, Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Netherlands | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | One article is referenced in support, Weenink (2015) found elevated levels of schizophrenia and psychosis compared with the general population. Weenink, Anton W. "Adversity, criminality, and mental health problems in Jihadis in Dutch police files." Perspectives on Terrorism 13, no. 5 (2019): 130-142. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336855104_Adversity_Criminality_and_Mental_Health_Problems_in_Jihadis_in_Dutch_Police_Files |
| Psychosis | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Weenink (2015) studied police files of 140 Dutch individuals who became foreign fighters and found elevated levels of schizophrenia and psychosis compared with the general population. | Recruitment, Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Netherlands | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | One article is referenced in support, Weenink (2015) found elevated levels of schizophrenia and psychosis compared with the general population. Weenink, Anton W. "Adversity, criminality, and mental health problems in Jihadis in Dutch police files." Perspectives on Terrorism 13, no. 5 (2019): 130-142. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336855104_Adversity_Criminality_and_Mental_Health_Problems_in_Jihadis_in_Dutch_Police_Files |
| Psychotic disorders | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Weenink (2019) found elevated levels of psychotic disorders compared to the general population. | Recruitment, Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Netherlands | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | Two articles are referenced in support, Weenink (2015) found elevated levels of schizophrenia and psychosis compared with the general population. In a greatly expanded dataset, Weenink (2019) additionally found elevated levels of psychotic disorders and PTSD. Weenink, Anton W. "Behavioral problems and disorders among radicals in police files." Perspectives on terrorism 9, no. 2 (2015): 17-33. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26297357 Weenink, Anton W. "Adversity, criminality, and mental health problems in Jihadis in Dutch police files." Perspectives on Terrorism 13, no. 5 (2019): 130-142. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336855104_Adversity_Criminality_and_Mental_Health_Problems_in_Jihadis_in_Dutch_Police_Files |
| Mental disorders, pathological personality traits, symptoms or psychological problems | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | The article says that in all eight studies considered for this review, the "prevalence of mental disorders, pathological personality traits, symptoms or psychological problems in general varied between 15% and 67%." This prevalence refers to the sample used in the studies which only considers perpetrators of terrorism or violent extremism and does not compare with the general population. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | Overall review |
| Deviant sexual behaviour | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | The article says that "deviant sexual behavior or interest in" was found in "14 (29%) lone actor Jihadi or right-wing inspired terrorists." This prevalence rate refers to the sample used in the studies which only considers perpetrators of terrorism or violent extremism and does not compare with the general population. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | The article refers to one study: Paul Gill, Emily Corner, Amy McKee, Paul Hitchen, and Paul Betley. “What Do Closed Source Data Tell Us About Lone Actor Terrorist Behavior? A Research Note.” Terrorism and Political Violence 34 (1) (2019): 113–30. doi:10.1080/09546553.2019.1668781. |
| Cluster B personality traits, i.e., narcissistic and antisocial personality traits | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | According to one study, narcissistic and antisocial personality traits were associated with perceived injustice contributing to making individuals more prone to terrorism. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | The article mentions one study: Nils Duits, Daphne Alberda, and Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology of young terrorist offenders, and the interaction with ideology and grievances." Frontiers in Psychiatry. 13:801751 (2022). doi: 10.3389/fpsyt.2022.801751 |
| Mental health problems | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | The “mixed” data within the present review suggest indications of a contributing role of psychopathology in terrorist or violent extremist behaviors. More specifically, mental health problems were found to be of influence in the actual proceeding to, or the executing of, such behaviors. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | Overall review |
| Cluster B personality traits, i.e., narcissistic and antisocial personality traits | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | The “mixed” data within the present review suggest indications of a contributing role of psychopathology in terrorist or violent extremist behaviors. More specifically, cluster B personality traits were found to be of influence in the actual proceeding to, or the executing of, such behaviors. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | Overall review |
| Psychiatric disorders | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Several explanations can be proposed to explain the important variations in the prevalence rates of psychiatric disorders identified in the systematic review. Importantly, the methodological discrepancies regarding both the psychiatric evaluation and the radicalized or terrorist statuses could be key elements in shedding light on these results. | Unspecified | Low rates of psychiatric disorders in group terrorists (3.4%) compared to lone-actor terrorists (41%) | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article centers on terrorism, which they cite as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation” (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019). | Trimbur, Margot et al. (2021) Are Radicalization and Terrorism Associated with Psychiatric Disorders? A Systematic Review., in Journal of Psychiatric Research 141, 214-222 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2021.07.002 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 25 articles, 1 qualitative study, 21 quantitative study, 2 mixed-methods studies, 7 studies included people at risk of radicalisation, 8 studies examined radicalised populations, and 10 studies investigated terrorist populations | Overall review states: In conclusion, our review did not identify a significant association between radicalization, terrorist activity, and psychiatric disorders. The vast majority of studies were of poor methodological quality. However, further studies will need to investigate the high rate of psychiatric disorders observed among lone actor terrorists. |
| Diagnosed neurodevelopmental disorder | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Narcissistic personality disorder | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One article is cited in support: Johnson, Phillip W., and Theodore B. Feldmann. "Personality types and terrorism: Self-psychology perspectives." Forensic Reports (1992). https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1993-10099-001 |
| Being suicidal | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Mental health/illness | Many suicide terrorists volunteer to blow themselves up without being coerced because they are already suicidal and are not primarily motivated by the desire to serve a particular cause. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article focuses on suicide terrorism, which the author does not provide a definition for. | Lankford, Adam. “Evidence That Suicide Terrorists Are Suicidal: Challenges and Empirical Predictions.” The Behavioral and brain sciences 37, no. 4 (2014): 380–393. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X13003609 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | The author uses a data set taken from his previous book: Lankford, Adam. The Myth of Martyrdom: What Really Drives Suicide Bombers, Rampage Shooters, and Other Self-Destructive Killers. First edition. New York, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, 2013. The data set is made up of 136 individuals who appear on the "partial list of suicide terrorists with risk factors for suicide", presented in Appendix A of the article cited above. The author also refers to multiple other academic articles. | Based on analysis in his previous book, Lankford argues that all suicide terrorists are suicidal: Lankford, Adam. The Myth of Martyrdom: What Really Drives Suicide Bombers, Rampage Shooters, and Other Self-Destructive Killers. First edition. New York, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, 2013. However, other researchers disagree, see Atran, Scott. “Genesis of Suicide Terrorism.” Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 299, no. 5612 (2003): 1534–1539. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1078854 |
| Mental disability | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Intelligence reports confirm that al-Qaeda is using people with mental disabilities in suicide attacks because of a serious shortage of suicide bombers in its ranks, owing to a lack of interest in the terrorist group's beliefs. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Being "mentally challenged" is linked to being suicidal | Does not specify | No differentiation | Iraq and Palestine | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article focuses on suicide terrorism, which the author does not provide a definition for. | Lankford, Adam. “Evidence That Suicide Terrorists Are Suicidal: Challenges and Empirical Predictions.” The Behavioral and brain sciences 37, no. 4 (2014): 380–393. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X13003609 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | The author uses a data set taken from his previous book: Lankford, Adam. The Myth of Martyrdom: What Really Drives Suicide Bombers, Rampage Shooters, and Other Self-Destructive Killers. First edition. New York, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, 2013. The data set is made up of 136 individuals who appear on the "partial list of suicide terrorists with risk factors for suicide", presented in Appendix A of the article cited above. The author also refers to multiple other academic articles. | Two articles provide support for this risk factor: Qaisi, M. (2012) "Al-Qaeda recruiting mentally challenged individuals for suicide attacks." Al-Shorfa, August 15, 2012. http://al-shorfa.com/en_GB/articles/meii/features/2012/08/20/feature-01 Berko, Anat. The Smarter Bomb: Women and Children as Suicide Bombers. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2016. |
| Suffering from psychological disorders | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Mental health/illness | A significant percentage of suicide bombers suffered from psychological disorders. The author argues that this supports the assertion that suicide terrorists are suicidal. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Suffering from "psychological disorders" is linked to being suicidal. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Iraq and Palestine | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article focuses on suicide terrorism, which the author does not provide a definition for. | Lankford, Adam. “Evidence That Suicide Terrorists Are Suicidal: Challenges and Empirical Predictions.” The Behavioral and brain sciences 37, no. 4 (2014): 380–393. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X13003609 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | The author uses a data set taken from his previous book: Lankford, Adam. The Myth of Martyrdom: What Really Drives Suicide Bombers, Rampage Shooters, and Other Self-Destructive Killers. First edition. New York, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, 2013. The data set is made up of 136 individuals who appear on the "partial list of suicide terrorists with risk factors for suicide", presented in Appendix A of the article cited above. The author also refers to multiple other academic articles. | One article and one book provide support for this risk factor: Qaisi, M. (2012) "Al-Qaeda recruiting mentally challenged individuals for suicide attacks." Al-Shorfa, August 15, 2012. http://al-shorfa.com/en_GB/articles/meii/features/2012/08/20/feature-01 Berko, Anat. The Smarter Bomb: Women and Children as Suicide Bombers. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2016. However, in Bym (2007), Brym argues that "virtually all suicide bombers are psychologically stable". Brym, Robert J. "Six lessons of suicide bombers." Contexts 6, no. 4 (2007): 40-45. https://doi.org/10.1525/ctx.2007.6.4.40 |
| Psychopathologies | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Th personalities of suicide terorrists are as diverse as those of the general population. Several studies on the subject have concluded that psychopathology is not a key part of the decision to carry out a terrorist act (Fekih-Romdhane et al 2016). | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The study defines suicide terrorism as “the targeted use of self-destructive men against a population of non-combatants (typically civilians), in order to effect political change” (Atran, 2003). The study uses the phrase "suicide terrorist” to refer to kamikased or human bombs (suicide terrorists); a voluntarist who gives his or her life to achieve a political objective (Barzin, 2010). Suicide terrorism is the only form of combat in which the attacker contemplates extreme actions in which he does not expect to survive the mission (Pape, 2005), and in which the chances of returning surviving are “close to zero” (Pedahzur, 2006). | Fekih-Romdhane, Feten, Leila Chennoufi, and Mejda Cheour. “Les terroristes suicidaires : qui sont-ils ?” Annales médico psychologiques 174, no. 4 (2016): 274–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2015.10.026 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | This study is a literature review surveying 41 academic and grey literature sources which analyse various aspects of suicide terrorism. | Two articles do not support this risk factor: Bacqué, Marie-Frédérique. "La fabrique du terroriste." Études sur la mort 130, no. 2 (2006): 61-69. https://doi.org/10.3917/eslm.130.0061 Courtet, Philippe, and Jean-Pierre Olié. "Suicides et tentatives de suicide." Flammarion medecine-sciences, 2010. https://doi.org/10.3917/lav.court.2010.01 |
| Psychosocial pathologies | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Merari (2002) found that 76% of family and friends of kamikazes interviewed, said that their family member/friend had no signs of depression and had not had a personal crisis within the year preceding their suicide Overall, terrorists do not have sociological dysfunctions. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The study defines suicide terrorism as “the targeted use of self-destructive men against a population of non-combatants (typically civilians), in order to effect political change” (Atran, 2003). The study uses the phrase "suicide terrorist” to refer to kamikased or human bombs (suicide terrorists); a voluntarist who gives his or her life to achieve a political objective (Barzin, 2010). Suicide terrorism is the only form of combat in which the attacker contemplates extreme actions in which he does not expect to survive the mission (Pape, 2005), and in which the chances of returning surviving are “close to zero” (Pedahzur, 2006). | Fekih-Romdhane, Feten, Leila Chennoufi, and Mejda Cheour. “Les terroristes suicidaires : qui sont-ils ?” Annales médico psychologiques 174, no. 4 (2016): 274–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2015.10.026 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | This study is a literature review surveying 41 academic and grey literature sources which analyse various aspects of suicide terrorism. | Two books and one study do not support this risk factor: Merari, Ariel. "The psychology of extremism." In Institute for Social Research seminar series, University of Michigan. 2002. Pape, Robert Anthony. Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism. Random House Trade Paperback Edition. New York: Random House Trade Paperbacks, 2005. Sageman M. Understanding terror networks. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsilvanya Press. 2004 |
| Depression | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Merari (2002) interviewed 15 suicide bombers intercepted moments before their attacks. In 53% of cases, suicide terrorists presented symptoms of depression and melancholy, and in 20% of cases, symptoms of PTSD. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The study defines suicide terrorism as “the targeted use of self-destructive men against a population of non-combatants (typically civilians), in order to effect political change” (Atran, 2003). The study uses the phrase "suicide terrorist” to refer to kamikased or human bombs (suicide terrorists); a voluntarist who gives his or her life to achieve a political objective (Barzin, 2010). Suicide terrorism is the only form of combat in which the attacker contemplates extreme actions in which he does not expect to survive the mission (Pape, 2005), and in which the chances of returning surviving are “close to zero” (Pedahzur, 2006). | Fekih-Romdhane, Feten, Leila Chennoufi, and Mejda Cheour. “Les terroristes suicidaires : qui sont-ils ?” Annales médico psychologiques 174, no. 4 (2016): 274–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2015.10.026 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | This study is a literature review surveying 41 academic and grey literature sources which analyse various aspects of suicide terrorism. | One presented study provides support for this risk factor: Merari, Ariel. "The psychology of extremism." In Institute for Social Research seminar series, University of Michigan. 2002. |
| Being suicidal | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The study defines suicide terrorism as “the targeted use of self-destructive men against a population of non-combatants (typically civilians), in order to effect political change” (Atran, 2003). The study uses the phrase "suicide terrorist” to refer to kamikased or human bombs (suicide terrorists); a voluntarist who gives his or her life to achieve a political objective (Barzin, 2010). Suicide terrorism is the only form of combat in which the attacker contemplates extreme actions in which he does not expect to survive the mission (Pape, 2005), and in which the chances of returning surviving are “close to zero” (Pedahzur, 2006). | Fekih-Romdhane, Feten, Leila Chennoufi, and Mejda Cheour. “Les terroristes suicidaires : qui sont-ils ?” Annales médico psychologiques 174, no. 4 (2016): 274–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2015.10.026 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | This study is a literature review surveying 41 academic and grey literature sources which analyse various aspects of suicide terrorism. | Three sources do not support this risk factor: Hassan, Nasra. "Letter from Gaza: An Arsenal of Believers." The New Yorker, November 19, 2001. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2001/11/19/an-arsenal-of-believers Hudson, Rex. The Sociology and Psychology of Terrorism Who Becomes a Terrorist and Why? Honolulu, HI: University Press of the Pacific. 2005 Post, Jerrold M, Ehud Sprinzak, and Laurita M Denny. “The Terrorists in Their Own Words: Interviews with 35 Incarcerated Middle Eastern Terrorists.” Terrorism and political violence 15, no. 1 (2003): 171–184.https://doi.org/10.1080/09546550312331293007 |
| Being suicidal | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | 40% of the kamikazes had shown suicidal symptoms (Merari, 2010) | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The study defines suicide terrorism as “the targeted use of self-destructive men against a population of non-combatants (typically civilians), in order to effect political change” (Atran, 2003). The study uses the phrase "suicide terrorist” to refer to kamikased or human bombs (suicide terrorists); a voluntarist who gives his or her life to achieve a political objective (Barzin, 2010). Suicide terrorism is the only form of combat in which the attacker contemplates extreme actions in which he does not expect to survive the mission (Pape, 2005), and in which the chances of returning surviving are “close to zero” (Pedahzur, 2006). | Fekih-Romdhane, Feten, Leila Chennoufi, and Mejda Cheour. “Les terroristes suicidaires : qui sont-ils ?” Annales médico psychologiques 174, no. 4 (2016): 274–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2015.10.026 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | This study is a literature review surveying 41 academic and grey literature sources which analyse various aspects of suicide terrorism. | Two studies provide support for this risk factor: Merari, Ariel. Driven to Death: Psychological and Social Aspects of Suicide Terrorism. New York: Oxford University Press, 2010. Okasha, Ahmed, and Tarek Okasha, 'Suicide and Islam', in Danuta Wasserman, and Camilla Wasserman, Oxford Textbook of Suicidology and Suicide Prevention, Oxford. 2009 https://doi.org/10.1093/med/9780198570059.003.0008 |
| Mental health difficulties which are defined in the core categories of disorder listed in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (version III (1980)–V (2013) and International Classification of Diseases (v. 10 & 11., World Health Organization WHO, 1992, 2019), including ADHD, alcohol, etc. | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | The presence of a disorder, as characterised in Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) or International Classification of Diseases (ICD). It cannot be reliably inferred from reports of symptoms present in open‐source data alone (e.g., press coverage of trials of suspected terrorist offenders). It requires careful assessment by a professional, often in collaboration with the individual being assessed, of the presence or absence of various criteria. | Our findings do not support the assertion that there are remarkably high rates of mental health difficulties in the terrorist population. As a benchmark, we estimate that the lifetime prevalence rate of diagnosed mental disorder in the general population is 29%. For objective 1 (Prevalence) we report that the lifetime prevalence rate of diagnosed mental disorder in terrorist samples was 17.4%. This increased to 23.2% for the studies reporting lifetime prevalence rates of suspected disorder, and 28.5% for studies reporting any psychological problems. The synthesis could reflect methodological limitations in the studies included. Many studies rely on the media and court reporting, with researchers wholly reliant on these sources to determine whether or not mental health difficulties are present. This could lead to under‐reporting (were such difficulties are not viewed as relevant to a criminal case for example) and thus deflate estimates reported in papers. That said, even among those papers that have not relied on open‐source information, the evidence does not conclusively demonstrate that terrorist samples are characterised by higher rates of mental disorders or psychological problems than those expected in the community. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The article says that while there is no universally accepted definition of terrorist behavior, there is at least some consensus that it refers to: (a) an act or campaign of actual or threatened violence that seeks to elicit the terror emotion in a target audience and; (b) with the intention of bringing about change in line with the world‐view of the terrorist. Terrorist behavior intends to cause harm, physical or otherwise. | Sarma, Kiran M, Sarah L Carthy, and Katie M Cox. “Mental Disorder, Psychological Problems and Terrorist Behaviour: A Systematic Review and Meta‐analysis.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1268-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1268 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | 56 papers reporting on 73 terrorist samples (studies) | Overall conclusion of the review article: "This review does not support the assertion that terrorist samples are characterised by higher rates of mental health difficulties than would be expected in the general population ... Trends in the data, however, may point to higher rates among some terrorist samples than others, and in particular among lone‐actor terrorists." |
| Mental disorder characterized by cognitive and emotional disturbances, abnormal behaviours, impaired functioning, or any combination of these. | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | The presence of a disorder, as characterised in Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) or International Classification of Diseases (ICD), cannot be reliably inferred from reports of symptoms present in open‐source data alone (e.g., press coverage of trials of suspected terrorist offenders). It requires careful assessment by a professional, often in collaboration with the individual being assessed, of the presence or absence of various criteria. | It is important to note that the dearth of studies drawing from comparative general populations is a major limitation in the literature as a whole. Studies comparing terrorist samples with other samples have relied primarily on serious criminals as a comparison group and, perhaps unsurprisingly, do not provide evidence that mental health difficulties are associated with terrorist involvement. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | France (Brosnard et al 2022); Iraq (Dhumad et al 2020) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The article says that while there is no universally accepted definition of terrorist behavior, there is at least some consensus that it refers to: (a) an act or campaign of actual or threatened violence that seeks to elicit the terror emotion in a target audience and; (b) with the intention of bringing about change in line with the world‐view of the terrorist. Terrorist behavior intends to cause harm, physical or otherwise. | Sarma, Kiran M, Sarah L Carthy, and Katie M Cox. “Mental Disorder, Psychological Problems and Terrorist Behaviour: A Systematic Review and Meta‐analysis.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1268-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1268 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 56 papers reporting on 73 terrorist samples (studies) | Two studies (Bronsard et al., 2022; Dhumad et al., 2020) provided data comparing current rates of mental disorder between terrorist and non‐terrorist samples, with results from each study suggesting that the odds of the terrorist samples having a mental disorder was lower than that of non‐terrorist offenders. Bronsard, Guillaume, David Cohen, Issaga Diallo, Hugues Pellerin, Aurélien Varnoux, Marc-Antoine Podlipski, Priscille Gerardin, Laurent Boyer, and Nicolas Campelo. “Adolescents Engaged in Radicalisation and Terrorism: A Dimensional and Categorical Assessment.” Frontiers in psychiatry 12 (2022): 774063–774063. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2021.774063 Dhumad, Saleh, Philip J Candilis, Sean D Cleary, Allen R Dyer, and Najat Khalifa. “Risk Factors for Terrorism: A Comparison of Family, Childhood, and Personality Risk Factors among Iraqi Terrorists, Murderers, and Controls.” Behavioral sciences of terrorism and political aggression 12, no. 1 (2020): 72–88. https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2019.1591481 |
| Conduct disorder in childhood | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Conduct disorder is a mental health condition that affects children and teens. People with this condition persistently display severely antisocial and aggressive behaviors | Features of childhood conduct disorder and anti-social personality disorder measured through interviews using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-V) criteria. | Dhumad et al. (2020) interviewed 160 terrorists incarcerated in a prison in Baghdad, Iraq, and assessed for features of childhood conduct disorder and anti‐social personality disorder (ASPD) based on DSM‐V criteria. Interviews were conducted ‘by researchers who received specific training in administering the study tool’ (p. 76). | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Iraq | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The article says that while there is no universally accepted definition of terrorist behavior, there is at least some consensus that it refers to: (a) an act or campaign of actual or threatened violence that seeks to elicit the terror emotion in a target audience and; (b) with the intention of bringing about change in line with the world‐view of the terrorist. Terrorist behavior intends to cause harm, physical or otherwise. | Sarma, Kiran M, Sarah L Carthy, and Katie M Cox. “Mental Disorder, Psychological Problems and Terrorist Behaviour: A Systematic Review and Meta‐analysis.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1268-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1268 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 56 papers reporting on 73 terrorist samples (studies) | One study compared a terrorist sample with a community sample (Dhumad et al., 2020). In that study, the terrorist sample had a greater odds of having had a conduct disorder in childhood but were there was no difference in the odds of meeting the diagnostic criteria for anti-social personality disorder. Dhumad, Saleh, Philip J Candilis, Sean D Cleary, Allen R Dyer, and Najat Khalifa. “Risk Factors for Terrorism: A Comparison of Family, Childhood, and Personality Risk Factors among Iraqi Terrorists, Murderers, and Controls.” Behavioral sciences of terrorism and political aggression 12, no. 1 (2020): 72–88. https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2019.1591481 |
| Female with pathological personality traits | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health, Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Mental health/illness, Female | Unspecified | Unspecified | The results show that psychopathology personality traits were prevalent. However, due to limited data, no conclusions can be drawn about prevalence rates and types of psychopathology in female perpetrators of terrorism and violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | Overall review |
| Female with personality disorders | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health, Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Mental health/illness, Female | Unspecified | Unspecified | The results show that personality disorders were prevalent. However, due to limited data, no conclusions can be drawn about prevalence rates and types of psychopathology in female perpetrators of terrorism and violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | Overall review |
| Female with suicidality | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health, Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Mental health/illness, Female | Unspecified | Unspecified | The results show that suicidality were prevalent. However, due to limited data, no conclusions can be drawn about prevalence rates and types of psychopathology in female perpetrators of terrorism and violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | Overall review |
| Past military service | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Military service | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a statistically significant meta-analysis result, but showed a large effect | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a moderate effect size for this risk factor |
| Current military service | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Military service | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a statistically significant meta-analysis result, but showed a large effect | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a moderate effect size for this risk factor |
| Receiving positive parenting behavior | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Parenting skills | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article, systematically reviewing five articles, is referenced in support: Lösel, Friedrich, Sonja King, Doris Bender, and Irina Jugl. "Protective Factors Against Extremism and Violent Radicalization: A Systematic Review of Research." International Journal of Developmental Science 12, no. 1–2 (2018): 89–102. http://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-170241 |
| Higher parental involvement | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Parenting skills | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One review study is referenced in support; Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "A Field-Wide Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Putative Risk and Protective Factors for Radicalization Outcomes." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 36, no. 3 (2020): 407–447. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-019-09439-4 |
| Receiving negative parenting | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Parenting skills | Unspecified | Unspecified | Based on 6 studies and 12 effect sizes, they found that the relationship between negative parenting and radicalization was not statistically significant. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One review article is referenced, which does not find a statistically significant relationship Emmelkamp, Julie, Jessica J. Asscher, Inge B. Wissink, and Geert Jan J. M. Stams. "Risk Factors for (Violent) Radicalization in Juveniles: A Multilevel Meta-Analysis." Aggression and Violent Behavior 55 (2020): 101489. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2020.101489 |
| Being praised by parents | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Parenting skills | Unspecified | Parental care measured with six sub-indicators, including "mother/father praised me when I did something well." | This study showed a significant relationship between parental praise and lower violent extremist behavior amongst 9th graders. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Adults, Youth | No differentiation | Germany | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article is referenced in support: Baier, Dirk, Patrik Manzoni, and Marie Christine Bergmann. "Einflussfaktoren des politischen Extremismus im Jugendalter—Rechtsextremismus, Linksextremismus und islamischer Extremismus im Vergleich." Monatsschrift für Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform 99, no. 3 (2016): 171–198. http://doi.org/10.1515/mks-2016-990529 |
| Parents overly control child's behaviour and shape it according to a set standard | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Parenting skills | Unspecified | Unspecified | This study did not show a significant effect between parents overly controlling a child's behaviour and shaping it according to a set standard and violent extremist behavior. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Adults | No differentiation | Iraq | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article is referenced, which did not find a significant effect: Dhumad, Saleh, Philip J. Candilis, Sean D. Cleary, Allen R. Dyer, and Najat Khalifa. "Risk Factors for Terrorism: A Comparison of Family, Childhood, and Personality Risk Factors Among Iraqi Terrorists, Murderers, and Controls." Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression 12, no. 1 (2020): 72–88. https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2019.1591481 |
| Receiving appreciative/positive parenting behavior | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Parenting skills | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Youth, Children | No differentiation | Germany | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article analyzes how radicalization may lead to violent behavioral outcomes, which the authors define as "violent extremist behavior against persons and property" | Lösel, Friedrich, Sonja King, Doris Bender, and Irina Jugl. "Protective Factors Against Extremism and Violent Radicalization: A Systematic Review of Research." International Journal of Developmental Science 12, no. 1-2 (2018): 89-102. https://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-170241 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | 17 reports containing 21 analyses that specifically addressed potential protective effects and provided quantitative data. 11 analyses addressed protective factors against religious/ethnic extremism. Five analyses investigated protective factors against far-right extremism, two far-left, one nationalist/separatist, and two mixed orientation. | One study was analyzed and the author's reported the effect as a main finding: People who were raised by appreciative parents are less prone to left-wing extremism and religious / ethnic extremism. Baier, Dirk, Patrik Manzoni, and Marie Christine Bergmann. "Einflussfaktoren des politischen Extremismus im Jugendalter: Rechtsextremismus, Linksextremismus und islamischer Extremismus im Vergleich." Monatsschrift für Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform 99 (2016): 171–198. http://doi.org/10.1515/mks-2016-990529 |
| Parental bonds | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Parenting skills | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | The review mentions three articles as support for several risk or protective factors; Leuprecht, Christian, Todd Hataley, Sophia Moskalenko, and Clark McCauley. "Containing the Narrative: Strategy and Tactics in Countering the Storyline of Global Jihad." Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism 5, no. 1 (2010): 42–57. https://doi.org/10.1080/18335300.2010.9686940 McCauley, Clark, and Sophia Moskalenko. "Mechanisms of Political Radicalization: Pathways Toward Terrorism." Terrorism and Political Violence 20, no. 3 (2008): 415–433. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546550802073367 Moskalenko, Sophia, y Clark McCauley. Radicalization to Terrorism: What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford University Press, 2020. |
| Higher parental involvement | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Parenting skills | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a very small effect size for this protective factor |
| Perceived lack of parental involvement | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Parenting skills | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Africa | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | One article is cited in support: Ojielo, Ozonnia. "Journey to extremism in Africa: drivers, incentives and the tipping point for recruitment." United Nations Development Programme Regional Bureau for Africa. (2017) |
| Parental abandonment | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Parenting skills, (Dys)functional family dynamics | Unspecified | Unspecified | Studies show rates between 36% and 82% parental abandonment | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | Two articles are cited in support: Oppetit, Alice, Nicolas Campelo, Laura Bouzar, Hugues Pellerin, Serge Hefez, Guillaume Bronsard, Dounia Bouzar, and David Cohen. “Do Radicalized Minors Have Different Social and Psychological Profiles From Radicalized Adults?” Frontiers in psychiatry 10 (2019): 644–644. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00644 Simi, Pete, Karyn Sporer, and Bryan F Bubolz. “Narratives of Childhood Adversity and Adolescent Misconduct as Precursors to Violent Extremism: A Life-Course Criminological Approach.” The journal of research in crime and delinquency 53, no. 4 (2016): 536–563. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427815627312 |
| Rapid political ascent and expanding influence of a populist radical right | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Moments | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Political Surge | Rapid political ascent and expanding influence of a populist radical right increases societal tolerance and susceptibility to extremist ideas and actions and thus contributes to the rise of far-right and supremacist terrorism. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | United States and Europe | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Right-wing and supremacist terrorism. Atran defines supremacists as advocates "of the dominance of a group over others by right of natural superiority based on race or ethnicity". | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | One memo is cited in support: Rosner, Yoav. "The Populist Radical Right in Europe." Memo No. 175. Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel, 2018 |
| Being a large state | Static risk factor | Demographic, (Situational) Location | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Population density/size/growth | A variable measuring the size of the country, following the supposition that larger states provide more targets and more areas against which to launch suicide terrorist attack. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited, which does find support for this factor Wade, Sara Jackson, and Dan Reiter. “Does Democracy Matter? Regime Type and Suicide Terrorism.” The Journal of conflict resolution 51, no. 2 (2007): 329–348. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002706298137 |
| Countries with larger populations | Static risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Population density/size/growth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited in support: Gibson, Kyle. “The Roles of Operational Sex Ratio and Young-Old Ratio in Producing Suicide Attackers.” ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2011. |
| Being in the poorest settings | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites two articles: Berrebi, Claude. "Evidence About the Link Between Education, Poverty and Terrorism Among Palestinians." Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 13, no. 1 (2007): 18–53. https://doi.org/10.2202/1554-8597.1101 Russell, Charles A., and Bowman H. Miller. "Profile of a Terrorist." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 1, no. 1 (1977): 17–34. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576107708435394 |
| Being a welfare recipient | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a very small effect size for this risk factor |
| Poverty | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Unspecified | According to Krueger, only 13% of kamikazes lived in poverty, as opposed to a third of the general Palestinian population. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The study defines suicide terrorism as “the targeted use of self-destructive men against a population of non-combatants (typically civilians), in order to effect political change” (Atran, 2003). The study uses the phrase "suicide terrorist” to refer to kamikased or human bombs (suicide terrorists); a voluntarist who gives his or her life to achieve a political objective (Barzin, 2010). Suicide terrorism is the only form of combat in which the attacker contemplates extreme actions in which he does not expect to survive the mission (Pape, 2005), and in which the chances of returning surviving are “close to zero” (Pedahzur, 2006). | Fekih-Romdhane, Feten, Leila Chennoufi, and Mejda Cheour. “Les terroristes suicidaires : qui sont-ils ?” Annales médico psychologiques 174, no. 4 (2016): 274–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2015.10.026 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | This study is a literature review surveying 41 academic and grey literature sources which analyse various aspects of suicide terrorism. | Three sources show that poor economic conditions are not a risk factor for suicide terrorism: Alan, Krueger. “Economic Scene; Cash Rewards and Poverty Alone Do Not Explain Terrorism.” The New York Times, May 29, 2003. https://www.nytimes.com/2003/05/29/business/economic-scene-cash-rewards-and-poverty-alone-do-not-explain-terrorism.html. Krueger, Alan B., and Jitka Malečková. "Education, poverty and terrorism: Is there a causal connection?." Journal of Economic perspectives 17, no. 4 (2002): 119-144. https://doi.org/10.1257/089533003772034925 Sageman, Marc. Understanding Terror Networks. University of Pennsylvania Press, 2004. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt3fhfxz. |
| Poverty | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Benmelech et al. (2010) note that poor socio-economic conditions can drive the most educated individuals into terrorist attacks, allowing organizations to send the best qualified on terrorist missions to have an even higher impact: “Five of the most lethal suicide bombers possessed a higher education degree or were studying for one ..., younger and less educated suicide bombers were more likely to detonate their bombs too soon, get caught by the authorities or give in to doubt.” | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The study defines suicide terrorism as “the targeted use of self-destructive men against a population of non-combatants (typically civilians), in order to effect political change”(Atran, 2003). The study uses the phrase "suicide terrorist” to refer to kamikased or human bombs (suicide terrorists); a voluntarist who gives his or her life to achieve a political objective(Barzin, 2010). Suicide terrorism is the only form of combat in which the attacker contemplates extreme actions in which he does not expect to survive the mission (Pape, 2005), and in which the chances of returning surviving are “close to zero” (Pedahzur, 2006). | Fekih-Romdhane, Feten, Leila Chennoufi, and Mejda Cheour. “Les terroristes suicidaires : qui sont-ils ?” Annales médico psychologiques 174, no. 4 (2016): 274–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2015.10.026 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | This study is a literature review surveying 41 academic and grey literature sources which analyse various aspects of suicide terrorism. | One study provides support for this risk factor: Benmelech, Efraim and Claude Berrebi, Esteban F. Klor. "Economic Conditions and the Quality of Suicide Terrorism." NBER Working Papers 16320. National Bureau of Economic Research. 2010. doi.org/10.3386/w16320 |
| Poverty and low socioeconomic status | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation, Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth, Socioeconomic status | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites three articles as support for this risk factor; Bakker, Edwin. "Characteristics of Jihadi Terrorists in Europe (2001–2009)." In Jihadi Terrorism and the Radicalisation Challenge: European and American Experiences, edited by Rik Coolsaet, 131–144. Aldershot: Ashgate, 2011. Handler, J. S. "Socioeconomic Profile of an American Terrorist: 1960s and 1970s." Terrorism 13, no. 3 (1990): 195–213. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576109008435831 Ljujic, Valentina, Iris Versteegt, Frank Weerman, Frank Thijs, J. W. van Prooijen, F. el Bouk, and S. van de Weijer. "Testing a Threat Model of Terrorism: A Multi-Method Study About Socio-Economic and Psychological Influences on Terrorism Involvement in the Netherlands." In Understanding Recruitment to Organized Crime and Terrorism, edited by David Weisburd, Ernesto U. Savona, Boaz Hasisi, and Francesco Calderoni, 147–171. Cham: Springer, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36639-1_7 |
| Neglect or psychological abuse | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Psychological abuse | Unspecified | Unspecified | Studies show rates between 16.35% and 85.3% neglect or psychological abuse | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | Four articles are cited in support: Oppetit, Alice, Nicolas Campelo, Laura Bouzar, Hugues Pellerin, Serge Hefez, Guillaume Bronsard, Dounia Bouzar, and David Cohen. “Do Radicalized Minors Have Different Social and Psychological Profiles From Radicalized Adults?” Frontiers in psychiatry 10 (2019): 644–644. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00644 Simi, Pete, Karyn Sporer, and Bryan F Bubolz. “Narratives of Childhood Adversity and Adolescent Misconduct as Precursors to Violent Extremism: A Life-Course Criminological Approach.” The journal of research in crime and delinquency 53, no. 4 (2016): 536–563. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427815627312 Dhumad, Saleh, Philip J Candilis, Sean D Cleary, Allen R Dyer, and Najat Khalifa. “Risk Factors for Terrorism: A Comparison of Family, Childhood, and Personality Risk Factors among Iraqi Terrorists, Murderers, and Controls.” Behavioral sciences of terrorism and political aggression 12, no. 1 (2020): 72–88. https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2019.1591481 Bazex, Hélène, Michel Bénézech, and Jean-Yves Mensat. “Le miroir de la haine ». La prise en charge pénitentiaire de la radicalisation : analyse clinique et criminologique de 112 personnes placées sous main de justice.” Annales médico psychologiques 175, no. 3 (2017): 276–282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2017.01.009 |
| Radical attitudes and thinking | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Radicalization | Purely cognitive radicalization is not problematic per se, and radical beliefs are a part of any healthy democratic society, only becoming a problem if they are expressed through violent actions (Neumann, 2013). Radical violent behaviors are usually displayed only by a small number of radicalized individuals. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article and one report are referenced finding that radical attitudes do not necessarily predict radical behavior: Neumann, Peter. "The Trouble with Radicalization." International Affairs 89, no. 4 (2013): 873–893. http://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2346.12049 Schmid, Alex P. "Radicalisation, De-Radicalisation, Counter-Radicalisation: A Conceptual Discussion and Literature Review." The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism—The Hague, (2013) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/285546353_Radicalisation_De-Radicalisation_Counter-Radicalisation_A_Conceptual_Discussion_and_Literature_Review |
| Radical attitudes and thinking | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Radicalization | The review cites the "Staircase Theory" as an explanation for this risk factor; the staircase theory states that the process leading to terrorism is similar to a narrowing staircase were radical ideas appear before terrorist acts that occur “at the top of a building” (Moghaddam, 2005; p. 161) | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | Two articles are referenced in support: Schuurman, Bart, and Max Taylor. "Reconsidering Radicalization: Fanaticism and the Link Between Ideas and Violence." Perspectives on Terrorism 12, no. 1 (2018): 3–22. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26343743 Moghaddam, Fathali M. "The Staircase to Terrorism: A Psychological Exploration." American Psychologist 60, no. 2 (2005): 161–169. http://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.60.2.161 |
| Radical attitudes and intentions | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Radicalization | Unspecified | Unspecified | The evidence overwhelmingly indicates a strong inter‐correlation between radical attitudes and intentions (e.g., Feddes et al., 2015; Schbley, 2004), and between these cognitive outcomes with radical behaviors (e.g., Baier et al., 2016; Bélanger et al., 2014). | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Two studies are cited to support this risk factor: Baier, Dirk, Patrik Manzoni, and Marie Christine Bergmann. "Einflussfaktoren des politischen Extremismus im Jugendalter: Rechtsextremismus, Linksextremismus und islamischer Extremismus im Vergleich." Monatsschrift für Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform 99, no. 5 (2016): 171–198. https://doi.org/10.1515/mkr-2016-0302 Bélanger, Jocelyn J., Julie Caouette, Keren Sharvit, and Michelle Dugas. "The Psychology of Martyrdom: Making the Ultimate Sacrifice in the Name of a Cause." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 107, no. 3 (2014): 494–515. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0036855 |
| Having radical attitudes | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Radicalization | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites two articles as support for this risk factor; Grace, Emily. "Lex Talionis in the Twenty-First Century: Revenge Ideation and Terrorism." Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression 10, no. 3 (2018): 249–263. https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2018.1428660 Jensen, Michael A., Anita Atwell Seate, and Patrick A. James. "Radicalization to Violence: A Pathway Approach to Studying Extremism." Terrorism and Political Violence 32, no. 5 (2020): 1067–1090. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2018.1442330 |
| Cognitive radicalization | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Radicalization | Unspecified | Unspecified | Cognitive radicalization doesn't necessarily lead to behavioral radicalization: essentially, people can adopt radicalized worldviews without acting upon them | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | Four articles do not provide support for this risk factor: McCauley C, Moskalenko S. Mechanisms of political radicalization: pathways toward terrorism. Terror Political Violence. 2008; 20: 415–433.https://doi.org/10.1080/09546550802073367 Borum R. Radicalization into violent extremism I: a review of social science theories. J Strategy Secur. 2011; 4: 7–36. https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.4.4.1 Hafez MM, Mullins C. The radicalization puzzle: a theoretical synthesis of empirical approaches to homegrown extremism. Stud Confl Terror. 2015; 38: 958–975. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1051375 Khalil J, Horgan J, Zeuthen M. The Attitudes-Behaviors Corrective (ABC) model of violent extremism. Terror Political Violence. 2022; 34: 425–450. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2019.1699793 |
| Longer time radicalized (continuons factor, i.e. assumption that the time one has been radicalized might have an impact on their likeliness to be involved in terrorist violence) | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Radicalization | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Grievances during radicalization | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Radicalization | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Relative deprivation | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Relative deprivation | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Relative deprivation also has implications for other factors, such as identity and belonging, community, trust, and discrimination. The vicarious forms of relative deprivation can increase the salience of an individual's actual situation, or increase the degree to which they view themselves as being relatively deprived (McCauley & Moskalenko, 2008; Victoroff, 2005). This means that relative deprivation may also increase the degree to which an individual's identity becomes fused with that of a particular group, and detached from others (Abbas, 2005, 2007; Spalek & Imtoual, 2007; Spalek, 2007). | Does not specify | No differentiation | France | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Dartnell (1995) finds that it is difficult to assess how such relative deprivation affects radical behaviors directly. Dartnell, Michael Y. Action Directe: Ultra-Left Terrorism in France, 1979–1987. London: Frank Cass and Co., 1995. |
| Perceived deprivation | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Relative deprivation | Moghaddam's cited staircase approach (2005) explains how radicalization can end up in terrorism: the model portrays 6 different floors, and the pyramidal model culminates in terrorist acts. Perceived deprivation (Runciman, 1966) can be prevalent among some people on the ground floor, and those people are the most likely to move on to the higher floors in the model (i.e. the most likely to reach the terrorism level). Events related to relative deprivation are of special importance for justice seekers, for example when they perceive that they themselves -individual deprivation- or their own culture -group deprivation- are disadvantaged and deserve better. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The author of this review article defines terrorism as the engagement of individuals or groups in ideologically motivated violence or other destructive acts against persons, property, or the fabric of society. They cite this definition from the Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service. Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service "Animal Rights Extremism in the Netherlands: Fragmented but Growing." The Hague: Neth. Gen. Intell. Secur. Serv. (2009). | Van den Bos, Kees. "Unfairness and Radicalization." Annual Review of Psychology 71 (2020): 563–588. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050953 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Van den Bos, 2018 serves as an organizational framework for this article, the author doesn't specify what articles were used for the research. | Two references provide support for this risk factor: Moghaddam, Fathali M. "The Staircase to Terrorism: A Psychological Exploration." American Psychologist 60 (2005): 161–69. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.60.2.161 Runciman, W. G. Relative Deprivation and Social Justice: A Study of Attitudes to Social Inequality in Twentieth-Century England. London: Routledge/Kegan Paul, 1966. |
| Extreme perception of relative deprivation | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Relative deprivation | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The author of this review article defines terrorism as the engagement of individuals or groups in ideologically motivated violence or other destructive acts against persons, property, or the fabric of society. They cite this definition from the Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service. Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service "Animal Rights Extremism in the Netherlands: Fragmented but Growing." The Hague: Neth. Gen. Intell. Secur. Serv. (2009). | Van den Bos, Kees. "Unfairness and Radicalization." Annual Review of Psychology 71 (2020): 563–588. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050953 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Van den Bos, 2018 serves as an organizational framework for this article, the author doesn't specify what articles were used for the research. | Two references support this risk factor - Extreme perceptions of relative deprivation may lead to political violence and terrorism: Gurr, Ted Robert. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1970. Merton, Robert K. "Social Structure and Anomie." American Sociological Review 3 (1938): 672–82. https://doi.org/10.2307/2084686 |
| Repressing or co-opting subversive militants and securing borders | Static protective factor | (Security) Institutions | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Security sector strength/weakness | State-level factors such as repressing or co-opting subversive militants and securing borders can limit the spread of armed conflict from one country to another. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational, Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Jordan | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The article defines transnational jihadism as the following "Sunni Islamist militant movements leading a global armed struggle (jihad) with the goals of toppling regimes in the Muslim world that they regard as un-Islamic; and of deterring Western interference in Muslim affairs. The ultimate aim of this jihadism is the re-establishment of the Caliphate and the application of Islamic law" (Hegghammer, 2010 p.1-15). In the dataset created in this study, the authors consider acts of terrorism mostly as shootings and bombings (or plans for them) motivated by political and religious extremism in a country during peacetime, which falls well within what is considered terrorism by most scholars, regardless of how they define other aspects of it. | Nesser, Petter, and Henrik Gråtrud. “When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan.” Perspectives on politics 19, no. 2 (2021): 492–506. https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759271900389X | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A wide range of primary sources in Arabic and English gathered through online platforms and fieldwork, which allowed the authors to compile a novel dataset of jihadist attack activity in the kingdom of Jordan (from 1995 to 2018). While existing research on terrorism in Jordan and other non-Western countries tends only to examine launched attacks, the authors also included foiled terrorist plots to give a more accurate and comprehensive picture of the jihadist threat. | The authors (Nesser and Henrik, 2021) state the following: "Our analysis of what prevents jihadist spillover to Jordan suggests that most existing research has underestimated how state-level factors such as repressing or co-opting subversive militants and securing borders can limit the spread of armed conflict from one country to another." |
| Adoption of a proactive rather than reactive approach to counterterrorism policies, whether offensive or defensive | Dynamic protective factor | (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Security sector strength/weakness | Jordan created an intelligence unit known as the "Kings of Justice" assigned to "hunt down hostile terrorists" before they could enter Jordan, this move appears to have been highly efficient at decreasing the number of terrorist plots inside Jordan. | Variation in number of terrorist plots in Jordan comparing numbers when using a proactive approach and a reactive approach. | The number of terrorist plots decreased significantly from 11 in 2005 to three in 2006. | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Jordan | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The article defines transnational jihadism as the following "Sunni Islamist militant movements leading a global armed struggle (jihad) with the goals of toppling regimes in the Muslim world that they regard as un-Islamic; and of deterring Western interference in Muslim affairs. The ultimate aim of this jihadism is the re-establishment of the Caliphate and the application of Islamic law" (Hegghammer, 2010 p.1-15). In the dataset created in this study, the authors consider acts of terrorism mostly as shootings and bombings (or plans for them) motivated by political and religious extremism in a country during peacetime, which falls well within what is considered terrorism by most scholars, regardless of how they define other aspects of it. | Nesser, Petter, and Henrik Gråtrud. “When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan.” Perspectives on politics 19, no. 2 (2021): 492–506. https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759271900389X | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A wide range of primary sources in Arabic and English gathered through online platforms and fieldwork, which allowed the authors to compile a novel dataset of jihadist attack activity in the kingdom of Jordan (from 1995 to 2018). While existing research on terrorism in Jordan and other non-Western countries tends only to examine launched attacks, the authors also included foiled terrorist plots to give a more accurate and comprehensive picture of the jihadist threat. | A primary finding of the study: A turning point in Jordan’s approach towards transnational jihadism occurred after the 2005 Amman hotel bombings when the country adopted tougher security and legal measures to counter both jihadists in Jordan and those abroad. The tougher, proactive turn in counterterrorism was institutionalized and written in law. Nesser, Petter, and Henrik Gråtrud. “When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan.” Perspectives on politics 19, no. 2 (2021): 492–506. https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759271900389X |
| Increased border control between Iraq and Jordan and Syria and Jordan | Dynamic protective factor | (Security) Institutions | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Security sector strength/weakness | Border control prevents known terrorists from Iraq and Syria from entering Jordan and carrying out attacks. | Number of known terrorists crossing the border into Jordan. | The number of attacks has remained low because the security apparatus has managed to disrupt thirty-nine out of forty-five plots (87%) in the period. | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Jordan | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The article defines transnational jihadism as the following "Sunni Islamist militant movements leading a global armed struggle (jihad) with the goals of toppling regimes in the Muslim world that they regard as un-Islamic; and of deterring Western interference in Muslim affairs. The ultimate aim of this jihadism is the re-establishment of the Caliphate and the application of Islamic law" (Hegghammer, 2010 p.1-15). In the dataset created in this study, the authors consider acts of terrorism mostly as shootings and bombings (or plans for them) motivated by political and religious extremism in a country during peacetime, which falls well within what is considered terrorism by most scholars, regardless of how they define other aspects of it. | Nesser, Petter, and Henrik Gråtrud. “When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan.” Perspectives on politics 19, no. 2 (2021): 492–506. https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759271900389X | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A wide range of primary sources in Arabic and English gathered through online platforms and fieldwork, which allowed the authors to compile a novel dataset of jihadist attack activity in the kingdom of Jordan (from 1995 to 2018). While existing research on terrorism in Jordan and other non-Western countries tends only to examine launched attacks, the authors also included foiled terrorist plots to give a more accurate and comprehensive picture of the jihadist threat. | A primary finding of the study: As shown by our survey of terrorist plots, very few jihadist operators have made it from neighboring conflict zones in Syria and Iraq to Jordan to orchestrate attacks since 2014. However, IS followers in Jordan have plotted several attacks in the kingdom since then. Nesser, Petter, and Henrik Gråtrud. “When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan.” Perspectives on politics 19, no. 2 (2021): 492–506. https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759271900389X |
| A policy of calibrated repression which proactively toughens anti-jihadist measures when Jordan faces immediate threats but which also continues to use other strategies whenever possible | Dynamic protective factor | (Security) Institutions | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Security sector strength/weakness | Jordan's policy of calibrated repression allows the Jordanian security forces to be seen with more legitimacy by the population, additionally, the "strict but merciful authority figure" equilibrium it creates hinders people's capacity to partake in violent extremism. This “calibrated repression” is the main reason why the country has not witnessed a higher level of jihadist spillover. | Unspecified | The impact of such preventive measures on limiting spillover is hard to assess, as no data exist to indicate a causal link with the incidence of jihadist recruitment or the frequency of attacks. | Spillover | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Jordan | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The article defines transnational jihadism as the following "Sunni Islamist militant movements leading a global armed struggle (jihad) with the goals of toppling regimes in the Muslim world that they regard as un-Islamic; and of deterring Western interference in Muslim affairs. The ultimate aim of this jihadism is the re-establishment of the Caliphate and the application of Islamic law" (Hegghammer, 2010 p.1-15). In the dataset created in this study, the authors consider acts of terrorism mostly as shootings and bombings (or plans for them) motivated by political and religious extremism in a country during peacetime, which falls well within what is considered terrorism by most scholars, regardless of how they define other aspects of it. | Nesser, Petter, and Henrik Gråtrud. “When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan.” Perspectives on politics 19, no. 2 (2021): 492–506. https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759271900389X | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A wide range of primary sources in Arabic and English gathered through online platforms and fieldwork, which allowed the authors to compile a novel dataset of jihadist attack activity in the kingdom of Jordan (from 1995 to 2018). While existing research on terrorism in Jordan and other non-Western countries tends only to examine launched attacks, the authors also included foiled terrorist plots to give a more accurate and comprehensive picture of the jihadist threat. | A primary finding of the study: In reference to the Nesser and Gratrud study: This type of calibration, designed to take down threats but in a way that does not alienate the broader population, seems to be the state’s overall signature when dealing with subversive forces. Its calculus also translates into day-to-day practice: the security apparatus appears aware that it needs to be seen to act fairly, and seeks to behave accordingly. In line with this, the GID-controlled State Security Court often reduces by several years the prison sentences it hands down to young individuals to give “them a second chance in life.” The practice exemplifies how the Jordanian security apparatus seeks to present itself as an almost “paternal” force in public life: a strict but merciful authority figure that wants the best for all citizens but sometimes has no choice but to reprimand them. Nesser, Petter, and Henrik Gråtrud. “When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan.” Perspectives on politics 19, no. 2 (2021): 492–506. https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759271900389X |
| Being raised as a child in an extremist family | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Moreover, some structural factors such as unemployment relate to radicalization (Siedler, 2006) as these issues can potentially make it harder for families to be informal social control handlers. | Children | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article is referenced in support; A qualitative study based on interviews with violent extremists showed that children raised in extremist families are at higher risk of becoming violent extremists themselves. Schils, Nele, and Antoinette Verhage. "Understanding How and Why Young People Enter Radical or Violent Extremist Groups." International Journal of Conflict and Violence 11 (2017): 1–17. http://doi.org/10.4119/ijcv-3084 |
| Having significant others who do not use violence | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article, systematically reviewing five articles, is referenced in support: Lösel, Friedrich, Sonja King, Doris Bender, and Irina Jugl. "Protective Factors Against Extremism and Violent Radicalization: A Systematic Review of Research." International Journal of Developmental Science 12, no. 1–2 (2018): 89–102. http://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-170241 |
| Having radical family members | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One review study is referenced in support; Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "A Field-Wide Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Putative Risk and Protective Factors for Radicalization Outcomes." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 36, no. 3 (2020): 407–447. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-019-09439-4 |
| Having a spouse involved in a wider movement | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | This study showed a statistically significant effect between having a spouse involved in a wider movement and violent extremist behavior. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Adults | No differentiation | Lone‐actor terrorists who planned their attacks in the US, UK, Europe, or Australia. | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article is referenced in support; Clemmow, Caitlin, Sandy Schumann, Nadine L. Salman, and Paul Gill. "The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism." Journal of Forensic Sciences 65, no. 3 (2020): 865–881. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.14282 |
| Having a significant other not involved in violence | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Adults | No differentiation | United States of America | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article analyzes how radicalization may lead to violent behavioral outcomes, which the authors define as "violent extremist behavior against persons and property" | Lösel, Friedrich, Sonja King, Doris Bender, and Irina Jugl. "Protective Factors Against Extremism and Violent Radicalization: A Systematic Review of Research." International Journal of Developmental Science 12, no. 1-2 (2018): 89-102. https://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-170241 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | 17 reports containing 21 analyses that specifically addressed potential protective effects and provided quantitative data. 11 analyses addressed protective factors against religious/ethnic extremism. Five analyses investigated protective factors against far-right extremism, two far-left, one nationalist/separatist, and two mixed orientation. | One study was analyzed and the author's reported the effect as a main finding: People who were raised by appreciative parents are less prone to left-wing extremism and less prone to religious / ethnic extremism. Jasko, Katarzyna, Gary LaFree, and Arie W. Kruglanski. "Quest for Significance and Violent Extremism: The Case of Domestic Radicalization." Political Psychology 37, no. 6 (2016): 815–831. http://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12376 |
| Largely spontaneous social networking among supremacists | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | This online ecology enables the formation and interconnection of self-organized hate clusters in a global networking-of-networks highly resistant to policing and thus contribute to the rise of far-right and supremacist terrorism. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | United States and Europe | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Right-wing and supremacist terrorism. Atran defines supremacists as advocates "of the dominance of a group over others by right of natural superiority based on race or ethnicity". | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | One article is cited in support: Johnson, N. F, R Leahy, N. Johnson Restrepo, N Velasquez, M Zheng, P Manrique, and P Devkota. Hidden Resilience and Adaptive Dynamics of the Global Online Hate Ecology. Nature. Vol. 573. Nature Publishing Group, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1494-7 |
| Social pressure from less belligerent peers, if there is no attempt to discredit sacred values | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: Atran, Scott, and Robert Axelrod. “Reframing Sacred Values.” Negotiation journal 24, no. 3 (2008): 221–246. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1571-9979.2008.00182.x |
| Having peers support/involved in deviance, including radicalism | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a moderate effect size for this risk factor |
| Having family members with cognitive or behavioral radicalization | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Statistically significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a small effect size for this risk factor |
| Exposure to others who justify or use terrorism | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | no sufficient association | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | Three articles mention this risk factor: Bandura, Albert, and Richard H. Walters. Social learning theory. Vol. 1. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice hall, 1977. Akers, Ronald L., and Adam L. Silverman. "Toward a social learning model of violence and terrorism." In Violence, pp. 27-44. Routledge, 2014. Becker, Michael H. “When Extremists Become Violent: Examining the Association Between Social Control, Social Learning, and Engagement in Violent Extremism.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 44, no. 12 (2021): 1104–1124. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2019.1626093 |
| Desire for peer-approval or fear of expressing dissent | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | No sufficient association | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | Four articles do not provide support for this risk factor: Lofland J, Stark R. Becoming a world-saver: a theory of conversion to a deviant perspective. Am Sociol Rev. 1965; 30: 862–875. PMID: 5846307 Claessens D, De Ahna K. Das Milieu der Westberliner “scene” und die “Bewegung 2. Juni.” In: Von Baeyer-Katte W, Claessens D, Feger H, Neidhardt F, editors. Gruppenprozesse. Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag; 1982. pp. 20–181. Della Porta D. Recruitment processes in clandestine political organizations: Italian left-wing terrorism. In: Victoroff J, Kruglanski AW, editors. Psychology of terrorism: classic and contemporary insights. New York / Hove: Psychology Press; 2009. pp. 307–316. Malthaner S, Waldmann P. The radical milieu: conceptualizing the supportive social environment of terrorist groups. Stud Confl Terror. 2014; 37: 979–998. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2014. 962441 |
| The strength and extent of social ties to likeminded peers and others already involved in high-risk activism, or outright political violence | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | The strength and extent of social ties to likeminded peers and others already involved in high-risk activism, or outright political violence, are vital in shaping the likelihood that an individual will, or will not, move from ideological affinity with an extremist cause to actual participation | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Malthaner S. Radicalization: the evolution of an analytical paradigm. Arch eur sociol. 2017; 58: 369– 401. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003975617000182 |
| Being in a romantic relationship post radicalization-onset | Static protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy found that being involved in a romantic relationship post radicalization-onset was positively associated with non-involvement in terrorist violence. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article provides support for this protective factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Maintaining or increasing ones pro-social interpersonal ties post radicalization-onset | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study found that maintaining or increasing ones pro-social interpersonal ties post radicalization-onset was very significantly associated with non-involvement in terrorist violence. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article provides support for this protective factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Being in a romantic relationship before radicalization | Static protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Having family involved in extremism / terrorism | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Extremist role model before radicalization | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Jihadists leaving their home country to fight abroad because of their preference to fight abroad rather than at home | Static protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Social influence | A preference to fight abroad limits spillover into Jordan, and thus acts as a protective factor. | Number of Jordanians leaving Jordan to join jihadist organisations abroad / number of terrorist plots in Jordan after Jordanians have gone abroad to fight | Looking at the departure of Jordanian fighters and attack activity in Jordan, there are periods when foreign fighting temporarily may have limited the terrorist threat. In 2011, Jordan witnessed large-scale demonstrations calling for political change, in which jihadists took part. The situation became tense and culminated with mass arrests of jihadists (Abu Rumman and Shteiwi 2018, 25). When the conflict escalated in Syria, Jordanian authorities let many of these prisoners out on parole and permitted a significant number of jihadists to cross the border into Syria. This may have defused the confrontation between the jihadists and the Jordanian government, as the former saw what they considered a legitimate struggle just across the border. Were it not for the departure of Jordanian foreign fighters and the decision to let them leave, Jordanian authorities could have faced a higher threat at home from militants motivated to fight but deprived of a battlefield. Anecdotal evidence from the period after Jordan closed its borders in 2016 supports this claim (BBC 2016). Eight of the twenty-four plots in 2017‒2018 (33%) involved Jordanians who wanted to join IS in Syria, but were obstructed. When they realized (or were told by IS-operatives in Syria) that foreign fighting was no longer an option, they started plotting in Jordan. | Spillover | Transnational, Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Jordan | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The article defines transnational jihadism as the following "Sunni Islamist militant movements leading a global armed struggle (jihad) with the goals of toppling regimes in the Muslim world that they regard as un-Islamic; and of deterring Western interference in Muslim affairs. The ultimate aim of this jihadism is the re-establishment of the Caliphate and the application of Islamic law" (Hegghammer, 2010 p.1-15). In the dataset created in this study, the authors consider acts of terrorism mostly as shootings and bombings (or plans for them) motivated by political and religious extremism in a country during peacetime, which falls well within what is considered terrorism by most scholars, regardless of how they define other aspects of it. | Nesser, Petter, and Henrik Gråtrud. “When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan.” Perspectives on politics 19, no. 2 (2021): 492–506. https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759271900389X | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A wide range of primary sources in Arabic and English gathered through online platforms and fieldwork, which allowed the authors to compile a novel dataset of jihadist attack activity in the kingdom of Jordan (from 1995 to 2018). While existing research on terrorism in Jordan and other non-Western countries tends only to examine launched attacks, the authors also included foiled terrorist plots to give a more accurate and comprehensive picture of the jihadist threat. | A primary finding of the study: If a jihadist preference for foreign fighting was the main mechanism limiting spillover into Jordan, the level of terrorist plotting should theoretically decrease after militants depart for conflict zones. This is not the case. Looking at the historical pattern of plots in Jordan, we find that the number of plots has increased after Jordanians have gone abroad to fight. The highest level of plot activity was recorded in the mid-2000s when al-Zarqawi sent attack teams to Jordan (which involved Jordanian foreign fighters); and after the outbreak of conflict in Syria, when there was an exodus of fighters from Jordan to Syria and Iraq. Therefore, the departure of Jordanian jihadists to conflict zones has not lowered the level of terrorist plotting in Jordan. There seems to be a “boomerang” pattern at play: jihadists travel abroad to fight and then bring violence back home—either by returning to carry out attacks or by persuading friends and family in Jordan to plot attacks on behalf of groups such as IS (the so-called "Islamic State"). It could be argued that Jordanian authorities were able to exploit jihadists' preferences for foreign fighters: by allowing potential rebels to leave the country, the authorities managed to divert elements that could have posed a threat, well aware that fighters departing for Syria could return to Jordan and cause problems at home, the military and the security apparatus fortified its borders after vast numbers of potential threat actors had left Jordan. Nesser, Petter, and Henrik Gråtrud. “When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan.” Perspectives on politics 19, no. 2 (2021): 492–506. https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759271900389X |
| Having parents involved in crime | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence, (Dys)functional family dynamics | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Having been socialized into extremism by family / peers by age 13 | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging, Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence, Age | Unspecified | Unspecified | Schuurman and Carthy's study did not find evidence corroborating that this factor acts as either a risk or protective factor for violent extremism. | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Passive exposure to radical content online, and active engagement with other radicals over the internet | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging, (Technology) Multimedia | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence, Divisive/unifying narratives, Internet | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Two studies are cited to support this risk factor: Frissen, Thomas, Kevin Smets, and Leen d'Haenens. "On the Cumulative Role of Different Types of Media in the Radicalization Puzzle." In Radicalisation: A Marginal Phenomenon or a Mirror to Society?, edited by Noel Clycq, Christiane Timmerman, Dirk Vanheule, Rut Van Caudenberg, and Stiene Ravn, 153–192. Leuven: Leuven University Press, 2019. Pauwels, Lieven, and Nele Schils. "Differential Online Exposure to Extremist Content and Political Violence: Testing the Relative Strength of Social Learning and Competing Perspectives." Terrorism and Political Violence 28, no. 1 (2016): 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2013.876414 |
| Communicating in radical discussion forums | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence, Internet, Ideology | The move to discussion forums was a key innovation for radical groups as it not only provides a place for like‐minded individuals to communicate but for the curious to hear from the more well-versed and experienced. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review looked at individual‐level media effects on two outcomes of radicalization, cognitive and behavioral, with cognitive radicalization being limited to support, justification of, or a willingness/intention toward the use of radical violence in the name of a cause or ideology, and behavioral radicalization pertaining to the actual involvement in such violence. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Badi Hasisi, and David Weisburd. "What Are the Effects of Different Elements of Media on Radicalization Outcomes? A Systematic Review." Campbell Systematic Reviews 18, no. 2 (2022): e1244. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1244 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The review summarizes evidence from 4 experimental and 49 observational studies and synthesizes the effects of 23 media‐related risk factors across the two outcomes of cognitive and behavioral radicalization. | Discussion forums continue to be viewed as a media‐related risk factor for radicalization (Moskalenko et al., 2022). They are even central to some ideologies and movements, such as INCELS (involuntary celibates), which are guided by a deeply misogynistic ideology. While INCEL discussions groups have many thousands of members,high-profile attackers have often been found to have been highly active in their postings. Moskalenko, Sophia, José F. G. González, Nicole Kates, y Jonathan Morton. "Incel Ideology, Radicalization and Mental Health: A Survey Study." The Journal of Intelligence, Conflict, and Warfare 4, no. 3 (2022): 1–29. https://doi.org/10.21810/jicw.v4i3.3817 |
| Belonging to the middle or upper-middle class | Dynamic risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Socioeconomic status | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites two articles and one book as support for this risk factor; Berrebi, Claude. "Evidence About the Link Between Education, Poverty and Terrorism Among Palestinians." Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 13, no. 1 (2007): 18–53. https://doi.org/10.2202/1554-8597.1101 Russell, Charles A., and Bowman H. Miller. "Profile of a Terrorist." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 1, no. 1 (1977): 17–34. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576107708435394 Sageman, Marc. Leaderless Jihad: Terror Networks in the Twenty-First Century. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2008. |
| Socioeconomic hardship | Dynamic risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Socioeconomic status | Unspecified | Unspecified | no sufficient association | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article mentions this risk factor: Piazza, James A. “Poverty, Minority Economic Discrimination, and Domestic Terrorism.” Journal of peace research 48, no. 3 (2011): 339–353. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310397404 |
| Higher socio-economic status | Dynamic protective factor | Demographic, (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Socioeconomic status, Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Not a significant meta-analysis result | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The article focused on radicalization, which was defined as "the phenomenon of people embracing opinions, views and ideas which could [sic.] lead to acts of terrorism" The definition of "terrorism", however, was not clarified in the article | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | Meta-analysis results of 137 sizes from 127 quantitative studies show a very small effect size for this protective factor |
| Search for significance | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | “search for significance,” are motivations commonly found in studies of jihadis and their supporters as well as of militant followers of far-right populist and supremacist movements. Kruglanski, Arie W., Antonella Pierro, Laura Mannetti, and Elena De Grada. "Groups as Epistemic Providers: Need for Closure and the Unfolding of Group-Centrism." Psychological Review 113 (2006): 84–100. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.113.1.84 |
| Loss of significance | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites one article as support for this risk factor; Jasko, Katarzyna, Gary LaFree, and Arie Kruglanski. "Quest for Significance and Violent Extremism: The Case of Domestic Radicalization." Political Psychology 37, no. 6 (2016): 815–831. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12376 |
| Having a psychological need for status | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | In line with the Two Pyramid Model (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2017), the authors of this review focus on cognitive and behavioral outcomes of radicalization, where the latter includes subterroristic radical violence and terrorism. Subterroristic radical violence includes acts of violence against persons and property that is usually nonlethal and falls short of the law's definitions of terrorism. Terrorism includes serious acts of violence against persons, usually intended to inflict injury or death, or attempts to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure in the name of a cause or ideology. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Yael Litmanovitz, David Weisburd, and Badi Hasisi. "Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors." Campbell Systematic Reviews 17 (2021): e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 127 quantitative studies, containing 206 samples and 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors, of which 137 effect sizes and 33 factors related to radical behaviors. | This review cites two references as support for this risk factor; Clarke, Ronald V. G., and Graeme R. Newman. Outsmarting the Terrorists. Westport, CT: Greenwood Publishing Group, 2006. Lloyd, Monica, and Pamela Kleinot. "Pathways into Terrorism: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly." Psychoanalytic Psychotherapy 31, no. 4 (2017): 367–377. https://doi.org/10.1080/02668734.2017.1360380 |
| Disproportionate commitment to goal attainment | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | In the Kruglanski model, the reason for terrorist acts is a disproportionate commitment to goal attainment., which is realized by engaging in extreme behavior and by devaluating or forcefully suppressing alternative goals. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The author of this review article defines terrorism as the engagement of individuals or groups in ideologically motivated violence or other destructive acts against persons, property, or the fabric of society. They cite this definition from the Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service. Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service "Animal Rights Extremism in the Netherlands: Fragmented but Growing." The Hague: Neth. Gen. Intell. Secur. Serv. (2009). | Van den Bos, Kees. "Unfairness and Radicalization." Annual Review of Psychology 71 (2020): 563–588. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050953 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Van den Bos, 2018 serves as an organizational framework for this article, the author doesn't specify what articles were used for the research. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Kruglanski, Arie W., Michele J. Gelfand, Jean-Jacques Bélanger, Amanda Sheveland, Malkanthi Hetiarachchi, and Rohan Gunaratna. "The Psychology of Radicalization and Deradicalization: How Significance Quest Impacts Violent Extremism." Advances in Political Psychology 35 (2014): 69–93. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12163 |
| Thirst for significance | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | The author argues that all the various components of terrorism are implemented as a means of significance gain. Thus, a thirst for significance increases the risk of terrorism. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The author of this review article defines terrorism as the engagement of individuals or groups in ideologically motivated violence or other destructive acts against persons, property, or the fabric of society. They cite this definition from the Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service. Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service "Animal Rights Extremism in the Netherlands: Fragmented but Growing." The Hague: Neth. Gen. Intell. Secur. Serv. (2009). | Van den Bos, Kees. "Unfairness and Radicalization." Annual Review of Psychology 71 (2020): 563–588. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050953 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Van den Bos, 2018 serves as an organizational framework for this article, the author doesn't specify what articles were used for the research. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Kruglanski, Arie W., Michele J. Gelfand, Jean-Jacques Bélanger, Amanda Sheveland, Malkanthi Hetiarachchi, and Rohan Gunaratna. "The Psychology of Radicalization and Deradicalization: How Significance Quest Impacts Violent Extremism." Advances in Political Psychology 35 (2014): 69–93. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12163 |
| Devitalized communities emanating from failed states | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State, (RoL/Gov) Justice | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Strength rule of law/institutions | Failed states are one of the chief enabling conditions that are most liable to ignite people to breakout into violence. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: START. "Global Terrorism Database." Database. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, University of Maryland, College Park, 2020. |
| Fragile states | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Strength rule of law/institutions | The logic is that states with weak economies and institutions are more at risk because they have fewer means with which to fortify themselves against spillover. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Jordan | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The article defines transnational jihadism as the following "Sunni Islamist militant movements leading a global armed struggle (jihad) with the goals of toppling regimes in the Muslim world that they regard as un-Islamic; and of deterring Western interference in Muslim affairs. The ultimate aim of this jihadism is the re-establishment of the Caliphate and the application of Islamic law" (Hegghammer, 2010 p.1-15). In the dataset created in this study, the authors consider acts of terrorism mostly as shootings and bombings (or plans for them) motivated by political and religious extremism in a country during peacetime, which falls well within what is considered terrorism by most scholars, regardless of how they define other aspects of it. | Nesser, Petter, and Henrik Gråtrud. “When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan.” Perspectives on politics 19, no. 2 (2021): 492–506. https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759271900389X | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A wide range of primary sources in Arabic and English gathered through online platforms and fieldwork, which allowed the authors to compile a novel dataset of jihadist attack activity in the kingdom of Jordan (from 1995 to 2018). While existing research on terrorism in Jordan and other non-Western countries tends only to examine launched attacks, the authors also included foiled terrorist plots to give a more accurate and comprehensive picture of the jihadist threat. | One article and one book provide support for this risk factor: Salehyan, Idean, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. “Refugees and the Spread of Civil War.” International organization 60, no. 2 (2006): 335–366. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818306060103 Young, William, David Stebbins, Bryan A. Frederick, and Omar Al-Shahery. Spillover from the Conflict in Syria: An Assessment of the Factors That Aid and Impede the Spread of Violence. RAND Corporation, 2014. http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/j.ctt1287mhx. |
| Exposure to violent television and movies | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Television/Movies | Unspecified | Unspecified | A slew of meta-analyses have produced fairly consistent results showing that exposure to violent television (and movies) has a modest effect on violent cognitions and behaviors. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review looked at individual‐level media effects on two outcomes of radicalization, cognitive and behavioral, with cognitive radicalization being limited to support, justification of, or a willingness/intention toward the use of radical violence in the name of a cause or ideology, and behavioral radicalization pertaining to the actual involvement in such violence. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Badi Hasisi, and David Weisburd. "What Are the Effects of Different Elements of Media on Radicalization Outcomes? A Systematic Review." Campbell Systematic Reviews 18, no. 2 (2022): e1244. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1244 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The review summarizes evidence from 4 experimental and 49 observational studies and synthesizes the effects of 23 media‐related risk factors across the two outcomes of cognitive and behavioral radicalization. | Supported by: Comstock, George, Erica Scharrer, and Jack Powers. “The Contribution of Meta-Analysis to the Controversy over Television Violence and Aggression.” Media Violence and Children : A Complete Guide for Parents and Professionals, 2014. |
| Participating in family counseling | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Therapy | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article does not focus on armed violence directly, but rather on where the process of radicalization results in either radicalism, violent extremism, or terrorism. The authors distinguish between factors that influence "radicalization of opinion" and those that influence "radicalization of behavior," where only the latter may include armed violence. | Zych, Izabela, and Elena Nasaescu. “Is Radicalization a Family Issue? A Systematic Review of Family‐related Risk and Protective Factors, Consequences, and Interventions against Radicalization.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1266-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1266 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 33 quantitative studies with 89 primary effect sizes and 48 variables grouped in 14 factors. Among the included studies, 26 measured support for or expressed willingness to use violence to defend a cause (cognitive radicalization) whereas four measured an actual radical violent behavior (and several other studies were Unspecified). | One article is referenced with the authors stressing a need for additional research before conclusions can be made: "Despite some encouraging results, the effectiveness and impact of this intervention program against radicalization still needs to be quantitatively assessed." Koehler, Daniel. "Family Counselling as Prevention and Intervention Tool Against 'Foreign Fighters': The German 'Hayat' Program." Journal EXIT-Deutschland. Zeitschrift für Deradikalisierung und demokratische Kultur 3 (2013): 182–204. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344395571_Family_Counselling_as_Prevention_and_Intervention_Tool_Against_'Foreign_Fighters'The_German'Hayat'_Program |
| Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Trauma/resilience | Unspecified | Unspecified | Weenink (2015, 2019) found elevated levels of PTSD compared to the general population. | Recruitment, Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Netherlands | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | Two articles are referenced in support, Weenink (2015) found elevated levels of schizophrenia and psychosis compared with the general population. In a greatly expanded dataset, Weenink (2019) additionally found elevated levels of psychotic disorders and PTSD. Weenink, Anton W. "Behavioral problems and disorders among radicals in police files." Perspectives on terrorism 9, no. 2 (2015): 17-33. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26297357 Weenink, Anton W. "Adversity, criminality, and mental health problems in Jihadis in Dutch police files." Perspectives on Terrorism 13, no. 5 (2019): 130-142. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336855104_Adversity_Criminality_and_Mental_Health_Problems_in_Jihadis_in_Dutch_Police_Files |
| Traumatic experiences | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Trauma/resilience | Unspecified | Unspecified | Trauma comes in many forms and typically exceeds what is found in the general population (Simi et al, 2016). Studies have shown rates between: - 17.6% and 71.4% who experienced physical abuse (Dhumad et al., 2020; Oppetit et al.,2019; Simi et al., 2016; Bazex et al.,2017; Baron, 1997; Jasko et al., 2017), - 23% and 28.5% sexual abuse (Oppetit et al., 2019; Simi et al., 2016; Baron, 1997), - 16.35% and 85.3% neglect or psychological abuse (Oppetit et al., 2019; Dhumad et al.,2020; Simi et al., 2016; Bazex et al.,2017), - 36% and 82% parental abandonment (Simi et al., 2016; Oppetit et al., 2019), - 18.6% and 64% domestic or neighbourhood violence (Oppetit et al., 2019; Simi et al,2016; Bazex et al.,2017; Carmona Parra, 2012) | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Baron (1997) argues such instances of abuse lead to distrust of authority figures, increased time on the streets with (delinquent) peers, increases the likelihood of violence being accepted as a method of dispute management, decreases empathy and makes the victimization of others more likely. Kleinmann (2012) adds negative self-esteem and identity issues as further knock-on effects of experienced trauma amongst violent extremists. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | In terms of complex needs, the greatest variety, volume and quality of data exists on traumatic experiences prior to radicalization (Post, 2000; Stern, 2014; Jasko et al., 2017; Klausen et al., 2016; Speckhard and Ahkmedova, 2006)... Among these datasets, the authors conclude that trauma comes in many forms and typically exceeds what is found in the general population, citing Simi et al, (2016). Simi, Pete, Karyn Sporer, and Bryan F Bubolz. “Narratives of Childhood Adversity and Adolescent Misconduct as Precursors to Violent Extremism: A Life-Course Criminological Approach.” The journal of research in crime and delinquency 53, no. 4 (2016): 536–563. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427815627312 |
| Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Trauma/resilience | Unspecified | Unspecified | Merari (2002) interviewed 15 suicide bombers intercepted moments before their attacks. In 53% of cases, suicide terrorists presented symptoms of depression and melancholy, and in 20% of cases, symptoms of PTSD. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The study defines suicide terrorism as “the targeted use of self-destructive men against a population of non-combatants (typically civilians), in order to effect political change”. (Atran, 2003). The study uses the phrase "suicide terrorist” to refer to kamikased or human bombs (suicide terrorists); a voluntarist who gives his or her life to achieve a political objective. (Barzin, 2010). Suicide terrorism is the only form of combat in which the attacker contemplates extreme actions in which he does not expect to survive the mission (Pape, 2005), and in which the chances of returning surviving are “close to zero” (Pedahzur, 2006). | Fekih-Romdhane, Feten, Leila Chennoufi, and Mejda Cheour. “Les terroristes suicidaires : qui sont-ils ?” Annales médico psychologiques 174, no. 4 (2016): 274–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2015.10.026 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | This study is a literature review surveying 41 academic and grey literature sources which analyse various aspects of suicide terrorism. | One presented study provides support for this risk factor: Merari, Ariel. "The psychology of extremism." In Institute for Social Research seminar series, University of Michigan. 2002. |
| Restrictions to the stock of fighters resulting from rebel defeats in conflicts abroad | Static protective factor | (Security) Armed Groups | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Troop shortage | When facing defeat, the bulk of rebels and their foreign fighter partners tend to be met with imprisonment or death, hampering their ability to exit the conflict zone. This has the effect of reducing the numbers of fighters able to exit the conflict zone for pastures new. Furthermore, foreign fighters that do exit an unsuccessful conflict should be expected to represent a lower quality of fighter with fewer skills, and less training, and experience with a failed insurgency. Rebel defeats are expected, therefore, to reduce the stock of available and/or valuable militants for terror campaigns abroad. | Two variables/indicators that capture the presence of foreign fighers (FF) in civil conflicts: 1) Ongoing conflicts with FFs measured as a simple count of the number of civil conflicts ongoing that year that involved participation of FFs on the side of the rebels 2) Spatial lag: rebel defeat with FFs measured as a simple count of the number of civil conflicts that ended in rebel defeat with FFs and that are ongoing that year. | The main findings of the authors' statistical analysis corroborate this protective factor. This is noteworthy, given that the other explanatory factors included in their analysis (democracy, ongoing civil conflict etc.) are among the most robust predictors of terrorist violence in the literature. | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | The authors define terrorism as "the premeditated use or threat to use violence by individuals or subnational groups against noncombatants in order to obtain a political or social objective through the intimidation of a large audience beyond that of the immediate victims” (Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev 2011, 321). The authors note that their definition of terrorism does not include acts of terrorism committed by the government, focuses exclusively upon politically motivated acts, and involves attacks against civilians, officials, and/or noncombatants. | Braithwaite, Alex, and Tiffany S Chu. “Civil Conflicts Abroad, Foreign Fighters, and Terrorism at Home.” The Journal of conflict resolution 62, no. 8 (2018): 1636–1660. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717707304 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This quantitative study builds a dataset to examine the relationship between the number of terrorist attacks taking place every year in most countries, and several explanatory factors. The number of terrorist attacks per country/year include both domestic and transnational terrorist activities, and are drawn from Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev’s (2011) version of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). | The results of the authors' statistical analysis provide support for this risk factor. Braithwaite, Alex, and Tiffany S Chu. “Civil Conflicts Abroad, Foreign Fighters, and Terrorism at Home.” The Journal of conflict resolution 62, no. 8 (2018): 1636–1660. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717707304 |
| Type of education completed prior to radicalization | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Type of education | The criminological theory of “social control” postulates that individuals with pro-social ties to society, such as those gained through employment, educational commitments, or being in a relationship, are less likely to engage in criminal or delinquent behavior. | Unspecified | With regard to education, Schuurman and Carthy found that the type or level of education (e.g., primary, secondary, etc.) completed prior to radicalization was not significantly associated with future radicalization process outcomes. This tentatively suggests that the level or extent of education completed prior to education is unlikely to indicate whether radicalization will lead to involvement in terrorist violence | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe, North America, Oceania (United States, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorist violence. The authors define terrorism as the premeditated (threatened) use of deadly violence against civilians or non-combatants, intended principally as a means of violent communication, enabling perpetrators to draw attention to their cause, coerce opponents, and inspire potential adherents. (Schmid, 2011). | Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Multiple studies were used for the analysis, such as specialist collections of primary data on terrorists and extremists, such as the one maintained buy Oslo University's Centre for Research on Extremism (C-REX), reports by government agencies such as EUROPOL, and numerous journalistic accounts which allowed the authors to compile a database of 206 right-wing and jihadist extremists based in Europe, North America and Oceania. The study carried out on 206 individuals who radicalized to extremism: n=103 individuals were involved in the planning, preparation or perpetration of terrorist violence and n=103 who were not involved in terrorism but did radicalize to extremism, all make-up the "'(Non-)Involvement in Terrorist Violence'" (NITV) dataset. This dataset is used for the conclusions drawn by this article. | One article does not find support for this factor: Schuurman B, Carthy SL (2023) Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0292941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.Pone.0292941 |
| Vertical inequality (i.e. differences in resources or means between individuals or households) | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Vertical (in)equality | Unspecified | Vertical inequality measured by the GINI coefficient. | A regression analysis showed no significant effect on the risk of terrorism. | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Global dataset of more than 190 countries | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review article focuses on terrorism and civil war - the authors operationalize terrorism as the number of domestic terror attacks in a country year and civil war is conceptualized as the number of civil conflict deaths in a country year, with 25 deaths being the lower bound. Measures are taken from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s—Battle Related Deaths Dataset (Melander et al. 2016) | Cingranelli, David, Skip Mark, Mark Gibney, Peter Haschke, Reed Wood, and Daniel Arnon. "Human rights violations and violent internal conflict." Social Sciences 8, no. 2 (2019): 41. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | A single study where the authors conducted a quantitative analysis on the effect of various human rights violations on civil war and terrorism onset | Statistical finding of one article: Cingranelli, D., Mark, S., Gibney, M., Haschke, P., Wood, R., & Arnon, D. (2019). Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict. Social Sciences, 8(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020041 |
| Violent video games | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Video games | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | This review looked at individual‐level media effects on two outcomes of radicalization, cognitive and behavioral, with cognitive radicalization being limited to support, justification of, or a willingness/intention toward the use of radical violence in the name of a cause or ideology, and behavioral radicalization pertaining to the actual involvement in such violence. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Badi Hasisi, and David Weisburd. "What Are the Effects of Different Elements of Media on Radicalization Outcomes? A Systematic Review." Campbell Systematic Reviews 18, no. 2 (2022): e1244. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1244 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The review summarizes evidence from 4 experimental and 49 observational studies and synthesizes the effects of 23 media‐related risk factors across the two outcomes of cognitive and behavioral radicalization. | Supported by: Comstock, George, Elizabeth Scharrer, and Jennifer Powers. "The Contribution of Meta-Analysis to the Controversy Over Television Violence and Aggression." In Media Violence and Children: A Complete Guide for Parents and Professionals, edited by Douglas A. Gentile, 381–412. Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger/ABC-CLIO, 2014. Ferguson, Christopher J., Allen Copenhaver, and Patrick Markey. "Reexamining the Findings of the American Psychological Association's 2015 Task Force on Violent Media: A Meta-Analysis." Perspectives on Psychological Science 15, no. 6 (2020): 1423–1443. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691620927666 |
| Devitalized communities emanating from weakened or collapsed social structures | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Weak/strong social systems | Weakened or collapsed social structures are one of the chief enabling conditions that are most liable to ignite people to breakout into violence. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | The article references: START. "Global Terrorism Database." Database. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, University of Maryland, College Park, 2020. |
| Oil extraction leading to bad governance and state weakness (opportunity logic) | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Activity, (RoL/Gov) Justice | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Resources extraction/production, Strength rule of law/institutions | Inspired by economic theories on the “resource curse,” the article applies this concept to the functioning of the state, in order to explain why oil extraction leads to bad governance and state weakness. Rather than investing in tax collection and public good provision, resource abundant governments can take the shortcut of rent seeking. But this also means that their control of the state’s territory, especially in peripheral regions with inaccessible terrain, is weak, making uninformed and brutal counterinsurgency fighting more likely once insurgencies occur. | Gross domestic product per capita as a proxy to test the state weakness argument. Others have used bureaucratic state capacity as an indicator. | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Natural resources and state weakness | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic), Ethnic conflict | This review article centers on civil wars, which the authors define as armed combat within a sovereign state between an incumbent government and a nonstate challenger that claims full or partial sovereignty over the territory of the state. They note that civil wars therefore always concern an incompatibility in terms of political control. The authors categorize civil wars as "governmental" and "territorial." Following the conventions of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (N. P. Gleditsch et al. 2002, 619), they refer to governmental civil wars if the main objective of the challenger is full governmental control of the state. If the main goal of the rebels is to secede or to increase their influence over a part of the territory, the conflict is instead classified as a territorial civil war. | Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. "Dynamics and Logics of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 9 (2017): 1992–2016 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This is a narrative literature review that focuses on the most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in the early 2000s when the publication of prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge in the empirical research of civil war as a well-defined conceptual category. | The review references one article in support of risk factor Fear(2003), and lists more recent scholarship which the authors argue shows the "resource course" is less clear. Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." The American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534 Lujala, Päivi. "The Spoils of Nature: Armed Civil Conflict and Rebel Access to Natural Resources." Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 1 (2010): 15–28. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343309350015 Ross, Michael L. "What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?" Annual Review of Political Science 18 (2015): 239–59. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359 Paine, Jack. "Rethinking the ‘Resource Curse’: How Oil Wealth Prevents Center-Seeking Civil Wars." International Organization 70, no. 4 (2016): 727–61. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108776837 |
| Squalid conditions in refugee camps lead to the radicalization of a tiny minority of refugees | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation, Demographic | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) adequate housing, Demographic changes (incl. Migration/Forced diplacement) | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors define terrorism as "the premeditated use or threat to use violence by individuals or subnational groups against noncombatants in order to obtain a political or social objective through the intimidation of a large audience beyond that of the immediate victims” (Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev 2011, 321). The authors note that their definition of terrorism does not include acts of terrorism committed by the government, focuses exclusively upon politically motivated acts, and involves attacks against civilians, officials, and/or noncombatants. | Braithwaite, Alex, and Tiffany S Chu. “Civil Conflicts Abroad, Foreign Fighters, and Terrorism at Home.” The Journal of conflict resolution 62, no. 8 (2018): 1636–1660. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717707304 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This quantitative study builds a dataset to examine the relationship between the number of terrorist attacks taking place every year in most countries, and several explanatory factors. The number of terrorist attacks per country/year include both domestic and transnational terrorist activities, and are drawn from Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev’s (2011) version of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). | One article provides support for this risk factor: Milton, Daniel, Megan Spencer, and Michael Findley. “Radicalism of the Hopeless: Refugee Flows and Transnational Terrorism.” International interactions 39, no. 5 (2013): 621–645. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2013.834256 |
| Flows of fighters from conflict zones abroad | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Criminal/Violent history | The Soviet withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in 1988 left groups of Jihadis without a home. This first excess of fighters spawned the rise of Al Qaeda and a decade of terrorism leading up to 9/11. Also, Iraqi insurgents reinvented themselves as a new generation of global terrorists (Bergen and Reynolds 2005). | Unspecified | The article states that flows of fighters from Afghanistan and Iraq have contributed directly to the conduct of civil conflict and terrorist violence in Algeria, Bosnia, Chechnya, Egypt, and, most likely, elsewhere (Mendelsohn 2011). | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Algeria, Bosnia, Chechnya, Egypt, and, most likely, elsewhere (Mendelsohn 2011) | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors define terrorism as "the premeditated use or threat to use violence by individuals or subnational groups against noncombatants in order to obtain a political or social objective through the intimidation of a large audience beyond that of the immediate victims” (Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev 2011, 321). The authors note that their definition of terrorism does not include acts of terrorism committed by the government, focuses exclusively upon politically motivated acts, and involves attacks against civilians, officials, and/or noncombatants. | Braithwaite, Alex, and Tiffany S Chu. “Civil Conflicts Abroad, Foreign Fighters, and Terrorism at Home.” The Journal of conflict resolution 62, no. 8 (2018): 1636–1660. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717707304 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This quantitative study builds a dataset to examine the relationship between the number of terrorist attacks taking place every year in most countries, and several explanatory factors. The number of terrorist attacks per country/year include both domestic and transnational terrorist activities, and are drawn from Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev’s (2011) version of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). | Three articles are mentioned in support of this risk factor. However, the authors argue that little empirical research exists to demonstrate the validity of the generalized claim that levels of terrorism are related to the ready supply of FFs from conflict zones around the world. Watts, Clint. "Countering Terrorism from the Second Foreign Fighter Glut." Small Wars Journal 28, no. 12 (2009): 1–13. https://smallwarsjournal.com/2009/05/28/countering-terrorism-from-the-second-foreign-fighter-glut/ Bergen, Peter, and Alec Reynolds. "Blowback Revisited." Foreign Affairs 84, no. 6 (2005): 2–6. https://doi.org/10.2307/20031771 Mendelsohn, Barak. "Foreign Fighters—Recent Trends." Orbis 55, no. 2 (2011): 189–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orbis.2011.01.002 |
| Opportunities to improve economic well being through potential monetary incentives of being in an armed group | Static risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial incentive | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | This may be a particularly influential driver in conditions of chronic poverty, disruptions to schooling, and broader insecurity that are often typified in conflict-affected settings | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | One book is cited in support: Chen, Kai. Comparative Study of Child Soldiering on Myanmar-China Border: Evolutions, Challenges and Countermeasures. 2014th ed. Singapore: Springer Singapore Pte. Limited, 2014. |
| A need for vengeance | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Forgiveness/revenge | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Denov; Northern Uganda | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Two studies are cited, as the author identifies this as a common pathway for child recruitment: Chen, Kai. Comparative Study of Child Soldiering on Myanmar-China Border: Evolutions, Challenges and Countermeasures. 2014th ed. Singapore: Springer Singapore Pte. Limited, 2014. Özerdem, Alpaslan, and Sukanya Podder. “Disarming Youth Combatants: Mitigating Youth Radicalization and Violent Extremism.” Journal of Strategic Security 4, no. 4 (2011): 63–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.4.4.3 |
| Horizontal inequality | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Horizontal (in)equality | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | The conclusion and argument of this paper is related to Stewart (1998, 2000), who argues that ‘horizontal inequality’ causes civil conflict but that ‘vertical inequality’, as captured in the Gini coefficient, does not. Stewart also acknowledges that whether or not an ‘objectively’ unequal situation translates into conflict depends on factors including the strength of the state and the particularities of ideological conditions in a society. Generally, her conclusion is that less horizontal inequality reduces the scope for violent conflict. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | One article is cited as evidence that it is widely accepted that inequality can and does contribute to violent conflict, sparked by deep injustices and structural deficiencies that leave groups of people behind. Cramer, Christopher. “Does Inequality Cause Conflict?” Journal of international development 15, no. 4 (2003): 397–412. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.992 |
| Appealing ideology of a group | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Denov; Northern Uganda | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Two studies are cited, as the author identifies this as a common pathway for child recruitment: Chen, Kai. Comparative Study of Child Soldiering on Myanmar-China Border: Evolutions, Challenges and Countermeasures. 2014th ed. Singapore: Springer Singapore Pte. Limited, 2014. Özerdem, Alpaslan, and Sukanya Podder. “Disarming Youth Combatants: Mitigating Youth Radicalization and Violent Extremism.” Journal of Strategic Security 4, no. 4 (2011): 63–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.4.4.3 |
| Family cohesion and positive parent-child relationships | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Parenting skills | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Four references are cited in support: Orpinas, Pamela, Ashley Ambrose, Matilde Maddaleno, Lauren Vulanovic, Martha Mejia, Betzabé Butrón, Gonzalo Sosa Gutierrez, and Ismael Soriano. “Lessons Learned in Evaluating the Familias Fuertes Program in Three Countries in Latin America.” Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública 36, no. 6 (2014): 383–390. Puffer, Eve S, Jeannie Annan, Amanda L Sim, Carmel Salhi, Theresa S Betancourt, and Robert K Hills. “The Impact of a Family Skills Training Intervention among Burmese Migrant Families in Thailand: A Randomized Controlled Trial.” PloS one 12, no. 3 (2017): e0172611–e0172611. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172611 Sriskandarajah, Vathsalan, Frank Neuner, and Claudia Catani. “Parental Care Protects Traumatized Sri Lankan Children from Internalizing Behavior Problems.” BMC Psychiatry 15, no. 1 (2015): 203–203. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12888-015-0583-x Poretti, Michele. “Preventing Children from Joining Armed Groups.” Refugee Survey Quarterly 27, no. 4 (2008): 123–141. |
| Radicalized individuals travel as refugees | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, Demographic | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Radicalization, Demographic changes (incl. Migration/Forced diplacement) | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Spillover | Transnational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | The authors define terrorism as "the premeditated use or threat to use violence by individuals or subnational groups against noncombatants in order to obtain a political or social objective through the intimidation of a large audience beyond that of the immediate victims” (Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev 2011, 321). The authors note that their definition of terrorism does not include acts of terrorism committed by the government, focuses exclusively upon politically motivated acts, and involves attacks against civilians, officials, and/or noncombatants. | Braithwaite, Alex, and Tiffany S Chu. “Civil Conflicts Abroad, Foreign Fighters, and Terrorism at Home.” The Journal of conflict resolution 62, no. 8 (2018): 1636–1660. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717707304 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | This quantitative study builds a dataset to examine the relationship between the number of terrorist attacks taking place every year in most countries, and several explanatory factors. The number of terrorist attacks per country/year include both domestic and transnational terrorist activities, and are drawn from Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev’s (2011) version of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). | Two articles refute this risk factor, these are: Milton, Daniel, Megan Spencer, and Michael Findley. “Radicalism of the Hopeless: Refugee Flows and Transnational Terrorism.” International interactions 39, no. 5 (2013): 621–645. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2013.834256 Choi, Seung-Whan, and Idean Salehyan. “No Good Deed Goes Unpunished: Refugees, Humanitarian Aid, and Terrorism.” Conflict management and peace science 30, no. 1 (2013): 53–75.https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894212456951 |
| Relative deprivation — or the gap between what people think they deserve, based on what they see others have, and what they expect to get | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Relative deprivation | Relative deprivation leads to frustration and increases the chances of rebellion, even when people can meet their basic needs | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Agbiboa (2013); Nigeria Agbiboa (2014); Nigeria | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | One book and two articles are cited in support: Gurr, Ted Robert. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1970. Agbiboa, Daniel Egiegba. “Boko-Haram and the Global Jihad: ‘Do Not Think Jihad Is Over. Rather Jihad Has Just Begun.’” Australian journal of international affairs 68, no. 4 (2014): 400–417. https://doi.org/10.1080/10357718.2014.891564 Agbiboa, Daniel Egiegba. “Why Boko Haram Exists:The Relative Deprivation Perspective.” African conflict and peacebuilding review 3, no. 1 (2013): 144–157. https://doi.org/10.2979/africonfpeacrevi.3.1.144 |
| The ‘guarantee’ or provision of safety or security provided by alignment with armed groups | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic), Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This study focuses on ‘voluntary’ recruitment of children to armed groups. While the authors do not define "armed groups," their study centered on groups in two specific countries: The first is the Central African Republic (CAR), which includes three non-state groups recruiting children: Antibalaka, former Séléka coalition and associated groups, and the Lord’s Resistance Army. The second is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the authors note 14 armed actors are committing grave violations against children, including armed groups such as the Mai Mai rebel groups in North Kivu. | Blackwell, Alexandra H, Yvonne Agengo, Daniel Ozoukou, Julia Ulrike Wendt, Alice Nigane, Paradis Goana, Bertin Kanani, Kathryn Falb, and Marie A Brault. “Drivers of ‘voluntary’ Recruitment and Challenges for Families with Adolescents Engaged with Armed Groups: Qualitative Insights from Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.” PLOS global public health 3, no. 5 (2023): e0001265–e0001265. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001265 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | Qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with 74 adolescents (44 boys and 30 girls) ages 14 to 20 years and 39 caregivers (18 men and 21 women) ages 32 to 66 years in two distinct conflict settings: North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ouham-Pendé, Central African Republic. | Two studies are cited in support: Denov, Myriam. “Girl Soldiers and Human Rights: Lessons from Angola, Mozambique, Sierra Leone and Northern Uganda.” The International Journal of Human Rights 12, no. 5 (2008): 813–836. https://doi.org/10.1080/13642980802396903 Hall, Erica. "No Choice: It takes a world to end the use of child soldiers." World Vis Int (2019). |
| Being mentally ill or psychopathic | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (generic), Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | Five articles are cited which do not find support for this risk factor, including two focused on suicide bombers. Horgan, John. "The search for the terrorist personality." In Terrorists, Victims, and Society:Psychological Perspectives on Terrorism and Its Consequences by Andrew Silke. Wiley, 2003. Ruby, Charles L. “Are Terrorists Mentally Deranged?” Analyses of social issues and public policy 2, no. 1 (2002): 15–26. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1530-2415.2002.00022.x Silke, Andrew. “Cheshire-Cat Logic: The Recurring Theme of Terrorist Abnormality in Psychological Research.” Psychology, crime & law 4, no. 1 (1998): 51–69. https://doi.org/10.1080/1068316980840174 Bloom, Mia. “Chasing Butterflies and Rainbows: A Critique of Kruglanski et al.’s ‘Fully Committed: Suicide Bombers’ Motivation and the Quest for Personal Significance.’” Political psychology 30, no. 3 (2009): 387–395 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2009.00703.x Merari, Ariel, Ilan Diamant, Arie Bibi, Yoav Broshi, and Giora Zakin. “Personality Characteristics of ‘Self Martyrs’/"Suicide Bombers" and Organizers of Suicide Attacks.” Terrorism and political violence 22, no. 1 (2010): 87–101. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546550903409312 |
| Nationalistic/religious motivation stemming from a desire to sacrifice themselves in light of conflict events | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Absence of) conflict events | Unspecified | Unspecified | Half of the 62 perpetrators of lone-actor vehicle attacks in Israel and the West Bank had declared nationalistic/religious motivation stemming from a desire to sacrifice themselves in light of conflict events. | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Israel and the West Bank | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article: Perry, Simon, Badi Hasisi, and Gali Perry. "Who Is the Lone Terrorist? A Study of Vehicle-Borne Attackers in Israel and the West Bank." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 41, no. 11 (2018): 899–913. http://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2017.1348101 |
| A history of negative childhood experiences | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | (Dys)functional family dynamics | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | The articles cited, according to the review authors, "tentatively propose that these offenders may have a similar history" of negative childhood experiences. Lindekilde, Lasse, Stefan Malthaner, and Fionnuala O’Connor. "Peripheral and Embedded: Relational Patterns of Lone-Actor Terrorist Radicalization." Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict 12, no. 1 (2019): 20–41. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2018.1551557 White, Stephen G. "Case Study: The Isla Vista Campus Community Mass Murder." Journal of Threat Assessment and Management 4, no. 1 (2017): 20–47. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000078 |
| Troubled childhood, including being repeatedly harassed, bullied, or abused as a child, witnessing abuse, growing up in dysfunctional families, and growing up in conflict-ridden refugee camps | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience, Demographic | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Dys)functional family dynamics, (Experiencing) bullying, (In)directly experienced violence/safety, Being a migrant/refugee/displaced | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | USA, Middle East | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | One study is cited, which found family problems and a troubled childhood were a common characteristic between rampage shooters in the U.S. and volunteer suicide bombers in the Middle East. Lankford, Adam and Nayab Hakim. "From Columbine to Palestine: A Comparative Analysis of Rampage Shooters in the United States and Volunteer Suicide Bombers in the Middle East." Aggression and Violent Behavior 16, no. 2 (2011): 98–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2010.12.006 |
| Social marginalization | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | USA | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | One study is cited, which found common characteristics between rampage shooters in the U.S. with volunteer suicide bombers in the Middle East. Lankford, Adam and Nayab Hakim. "From Columbine to Palestine: A Comparative Analysis of Rampage Shooters in the United States and Volunteer Suicide Bombers in the Middle East." Aggression and Violent Behavior 16, no. 2 (2011): 98–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2010.12.006 |
| Feeling isolated, alone, and not accepted into a group leading to the formulation of rigid ideology | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Relational | It was only when individuals found themselves isolated, alone and not accepted into a group, they formulated rigid ideologies, which took years to cultivate, to compensate. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article: Springer, Nathan R. "Patterns of radicalization identifying the markers and warning signs of domestic lone wolf terrorists in our midst." in Violent Behaviour – Select Analyses of Targeted Acts, Domestic Terrorists and Prevention Pathways (2009), ed. L. F. Strickland. New York: Nova Science Publishers. |
| Lone actors failing to affiliate with, or being rejected by, an extremist group | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Instances of lone actors failing to affiliate with, or being rejected by, an extremist group, leads them to experience more social isolation and to develop a belief system supportive of violence. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions two articles, Danzell, Orlandrew E., and Lisandra M. Maisonet Montañez. "Understanding the Lone Wolf Terror Phenomena: Assessing Current Profiles." Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression 8, no. 2 (2016): 135–159. https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2015.1070189 Malthaner, Stefan, and Lasse Lindekilde. "Analyzing Pathways of Lone-Actor Radicalization: A Relational Approach." In Constructions of Terrorism: An Interdisciplinary Approach to Research and Policy, edited by Michael Stohl, Richard Burchill, and Scott Howard Englund, 163–180. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2017. http://doi.org/10.1525/9780520967397-014 |
| Exclusion by extremist networks | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | The number of offenders being excluded varied greatly between data sources from 14% to 40% | Onset | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | The article references: FBI. "Lone Offender – A Study of Lone Offender Terrorism in the United States (1972-2015)." National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime, 2019. Meloy, J. Reid, and Paul Gill. "The Lone-Actor Terrorist and the TRAP-18." Journal of Threat Assessment and Management 3, no. 1 (2016): 37–52. http://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000061 |
| Failure with love, romance and/or sex | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | The article references: Meloy, J. Reid, Alasdair M. Goodwill, M. J. Meloy, Gwyn Amat, Maria Martinez, and Melinda Morgan. "Some TRAP-18 Indicators Discriminate Between Terrorist Attackers and Other Subjects of National Security Concern." Journal of Threat Assessment and Management 6, no. 2 (2019): 93–110. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000119 Meloy, J. Reid, and Paul Gill. "The Lone-Actor Terrorist and the TRAP-18." Journal of Threat Assessment and Management 3, no. 1 (2016): 37–52. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000061 |
| Interpersonal rejection in various settings | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Overall review | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | The overall review finds that interpersonal rejection in various settings is highly prevalent across different lone-actor types. Variance-based studies are based on descriptive statistics and hence do not examine the causal effect of rejection. And Sommer et al. (2014) argue that future studies must incorporate offenders' perception of being rejected to fully understand the role of social dynamics in lone-actor radicalization. In relation to this, a third limitation is lack of studies that take into account the dynamic interplay between different risk factors, probably due to the low number of case-based studies examining the causal process(es) of interpersonal rejection. |
| Societal isolation | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | The author of this review article defines terrorism as the engagement of individuals or groups in ideologically motivated violence or other destructive acts against persons, property, or the fabric of society. They cite this definition from the Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service. Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service "Animal Rights Extremism in the Netherlands: Fragmented but Growing." The Hague: Neth. Gen. Intell. Secur. Serv. (2009). | Van den Bos, Kees. "Unfairness and Radicalization." Annual Review of Psychology 71 (2020): 563–588. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050953 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Van den Bos, 2018 serves as an organizational framework for this article, the author doesn't specify what articles were used for the research. | One reference supports this risk factor, finding that societal isolation can create lone-wolf behavior. Van den Bos, K. Why People Radicalize. New York: Oxford University Press, 2018. |
| Digruntlements with sectors of the public, governments or social movements | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) trust in institutions, Political grievances/satisfaction | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article, with a sample of 120 lone-actor terrorists across Europe. Ellis, Clare, Raffaello Pantucci, Jeanine de Roy van Zuijdewijn, Edwin Bakker, Melanie Smith, Benoît Gomis, and Simon Palombi. “Analysing the Processes of Lone-Actor Terrorism: Research Findings.” Perspectives on terrorism. 10, no. 2 (2016): 33–41. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26297551 |
| Invalidations of ideal self-image regarding his childhood and adolescence | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience, (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Low) self-esteem, (Dys)functional family dynamics | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | Winter and Tschudi (2015) found that a lone-actor terrorist experienced several invalidations of ideal self-image regarding his childhood and adolescence. These ‘existential threats’ were externalized to socio-political structures, particularly multiculturalism-promoting political actors. By viewing traditional Western values as being submerged by ‘Islamization’ as the core threat to his existence, the reconstruction of himself as a “perfect knight” fighting a sup- pressing enemy became a driver of violence (Winter & Tschudi, 2015). | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | The review refers to one article Winter, David A., and Fredrik Tschudi. "Construing a 'Perfect Knight': A Personal Construct Investigation of Mass Murder." Journal of Constructivist Psychology 28, no. 2 (2015): 139–151. https://doi.org/10.1080/10720537.2013.846837 |
| High impulsivity and psychiatric disorder | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Individuals with high impulsivity and psychiatric disorder may be more susceptible to environmental influences such as radicalization. | High impulsivity and psychiatric disorder measured through interviews using diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) and International Classification of Diseases (ICD) criteria. | In the Clemmow et al (2020) study: The defining criterion for assigning the label “lone‐actor terrorist” to an individual was whether subjects carried out or planned to carry out, alone, an attack in service of some form of ideology, for which they were convicted or died in the attempt. The lone‐actor terrorists in our sample can operate with or without command‐and‐control links’ (p. 457). Moreover, ‘all individuals planned their attack in the United States, Europe, or Australia between 1990 and the end of 2015’ (p. 457). | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | US, Europe and Australia | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | The article says that while there is no universally accepted definition of terrorist behavior, there is at least some consensus that it refers to: (a) an act or campaign of actual or threatened violence that seeks to elicit the terror emotion in a target audience and; (b) with the intention of bringing about change in line with the world‐view of the terrorist. Terrorist behavior intends to cause harm, physical or otherwise. | Sarma, Kiran M, Sarah L Carthy, and Katie M Cox. “Mental Disorder, Psychological Problems and Terrorist Behaviour: A Systematic Review and Meta‐analysis.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1268-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1268 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 56 papers reporting on 73 terrorist samples (studies) | One study provides support for this risk factor: Clemmow, Caitlin, Sandy Schumann, Nadine L Salman, and Paul Gill. “The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism.” Journal of forensic sciences 65, no. 3 (2020): 865–881. https://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.14282 |
| Feelings of unhappiness | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Un)happiness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | The article refers to one study: Karen Jacques, and Paul J. Taylor. “Male and Female Suicide Bombers: Different Sexes, Different Reasons?” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 31 (4) (2008): 304–26. doi:10.1080/10576100801925695. |
| Easily accessible locations, familiar, located in close proximity to where attackers live | Dynamic risk factor | (Situational) Location | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Accessible location | Lone attackers compensate for their lack of resources by choosing easily accessible locations frequented by members of the public and security forces for their attack. The sites selected were familiar, and located in close proximity to were attackers lived or conducted their daily lives. Perry et al. also found that the fortification of potential targets, such as bus stations, by the authorities impacted opportunities. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Israel and Palestine | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The article mentions one study. Analyzing 62 run-over attacks in Israel and the West Bank, Perry, Hasisi and Perry found that lone-actor attacks were dictated by the immediate circumstances and directly shaped by the opportunity of the target. Perry, Simon, Badi Hasisi, and Gali Perry. "Lone Terrorists: A Study of Run-Over Attacks in Israel." European Journal of Criminology 16, no. 1 (2019): 102–123. http://doi.org/10.1177/1477370818769257 |
| Being under 50 years old | Static risk factor | Demographic | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | Being a male and under 50 years old | Adults, Children, Youth | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | Four articles are cited in support: Gill, Paul, John Horgan, and Paige Deckert. "Bombing Alone: Tracing the Motivations and Antecedent Behaviors of Lone-Actor Terrorists." Journal of Forensic Sciences 59, no. 2 (2014): 425–435. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.12312 Perry, Simon, Badi Hasisi, and Gali Perry. "Who Is the Lone Terrorist? A Study of Vehicle-Borne Attackers in Israel and the West Bank." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 41, no. 11 (2018): 899–913. http://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2017.1348101 Smith, Laura, Jeffrey Gruenewald, Brent Klein, and Steven Chermak. "The Emergence of Lone Wolf Terrorism: Patterns of Behavior and Implications for Intervention." Sociology of Crime, Law and Deviance 20 (2015): 89–110. http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/S1521-613620150000020005 Zeman, Tomaš, Jan Břeň, and Radek Urban. "Profile of a Lone Wolf Terrorist: A Crisis Management Perspective." Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues 8, no. 1 (2018): 5–18. https://journals.lka.lt/journal/jssi/article/1063/info |
| High level of resentment | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Anger/resentment | Unspecified | Unspecified | A significant predominance of negative emotions in general are found among lone-actor terrorists, particularly resentment and anger. | Onset | Individual | There is some indication of predominance of negative emotions among lone-actor terrorists, including high levels of resentment and anger, along with high levels of cognitive sophistication. However, the interplay between emotions and cognition in lone-actor terrorism is still not fully understood. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The article says "There is some indication of predominance" of this emotion and cites one article. Baele, Stephane J. "Lone-Actor's Terrorist Emotions and Cognition: An Evaluation Beyond Stereotype." Political Psychology 38, no. 3 (2017): 449-468. http://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12365 |
| High level of anger | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Anger/resentment | Unspecified | Unspecified | A significant predominance of negative emotions are generally found among a dataset of lone-actor terrorists, particularly resentment and anger. | Onset | Individual | There is some indication of predominance of negative emotions among lone-actor terrorists, including high levels of resentment and anger, along with high levels of cognitive sophistication. However, the interplay between emotions and cognition in lone-actor terrorism is still not fully understood. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The article says "There is some indication of predominance" of this emotion and cites one article. Baele, Stephane J. "Lone-Actor's Terrorist Emotions and Cognition: An Evaluation Beyond Stereotype." Political Psychology 38, no. 3 (2017): 449-468. http://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12365 |
| Personal grievances | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Anger/resentment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | Lone actors may at times react to political events as an excuse to deal with their own personal grievances. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Israel and the West Bank | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article, which proposed that lone actors may at times react to political events as an excuse to deal with their own personal grievances. Perry, Simon, Badi Hasisi, and Gali Perry. "Who Is the Lone Terrorist? A Study of Vehicle-Borne Attackers in Israel and the West Bank." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 41, no. 11 (2018): 899–913 http://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2017.1348101 |
| Manifested anger over specific events (personal or political) | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Anger/resentment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | no interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article, with a sample of 120 lone-actor terrorists across Europe. Ellis, Clare, Raffaello Pantucci, Jeanine de Roy van Zuijdewijn, Edwin Bakker, Melanie Smith, Benoît Gomis, and Simon Palombi. “Analysing the Processes of Lone-Actor Terrorism: Research Findings.” Perspectives on terrorism. 10, no. 2 (2016): 33–41. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26297551 |
| Unfortunate life circumstances coupled with an intensification of beliefs/grievances | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Anger/resentment, Major life event | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | The typical motivation to commit acts of violence by lone-actor terrorists stems from a combination of personal and ideological influences. Many lone-actor cases have been found to share a mixture of unfortunate life circumstances, coupled with an intensification of beliefs/grievances, which resulted in subsequent plans to engage in violent acts. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Overall review | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | Overall conclusion of the review. |
| An emotional worldview characterized by high resentment and extreme violence | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Approval/disapproval of violence, Anger/resentment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | Baele (2017) found that compared to the general population, lone-actor terrorists hold a particular emotional worldview characterized by a combination of high resentment and extreme anger. Baele, Stephane J. "Lone-Actor Terrorists’ Emotions and Cognition: An Evaluation beyond Stereotypes." Political Psychology 38, no. 3 (2017): 449–468. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12365 |
| Having socially unassertive traits | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Assertive/submissive | Unspecified | Unspecified | 25 lone-actor terrorists were included in this sample with socially unassertive traits.... They found that all offenders with socially unassertive traits committed acts of violence alone because they failed to enter an extremist network for different reasons. | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | The article references: Lindekilde, Lasse, Stefan Malthaner, and Fionnuala O’Connor. "Peripheral and Embedded: Relational Patterns of Lone-Actor Terrorist Radicalization." Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict 12, no. 1 (2019): 20–41. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2018.1551557 |
| High levels of cognitive sophistication | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Cognitive sophistication/rigidity | Unspecified | Unspecified | A significant predominance of negative emotions are generally found among a dataset of lone-actor terrorists, particularly resentment and anger. | Onset | Individual | There is some indication of predominance of negative emotions among lone-actor terrorists, including high levels of resentment and anger, along with high levels of cognitive sophistication. However, the interplay between emotions and cognition in lone-actor terrorism is still not fully understood. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The article says "There is some indication of predominance" of this emotion and cites one article. Baele, Stephane J. "Lone-Actor's Terrorist Emotions and Cognition: An Evaluation Beyond Stereotype." Political Psychology 38, no. 3 (2017): 449-468. http://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12365 |
| Appraisal of events through a prism of a complex worldview stemming from high cognitive sophistication | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Cognitive sophistication/rigidity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | The review refers to Baele, Stephane J. "Lone-Actor Terrorists’ Emotions and Cognition: An Evaluation beyond Stereotypes." Political Psychology 38, no. 3 (2017): 449–468. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12365 |
| Inclination for criminality and violence, with a violent past | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Criminal/Violent history | Unspecified | Inclination for criminality and violence: Unspecified. Violent past: Possessing criminal records. | Analyzed six lone-actor cases and found that five out of six, all who had committed attacks across Europe in 2016/17, had a violent past, with all six possessing a prior criminal record. | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The authors provide one example where lone-actors show an inclination for criminality and violence before the individual becomes radicalized. Khan, Khaled M., and Armstrong Nhlabatsi. "Identifying Common Behavioural Traits of Lone-Wolves in Recent Terrorist Attacks in Europe." International Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 11, no. 7 (2017): 1861–1865. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1131295 |
| Previous criminal convictions | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Criminal/Violent history | Unspecified | Possessing criminal convictions. | 41% of lone-actor cases were found to have previous criminal convictions | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review refers to one article: Gill, Paul, John Horgan, and Paige Deckert. "Bombing Alone: Tracing the Motivations and Antecedent Behaviors of Lone-Actor Terrorists." Journal of Forensic Sciences 59, no. 2 (2014): 425–435. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.12312 |
| Past violent convictions, along with problematic drug and alcohol use | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience, (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Criminal/Violent history, Drug abuse/moderation | Unspecified | Past violent convictions: Possessing past violent conviction records. Problematic drug and alcohol use: Unspecified. | From a population of fifty-two lone-attackers between 2012 and 2017, at least 75% had a history of chronic substance abuse. At least 57% t had criminal convictions for violence. | Onset | Individual | Past violent convictions interact with problematic drug and alcohol use | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review refers to one article: Herrington, Lewis. "Predicting and Preventing Radicalisation: An Alternative Approach to Suicide Terrorism in Europe." Intelligence and National Security 34, no. 4 (2019): 480–502. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2018.1560670 |
| History of substance abuse | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Drug abuse/moderation | Unspecified | Unspecified | The article fins that "a history of substance abuse was found to be present in 11 (22%) of lone-actor Jihadists and right-wing inspired terrorists." This prevalence rate refers to the sample used in the studies which only considers perpetrators of terrorism or violent extremism and does not compare with the general population. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | The article refers to one study: Paul Gill, Emily Corner, Amy McKee, Paul Hitchen, and Paul Betley. “What Do Closed Source Data Tell Us About Lone Actor Terrorist Behavior? A Research Note.” Terrorism and Political Violence 34 (1) (2019): 113–30. doi:10.1080/09546553.2019.1668781. |
| Being white | Static risk factor | Demographic | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ethnicity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | The article describes a profile for active shooters in the United States, including multiple risk factors which are measured independently: white males in their thirties with dysfunctional adult lives, either single or divorced, with lower levels of education and a history of mental illness | Adults | Male | USA | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review refers to one study on ideological and non-ideological shooter events in the U.S Capellan, Joel A. “Lone Wolf Terrorist or Deranged Shooter? A Study of Ideological Active Shooter Events in the United States, 1970-2014.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 38, no. 6 (2015): 395–413. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1008341 |
| Feeling of vulnerability and feeling victimized, while feeling blocked in reaching such goals through popular or legal routes. | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling of (in)justice | Radicalisation presents with core emotional drives, including a basic feeling of vulnerability, and feeling victimised; both emotions are conducive to the need of having more power and recognition, while feeling blocked in reaching these goals via popular or legal routes. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | England | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article in support: Lazzari, C., G. Mousailidis, A. Nusair, B. Papanna, and A. Shoka. "Psychiatric Assessment and Interventions in Radicalised Individuals: A Delphi Study of the ‘Lone-Wolf’Terrorism." Journal of Psychiatry Depression Anxiety 5 (2019). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340297019_Psychiatric_Assessment_and_Interventions_in_Radicalised_Individuals_A_Delphi_Study_of_the_'Lone-Wolf'_Terrorism |
| Exposure to group-based grievances | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Group identity | Lone actors communicate with others or become radicalized through exposure to group-based grievances. The review authors argue that if lone actors were totally isolated throughout the attack cycle, their activity could hardly be political and would therefore tail to meet definitions of terrorism. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article, Becker, Michael. "A Response to 'Key Issues and Research Agendas in Lone Wolf Terrorism.'" Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 39, no. 5 (2016): 472–476. http://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2016.1144946 |
| Ideology | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Of the 35 perpetrators in the sample, ideology seems to have played a substantial role in the majority of the violent acts. The violence of 63% (n = 22) of the perpetrators seems to have been direct action—that is, proactive violent acts directly aimed at perceived enemies. | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article using a sample of 35 lone-actor terrorists. Pitcavage, Mark. "Cerberus Unleashed: The Three Faces of the Lone Wolf Terrorist." American Behavioral Scientist 59, no. 13 (2015): 1655–1680. http://doi.org/10.1177/0002764215588817 |
| Religious devout all their lives | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article - a case study of five Islamist extremist lone-actor cases - which finds perpetrators were found not to have been religiously devout all their lives, and radical Islam was often used as a comfort after suffering personal grievances. Teich, Sarah. "Trends and Developments in Lone Wolf Terrorism in the Western World: An Analysis of Terrorist Attacks and Attempted Attacks by Islamic Extremists." (2013). Herzliya: International Institute for Counter-Terrorism. |
| Religion | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Extent of performing or observing religious activities following the doctrine of their religion. | Khan and Nhlabatsi found that none of the six Islamist exist lone actors in their study had examined, performed or observed religious activities. Some were involved in behaviors against the doctrine of their religion, including consuming alcohol, taking drugs and engaging in sexual encounters. | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article - a case study of six Islamist extremist lone-actor cases. Khan, Khaled M., and Armstrong Nhlabatsi. "Identifying Common Behavioural Traits of Lone-Wolves in Recent Terrorist Attacks in Europe." International Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 11, no. 7 (2017): 1861–1865. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1131295 |
| Extremist ideology | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | England | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one book chapter, focused on one lone actor's fatal attack on Jo Cox MP, to suggest that grievances of lone actors, while articulated in the language of an extremist ideology, are often rooted in non-ideological, wider social issues. Jackson, Paul. "The Murder of Jo Cox MP: A Case Study in Lone Actor Terrorism." In The New Authoritarianism, Vol. 2: A Risk Analysis of the European Alt-Right Phenomenon, edited by Alan Waring, 149–169. Stuttgart: Ibidem Press, 2019. Available at: https://pure.northampton.ac.uk/en/publications/the-murder-of-jo-cox-mp-a-case-study-in-lone-actor-terrorism |
| Combination of own personal vendettas and frustrations with religious or political grievances | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Psychosocial) Emotions | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Forgiveness/revenge | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | Lone actors frequently combine their own personal vendettas and frustrations with religious or political grievances. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article: Spaaij, Ramón. "The Enigma of Lone Wolf Terrorism: An Assessment." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 33, no. 9 (2010): 854–870. http://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2010.501426 |
| Projection of paranoid feelings onto the outside world with the help of a radical ideology | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | The article mentions one example, Tamerland Tsarnaev, one of the brothers involved in the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing, as an example of a terrorist with a mental disorder. | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Study focused on Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the Boston Bomber, who was a Russian-born American | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article that mentions one example "Tamerland Tsarnaev, one of the brothers involved in the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing, as an example of a terrorist with a mental disorder. Cotti, Patricia and J. Reid Meloy. "The Tamerlan Tsarnaev Case: The Nexus of Psychopathology and Ideology in a Lone Actor Terrorist." Journal of Threat Assessment and Management 6, no. 3–4 (2019): 138–158 http://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000120 |
| Ideology in combination with personal influences | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | The level of association between ideology and lone-wolf terrorism alone is weak. Whilst the motivations of lone actor terrorists are often articulated in the language of an extremist ideology, they appear to be often rooted in non-ideological, wider social issues. | Onset | Individual | The typical motivation to commit acts of violence by lone-actor terrorists stems from a combination of personal and ideological influences. Many lone-actor cases have been found to share a mixture of unfortunate life circumstances, coupled with an intensification of beliefs/grievances, which resulted in subsequent plans to engage in violent acts. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Overall review | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | Overall conclusion of the review |
| Being thrill seeking, impulsive and obsessive | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Impulse/self control, (Low) sensation seeking | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | The review refers to one article Bouhana, Nigel, Emma Corner, Paul Gill, and Bart Schuurman. "Background and Preparatory Behaviours of Right-Wing Extremist Lone Actors: A Comparative Study." Perspectives on Terrorism 12, no. 6 (2018): 150–163. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26544649 |
| Internet | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Internet | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | U.S | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article: Hamm, Mark S., and Ramón Spaaij. Lone Wolf Terrorism in America: Using Knowledge of Radicalization Pathways to Forge Prevention Strategies. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, 2015. https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/248691.pdf |
| Internet | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Internet | Internet and social media allow for the formation of digital "communities of belief." These are described as substitute networks that have partly replaced face-to-face contacts and provide lone actors with ideological frameworks, knowledge of tactics, equipment and targets, as well as a sense of being part of a vivid, supporting social community. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Netherlands | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article: Van Buuren, Jelle, and Beatrice de Graaf. "Hatred of the System: Menacing Loners and Autonomous Cells in the Netherlands." Terrorism and Political Violence 26, no. 1 (2014): 156–184. http://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2014.849932 |
| Internet | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Internet | The internet enables lone actors to become acquainted with extremist ideas, search for ideological texts, or establish contact with other co-ideologues, but plays a more limited role during the actual preparation of terrorist attacks. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article: Zeman, Tomáš, Jan Břeň, and Rudolf Urban. "Role of Internet in Lone Wolf Terrorism." Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues 7, no. 2 (2017): 185–192. https://journals.lka.lt/journal/jssi/article/1373/info |
| Internet | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Internet | The research found the internet played a particularly important role in reinforcing the perpetrator's own radical thoughts, ideas and beliefs to legitimise violent action, in disseminating propaganda, or when informing others of the imminent act of violence. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one book, Gill, Paul. Lone-Actor Terrorists: A Behavioural Analysis. Londres: Routledge, 2015. |
| Internet | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Internet | Unspecified | Unspecified | The article looks at five cases - the internet played a facilitative role in the radicalization in three and the bomb-making process in one. | Onset | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one document: Teich, Sarah. "Trends and Developments in Lone Wolf Terrorism in the Western World: An Analysis of Terrorist Attacks and Attempted Attacks by Islamic Extremists." Herzliya: International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, 2013 Available at: https://ict.org.il/UserFiles/Lone%20Wolf%20-%20Sarah%20Teich%20-%202013.pdf |
| Internet | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Internet | Unspecified | Unspecified | Out of 120 lone-actor cases from across Europe, 50% had conducted at least part or their engagement in a virtual online setting. Internet had been used for tactical knowledge acquisition in 33% of cases | Onset | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article, with a sample of 120 lone-actor terrorists across Europe. Ellis, Clare, Raffaello Pantucci, Jeanine de Roy van Zuijdewijn, Edwin Bakker, Melanie Smith, Benoît Gomis, and Simon Palombi. "Analysing the Processes of Lone-Actor Terrorism: Research Findings." Perspectives on Terrorism 10, no. 2 (2016): 33–41. https://pt.icct.nl/article/analysing-processes-lone-actor-terrorism-research-findings |
| Online platforms disseminating lone-actor tactics | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Internet | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article: Weimann, Gabriel. "Lone Wolves in Cyberspace." Journal of Terrorism Research 3, no. 2 (2012): 75–90. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282830024_Lone_Wolves_in_Cyberspace |
| Online consuming of propaganda | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Internet | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | 4 articles supported the factor: Böckler, Nina, Verena Leuschner, Andreas Zick, and Heiner Scheithauer. "Same but Different? Developmental Pathways to Demonstrative Targeted Attacks—Qualitative Case Analyses of Adolescent and Young Adult Perpetrators of Targeted School Attacks and Jihadi Terrorist Attacks in Germany." International Journal of Developmental Science 12, no. 1–2 (2018): 5–24. http://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-180255 Gill, Paul, John Horgan, and Paige Deckert. "Bombing Alone: Tracing the Motivations and Antecedent Behaviors of Lone-Actor Terrorists." Journal of Forensic Sciences 59, no. 2 (2014): 425–435. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.12312 Oksanen, Anu, Jari Nurmi, Mikko Vuori, and Petri Räsänen. "Jokela: The Social Roots of a School Shooting Tragedy in Finland." In School Shootings: International Research, Case Studies, and Concepts for Prevention, edited by Nina Böckler, Wilhelm Heitmeyer, Thomas Seeger, and Peter Sitzer, 189–215. Springer-Verlag, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5526-4_9 Gill, Paul, Emma Corner, Amy McKee, Peter Hitchen, and Paul Betley. "What Do Closed Source Data Tell Us About Lone Actor Terrorist Behavior? A Research Note." Terrorism and Political Violence 34, no. 1 (2019): 113–130. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2019.1668781 |
| Solitary online radicalization | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Internet, Radicalization | Research has indicated that the Internet has been used to support ideological or extremist debate, to advance the radicalization process, and engage in operational planning for lone actors. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | England | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article, focused on the case of Roshonara Choudhry "EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report 2011". Europol. Bruselas: Europol, 2011. |
| Internet as a way to reinforce radical thoughts, ideas and beliefs as a way to legitimize violent action | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Internet, Radicalization | Internet is particularly useful as a means by which lone actors can reinforce their own radical thoughts, ideas, and beliefs as a way of legitimizing violent action. The Internet is also increasingly seen as a crucial tool for intelligence gathering, tactical knowledge acquisition and attack planning. (...) Alongside this, the Internet appears to be providing a substitute network for lone actors, redefining what constitutes a social community given the general absence of face-to-face contacts. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Overall review | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | Overall conclusion of the review. |
| Online forums, chatrooms and social media applications used by terrorist groups to reach out to potential lone actors | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Internet, Social influence | Terrorist groups reach out to potential lone actors by seducing, teaching and encouraging them to launch attacks within online forums, chatrooms and social media applications. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Societal | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article: Weimann, Gabriel. "Lone Wolves in Cyberspace." Journal of Terrorism Research 3, no. 2 (2012): 75–90. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282830024_Lone_Wolves_in_Cyberspace |
| Having low levels of education | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Level of education | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | The article describes a profile for active shooters in the United States, including multiple risk factors which are measured independently: white males in their thirties with dysfunctional adult lives, either single or divorced, with lower levels of education and a history of mental illness | Adults | Male | USA | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 100 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review refers to one study on ideological and non-ideological shooter events in the U.S Capellan, Joel A. “Lone Wolf Terrorist or Deranged Shooter? A Study of Ideological Active Shooter Events in the United States, 1970-2014.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 38, no. 6 (2015): 395–413. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1008341 |
| Being a male | Static risk factor | Demographic | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Male | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | Being a male and under 50 years old | Adults, Youth, Children | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | Four articles are cited in support: Gill, Paul, John Horgan, and Paige Deckert. "Bombing Alone: Tracing the Motivations and Antecedent Behaviors of Lone-Actor Terrorists." Journal of Forensic Sciences 59, no. 2 (2014): 425–435. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.12312 Perry, Simon, Badi Hasisi, and Gali Perry. "Who Is the Lone Terrorist? A Study of Vehicle-Borne Attackers in Israel and the West Bank." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 41, no. 11 (2018): 899–913. http://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2017.1348101 Smith, Laura, Jeffrey Gruenewald, Brent Klein, and Steven Chermak. "The Emergence of Lone Wolf Terrorism: Patterns of Behavior and Implications for Intervention." Sociology of Crime, Law and Deviance 20 (2015): 89–110. http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/S1521-613620150000020005 Zeman, Tomaš, Jan Břeň, and Radek Urban. "Profile of a Lone Wolf Terrorist: A Crisis Management Perspective." Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues 8, no. 1 (2018): 5–18. https://journals.lka.lt/journal/jssi/article/1063/info |
| Being a male | Static risk factor | Demographic | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Male | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | The article describes a profile for active shooters in the United States, including multiple risk factors which are measured independently: white males in their thirties with dysfunctional adult lives, either single or divorced, with lower levels of education and a history of mental illness | Adults | Male | USA | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 98 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review refers to one study on ideological and non-ideological shooter events in the U.S Capellan, Joel A. “Lone Wolf Terrorist or Deranged Shooter? A Study of Ideological Active Shooter Events in the United States, 1970-2014.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 38, no. 6 (2015): 395–413. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1008341 |
| Being single or divorced | Static risk factor | Demographic | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Marital and Parental Status | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Relational | The article describes a profile for active shooters in the United States, including multiple risk factors which are measured independently: white males in their thirties with dysfunctional adult lives, either single or divorced, with lower levels of education and a history of mental illness | Adults | Male | USA | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 99 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review refers to one study on ideological and non-ideological shooter events in the U.S Capellan, Joel A. “Lone Wolf Terrorist or Deranged Shooter? A Study of Ideological Active Shooter Events in the United States, 1970-2014.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 38, no. 6 (2015): 395–413. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1008341 |
| Psychological disturbance, including obsessive-compulsive disorder and having experienced severe depression at least once in their life | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | As part of a larger study, Spaaij reported that four of the five lone wolf terrorists in the case studies they analyzed were diagnosed with either a personality disorder or obsessive-compulsive disorder. A similar proportion appears to have experienced serious depression during at least one stage of their lives, including before they committed the attacks. | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review refers to one article. Spaaij, Ramón. "The Enigma of Lone Wolf Terrorism: An Assessment." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 33, no. 9 (2010): 854–870. http://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2010.501426 |
| Having narcissistic and grandiose traits | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | The second citation, Leonard et al. (2014), focuses on the Norwegian Anders Breivik | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review refers to two articles to support this risk factor Lazzari, Carlo, Amira Nusair and Marco Rabottini. "Psychiatry of Radicalization and Terrorism in the Lone Wolf, Children, and Women: An E-ethnographic Approach for Analysis." American Journal of Psychiatry and Neuroscience 7, no. 3 (2019): 57-68. http://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajpn.20190703.12 Leonard, Celia H., George D. Annas, James L. Knoll and Terje Tørrissen. "The Case of Anders Behring Breivik – Language of a Lone Terrorist." Behavioral Sciences & the Law 32, no. 3 (2014): 408-422. http://doi.org/10.1002/bsl.2117 |
| Some kind of mental disorder | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | The presence of mental disorder was a distinctive feature for lone-actors terrorists, with close to half (43%) being diagnosed with some kind of mental disorder prior to committing their first terrorist attack. | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | US, Canada, Australia, and Europe | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review refers to one study , which studied 93 lone actors in the US, Canada, Australia, and Europe: Zeman, Tomaš, Jan Břeň, and Radek Urban. "Profile of a Lone Wolf Terrorist: A Crisis Management Perspective." Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues 8, no. 1 (2018): 5–18. https://journals.lka.lt/journal/jssi/article/1063/info |
| Some kind of mental disorder | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | 35% of lone-actor terrorists from a European sample of 120 cases between 2000 and 2014 had suffered from some kind of mental disorder. | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Europe | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review refers to one policy paper that looks at a sample of 120 cases between 2000 and 2014. De Roy van Zuijdewijn, Jeanine, and Edwin Bakker. "Policy Paper 1: Personal Characteristics of Lone-Actor Terrorists." The Hague: International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (2016). https://www.isdglobal.org/isd-publications/lone-actor-terrorism-policy-paper-1-personal-characteristics-of-lone-actor-terrorists/ |
| Schizophrenia and long-standing experience of identity crisis | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | In the case of one lone actor case study, this risk factor lead to the adoption of a radical islamist ideology at a time when he was questioning the purpose of life and experiencing suicidal thoughts. | Unspecified | The article focuses on one lone-actor case, an individual diagnosed with schizophrenia and with a long-standing experience of an identity crisis, who had reportedly adopted a radical Islamist ideology at a time when he was questioning the purpose of life and experiencing suicidal thoughts. | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article, which mentions only one lone-actor case. Prats, M., Raymond, S., and Gasman, I. "Religious Radicalization and Lone-Actor Terrorism: A Matter for Psychiatry?" Journal of Forensic Sciences 64, no. 4 (2019): 1253–1258. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.13992 |
| Mental health and personality disorders | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | Mental health and personality disorders are presented as one category. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Overall review | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | Overall conclusion of the review. Although mental illness or personality disorder may be considered risk factors for lone-actor terrorism, these should not be considered causal factors by themselves and are one of many factors that typically "crystalize" within the individual. The authors write, "Overall, the literature indicates a higher prevalence of mental illness and personality disorders for lone-actor terrorists than group-based terrorists and the general population." |
| Having a history of mental illness | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | The article describes a profile for active shooters in the United States, including multiple risk factors which are measured independently: white males in their thirties with dysfunctional adult lives, either single or divorced, with lower levels of education and a history of mental illness | Adults | Male | USA | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 101 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review refers to one study on ideological and non-ideological shooter events in the U.S Capellan, Joel A. “Lone Wolf Terrorist or Deranged Shooter? A Study of Ideological Active Shooter Events in the United States, 1970-2014.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 38, no. 6 (2015): 395–413. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1008341 |
| Mental Illness | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | For lone-actor terrorists, estimates of mental illness span from 20%-80%, with most studies finding a prevalence around 40%-50%. | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | The article references five studies which give estimates on the prevalence of mental illness/ Gill, Paul, John Horgan, and Paige Deckert. "Bombing Alone: Tracing the Motivations and Antecedent Behaviors of Lone-Actor Terrorists." Journal of Forensic Sciences 59, no. 2 (2014): 425–435. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.12312 Gill, Paul, Emma Corner, Amy McKee, Peter Hitchen, and Paul Betley. "What Do Closed Source Data Tell Us About Lone Actor Terrorist Behavior? A Research Note." Terrorism and Political Violence 34, no. 1 (2019): 113–130. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2019.1668781 Gruenewald, Jeff, Sarah Chermak, and James D. Freilich. "Distinguishing 'Loner' Attacks from Other Domestic Extremist Violence: A Comparison of Far-Right Homicide Incident and Offender Characteristics." Criminology & Public Policy 12, no. 1 (2013): 65–91. http://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12008 Gruenewald, Jeff, Sarah Chermak, and James D. Freilich. "Far-Right Lone Wolf Homicides in the United States." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 36, no. 12 (2013): 1005–1024. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2013.842123 Liem, Marieke, Jelle van Buuren, Jeanine de Roy van Zuijdewijn, Henk Schönberger, and Edwin Bakker. "European Lone Actor Terrorists Versus 'Common' Homicide Offenders: An Empirical Analysis." Homicide Studies 22, no. 1 (2018): 45–69. http://doi.org/10.1177/1088767917736797 Spaaij, Ramón. "The Enigma of Lone Wolf Terrorism: An Assessment." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 33, no. 9 (2010): 854–870. http://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2010.501426 |
| Mental illness | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | One article supported this factor which finds that mental illness is a key driver in susceptibility to violent attacks, and these actors may be at particular risk of quick and sudden radicalization. Clemmow, Caitlin, Paul Gill, Nigel Bouhana, Jason Silver, and John Horgan. "Disaggregating Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence: Comparing Lone-Actor Terrorists and Mass Murderers." Terrorism and Political Violence (2020). https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2020.1718661 |
| Mental illness | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | Mental illness represented a necessary condition for violent action when combined with 1) radical ideology and a high state-level gun ownership, or 2) either a large amount of guns, high-powered weapons and weak state-level gun legislation. It's also a causal pathway of mental illness when combined with the presence of group grievances, and the absence of acute and general strain. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | Two articles are cited in support: Capellan, J. A. and Alex Anisin. "A Distinction Without a Difference? Examining the Causal Pathways Behind Ideologically Motivated Mass Public Shootings." Homicide Studies 22, no. 3 (2018): 235–255. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1088767918770704 Capellan, J. A., J. Johnson, J. R. Porter, y C. Martin. "Disaggregating Mass Public Shootings: A Comparative Analysis of Disgruntled Employee, School, Ideologically Motivated, and Rampage Shooters." Journal of Forensic Sciences 64, no. 3 (2019): 814–823. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.13985 |
| Mental illness | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Overall review | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | Overall, studies emphasize mental illness as a crucial risk factor in lone-actor radicalization. Three limitations are worth mentioning. First, the definition of mental illness is often vague. Second, the predominant dichotomous coding carried out by researchers is unlikely to match either the reliability or validity of clinical interviews carried out by well-trained clinical diagnosticians. And third, most studies only examine prevalence rates, and thus describe the presence (or absence) of mental illness rather than its potential causal effect. |
| Narcissistic personality traits | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | The article references Bockler et al. (2018) and Bouhana et al. (2018), who identified indicators of narcissism (grandiose behaviors, over-confidence, lack of empathy) among school shooters and lone-actor terrorists. Böckler, Nils, Vincenz Leuschner, Andreas Zick, and Herbert Scheithauer. “Same but Different? Developmental Pathways to Demonstrative Targeted Attacks — Qualitative Case Analyses of Adolescent and Young Adult Perpetrators of Targeted School Attacks and Jihadi Terrorist Attacks in Germany.” International journal of developmental science 12, no. 1–2 (2018): 5–24. https://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-180255 Bouhana, Noémie, Emily Corner, Paul Gill, and Bart Schuurman. “Background and Preparatory Behaviours of Right-Wing Extremist Lone Actors: A Comparative Study.” Perspectives on terrorism (Lowell) 12, no. 6 (2018): 150–163. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26544649 |
| Schizophrenia | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | In a sample of 153 lone-actor terrorists, 8.5% had schizophrenia. Compared to the general population, Corner et al. (2016) found elevated levels of schizophrenia | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | One article is referenced in support: Corner, Emily, Paul Gill, and Oliver Mason. “Mental Health Disorders and the Terrorist: A Research Note Probing Selection Effects and Disorder Prevalence.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 39, no. 6 (2016): 560–568. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1120099 |
| Higher rates of delusional disorder | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | In a sample of 153 lone-actor terrorists, 2.0% had delusional disorder. Compared to the general population, which shows very low rates of less than 1%, Corner et al. (2016) found elevated levels of delusional disorder among lone actor terrorists. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | One article is referenced in support: Corner, Emily, Paul Gill, and Oliver Mason. “Mental Health Disorders and the Terrorist: A Research Note Probing Selection Effects and Disorder Prevalence.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 39, no. 6 (2016): 560–568. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1120099 |
| Depression | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | In a sample of 153 lone-actor terrorists, 7.2% had depression. "Corner et al. (2016) found lower diagnosed rates of depression amongst lone-actor terrorists compared to the general population." | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | One article is referenced in support: Corner, Emily, Paul Gill, and Oliver Mason. “Mental Health Disorders and the Terrorist: A Research Note Probing Selection Effects and Disorder Prevalence.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 39, no. 6 (2016): 560–568. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1120099 |
| Autism spectrum disorder | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | sample of 153 lone-actor terrorists, 3.3% had autism spectrum disorder. Compared to the general population, Corner et al. (2016) found elevated levels of autism spectrum disorder | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | One article is referenced in support: Corner, Emily, Paul Gill, and Oliver Mason. “Mental Health Disorders and the Terrorist: A Research Note Probing Selection Effects and Disorder Prevalence.” Studies in conflict and terrorism 39, no. 6 (2016): 560–568. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1120099 |
| A mood disorder | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | In a closed source study of 49 UK lone-actor terrorists, 12.2% experienced a mood disorder - the authors conclude that these results indicated elevated levels within lone-actor terrorist samples compared with national base rates. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | UK | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | One article is referenced in support: Gill, Paul, Emily Corner, Amy McKee, Paul Hitchen, and Paul Betley. “What Do Closed Source Data Tell Us About Lone Actor Terrorist Behavior? A Research Note.” Terrorism and political violence 34, no. 1 (2022): 113–130. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2019.1668781 |
| Schizophrenia | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | In a closed source study of 49 UK lone-actor terrorists, 10.2% experienced a mood disorder - the authors conclude that these results indicated elevated levels within lone-actor terrorist samples compared with national base rates. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | UK | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article includes studies examining the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence. The authors do not define "terrorist offence," but all factors related to violent behavior in this context are included in this matrix. | Gill, Paul, Caitlin Clemmow, Florian Hetzel, Bettina Rottweiler, Nadine Salman, Isabelle Van Der Vegt, Zoe Marchment, et al. “Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism.” The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology 32, no. 1 (2021): 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/14789949.2020.1820067 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 violent extremist samples. Studies must have reported an explicit goal of understanding the determinants of radicalisation or behaviour associated with a terrorist offence and reported at least one measure in a quantitative or qualitative sense. | One article is referenced in support: Gill, Paul, Emily Corner, Amy McKee, Paul Hitchen, and Paul Betley. “What Do Closed Source Data Tell Us About Lone Actor Terrorist Behavior? A Research Note.” Terrorism and political violence 34, no. 1 (2022): 113–130. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2019.1668781 |
| Suicidal thoughts | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | The article refers to one study: Karen Jacques, and Paul J. Taylor. “Male and Female Suicide Bombers: Different Sexes, Different Reasons?” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 31 (4) (2008): 304–26. doi:10.1080/10576100801925695. |
| Mental illness | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | The article finds that 33% of the sample of 49 Lone-actor Jihadists and right-wing inspired terrorists had mental illness. Of the sample, 6 were female (12%) and 43 were male (88%). This prevalence refers to the sample used in the study which only considers perpetrators of terrorism or violent extremism and does not compare with the general population. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | The article refers to one study: Paul Gill, Emily Corner, Amy McKee, Paul Hitchen, and Paul Betley. “What Do Closed Source Data Tell Us About Lone Actor Terrorist Behavior? A Research Note.” Terrorism and Political Violence 34 (1) (2019): 113–30. doi:10.1080/09546553.2019.1668781. |
| Psychotic background | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | The article found "psychotic background in 5 (23%) Palestinian lone-actors." This prevalence rate refers to the sample used in the studies which only considers perpetrators of terrorism or violent extremism and does not compare with the general population. | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | The article refers to one study: Ariel Merari and Boaz Ganor. “Interviews With, and Tests of, Palestinian Independent Assailants.” Terrorism and Political Violence 34 (8) (2020): 1595–1616. doi:10.1080/09546553.2020.1821668. |
| Mental health problems | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | According to one study, religiously inspired Palestinian lone-actor terrorists had mental health problems which were found to be causally involved in the decision to carry out an attack. The purpose of the attack was generally “to die or to be arrested, in order to escape from an intolerable life.” | Unspecified | In the study of Palestinian lone-actor terrorists who were religiously inspired, mental health problems were found to be causally involved in the decision to carry out an attack. According to this study, the purpose of the attack was generally “to die or to be arrested, in order to escape from an intolerable life.” | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | The article refers to one study: Ariel Merari and Boaz Ganor. “Interviews With, and Tests of, Palestinian Independent Assailants.” Terrorism and Political Violence 34 (8) (2020): 1595–1616. doi:10.1080/09546553.2020.1821668. |
| Psychiatric Disorders | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | The prevalence of psychiatric disorders among lone-actor terrorists varied from 31.9% to 48.5% (Gruenewald et al., 2013; Meloy et al., 2019). According to Gruenewald et al. (2013) there are high risks that the relationship between psychiatric disorders and terrorism is not causal. | Onset | Individual | The more isolated a terrorist is, the more likely they are to have a psychiatric disorder (Corner et al. 2016) | Does not specify | No differentiation | US and UK - Corner et al. (2016) / US for Gruenewald et al. (2013) / US and Canada for Meloy et al. (2019) | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article centers on terrorism, which they cite as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation” (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019). | Trimbur, Margot et al. (2021) Are Radicalization and Terrorism Associated with Psychiatric Disorders? A Systematic Review., in Journal of Psychiatric Research 141, 214-222 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2021.07.002 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 25 articles, 1 qualitative study, 21 quantitative study, 2 mixed-methods studies, 7 studies included people at risk of radicalisation, 8 studies examined radicalised populations, and 10 studies investigated terrorist populations | Three articles are cited: Gruenewald, Jeff, Steven Chermak, and Joshua D. Freilich. “Distinguishing ‘Loner’ Attacks from Other Domestic Extremist Violence.” Criminology & Public Policy 12 (2013): 65–91. https://doi.org/ 10.1111/1745-9133.12008 Corner, Emily, Paul Gill, and Oliver Mason. “Mental Health Disorders and the Terrorist: A Research Note Probing Selection Effects and Disorder Prevalence.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 39 (2016): 560–568. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1120099 Meloy, J. Reid, Alasdair M. Goodwill, Melissa J. Meloy, Gloria Amat, Marta Martinez, and Matthew Morgan. “Some TRAP-18 Indicators Discriminate Between Terrorist Attackers and Other Subjects of National Security Concern.” Journal of Threat Assessment and Management 6 (2019): 93–110. https://doi.org/ 10.1037/tam0000119 |
| Schizophrenia | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Higher prevalence of schizophrenia is found amongst lone-actor terrorists (8,5%) compared to the general population. According to Gill et al. (2014) and Corner and Gill (2015), there are high risks that the relationship between schizophrenia and terrorism is not causal. | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | US and UK | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article centers on terrorism, which they cite as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation” (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019). | Trimbur, Margot et al. (2021) Are Radicalization and Terrorism Associated with Psychiatric Disorders? A Systematic Review., in Journal of Psychiatric Research 141, 214-222 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2021.07.002 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 25 articles, 1 qualitative study, 21 quantitative study, 2 mixed-methods studies, 7 studies included people at risk of radicalisation, 8 studies examined radicalised populations, and 10 studies investigated terrorist populations | Three articles are cited: Gill, Paul, John Horgan, and Paige Deckert. “Bombing Alone: Tracing the Motivations and Antecedent Behaviors of Lone-Actor Terrorists.” Journal of Forensic Sciences 59 (2014): 425–435. https:// doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.12312 Corner, Emily, and Paul Gill. “A False Dichotomy? Mental Illness and Lone-Actor Terrorism.” Law and Human Behavior 39 (2015): 23–34. https://doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000102 Corner, Emily, Paul Gill, and Oliver Mason. “Mental Health Disorders and the Terrorist: A Research Note Probing Selection Effects and Disorder Prevalence.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 39 (2016): 560–568. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1120099 |
| Autism spectrum disorder | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | A higher prevalence of autism spectrum disorder is found amongst lone-actor terrorists (3.3%) compared to the general population. According to Gill et al. (2014) and Corner and Gill (2015), there are high risks that the relationship between autism spectrum disorder and terrorism is not causal. | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | US and UK | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article centers on terrorism, which they cite as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation” (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019). | Trimbur, Margot et al. (2021) Are Radicalization and Terrorism Associated with Psychiatric Disorders? A Systematic Review., in Journal of Psychiatric Research 141, 214-222 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2021.07.002 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 25 articles, 1 qualitative study, 21 quantitative study, 2 mixed-methods studies, 7 studies included people at risk of radicalisation, 8 studies examined radicalised populations, and 10 studies investigated terrorist populations | Three articles are cited: Gill, Paul, John Horgan, and Paige Deckert. “Bombing Alone: Tracing the Motivations and Antecedent Behaviors of Lone-Actor Terrorists.” Journal of Forensic Sciences 59 (2014): 425–435. https:// doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.12312 Corner, Emily, and Paul Gill. “A False Dichotomy? Mental Illness and Lone-Actor Terrorism.” Law and Human Behavior 39 (2015): 23–34. https://doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000102 Corner, Emily, Paul Gill, and Oliver Mason. “Mental Health Disorders and the Terrorist: A Research Note Probing Selection Effects and Disorder Prevalence.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 39 (2016): 560–568. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1120099 |
| Delusional disorder | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | A higher prevalence of delusional disorder is found amongst lone-actor terrorists (2%) compared to the general population. According to Gill et al. (2014) and Corner and Gill (2015), there are high risks that the relationship between delusional disorder and terrorism is not causal. | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | US and UK | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article centers on terrorism, which they cite as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation” (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019). | Trimbur, Margot et al. (2021) Are Radicalization and Terrorism Associated with Psychiatric Disorders? A Systematic Review., in Journal of Psychiatric Research 141, 214-222 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2021.07.002 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 25 articles, 1 qualitative study, 21 quantitative study, 2 mixed-methods studies, 7 studies included people at risk of radicalisation, 8 studies examined radicalised populations, and 10 studies investigated terrorist populations | Three articles are cited: Gill, Paul, John Horgan, and Paige Deckert. “Bombing Alone: Tracing the Motivations and Antecedent Behaviors of Lone-Actor Terrorists.” Journal of Forensic Sciences 59 (2014): 425–435. https:// doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.12312 Corner, Emily, and Paul Gill. “A False Dichotomy? Mental Illness and Lone-Actor Terrorism.” Law and Human Behavior 39 (2015): 23–34. https://doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000102 Corner, Emily, Paul Gill, and Oliver Mason. “Mental Health Disorders and the Terrorist: A Research Note Probing Selection Effects and Disorder Prevalence.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 39 (2016): 560–568. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1120099 |
| History of mental illness | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Corner, Gill and colleagues found that 31.9% of a sample, including 119 lone-actor terrorists, had a history of mental illness or personality disorder compared to 3.4% of group terrorists (Corner et al., 2016; Corner and Gill, 2015; Gill et al., 2014). The authors found a higher prevalence of schizophrenia (8.5%), autism spectrum disorder (3.3%), and delusional disorder (2%) among lone-actor terrorists than in the general population. Gill et al. identified a “history of mental problems in the subject’s biography” in 41% of the same sample, excluding isolated dyads (i.e., pairs of individuals who operate independently of a group) and perpetrators who facilitated violent actions (Meloy and Gill, 2016). According to Meloy et al. (2019) and Gill et al. (2014) there are high risks that the relationship between a history of mental illness and terrorism is not causal. | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Northern Ireland for Lyons and Harbinson (1986) / US and UK for Meloy and Gil (2016) and Gill et al. (2014) / US and Canada for Meloy et al (2019) | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article centers on terrorism, which they cite as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation” (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019). | Trimbur, Margot et al. (2021) Are Radicalization and Terrorism Associated with Psychiatric Disorders? A Systematic Review., in Journal of Psychiatric Research 141, 214-222 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2021.07.002 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 25 articles, 1 qualitative study, 21 quantitative study, 2 mixed-methods studies, 7 studies included people at risk of radicalisation, 8 studies examined radicalised populations, and 10 studies investigated terrorist populations | One article is cited: Meloy, J. Reid, and Paul Gill. “The Lone Actor Terrorist and the TRAP-18.” Journal of Threat Assessment and Management 3 (2016): 37–52. https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000061 |
| Mental disorders | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Mental disorders were less frequent among lone-actor terrorists than among non-attackers identified as a national security concern (Meloy et al., 2019). | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | US/ Canada | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article centers on terrorism, which they cite as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation” (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019). | Trimbur, Margot et al. (2021) Are Radicalization and Terrorism Associated with Psychiatric Disorders? A Systematic Review., in Journal of Psychiatric Research 141, 214-222 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2021.07.002 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 25 articles, 1 qualitative study, 21 quantitative study, 2 mixed-methods studies, 7 studies included people at risk of radicalisation, 8 studies examined radicalised populations, and 10 studies investigated terrorist populations | One article is cited: Meloy, J. Reid, and Paul Gill. “The Lone Actor Terrorist and the TRAP-18.” Journal of Threat Assessment and Management 3 (2016): 37–52. https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000061 |
| Suffering from a psychiatric disorder | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | There are reports that about 40% of the lone wolves (lone-acting terrorists) who develop their hateful ideologies absent contact with any particular terrorist group are suffering from a psychiatric disorder | Onset | Individual | Lone wolves (lone-acting terrorists) who develop their hateful ideologies absent contact with any particular terrorist group are likely to be suffering from a psychiatric disorder. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article examines how brain alterations are associated with terrorism and joining a terrorist group. The authors do not include a definition of terroristic violence or terrorist groups. | Bogerts, Schöne, Breitschuh (2017) Brain Alterations Potentially Associated with Aggression and Terrorism, CNS Spectrums (2018), 23, 129–140. © Cambridge University Press 2017 doi:10.1017/S1092852917000463 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | This review summarizes structural and functional brain-imaging studies in male violent offenders published from 2008 to 2017. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Ellis, Clare, Raffaello Pantucci, Jeanine de Roy van Zuijdewijn, Edwin Bakker, Melanie Smith, Benoît Gomis, and Simon Palombi. “Analysing the Processes of Lone-Actor Terrorism: Research Findings.” Perspectives on terrorism (Lowell) 10, no. 2 (2016): 33–41. https://pt.icct.nl/article/analysing-processes-lone-actor-terrorism-research-findings |
| Outside ties | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | The literature suggests that lone-actor terrorist attacks without outside influence, encouragement or inspiration are rare. Outside ties are considered key elements in the adoption and maintenance of the motive for lone actors, and sometimes the means to commit terrorist violence. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions two articles: Moskalenko, Sophia, and Clark McCauley. "The Psychology of Lone-Wolf Terrorism." Counselling Psychology Quarterly 24, no. 2 (2011): 115–126. http://doi.org/10.1080/09515070.2011.581835 Schuurman, Bart, Edwin Bakker, Paul Gill, and Noémie Bouhana. "Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation: A Data-Driven Analysis." Journal of Forensic Sciences 63, no. 2 (2018): 429–437. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.13676 |
| Contacts with larger radical circles | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | The author analyzes 55 cases and found that in 62% of cases the individual had prior contacts with larger radical circles | Onset | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article, Schuurman et al., analyzing 55 cases of lone actor terorrism. Schuurman, Bart, Edwin Bakker, Paul Gill, and Noémie Bouhana. "Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation: A Data-Driven Analysis." Journal of Forensic Sciences 63, no. 2 (2018): 429–437. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.13676 |
| Encouragement by external supporters | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | The author analyzes 55 cases and found that in 78% of cases they were encouraged by external supporters | Onset | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one article, Schuurman et al., analyzing 55 cases of lone actor terorrism. Schuurman, Bart, Edwin Bakker, Paul Gill, and Noémie Bouhana. "Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation: A Data-Driven Analysis." Journal of Forensic Sciences 63, no. 2 (2018): 429–437. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.13676 |
| Social ties and communication with other like-minded individuals | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | For some lone actors, identification with an extremist cause or ideology becomes increasingly important for their sense of self-worth or as an "identity stabilizer," particularly if they struggle to fit in socially. (...) connections to others plan an important role in the adoption and maintenance of their motivation to carry out their attack. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Relational | For some lone actors, identification with an extremist cause or ideology becomes increasingly important for their sense of self-worth or as an "identity stabilizer," particularly if they struggle to fit in socially. (...) | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Overall review | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | Overall conclusion of the review |
| Having direct contact to extremist groups | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Almost half of the sampled lone-actor terrorists in the respective studies had direct contact to extremist groups | Onset | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | The article references two reports in support: FBI. "Lone Offender – A Study of Lone Offender Terrorism in the United States (1972-2015)." National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime, 2019. Gill, Paul, Emma Corner, Amy McKee, Peter Hitchen, and Paul Betley. "What Do Closed Source Data Tell Us About Lone Actor Terrorist Behavior? A Research Note." Terrorism and Political Violence 34, no. 1 (2019): 113–130. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2019.1668781 |
| Anonymous interaction with online communities | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | 4 articles supported the factor: Böckler, Nina, Verena Leuschner, Andreas Zick, and Heiner Scheithauer. "Same but Different? Developmental Pathways to Demonstrative Targeted Attacks—Qualitative Case Analyses of Adolescent and Young Adult Perpetrators of Targeted School Attacks and Jihadi Terrorist Attacks in Germany." International Journal of Developmental Science 12, no. 1–2 (2018): 5–24. http://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-180255 Gill, Paul, John Horgan, and Paige Deckert. "Bombing Alone: Tracing the Motivations and Antecedent Behaviors of Lone-Actor Terrorists." Journal of Forensic Sciences 59, no. 2 (2014): 425–435. http://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.12312 Oksanen, Anu, Jari Nurmi, Mikko Vuori, and Petri Räsänen. "Jokela: The Social Roots of a School Shooting Tragedy in Finland." In School Shootings: International Research, Case Studies, and Concepts for Prevention, edited by Nina Böckler, Wilhelm Heitmeyer, Thomas Seeger, and Peter Sitzer, 189–215. Springer-Verlag, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5526-4_9 Gill, Paul, Emma Corner, Amy McKee, Peter Hitchen, and Paul Betley. "What Do Closed Source Data Tell Us About Lone Actor Terrorist Behavior? A Research Note." Terrorism and Political Violence 34, no. 1 (2019): 113–130. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2019.1668781 |
| Being inspired by extremist networks without socially interacting with them | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Three out of five lone-actor terrorists were inspired by or sympathized with extremist networks without any sign of social interaction. | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | The article references: Spaaij, Ramón. "The Enigma of Lone Wolf Terrorism: An Assessment." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 33, no. 9 (2010): 854–870. http://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2010.501426 |
| Unmet needs for identity, meaning, and belonging | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | Borum (2014) argues that thwarted needs for identity, meaning, and belonging represent/create psychological vulnerabilities that increase propensity for violent action. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | The review refers to one article Borum, Randy. "Psychological Vulnerabilities and Propensities for Involvement in Violent Extremism." Behavioral Sciences & the Law 32, no. 3 (2014): 286–305. https://doi.org/10.1002/bsl.2110 |
| Immense personal grievances, along with broader goals | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance, Anger/resentment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | Immense personal grievances, along with broader goals. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | The review mentions one document - a case study of five Islamist extremist lone-actor cases: Teich, Sarah. "Trends and Developments in Lone Wolf Terrorism in the Western World: An Analysis of Terrorist Attacks and Attempted Attacks by Islamic Extremists." (2013). Herzliya: International Institute for Counter-Terrorism. |
| Acute stress | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Stress | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | A particularly relevant starting point for this effect could be sociodemographic background, which often is mentioned as a potential driver of strain. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor violence fueled by grievances, that is, acts of demonstrative violence perpetrated by a single offender; examples of such offenders include lone-actor terrorists, workplace attackers, school shooters, rampage shooters, and violent Incels. | Ebbrecht, Christopher Kehlet. "Systematic Review: Risk Factors and Mechanisms of Radicalization in Lone-Actor Grievance-Fueled Violence." Nordic Psychology 75, no. 2 (2023): 150-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/19012276.2022.2074524 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 78 studies; 60 studies apply a variance-based methodology, 11 are case-based, and seven interpretivist. All studies, except a report made by the FBI for the US Department of Justice, are journal articles. | Two articles are cited in support - Both lone-actor terrorists and rampage shooters experience acute stress recently before committing acts of violence. Bouhana, Nigel, Emma Corner, Paul Gill, and Bart Schuurman. "Background and Preparatory Behaviours of Right-Wing Extremist Lone Actors: A Comparative Study." Perspectives on Terrorism 12, no. 6 (2018): 150–163. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26544649 Silver, James, John Horgan, and Paul Gill. "Shared Struggles? Cumulative Strain Theory and Public Mass Murderers from 1990 to 2014." Homicide Studies 23, no. 1 (2019): 64–84. https://doi.org/10.1177/1088767918802881 |
| Work/school problems | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Education, (Economic) Changes | Lone-actor violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Work stress/Job satisfaction, Positive/negative school experience | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Community | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | USA, Middle East | Violent extremism/terrorism (lone actors) | This review article focuses on lone-actor terrorism, which the authors acknowledge has "no commonly accepted definition... with a wide variety of labels and terminology adding to the confusion on this issue." Reviewed articles focus on terrorist actors that may have ties to extremists, groups or wider movements, but are acting without direct operational support. | Kenyon, Jonathan, Christopher Baker-Beall, and Jens Binder. "Lone-actor terrorism–a systematic literature review." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 46, no. 10 (2023): 2038-2065. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1892635 | Academic | 2023 | Reference to one or several articles | 97 journal articles, 10 books/book chapters and 2 reports for the department of justice. Qualitative and quantitative. | One study is cited, which found work and school problems were a common characteristic between rampage shooters in the U.S. and volunteer suicide bombers in the Middle East. Lankford, Adam and Nayab Hakim. "From Columbine to Palestine: A Comparative Analysis of Rampage Shooters in the United States and Volunteer Suicide Bombers in the Middle East." Aggression and Violent Behavior 16, no. 2 (2011): 98–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2010.12.006 |
| Trauma, including experiencing the death or torture of a close family member or friend and seeing societal-wide trauma | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence, (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (In)directly experienced violence/safety, Trauma/resilience | Similar to other research, the authors found that a combination of organizational, societal, and individual factors influenced suicide terrorists towards martyrdom. However the overarching and strongest element was the presence of a significant trauma - following this trauma, interviewees noticed a significant change in behavior, especially with regard to religion and the justification of martyrdom. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Chechen nationalist groups targeting Russia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited in support, which finds "trauma appears to be the strongest catalyst to deep psychological and behavioral changes that ultimately led to the choice of suicide terrorism.” Speckhard, Anne, and Khapta Ahkmedova. "The making of a martyr: Chechen suicide terrorism." Studies in conflict & Terrorism 29, no. 5 (2006): 429-492. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100600698550 |
| Insufficient basic services and abuses committed by the state | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Justice, (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) access to services, Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment, Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Nigeria | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Grievances around insufficient basic services and abuses committed by the state have been cited as factors in the rise of Boko Haram. de Montclos, Marc-Antoine Pérouse. "Boko Haram and politics: From insurgency to terrorism." In Boko Haram : Islamism, Politics, Security and the State in Nigeria. Leiden: African Studies Centre, 2014: 135. |
| Having diverse social connections | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) feeling of belonging | In addition to providing them an additional source of protection and a place to go during dangerous times, outside connections are one channel in which youth can broaden their perspectives and potentially resist tacit or explicit messages reverberating in their communities. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Youth, Children | Male and female | Nigeria | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Findings from interviews with people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth. Youth who had strong social networks, particularly meaningful connections that transcended their immediate community, were more likely to resist the pressures of Boko Haram. Youth cited external connections—perhaps through trading with outside communities, by having close friends or relatives outside of their immediate communities, or through school or religious groups—as a common thread in their stories of resistance. Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian |
| Broad frustrations with government creating initial community acceptance of an armed group | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) trust in institutions | Without access to or interaction with public officials, and thus little opportunity to express grievances, request services, or affect the political debate, many communities initially supported the idea of an opposition to what they considered an ineffective government. | Unspecified | About half of former members said their communities at some time supported Boko Haram, believing it would help bring about a change in government. All respondents perceived government to be largely absent from community life—with no or very few services. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Youth, Children | Male and female | Nigeria | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Findings from interviews with people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth. The authors summarize, "Boko Haram took advantage of deeply held grievances around government inadequacies to gain a foothold in communities." Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian |
| Sense of being a burden to their families | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Low) self-esteem | People opting for suicide generally struggle with perceived burdensomeness which has been documented among female suicide bombers. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Perceived burdensomeness is linked to being suicidal. | Does not specify | Female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on suicide terrorism, which the author does not provide a definition for. | Lankford, Adam. “Evidence That Suicide Terrorists Are Suicidal: Challenges and Empirical Predictions.” The Behavioral and brain sciences 37, no. 4 (2014): 380–393. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X13003609 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | The author uses a data set taken from his previous book: Lankford, Adam. The Myth of Martyrdom: What Really Drives Suicide Bombers, Rampage Shooters, and Other Self-Destructive Killers. First edition. New York, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, 2013. The data set is made up of 136 individuals who appear on the "partial list of suicide terrorists with risk factors for suicide", presented in Appendix A of the article cited above. The author also refers to multiple other academic articles. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Lester, David. “Female Suicide Bombers and Burdensomeness.” Psychological reports 106, no. 1 (2010): 160–162. https://doi.org/10.2466/PR0.106.1.160-162 |
| The belief that life has no meaning but pain which leads to feelings of depression, sadness and desperation | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Un)happiness, Status/Power/Significance | Recruiters seek people who are depressed, desperate, sad, and who feel like “life has no meaning but pain” for suicide terrorism. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment, Onset | Individual | The belief that life has no meaning but pain is linked to being suicidal. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Palestine | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on suicide terrorism, which the author does not provide a definition for. | Lankford, Adam. “Evidence That Suicide Terrorists Are Suicidal: Challenges and Empirical Predictions.” The Behavioral and brain sciences 37, no. 4 (2014): 380–393. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X13003609 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | The author uses a data set taken from his previous book: Lankford, Adam. The Myth of Martyrdom: What Really Drives Suicide Bombers, Rampage Shooters, and Other Self-Destructive Killers. First edition. New York, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, 2013. The data set is made up of 136 individuals who appear on the "partial list of suicide terrorists with risk factors for suicide", presented in Appendix A of the article cited above. The author also refers to multiple other academic articles. | Two books provide support for this risk factor: Berko, Anat. The Path to Paradise: The Inner World of Suicide Bombers and Their Dispatchers. Translated by Elizabeth Yuval. Westport, Conn: Praeger Security International, 2007. https://doi.org/10.5040/9798400695544 Stern, Jessica. Terror in the Name of God : Why Religious Militants Kill. 1st ed. New York: Ecco, 2003. |
| The belief that one's death is better than one's life which leads to feelings of depression, sadness and desperation | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Un)happiness, Status/Power/Significance | Recruiters seek people who are depressed, desperate, sad, and who feel like “death is better than living the way they do" for suicide terrorism. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | The belief that death is better than life is linked to being suicidal. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on suicide terrorism, which the author does not provide a definition for. | Lankford, Adam. “Evidence That Suicide Terrorists Are Suicidal: Challenges and Empirical Predictions.” The Behavioral and brain sciences 37, no. 4 (2014): 380–393. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X13003609 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | The author uses a data set taken from his previous book: Lankford, Adam. The Myth of Martyrdom: What Really Drives Suicide Bombers, Rampage Shooters, and Other Self-Destructive Killers. First edition. New York, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, 2013. The data set is made up of 136 individuals who appear on the "partial list of suicide terrorists with risk factors for suicide", presented in Appendix A of the article cited above. The author also refers to multiple other academic articles. | Three sources provide support for this risk factor: Berko, Anat. The Smarter Bomb: Women and Children as Suicide Bombers. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2016. Siemaszko, Corky. "’Mother of Believers’, Suspected of Recruiting More Than 80 Female Suicide Bombers, Arrested in Iraq." Daily News 3 (2009). Available at: https://www.nydailynews.com/2009/02/03/mother-of-believers-suspected-of-recruiting-more-than-80-female-suicide-bombers-arrested-in-iraq/ Obaid-Chinoy, S. (2010) Inside a school for suicide bombers. [Interactive Web talk at TED] https://www.ted.com/talks/sharmeen_obaid_chinoy_inside_a_school_for_suicide_bombers?subtitle=en |
| Local counter-narratives on the hypocrisy of armed groups | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Approval/disapproval of violence | A counter-narrative of Boko Haram as an organization characterized by corruption is a powerful message for youth who might otherwise be drawn to a fight against injustice or to a movement to right the ills of a government they perceive to be enormously corrupt. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Youth, Children | Male and female | Nigeria | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Findings from interviews with people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth. More than half of the youth who resisted joining shared a narrative of Boko Haram as a corrupt, greedy organization focused on enriching its leaders and, at times, members. Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian |
| The technological advancement of personal weaponry and the proliferation of small weapons | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Arms (un)availability | Researchers argue that such advancements have facilitated the transformation of children into fighters as lethal as adults, increasing the likelihood of child recruitment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Country | Unspecified | Children, Youth | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This review article examines child soldiering in armed conflicts. The authors do not define armed conflict but use the standard definition of a child soldier as formulated by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in 2007; ‘A “child soldier” is any child – boy or girl- under 18 years of age, who is part of any kind of regular or irregular armed force or armed group in any capacity, including, but not limited to cooks, porters, messengers, and anyone accompanying such groups other than family members.’ | Haer, Roos. "Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past." Third World Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2019): 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1552131 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review of academic literature on child soldiers. | Two books are cited in support: Stohl, Rachel J., Matthew Schroeder, and Dan Smith. The Small Arms Trade: A Beginner’s Guide. Oxford: Oneworld Publications, 2007. Singer, Peter Warren. “The New Children of Terror”. In: The Making of a Terrorist, edited by James J. Forest, 105–119. Westport, CT: Praeger, 2005 https://lccn.loc.gov/2005016849 The small arms argument, however, is heavily debated. Researchers have pointed out that many children are often sent into battle unarmed or solely armed with traditional weapons, and that the lack of existing data on the illicit arms trade means that testing of this potential causal linkage is extremely difficult. Three articles are cited for this claim: Andvig, Jens Chr, and Scott Gates. “Recruiting Children for Armed Conflict.” In: Child Soldiers in the Age of Fractured States, edited by Scott Gates and Simon Reich, 77–92. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2010. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt5vkgp3.10 Achvarina, Vera, and Simon F. Reich. “No Place to Hide: Refugees, Displaced Persons, and the Recruitment of Child Soldiers.” International Security 31, no. 1 (July 2006): 127–64. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec.2006.31.1.127 Shepler, Susan. “The Social and Cultural Context of Child Soldiering in Sierra Leone.” Paper for the PRIO sponsored workshop on Techniques of Violence in Civil War held in Oslo, August 20–21, 2004. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235678865_The_Social_and_Cultural_Context_of_Child_Soldiering_in_Sierra_Leone |
| Problematic substance use (e.g. problems with alcohol and drugs) | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Drug abuse/moderation | Unspecified | Unspecified | The article says that "Symptoms of problematic substance use were reported in five of the eight studies" included for this article. The prevalence of this factor is based on the sample used in the studies which only considers perpetrators of terrorism or violent extremism and does not compare with the general population. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | Overall review |
| Problems with alcohol and drugs | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Drug abuse/moderation | Unspecified | Unspecified | The study finds that "32 (73%) subjects self-reported problems with alcohol or drugs in former members of violent white supremacist groups." This prevalence rate refers to the sample used in the studies which only considers perpetrators of terrorism or violent extremism and does not compare with the general population. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | The article refers to one study: Bryan Bubolz and Pete Simi. "The problem of overgeneralization: the case of mental health problems and U.S. violent white supremacists." American Behavioral Scientist, 0(0) (2019) doi: 10.1177/0002764219831746 |
| Heroine addiction | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Drug abuse/moderation | Terrorist organizations use heroin addicts for suicide attacks. Forensic tests of some attackers' bodies have confirmed the presence of the drug. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Being a heroin addict is linked to being suicidal. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on suicide terrorism, which the author does not provide a definition for. | Lankford, Adam. “Evidence That Suicide Terrorists Are Suicidal: Challenges and Empirical Predictions.” The Behavioral and brain sciences 37, no. 4 (2014): 380–393. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X13003609 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | The author uses a data set taken from his previous book: Lankford, Adam. The Myth of Martyrdom: What Really Drives Suicide Bombers, Rampage Shooters, and Other Self-Destructive Killers. First edition. New York, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, 2013. The data set is made up of 136 individuals who appear on the "partial list of suicide terrorists with risk factors for suicide", presented in Appendix A of the article cited above. The author also refers to multiple other academic articles. | One report provides support for this risk factor: Fair, Christine. (2007) Suicide attacks in Afghanistan: 2001–2007. United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan. https://www.refworld.org/docid/49997b00d.html Additionally, one book highlights how heroine addiction is a risk factor for suicide in general: Maris, Ronald W, Alan L. (Alan Lee) Berman, Morton M Silverman, and Bruce Michael Bongar. Comprehensive Textbook of Suicidology. New York: Guilford Press, 2000. |
| Being a women (at risk of being abducted into an armed group (often to marry fighters)) | Static risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Female | Unspecified | Unspecified | Amnesty International reported that 2,000 women and girls were abducted by Boko Haram between the beginning of 2014 and April 2015. Boys and men are also abducted, but the numbers are less forthcoming. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Youth, Adults, Children | Female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Global studies have found common motivations across men and women for joining, though women are more likely to enter groups through abduction and are often forced to marry fighters. Ladbury, Sarah. "Women and Extremism: The association of women and girls with jihadi groups and implications for programming." Independent paper prepared for the Department of International Development and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office 23 (2015). https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/57a0897fed915d622c000245/61578_Women-Extremism-Full-Report.pdf Supporting statistics from Amnesty International are also cited, showing high rates of female abduction into Boko Haram. Amnesty International. "Stars on their shoulders. Blood on their hands: War crimes committed by the Nigerian military. " (2015). https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/afr44/1657/2015/en/ |
| Being a women (at risk of being forced into an armed group through their husbands or other family members) | Dynamic risk factor | Demographic | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Female | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Youth, Adults, Children | Female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Global studies have found common motivations across men and women for joining, though women are more likely to enter groups through their families. Ladbury, Sarah. "Women and Extremism: The association of women and girls with jihadi groups and implications for programming." Independent paper prepared for the Department of International Development and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office 23 (2015). https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/57a0897fed915d622c000245/61578_Women-Extremism-Full-Report.pdf |
| Seeing an armed group as an opportunity to get ahead, hanging one's future on the promise of business support | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial incentive | For many, successful business ownership is seen as a clear way to advance in society and ,any youth reported that they either accepted loans prior to joining or joined with the hope of receiving loans or direct support to their businesses. They described having few options without powerful “godfathers” to support them by providing capital for their businesses, or small cash transfers to buy new equipment or goods. Boko Haram, therefore, is filling a critical gap in financial services, as most youth cannot provide collateral and lack the skills to provide a business plan required by formal institutions | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Inequality between the Northeast region and the rest of the country, as well as localized inequality between the poor majority and the few elites in the Northeast, means that many youth dream of more than they have. Youth described scarce formal employment opportunities. | Youth, Children | Male and female | Nigeria | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Findings from interviews with people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth. The authors summarize, "Boko Haram has deftly exploited the ambitions of youth in this region, to get ahead and distinguish themselves in their communities" Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian |
| The belief that suicide bombing economically benefits future generations within the family | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial incentive | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | This theory has high explanatory power when applied to wealthy and well-educated suicide bombers in Lebanon. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Lebanon | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited in support: Azam, Jean-Paul. “Suicide-Bombing as Inter-Generational Investment.” Public choice 122, no. 1/2 (2005): 177–198. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-005-5795-z |
| Seeking retribution for suffering, such as for the death or serious injury to someone close, trauma related to an occupation, or continuous difficulty related to an occupation | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Emotions, (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Forgiveness/revenge, Trauma/resilience | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | The authors argue that there are three supporting factors for this risk factor: Sympathetic community, and family support for the bomber after the attack. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Palestine | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited which identifies this factor as one of four "prerequisite factors" of Palestinian suicide bombers. Kimhi, Shaul, and Shemuel Even. "Who are the Palestinian suicide bombers?." Terrorism and Policical Violence 16, no. 4 (2004): 815-840. https://doi.org/10.1080/095465590899740 |
| A combination of collective frustration, political Islam, and extreme poverty | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Group identity, Ideology, Poverty/Wealth, Anger/resentment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Palestine | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited in support: Khashan, Hilal. "Collective Palestinian frustration and suicide bombings." Third World Quarterly 24, no. 6 (2003): 1049-1067. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436590310001630062 |
| Increased religiosity and a strong commitment to religious belief (in relation to participation in violent jihadist movements) | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | One systematic review is cited in support; Christmann, Kris. "Preventing religious radicalisation and violent extremism: A systematic review of the research evidence." (2012). Youth Justice Board. https://huddersfield.box.com/s/wnsywqf9j74svx3r1yzwnmagqhn9r744 |
| The lure of fighting against “un-Islamic” elements | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Afghanistan | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | One report is cited in support: Fazli, Reza, Casey Garret Johnson, and Peyton Cooke. "Understanding and countering violent extremism in Afghanistan." Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace, 2015. https://www.usip.org/publications/2015/09/understanding-and-countering-violent-extremism-afghanistan |
| Religiosity - wanting to become more devout, or being drawn to a promise of paradise | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | According to one youth who was an armed group member, groups "attract you with reward of jihad, which, according to them, is paradise." | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | The goals of protecting religion and improving the state may be complementary. Some youth spoke about establishing Sharia law, or creating a better Islamic state, marrying the religious and political goals of the armed group. | Youth, Children | Male and female | Nigeria | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Findings from interviews with people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth. Many recruits spoke about wanting to become more devout, or being drawn to a promise of paradise, while some youth became more interested in religion after joining. Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian |
| Shared goals with an armed group of protecting religion and improving the state - such as establishing Sharia law or creating a better Islamic state. | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | The goals of protecting religion and improving the state may be complementary. Some youth spoke about establishing Sharia law, or creating a better Islamic state, marrying the religious and political goals of the armed group. The influence of these goals may also interact with how violent an armed group is. For Boko Haram, for example, the religious and ideological aspects attracted a higher proportion of youth before the group turned more violent in 2009. Youth described decreasing support for the religious and ideological aims because they rejected violent means of achieving a truer religious state. | Youth, Children | Male and female | Nigeria | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Findings from interviews with people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth. For some, the goals of protecting religion and improving the state were complementary. Some youth spoke about establishing Sharia law, or creating in Nigeria a better Islamic state, marrying the religious and political goals espoused by Boko Haram. Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian |
| Religious interpretations encouraging terror and a charismatic leader | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | The authors argue that there are three supporting factors for this risk factor: sympathetic community, groupthink and family support for the bomber after the attack. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Palestine | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited which identifies this factor as one of four "prerequisite factors" of Palestinian suicide bombers. Kimhi, Shaul, and Shemuel Even. "Who are the Palestinian suicide bombers?." Terrorism and Policical Violence 16, no. 4 (2004): 815-840. https://doi.org/10.1080/095465590899740 |
| The combination of personal trauma, frustration, ideology and social pressure, which are often tied together to form a quest for personal significance | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Status/Power/Significance, Trauma/resilience | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited in support: Kruglanski, Arie W., Xiaoyan Chen, Mark Dechesne, Shira Fishman, and Edward Orehek. "Fully committed: Suicide bombers' motivation and the quest for personal significance." Political psychology 30, no. 3 (2009): 331-357. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2009.00698.x |
| Being exposed to new media (including the internet and social media) that is leveraged by radical groups | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Media coverage, Internet, Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This review looked at individual‐level media effects on two outcomes of radicalization, cognitive and behavioral, with cognitive radicalization being limited to support, justification of, or a willingness/intention toward the use of radical violence in the name of a cause or ideology, and behavioral radicalization pertaining to the actual involvement in such violence. | Wolfowicz, Michael, Badi Hasisi, and David Weisburd. "What Are the Effects of Different Elements of Media on Radicalization Outcomes? A Systematic Review." Campbell Systematic Reviews 18, no. 2 (2022): e1244. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1244 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The review summarizes evidence from 4 experimental and 49 observational studies and synthesizes the effects of 23 media‐related risk factors across the two outcomes of cognitive and behavioral radicalization. | New media (including the internet and social media) have been successfully leveraged by radical groups and their supporters to spread their message, greatly increase their support base, and from this base generate new recruits Scrivens, Ryan, Paul Gill, and Michael Conway. "The Role of the Internet in Facilitating Violent Extremism and Terrorism: Suggestions for Progressing Research." In The Palgrave Handbook of International Cybercrime and Cyberdeviance, edited by Thomas J. Holt and Adam M. Bossler, 1417–1435. Palgrave Macmillan, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2020.1784147 |
| Personality disorder | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | The article says "Personality disorders were reported in all seven studies with varying prevalence rates between 2% and 44%." These prevalence rates refer to the sample used in the studies which only considers perpetrators of terrorism or violent extremism and does not compare with the general population. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | Overall review |
| Cluster B personality disorder (antisocial personality disorder, Borderline Personality Disorder, histrionic personality disorder, and narcissistic personality disorder) | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | The article says that "Seven of the eight studies under review measured the prevalence rates of specific mental disorders. Personality disorders were reported in all seven studies with varying prevalence rates between 2% and 44%. Cluster B personality disorders were the most common." These rates refer to the sample used in the studies which only considers perpetrators of terrorism or violent extremism and does not compare with the general population. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Overall review | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | Overall review |
| Suicidal thoughts or attempts | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | The articles find suicidal thoughts or attempts in 27 (62%) of the former members of violent white supremacist groups (49), and in 11 (41%) of the Palestinian lone actors respectively. These rates refer to the sample used in the studies which only considers perpetrators of terrorism or violent extremism and does not compare with the general population. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | The article refers to two studies: Ariel Merari and Boaz Ganor. “Interviews With, and Tests of, Palestinian Independent Assailants.” Terrorism and Political Violence 34 (8) (2020): 1595–1616. doi:10.1080/09546553.2020.1821668.; Bryan Bubolz and Pete Simi. "The problem of overgeneralization: the case of mental health problems and U.S. violent white supremacists." American Behavioral Scientist, 0(0) (2019): doi: 10.1177/0002764219831746 |
| Mental health problems | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | The study finds that former members of violent white supremacist groups "with a history of mental health problems may have been disproportionately rejected by conventional social networks and, thus, drawn toward marginalized social groups such as an extremist organization” | Does not specify | Male and female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article, a review of psychopathology of female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism, defines a terrorist act as “The threat, preparation or perpetration of serious violence based on ideological motives against people, or deeds aimed at causing socially disruptive material damage, with the goal to cause social change, to instill fear among the population or to influence political decision-making.” Regarding violent extremism, the article uses the following definition: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives” | Sadaf Rakhshandehroo, Nils Duits, Dick Bergman, Robbert-Jan Verkes, Maaike Kempes. "Psychopathology in female offenders of terrorism and violent extremism: a systematic review." Frontiers in psychiatry, 14, 1123243 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1123243 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | The article uses 8 studies with qualitative and quantitative methods | The article refers to one study: Bryan Bubolz and Pete Simi. "The problem of overgeneralization: the case of mental health problems and U.S. violent white supremacists." American Behavioral Scientist, 0(0) (2019) doi: 10.1177/0002764219831746 |
| Pathological Personality Traits | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | The prevalence of psychiatric disorders in people at risk of radicalization, radicalized people and terrorist populations. The review refers to several assessment tools used within the literature including: Pathological Hatred Test (the MMPI-2 Test), Rorschach tests, TAT House-Tree-Person drawings and an adapted version of the CPI translated into Arabic. | Pathological Personality Traits are highly prevalent in terrorist populations. For both Merari et al. (2010) and Schbley (2003) there are high risks that the relationship between pathological personality traits and terrorism is not causal. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Lebanon and Israel | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This review article centers on terrorism, which they cite as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation” (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019). | Trimbur, Margot et al. (2021) Are Radicalization and Terrorism Associated with Psychiatric Disorders? A Systematic Review., in Journal of Psychiatric Research 141, 214-222 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2021.07.002 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 25 articles, 1 qualitative study, 21 quantitative study, 2 mixed-methods studies, 7 studies included people at risk of radicalisation, 8 studies examined radicalised populations, and 10 studies investigated terrorist populations | Three studies are cited: Marie Gottschalk and Simon Gottschalk, “Authoritarianism and Pathological Hatred: A Social Psychological Profile of the Middle Eastern Terrorist,” American Sociologist 35 (2004): 38–59. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02692396 Merari, A., Diamant, I., Bibi, A., Broshi, Y., Zakin, G., 2010. Personality characteristics of “self Martyrs”/“Suicide bombers” and organizers of suicide attacks. Terrorism Polit. Violence 22, 87–101. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546550903409312. Schbley, A., 2003. Defining religious terrorism: a causal and anthological profile. Stud. Conflict Terrorism 26, 105–134. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100390145198. |
| Psychopathic Personality Traits | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | The prevalence of psychiatric disorders in people at risk of radicalization, radicalized people and terrorist populations. The review refers to several assessment tools used within the literature including: Pathological Hatred Test (MMPI-2 Test). | Religious fundamentalist terrorists had higher scores of psychopathic personality traits than the average population. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Israel and Palestine | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This review article centers on terrorism, which they cite as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation” (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019). | Trimbur, Margot et al. (2021) Are Radicalization and Terrorism Associated with Psychiatric Disorders? A Systematic Review., in Journal of Psychiatric Research 141, 214-222 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2021.07.002 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 25 articles, 1 qualitative study, 21 quantitative study, 2 mixed-methods studies, 7 studies included people at risk of radicalisation, 8 studies examined radicalised populations, and 10 studies investigated terrorist populations | One article is cited: Gottschalk, Marie, and Simon Gottschalk. “Authoritarianism and Pathological Hatred: A Social Psychological Profile of the Middle Eastern Terrorist.” The American Sociologist 35 (2004): 38–59. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02692396 |
| Paranoid Personality Traits | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | The prevalence of psychiatric disorders in people at risk of radicalization, radicalized people and terrorist populations. The review refers to several assessment tools used within the literature including: Pathological Hatred Test (MMPI-2 Test). | Religious fundamentalist terrorists had higher scores of paranoid personality traits than the average population. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Israel and Palestine | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This review article centers on terrorism, which they cite as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation” (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019). | Trimbur, Margot et al. (2021) Are Radicalization and Terrorism Associated with Psychiatric Disorders? A Systematic Review., in Journal of Psychiatric Research 141, 214-222 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2021.07.002 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 25 articles, 1 qualitative study, 21 quantitative study, 2 mixed-methods studies, 7 studies included people at risk of radicalisation, 8 studies examined radicalised populations, and 10 studies investigated terrorist populations | One article is cited: Gottschalk, Marie, and Simon Gottschalk. “Authoritarianism and Pathological Hatred: A Social Psychological Profile of the Middle Eastern Terrorist.” The American Sociologist 35 (2004): 38–59. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02692396 |
| Depressive Personality Traits | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | The prevalence of psychiatric disorders in people at risk of radicalization, radicalized people and terrorist populations. The review refers to several assessment tools used within the literature including: Pathological Hatred Test (MMPI-2 Test). | Religious fundamentalist terrorists had higher scores of depressive personality traits than the average population. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Israel and Palestine | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This review article centers on terrorism, which they cite as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation” (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019). | Trimbur, Margot et al. (2021) Are Radicalization and Terrorism Associated with Psychiatric Disorders? A Systematic Review., in Journal of Psychiatric Research 141, 214-222 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2021.07.002 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 25 articles, 1 qualitative study, 21 quantitative study, 2 mixed-methods studies, 7 studies included people at risk of radicalisation, 8 studies examined radicalised populations, and 10 studies investigated terrorist populations | One article is cited: Gottschalk, Marie, and Simon Gottschalk. “Authoritarianism and Pathological Hatred: A Social Psychological Profile of the Middle Eastern Terrorist.” The American Sociologist 35 (2004): 38–59. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02692396 |
| Hypomanic Personality Traits | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | The prevalence of psychiatric disorders in people at risk of radicalization, radicalized people and terrorist populations. The review refers to several assessment tools used within the literature including: Pathological Hatred Test (MMPI-2 Test). | Religious fundamentalist terrorists had higher scores of hypomanic personality traits than the average population. | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | Israel and Palestine | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This review article centers on terrorism, which they cite as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation” (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019). | Trimbur, Margot et al. (2021) Are Radicalization and Terrorism Associated with Psychiatric Disorders? A Systematic Review., in Journal of Psychiatric Research 141, 214-222 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2021.07.002 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 25 articles, 1 qualitative study, 21 quantitative study, 2 mixed-methods studies, 7 studies included people at risk of radicalisation, 8 studies examined radicalised populations, and 10 studies investigated terrorist populations | One article is cited: Gottschalk, Marie, and Simon Gottschalk. “Authoritarianism and Pathological Hatred: A Social Psychological Profile of the Middle Eastern Terrorist.” The American Sociologist 35 (2004): 38–59. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02692396 |
| Personality disorders | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Identified personality disorders measured via self-questionnaires. | A strong relationship between personality disorders and religious terrorism in 405 Hezbollah militants, 341 of whom answered self-questionnaires | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Personality disorders and religious terrorism | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This review article centers on terrorism, which they cite as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation” (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019). | Trimbur, Margot et al. (2021) Are Radicalization and Terrorism Associated with Psychiatric Disorders? A Systematic Review., in Journal of Psychiatric Research 141, 214-222 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2021.07.002 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | 25 articles, 1 qualitative study, 21 quantitative study, 2 mixed-methods studies, 7 studies included people at risk of radicalisation, 8 studies examined radicalised populations, and 10 studies investigated terrorist populations | One article is cited: Schbley, Ann. “Defining Religious Terrorism: A Causal and Anthological Profile.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 26 (2003): 105–134. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100390145198. |
| Pathological personality traits (according to the DSM-IV) | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Several explanations can be proposed to explain the important variations in the prevalence rates of psychiatric disorders identified in the systematic review. Importantly, the methodological discrepancies regarding both the psychiatric evaluation and the radicalized or terrorist statuses could be key elements in shedding light on these results. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This review article centers on terrorism, which they cite as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation” (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019). | Trimbur, Margot et al. (2021) Are Radicalization and Terrorism Associated with Psychiatric Disorders? A Systematic Review., in Journal of Psychiatric Research 141, 214-222 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2021.07.002 | Academic | 2021 | Overall review | 25 articles, 1 qualitative study, 21 quantitative study, 2 mixed-methods studies, 7 studies included people at risk of radicalisation, 8 studies examined radicalised populations, and 10 studies investigated terrorist populations | Overall review states: there are two trends in the terrorist population: low rates of psychiatric disorders in group terrorists (3.4%) compared to lone-actor terrorists (41%) and pathological personality traits in Middle-Eastern group terrorists. |
| Pathological narcissism | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Sageman did not find any evidence of pathological narcissism in his study of global Salafi mujahedin. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | global Salafi mujahedin | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One book is cited which does not find support for this risk factor among global Salafi mujahedin: Sageman, Marc. Understanding Terror Networks; University of Pennsylvania Press, 2004. |
| Paranoid personality disorder | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Sageman did not find any evidence of paranoid personality disorder in his study of global Salafi mujahedin. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | global Salafi mujahedin | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One book is cited which does not find support for this risk factor among global Salafi mujahedin: Sageman, Marc. Understanding Terror Networks; University of Pennsylvania Press, 2004. |
| Suffering from depression | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Suffering from depression is linked to being suicidal. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on suicide terrorism, which the author does not provide a definition for. | Lankford, Adam. “Evidence That Suicide Terrorists Are Suicidal: Challenges and Empirical Predictions.” The Behavioral and brain sciences 37, no. 4 (2014): 380–393. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X13003609 | Academic | 2014 | Reference to one or several articles | The author uses a data set taken from his previous book: Lankford, Adam. The Myth of Martyrdom: What Really Drives Suicide Bombers, Rampage Shooters, and Other Self-Destructive Killers. First edition. New York, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, 2013. The data set is made up of 136 individuals who appear on the "partial list of suicide terrorists with risk factors for suicide", presented in Appendix A of the article cited above. The author also refers to multiple other academic articles. | One article provides support for this risk factor: Brym, Robert J, and Bader Araj. “Are Suicide Bombers Suicidal?” Studies in conflict and terrorism 35, no. 6 (2012): 432–443. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2012.675550 |
| Mental disorder characterized by cognitive and emotional disturbances, abnormal behaviours, impaired functioning, or any combination of these | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Unspecified | The presence of a disorder, as characterised in Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) or International Classification of Diseases (ICD), cannot be reliably inferred from reports of symptoms present in open‐source data alone (e.g., press coverage of trials of suspected terrorist offenders). It requires careful assessment by a professional, often in collaboration with the individual being assessed, of the presence or absence of various criteria. | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Northern Ireland | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | The article says that while there is no universally accepted definition of terrorist behavior, there is at least some consensus that it refers to: (a) an act or campaign of actual or threatened violence that seeks to elicit the terror emotion in a target audience and; (b) with the intention of bringing about change in line with the world‐view of the terrorist. Terrorist behavior intends to cause harm, physical or otherwise. | Sarma, Kiran M, Sarah L Carthy, and Katie M Cox. “Mental Disorder, Psychological Problems and Terrorist Behaviour: A Systematic Review and Meta‐analysis.” Campbell systematic review 18, no. 3 (2022): e1268-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1268 | Academic | 2022 | Reference to one or several articles | 56 papers reporting on 73 terrorist samples (studies) | Some forms of mental disorder may actually preclude an individual from becoming involved in terrorism, For example, there is evidence that organisations like the Provisional IRA sought to recruit the most psychologically robust individuals into their ranks as a way of reducing the potential for members to be compromised and turn informer, or to provide information while being questioned by the police and security services. Here mental disorder actually protects against involvement. See: Sarma, K. M. (2005). Informers and the battle against republican terrorism: A review of 30 years of conflict. Police Practice and Research, 6(2), 165–180. https://doi.org/10.1080/15614260500121161 |
| Being suicidal, specificaly demonstrating a fatalistic-altruistic suicidal typology | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Health | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Mental health/illness | Altruistic suicide occurs when an individual is entrenched in an organization and feels a duty to commit suicide. The individual sees himself or herself as secondary to the whole. Acute altruistic suicide specifically relates to martyrdom. The acute altruistic suicide perpetrator believes in a fantastic life after death but sees life as worthless. Fatalistic suicide is a product of hopelessness that is often the result of continued and persistent political and economic oppression | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Palestine | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | Pedahzur, Perliger, and Weinberg acknowledge what others have noticed as well, that suicide terrorists do not exhibit common characteristics of individuals bent on suicide. They suggest instead that suicide terrorists fall into a new category of suicide typology, that of fatalistic-altruistic suicides and define this typology as individuals who fit into both Durkheim’s altruistic and fatalistic typologies of suicide behavior. Pedahzur, Ami, Arie Perliger, and Leonard Weinberg. “Altruism and Fatalism: The Characteristics of Palestinian Suicide Terrorists.” Deviant behavior 24, no. 4 (2003): 405–423. https://doi.org/10.1080/713840227 |
| Poverty | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | Although poverty has been disqualified as a causal factor in the number of suicide terror attacks, researchers have not disqualified the influence of poverty on individual and community stressors. Benmelech, Efraim, Claude Berrebi, and Esteban F Klor. “Economic Conditions and the Quality of Suicide Terrorism.” The Journal of politics 74, no. 1 (2012): 113–128. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381611001101 |
| Being suicidal | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Poverty/Wealth | One article suggests that if the person is suicidal, the organization simply provides the excuse necessary to commit suicide. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited in support: Merari, Ariel. "The readiness to kill and die: Suicidal terrorism in the Middle East." in Origins of Terrorism : Psychologies, Ideologies, Theologies, States of Mind by Walter Reich, Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 1998. However, the author notes the idea that suicide terrorists are suicidal has been refuted by more recent research, the combination of individual, organizational, and societal-level forces to explain suicide terrorism is a lasting concept. Pedahzur, Ami, Arie Perliger, and Leonard Weinberg. “Altruism and Fatalism: The Characteristics of Palestinian Suicide Terrorists.” Deviant behavior 24, no. 4 (2003): 405–423. https://doi.org/10.1080/713840227 |
| Inequality of opportunity | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Relative deprivation | Inequality between the Northeast region and the rest of the country, as well as localized inequality between the poor majority and the few elites in the Northeast, means that many youth dream of more than they have. Youth described scarce formal employment opportunities, but for many, successful business ownership is seen as a clear way to advance in society | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Youth | No differentiation | Nigeria | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | A study by the Nigeria Stability and Reconciliation Programme (NSRP) showed that inequality of opportunity can make youth vulnerable to recruitment from Boko Haram. Nigeria Stability and Reconciliation Programme. 2015. “Violent radicalization in Northern Nigeria: Economy and Society.” |
| Having peers who join (peer-to-peer relationship) | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | No interaction mentioned | Does not specify | No differentiation | N/A | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | Atran defines transnational terrorism as "The violent activity, including against nonbelligerents, of groups bound by ideological affinity, whose members form clandestine networks across nation-states". Moghaddam & Weiss (2020, p.121) define transnational terrorism as "A strategy of groups bound together by ideological affiliation but not by internationally recognised structures of existing nation-states, which aims to effect long-term social change across nationals in conformity with a political or religious doctrine by persistent means of extreme violence against nonconforming civilian populations meant to destabilise and undermine the prevailing order, while increasing conformity and support among populations susceptible to alienation from, and hostility to, that order." | Atran, Scott. "Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict." Annual Review of Psychology 72 (2021): 471–501. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050800 | Academic | 2021 | Reference to one or several articles | Mix of academic and grey literature. Mix of qualitative and quantitative data. | Mass recruitment depends on peer-to-peer relationships. People are more likely to join a terrorist organization if they are doing it in a group or at least not alone. Perliger, Arie, and Daniel Milton. "From Cradle to Grave: The Lifecycle of Foreign Fighters in Iraq and Syria." West Point, NY: Combating Terrorism Center, 2016. Soufan Group. "Foreign Fighters in Syria." Report. New York: Soufan Center, 2014. Sageman, Marc. "Understanding Terror Networks." Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2004. Hamid, N. "The Ecology of Extremists’ Communications: Messaging Effectiveness, Social Environments and Individual Attributes." RUSI Journal 165, no. 1 (2020): 54–63. https://doi.org/10.1080/03071847.2020.1731248 Atran, Scott. "Talking to the Enemy: Violent Extremism, Sacred Values, and What It Means to Be Human." London: Penguin, 2010. |
| Social ties, friends and other relations, propagating the ‘virtues’ of an armed group and normalizing membership within it | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Nigeria | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Data from a government program is cited in support: Nigeria Stability and Reconciliation Programme. 2015. |
| Feeling obligated to join their husbands in the movement, even if their husbands hadn’t threatened them or forced them to join | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Youth, Children | Female | Nigeria | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Findings from interviews with people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth.Some young women said they felt obligated to join their husbands in the movement, even if their husbands hadn’t threatened them or forced them to join Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian |
| Influence from social and business peers, including having friends, family members, or business colleagues join an armed group | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | For some, the power that a business colleague—particularly a buyer or boss— wielded compelled youth to explore the messages of Boko Haram and the prospect of joining. Perhaps because business ownership is an important part of identity in Nigeria, and because the dominant informal economy blurs business and personal life. | Youth, Children | Male and female | Nigeria | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Findings from interviews with people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth. Almost all former members cited friends, family members, or business colleagues as having joined, and many outright said their contacts’ support for Boko Haram activities affected their own choices. What matters most, from these stories, is whether that person was influential in the youth’s life, rather than the number of people in a youth’s network who joined. For some, the power that a business colleague—particularly a buyer or boss— wielded compelled youth to explore the messages of Boko Haram and the prospect of joining Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian |
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| Group pressure, especially under the influence of a strong or powerful leader | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Turkey | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited in support: Ergil, Doğu. "Suicide terrorism in Turkey." Civil Wars 3, no. 1 (2000): 37-54. https://doi.org/10.1080/13698240008402430 |
| Strong family influence, particularly of parent | Dynamic protective factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence, Parenting skills | Parents and other elder relatives or respected figures in youth’s lives who talked openly about Boko Haram and discussed it with their children seemed able, in some cases, to influence their decisions. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Youth, Children | Male and female | Nigeria | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Findings from interviews with people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth. Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian |
| Political awareness and belief that armed struggle and suicide missions are vital to liberation | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset, Recruitment | Individual | The authors argue that there are three supporting factors for this risk factor: Organizational participation in suicide missions, sympathetic community, and international media attention. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Palestine | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | Suicide terrorism | Harmon, Vanessa, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, and Henriikka Weir. “Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review.” Homeland security affairs XIV (2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749 | Academic | 2018 | Reference to one or several articles | Systematic review of 47 peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature analyzing the causes and motivations of suicide terrorism and ranging in focus from individual-level motivations to social forces to organizational strategies. | One article is cited which identifies this factor as one of four "prerequisite factors" of Palestinian suicide bombers. Kimhi, Shaul, and Shemuel Even. "Who are the Palestinian suicide bombers?." Terrorism and Policical Violence. 16, no. 4 (2004): 815-840. https://doi.org/10.1080/095465590899740 |
| Religious illiteracy, or the lack of knowledge about the content of one’s own religious tradition, as well as lack of familiarity with the basic texts and scriptures, practices, and interpretations. | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Education | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Type of education | Religious illiteracy may make religious followers more open to militant and extremist versions of a religious tradition., and thus more likely to join extremist groups. | Unspecified | In a survey aimed at militant religious extremists, 51% of the respondents self-reported religion to be an important factor for why they joined a violent extremist group. Moreover, 57% of the respondents were religious illiterate; that is, they held very low levels of knowledge about their religion in terms of never reading or not understanding religious texts (United Nations Development Programme, 2017) | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | UNDP (2017); Kenya | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article reviews factors influencing the onset and dynamics of civil war and extremist intrastate conflict. The authors do not define these conflict types but refer to these terms interchangeably. | Svensson, Isak. “Civil War and Religion: An Overview.” In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.650 | Academic | 2019 | Reference to one or several articles | Narrative review which examines the extent to which religious factors can explain the onset civil wars. The emphasis is primarily on the large-N quantitative research in this field, but examples of how religious dynamics play out in particular civil wars are mentioned as well. | Two articles are cited in support Appleby, R. Scott. "The ambivalence of the sacred: Religion, violence, and reconciliation." Pro Ecclesia 12, no. 1 (2003): 116-118. Ojielo, Ozonnia. "Journey to extremism in Africa: drivers, incentives and the tipping point for recruitment." United Nations Development Programme Regional Bureau for Africa. (2017) |
| An armed group offering unique learning opportunities for women | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Education, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Type of education, Ideology | Many women reported wanted to learning the Quran, which armed group participation allowed for. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Opportunities were closely tied to religion, as most women sought to learn the Quran. Even some members who were forced to join cited the opportunities to acquire knowledge, to memorize the Quran, and to learn about Islam more deeply as positive components of their experience in Boko Haram. | Youth, Children | Female | Nigeria | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Findings from interviews with people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth. Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian |
| Abusive domestic environments | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Dys)functional family dynamics | Girls throughout the world voluntarily join armed forces to flee abusive domestic environments, forced marriages, and other forms of gender oppression. In this relationship, the armed group provides a service for youth to achieve other life goals. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children | Female | Global | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | One study is referenced in the introduction: Stevens, Anna J. "The Invisible Soldiers: Understanding How the Life Experiences of Girl Child Soldiers Impacts Upon Their Health and Rehabilitation Needs." Archives of Disease in Childhood 99 (2014): 458–462. https://doi.org/10.1136/archdischild-2013-305240 |
| A lack of perceived legitimacy of government, due to weak institutions or repression | Dynamic risk factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State, (RoL/Gov) Justice, (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Lack of) trust in institutions, Strength rule of law/institutions, Human rights violations/respect | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment, Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Two articles are cited in support: Bodea, Cristina, and Ibrahim A. Elbadawi. “Riots, Coups and Civil War: Revisiting the Greed and Grievance Debate.” World Bank, 2007. http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep02506. Goldstone, Jack A, Robert H Bates, David L Epstein, Ted Robert Gurr, Michael B Lustik, Monty G Marshall, Jay Ulfelder, and Mark Woodward. “A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability.” American journal of political science 54, no. 1 (2010): 190–208. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.x |
| Having a sensation seeking personality, consisting of a constant search for novel and intense experiences and a tolerance for related risks. | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Low) sensation seeking | While it is unlikely that sensation seeking alone produces participation in armed groups, sensation-seeking individuals living under contextual conditions favorable to the existence of armed groups may be more receptive to frustration, peer pressure, or selective incentives, and are thus more likely to join armed groups, Sensation seeking hence does not contradict earlier theories related to situational motivations or contextual conditions. Rather, a sensation-seeking personality raises the likelihood for joining any armed group, ceteris paribus. Low sensation seekers, deterred by the risk implied in war participation, may prefer alternative strategies in a conflict context—flight instead of fight—or dedicate themselves to low-intensity collaboration with armed groups. | The Fundación Ideas para la Paz (FIP) survey is used to measure preliminary indicators for three of the four dimensions of sensation seeking: boredom susceptibility, disinhibition, and thrill and adventure seeking (there is no indicator available for the fourth dimension of experience seeking). | Only two of the three measured indicators for a sensation seeking personality showed a significant association with joining a rebel group, but all results pointed in the hypothesized direction (with a sensation seeking personality being found to be associated with joining a rebel group). | Recruitment | Individual | Low sensation seekers might join armed groups more often if the risk outside the group is clearly larger than inside. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Colombia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | The statistical findings of the primary study which compares voluntary and forcible recruits - a survey with 1,485 Colombian ex-combatants from both insurgent and paramilitary groups between February 5, 2008 and May 31, 2008. Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 |
| Boredom susceptibility | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | (Low) sensation seeking | One of the four dimensions of the "sensation-seeking" personality trait. While it is unlikely that sensation seeking alone produces participation in armed groups, sensation-seeking individuals living under contextual conditions favorable to the existence of armed groups may be more receptive to frustration, peer pressure, or selective incentives, and are thus more likely to join armed groups, Sensation seeking hence does not contradict earlier theories related to situational motivations or contextual conditions. Rather, a sensation-seeking personality raises the likelihood for joining any armed group, ceteris paribus. | One of the questions of the Fundación Ideas para la Paz (FIP) survey is about why respondents stopped going to school, to which one of the response options were “because I was bored of studying.” | According to the survey results, individuals who voluntarily joined guerrilla groups in Colombia had higher levels of susceptibility to boredom than individuals who were forcibly recruited. However, the same result was not found for individuals who joined paramilitary groups. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Colombia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | The statistical findings of the primary study which compares voluntary and forcible recruits - a survey with 1,485 Colombian ex-combatants from both insurgent and paramilitary groups between February 5, 2008 and May 31, 2008. Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 |
| Disinhibition | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Low) sensation seeking | One of the four dimensions of the "sensation-seeking" personality trait. While it is unlikely that sensation seeking alone produces participation in armed groups, sensation-seeking individuals living under contextual conditions favorable to the existence of armed groups may be more receptive to frustration, peer pressure, or selective incentives, and are thus more likely to join armed groups, Sensation seeking hence does not contradict earlier theories related to situational motivations or contextual conditions. Rather, a sensation-seeking personality raises the likelihood for joining any armed group, ceteris paribus. | One of the questions from the Fundación Ideas para la Paz (FIP) survey is about whether ex-combatants “paid for sex while they were in the group.” This question provides a rough indication of disinhibition, since it relates to sensation seeking through other people and a preference for sexual variety. | According to the survey results, individuals who voluntarily joined guerrilla groups in Colombia had higher levels of disinhibition than individuals who were forcibly recruited. This result holds for the paramilitary subsample and loses significance for the guerrilla subsample. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Colombia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | The statistical findings of the primary study which compares voluntary and forcible recruits - a survey with 1,485 Colombian ex-combatants from both insurgent and paramilitary groups between February 5, 2008 and May 31, 2008. Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 |
| Thrill and adventure seeking | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Low) sensation seeking | One of the four dimensions of the "sensation-seeking" personality trait. While it is unlikely that sensation seeking alone produces participation in armed groups, sensation-seeking individuals living under contextual conditions favorable to the existence of armed groups may be more receptive to frustration, peer pressure, or selective incentives, and are thus more likely to join armed groups, Sensation seeking hence does not contradict earlier theories related to situational motivations or contextual conditions. Rather, a sensation-seeking personality raises the likelihood for joining any armed group, ceteris paribus. | One of the questions from the Fundación Ideas para la Paz (FIP) survey is about "why survey participants stayed in the group." One response option for this question is “fear of leaving.” This is a negative indicator of thrill and adventure seeking, since high sensation seekers would be less afraid of an activity that implies risk and excitement like desertion | According to the survey results, individuals who voluntarily joined guerrilla groups in Colombia had higher levels of "Thrill and adventure seeking" than individuals who were forcibly recruited. While roughly one-fifth of voluntary joiners were afraid of leaving, more than half of forced joiners were fearful of leaving the group, thus indicating a dislike of danger. This result holds for both the paramilitaries and the guerrilla. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Colombia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | The statistical findings of the primary study which compares voluntary and forcible recruits - a survey with 1,485 Colombian ex-combatants from both insurgent and paramilitary groups between February 5, 2008 and May 31, 2008. Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 |
| Low risk perception, appetite for adventure, and no wish for a stable family life | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Low) sensation seeking | One of the four dimensions of the "sensation-seeking" personality trait. While it is unlikely that sensation seeking alone produces participation in armed groups, sensation-seeking individuals living under contextual conditions favorable to the existence of armed groups may be more receptive to frustration, peer pressure, or selective incentives, and are thus more likely to join armed groups, Sensation seeking hence does not contradict earlier theories related to situational motivations or contextual conditions. Rather, a sensation-seeking personality raises the likelihood for joining any armed group, ceteris paribus. | Unspecified | This comes from a number of interviews - and is expressed in a quote from one of former FARC interviewee: “Every day one gets more conscious of what you are doing. . . . [A]and so one notices the risks, of course. But at the beginning, I think that a young person will not . . . will never notice the risks that [he/she] assumes, never. . . . A young [person] of that age . . . in my experience, thinks very little.” | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Youth | No differentiation | Colombia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One dissertation is cited in support: Jonsson, Michael. "Comrades in Arms: Motivational Change and Divergence Inside FARC-EP, 2002–2010." PhD dissertation, University of Uppsala, 2014. |
| Motivated by adventure and fun | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Low) sensation seeking | Unspecified | Unspecified | Moreno et al. report in their study on former girl soldiers that 45% of their interviewees cite adventure and fun as motivations for joining—the most common factor | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Female | Colombia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One article is cited in support: Moreno Martín, Florentino, Jaime Alberto Carmona Parra, and Felipe Tobón Hoyos. “Por que se vinculan las niñas a los grupos guerrilleros y paramilitares en Colombia?” Revista latinoamericana de psicología 42, no. 3 (2010): 453–467. https://link.gale.com/apps/doc/A246012451/PPPC?u=new64731&sid=bookmark-PPPC&xid=826009ff |
| Wanting to "evade their dull destiny in the countryside" and to live an exciting life | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | (Low) sensation seeking | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Female | Colombia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One article is cited in support: Ribetti, Marcella. “The Unveiled Motivations of Violence in Intra-State Conflicts: The Colombian Guerrillas.” Small wars & insurgencies 18, no. 4 (2007): 699–720. https://doi.org/10.1080/09592310701778548 |
| Being around 18 years old or younger | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age | General findings from psychology indicate that sensation seeking, a psychological trait associated with a desire to join an armed rebel group, peaks at around 18 years of age. | Unspecified | The National Planning Department, based on a survey of ex-combatants, reports that more than half of their demobilized study participants joined when they were younger than 18 or between 18 and 25 (guerrilla groups attracted younger recruits than paramilitaries). Joining above the age of 35 years is a rare event for both paramilitaries (about 6%) and guerrilla (about 2%), according to the DNP Pinto et al. find that 82% of those demobilized in the year 2000 joined the guerrilla groups between the ages of 10 and 17 years | Recruitment | Individual | Being a young male places one at the highest risk of joining a rebel group | Youth, Children | Male | Colombia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One report is cited in support: Departamento Nacional de Planeación (DNP). Evaluación de Resultados de la Política de Reintegración. Bogotá: DNP, Econometría Consultores, 2010 |
| Being at least 35 years old | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Age | General findings from psychology indicate that sensation seeking, a psychological trait associated with a desire to join an armed rebel group, peaks at around 18 years of age - and declines as people get older. | Unspecified | The National Planning Department, based on a survey of ex-combatants, reports joining as a recruit above the age of 35 years is a rare event for both paramilitaries (about 6%) and guerrilla (about 2%). | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Adults | No differentiation | Colombia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | Two reports are cited in support: Departamento Nacional de Planeación (DNP). Evaluación de Resultados de la Política de Reintegración. Bogotá: DNP, Econometría Consultores, 2010 Pinto, María Eugenia, Andrés Vergara, and Yilberto Lahuerta, Diagnóstico del programa de reinserción en Colombia: mecanismos para incentivar la desmovilización voluntaria individual. DNP., 2003. |
| Unemployment | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Employment/Unemployment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment, Onset | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Emerging evidence, based on speaking directly with youth who participate in violence, indicates that the assumed link between unemployment and participation in violent extremist groups is complex at best, and often doesn’t hold up to scrutiny in specific conflicts. Mercy Corps. 2015. “Youth and Consequences.” https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/youth-consequences-unemployment-injustice-and-violence |
| The availability of violent armed groups in their proximity | Static risk factor | (Security) Violence | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Feeling (un)safe/seeking protection | Unspecified | Unspecified | According to FIP survey data, in the case of paramilitary interviewees 84% said that paramilitary groups were active in their area the year before joining the group (38% said guerrilla groups were present in their region as well). In the case of former guerrilla members 97% said that guerilla groups were active (66% stated that paramilitaries were in their area as well). | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Youth | No differentiation | Colombia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | The statistical findings of the primary study which compares voluntary and forcible recruits - a survey with 1,485 Colombian ex-combatants from both insurgent and paramilitary groups between February 5, 2008 and May 31, 2008. Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 This is further supported by one journal article and one news article: de Posada, Cristina Villegas. “Motives for the Enlistment and Demobilization of Illegal Armed Combatants in Colombia.” Peace and conflict 15, no. 3 (2009): 263–280. https://doi.org/10.1080/10781910903032609 El Tiempo, "Habla Por Primera Vez La Madre Del Narco ‘Otoniel’." Bogotá, Colombia: Casa Editorial El Tiempo, 2015. |
| Being a female | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Female | Unspecified | Unspecified | The National Planning Department, based on a survey of ex-combatants, reports that 15% who joined were female (guerilla groups had higher rates of female participation than paramilitary groups). Pinto et al. find that 92% of demobilized recruits from guerrilla groups were male. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | Female | Colombia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | Two reports are cited in support: Departamento Nacional de Planeación (DNP). Evaluación de Resultados de la Política de Reintegración. Bogotá: DNP, Econometría Consultores, 2010 Pinto, María Eugenia, Andrés Vergara, and Yilberto Lahuerta, Diagnóstico del programa de reinserción en Colombia: mecanismos para incentivar la desmovilización voluntaria individual. DNP., 2003. |
| Needing or wanting money | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Changes | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Financial incentive | Unspecified | One of the questions from the Colombian survey from the National Planning Department is about why ex-combatants joined armed groups; and one of the responses is “for money." | The DNP survey reports “for money” as one of the two highest reasons ex-combatants joined armed groups | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Colombia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One report is cited in support: Departamento Nacional de Planeación (DNP). Evaluación de Resultados de la Política de Reintegración. Bogotá: DNP, Econometría Consultores, 2010 |
| Being vulnerable to indoctrination, sometimes as a result of seeking revenge for killed or injured family and friend | Dynamic risk factor | (Security) Violence, (Psychosocial) Emotions, (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Forgiveness/revenge, (In)directly experienced violence/safety, Ideology | Comradeship involves children participating in armed groups voluntarily through indoctrination or as an act of revenge for killed or injured family and friends. Studies conducted in multiple conflict regions throughout the world have highlighted that children are attractive for this type of recruitment because of the ease with which they get indoctrinated, mobilized, and retained (Beber & Blattman, 2013; Chen, 2014; de Silva, 2013; Schauer & Elbert, 2010). | Unspecified | A study in Sri Lanka showed that 18 of 19 child soldiers joined voluntarily through comradeship (de Silva, 2013). A similar study in El Salvador showed that 73.7% of child soldiers also joined voluntarily through comradeship (Dickson-Gómez, 2002). | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Global | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | 5 studies are cited: (Beber & Blattman, 2013; Chen, 2014; de Silva, 2013; Schauer & Elbert, 2010; Dickson-Gomez, 2002) Beber, Bernd, and Christopher Blattman. "The Logic of Child Soldiering and Coercion." International Organization 67 (2013): 65–104 https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818312000409 Kai Chen, "Why Children Are Involved in Armed Conflicts?" In Comparative Study of Child Soldiering on the Myanmar–China Border: Evolutions, Challenges, and Countermeasures (Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 2014), 53–61. De Silva, Daya. "The Use of Child Soldiers in War with Special Reference to Sri Lanka." Paediatrics and International Child Health 33 (2013): 273–280. https://doi.org/10.1179/2046905513Y.0000000095 Schauer, Elisabeth, and Thomas Elbert. "The Psychological Impact of Child Soldiering." 2010. Dickson-Gómez, Julia. "Growing Up in Guerrilla Camps: The Long-Term Impact of Being a Child Soldier in El Salvador’s Civil War." Ethos 30 (2002): 327–356. https://doi.org/10.1525/eth.2002.30.4.327 |
| Forced marriages | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Girls throughout the world voluntarily join armed forces to flee abusive domestic environments, forced marriages, and other forms of gender oppression. In this relationship, the armed group provides a service for youth to achieve other life goals. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children | Female | Global | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | One study is referenced in the introduction: Stevens, Anna J. "The Invisible Soldiers: Understanding How the Life Experiences of Girl Child Soldiers Impacts Upon Their Health and Rehabilitation Needs." Archives of Disease in Childhood 99 (2014): 458–462. https://doi.org/10.1136/archdischild-2013-305240 |
| Gender oppression | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Human rights violations/respect | Girls throughout the world voluntarily join armed forces to flee abusive domestic environments, forced marriages, and other forms of gender oppression. In this relationship, the armed group provides a service for youth to achieve other life goals. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Children | Female | Global | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | One study is referenced in the introduction: Stevens, Anna J. "The Invisible Soldiers: Understanding How the Life Experiences of Girl Child Soldiers Impacts Upon Their Health and Rehabilitation Needs." Archives of Disease in Childhood 99 (2014): 458–462. https://doi.org/10.1136/archdischild-2013-305240 |
| Being motivated by moral commitments to collective sacred values and not only by selective incentives | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One article is cited in support: Ginges, Jeremy, and Scott Atran. “War as a Moral Imperative (Not Just Practical Politics by Other Means).” Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 278, no. 1720 (2011): 2930–2938. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2010.2384 |
| The individual who is being recruited is accessible through social media channels | Dynamic risk factor | (Technology) Multimedia | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Internet | In American and European countries, girls from both Muslim and non-Muslim families have become connected to ISIS through social media with messages tapping into their frustrations and vulnerabilities (Bennhold, 2015). | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | Female | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | Three references are cited in support: Mosendz, Polly. "The Teenage Fans of ISIS." The Atlantic Daily, October 22, 2014. Article No. 381736. Neer, Thomas, and Mary Ellen O’Toole. "The Violence of the Islamic State of Syria (ISIS): A Behavioral Perspective." Violence and Gender 1 (2014): 145–156. https://doi.org/10.1089/vio.2014.0037 Bennhold, Katrin. "Jihad and Girl Power: How ISIS Lured 3 London Girls." The New York Times, August 17, 2015. |
| Being a male | Static risk factor | Demographic | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Male | Unspecified | Unspecified | The National Planning Department, based on a survey of ex-combatants, reports that 15% who joined were female (guerilla groups had higher rates of female participation than paramilitary groups). Pinto et al. find that 92% of demobilized recruits from guerrilla groups were male. | Recruitment | Individual | Being a young male places one at the highest risk of joining a rebel group | Youth | Male | Colombia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | Two reports are cited in support: Departamento Nacional de Planeación (DNP). Evaluación de Resultados de la Política de Reintegración. Bogotá: DNP, Econometría Consultores, 2010 Pinto, María Eugenia, Andrés Vergara, and Yilberto Lahuerta, Diagnóstico del programa de reinserción en Colombia: mecanismos para incentivar la desmovilización voluntaria individual. DNP., 2003. |
| Increases in the average brideprice or inflation in the brideprice market (brideprice being a fee or tax typically paid by young men to a bride's family in order to marry in patrilineal cultures). | Dynamic risk factor | (RoL/Gov) Human Rights, Demographic | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Marital and Parental Status, Human rights violations/respect | Young men are highly sensitive to new trends in brideprice, and the result of persistent brideprice inflation is that marriage is either delayed or even put out of reach for many young men. This creates a high levels of grievance, which in turn open up an opportunity for anti-establishment groups to exploit young men attempting to gain the status and the assets needed to marry. | Brideprice, dowry, and wedding costs measured through the WomanStats Brideprice Scale of The WomanStats Project. | In three case studies of organized violent groups or violent conflict; Boko Haram in Nigeria, civil war in South Sudan, and Saudi Arabia, bride price is found to be a significant influence on recruits to civil war conflicts and/or violent organized conflicts. Additionally, reduced brideprice is found to be significantly associated with how stable and peaceful a society is in a brief quantitative analysis. | Recruitment | Societal | One source of marriage market distortion often found in brideprice societies is higher female mortality. Additionally, given the tendency toward brideprice inflation, an unequal distribution of wealth will amplify market distortions by facilitating polygyny (wealthy men are able to pay even when poor men cannot). For some organized groups, such as the Boko Haram in Nigeria, forced recruitment of woman is an important influence on this effect - forcibly recruited woman give potential recruits unique access to "free" brides. | Youth | Male | Nigeria, South Sudan, and Saudi Arabia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on young men becoming involved in organized group violence for political purposes, including terrorism, rebellion, intergroup aggression, raiding, and civil war. | Hudson, Valerie M, and Hilary Matfess. “In Plain Sight: The Neglected Linkage between Brideprice and Violent Conflict.” International security 42, no. 1 (2017): 7–40. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00289 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | A short quantitative analysis and three case studies analyzing how the brideprice market affects recruitment for violent groups and civil war. | One article is cited in support: Hudson, Valerie M, and Hilary Matfess. “In Plain Sight: The Neglected Linkage between Brideprice and Violent Conflict.” International security 42, no. 1 (2017): 7–40. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00289 |
| Wanting to join the military, even though the regular armed forces were fighting the armed group which is recruiting | Static risk factor | (Psychosocial) Past or Current Experience | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Military service | Besides demographics and increasing risk aversion, literature on sensation seeking also establishes that certain activities and preferences are more common among high sensation seekers—the preference for a military lifestyle for example. | One of the questions from the Fundación Ideas para la Paz (FIP) survey is “Did you want to serve in the military?” | A large majority of former paramilitaries (who fought against the guerrilla alongside the military) wanted to join the military: 79%. However, 58% of insurgents also wanted to join the military, even though the regular armed forces were their enemy on the battlefield. | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Colombia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | The statistical findings of the primary study which compares voluntary and forcible recruits - a survey with 1,485 Colombian ex-combatants from both insurgent and paramilitary groups between February 5, 2008 and May 31, 2008. Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 |
| Poverty | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Unspecified | The article says "Poverty alone cannot explain participation in such organized groups because the vast majority of poor people do not turn to violence. Rather, poverty and social marginalization must manifest themselves in particularly vexing ways for grievances to lead to such terrible violence." | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Youth | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on young men becoming involved in organized group violence for political purposes, including terrorism, rebellion, intergroup aggression, raiding, and civil war. | Hudson, Valerie M, and Hilary Matfess. “In Plain Sight: The Neglected Linkage between Brideprice and Violent Conflict.” International security 42, no. 1 (2017): 7–40. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00289 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | A short quantitative analysis and three case studies analyzing how the brideprice market affects recruitment for violent groups and civil war. | One article is cited: Krueger, Alan B, and Jitka Maleckova. “Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?” The Journal of economic perspectives 17, no. 4 (2003): 119–144. https://doi.org/10.1257/089533003772034925 |
| Poverty | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Poverty/Wealth | Macro-level evidence indicates that poorer countries and regions remain exposed to higher risk for conflict because poverty increases the attraction of financial compensation for participating in political violence. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Nigeria | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | One book and one article are cited in support: Collier, Paul. The bottom billion: Why the poorest countries are failing and what can be done about it. Oxford University Press, USA, 2008. Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4 (2004): 563–95. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064 |
| Poverty | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature is inconclusive | Poverty/Wealth | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment, Onset | Country | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | One study is cited which finds that poorer households have a higher likelihood of participating in and supporting an armed group. Justino, Patricia. Philip Verwimp, Patricia Justino, and Tilman Brück. “Poverty and Violent Conflict: A Micro-Level Perspective on the Causes and Duration of Warfare.” Journal of peace research 46, no. 3 (2009): 315–333. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343309102655 But, another study finds no relationship between poverty and participation in violence. Krueger, Alan B, and Jitka Maleckova. “Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?” The Journal of economic perspectives 17, no. 4 (2003): 119–144. https://doi.org/10.1257/089533003772034925 |
| Relative deprivation | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Relative deprivation | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Youth | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on young men becoming involved in organized group violence for political purposes, including terrorism, rebellion, intergroup aggression, raiding, and civil war. | Hudson, Valerie M, and Hilary Matfess. “In Plain Sight: The Neglected Linkage between Brideprice and Violent Conflict.” International security 42, no. 1 (2017): 7–40. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00289 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | A short quantitative analysis and three case studies analyzing how the brideprice market affects recruitment for violent groups and civil war. | One book is cited in support: Gurr, Ted Robert. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1970. |
| Natural resource wealth | Static risk factor | (Environmental) Resources | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Resource wealth/scarcity | Some scholars theorize that greed, rather than grievance, animates conflict entrepreneurs to rebel against governments when it is financially viable or beneficial to do so, thereby tying natural resource wealth to conflict. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment, Onset | Individual | Unspecified | Youth | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on young men becoming involved in organized group violence for political purposes, including terrorism, rebellion, intergroup aggression, raiding, and civil war. | Hudson, Valerie M, and Hilary Matfess. “In Plain Sight: The Neglected Linkage between Brideprice and Violent Conflict.” International security 42, no. 1 (2017): 7–40. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00289 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | A short quantitative analysis and three case studies analyzing how the brideprice market affects recruitment for violent groups and civil war. | One article is cited in support: Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4 (2004): 563–95. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064 |
| Peer-group pressure | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Social influence | In-group members are able to justify otherwise unacceptable actions through the benefits obtained by the group. This new sense of identity, in turn, incentivizes rebellious activity | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Youth | Male | Unspecified | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on young men becoming involved in organized group violence for political purposes, including terrorism, rebellion, intergroup aggression, raiding, and civil war. | Hudson, Valerie M, and Hilary Matfess. “In Plain Sight: The Neglected Linkage between Brideprice and Violent Conflict.” International security 42, no. 1 (2017): 7–40. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00289 | Academic | 2017 | Reference to one or several articles | A short quantitative analysis and three case studies analyzing how the brideprice market affects recruitment for violent groups and civil war. | Two articles are cited in support: Atran, Scott. Talking to the Enemy : Faith, Brotherhood, and the (Un)Making of Terrorists. 1st ed. New York: Ecco Press, 2010. Horgan, John. Walking Away from Terrorism : Accounts of Disengagement from Radical and Extremist Movements. London ; Routledge, 2009. |
| Preference for weapons, power or for what the group represented | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Status/Power/Significance | The allure of weapons, as shown by survey results from former group members, is related to thrill and adventure seeking, a sensation-seeking trait associated with joining a rebel groups | One of the questions from the Colombian survey from the National Planning Department is about why ex-combatants joined armed groups, and one of the responses is a “preference for weapons, power or for what the group represented.” | The DNP survey reports that 35% of interviewed ex-combatants joined because of a “preference for weapons, power or for what the group represented” (the third most important motivation after “lack of opportunities” and “for money”) | Recruitment | Individual | The DNP survey shows that this reason for joining diminishes with increasing age at joining, consistent with general findings about sensation seeking. | Does not specify | No differentiation | Colombia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One report is cited in support: Departamento Nacional de Planeación (DNP). Evaluación de Resultados de la Política de Reintegración. Bogotá: DNP, Econometría Consultores, 2010 |
| Having extremely short time horizons, and extremely high discount rates, giving greater weight to payoffs in the present than those in the future | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Personality Traits | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Decision-making skills | In “Telling the Difference" Gutiérrez Sanín argues under these conditions "a small annoyance can trigger weighty decisions." | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | This is more common in young people, as explained by one former rebel group interviewee: “Every day one gets more conscious of what you are doing. . . . [A]nd so one notices the risks, of course. But at the beginning, I think that a young person will not . . . will never notice the risks that [he/she] assumes, never. . . . A young [person] of that age . . . in my experience, thinks very little.” | Youth | No differentiation | Colombia | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on participation in violent armed groups, such as insurgents or militia groups, which the authors do not define further. | Nussio, Enzo. “The Role of Sensation Seeking in Violent Armed Group Participation.” Terrorism and political violence 32, no. 1 (2020): 1–19. DOI:10.1080/09546553.2017.1342633 | Academic | 2020 | Reference to one or several articles | A narrative review of the collective action paradigm and related literature on participation in violent armed groups. Additionally, the author establishes a personality-based theory of participation in armed groups which is supported by preliminary survey data from different violent armed groups in Colombia. The author supports these findings with an overview of the qualitative literature on Colombian armed groups. | One article is cited in support: Sanin, Francisco Gutierrez. “Telling the Difference: Guerrillas and Paramilitaries in the Colombian War.” Politics & society 36, no. 1 (2008): 3–34. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032329207312181 It it further supported by a number of articles, where authors observe similar dynamics among young recruits: Ribetti, Marcella. “The Unveiled Motivations of Violence in Intra-State Conflicts: The Colombian Guerrillas.” Small wars & insurgencies 18, no. 4 (2007): 699–720. https://doi.org/10.1080/09592310701778548 Arjona, Ana M., and Stathis Kalyvas. "Preliminary results of a survey of demobilized combatants in Colombia." Unpublished manuscript, Yale University (2006). |
| Political opposition groups with popular support | Static risk factor | (Political) Legitimacy of the State | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Political grievances/satisfaction | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Societal | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Some regions of El Salvador, Sri Lanka, and Mozambique | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | Four studies are referenced: De Silva, Daya. "The Use of Child Soldiers in War with Special Reference to Sri Lanka." Paediatrics and International Child Health 33 (2013): 273–280. https://doi.org/10.1179/2046905513Y.0000000095 Dickson-Gómez, Julia. "Growing Up in Guerrilla Camps: The Long-Term Impact of Being a Child Soldier in El Salvador’s Civil War." Ethos 30 (2002): 327–356. https://doi.org/10.1525/eth.2002.30.4.327 Santacruz, María Lorena, and Rubén Ernesto Arana. "Experiencias e Impacto Psicosocial en Niños y Niñas Soldado de la Guerra Civil de El Salvador [Experiences and Psychosocial Impact on Soldier Boys and Girls from the Civil War in El Salvador]." Biomedica 22 (2002): 383–397. West, Harry. "Girls with Guns: Narrating the Experience of War of FRELIMO’s Female Detachment." In Children and Youth on the Front Line: Ethnography, Armed Conflict and Displacement, edited by Jo Boyden and Joanna De Berry, 105–129. New York: Berghahn Books, 2004. |
| No prospect of accessing education, employment, or other opportunities | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation, (Psychosocial) Education | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment, (Lack of) access to education | In countries hit by conflict, children are often deprived of access to basic needs and joining an armed group increases access to these resources. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Individual | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | Sri Lanka | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | One study is referenced in the introduction: De Silva, Daya. "The Use of Child Soldiers in War with Special Reference to Sri Lanka." Paediatrics and International Child Health 33 (2013): 273–280. https://doi.org/10.1179/2046905513Y.0000000095 |
| Family and community ideological indoctrination | Dynamic risk factor | (Psychosocial) Values and Beliefs, (Psychosocial) Belonging | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature provides support for the risk/protective factor | Ideology, Social influence | In Hoffman's (2010) study it was considered a moral code for them to fight for a higher cause and defend their community. Hoffmann (2010), in his study of this group, argued that for them, getting involved in the conflict was the “means to liberate the DRC nation–state from foreign military aggression which they believed threatened their way of life, if not their physical survival,” (p. 355). And in de Silva's (2013) study in Sri Lanka, children were heavily indoctrinated with the idea of dying/killing for the sake of their country and deaths were glorified as martyrdom. | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment | Relational | Unspecified | Children | No differentiation | de Silva (2013); Sri Lanka Hoffman (2010); Congo | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Intrastate armed conflict (separatist or territorial), Intrastate armed conflict (governmental) | This article focuses on voluntary recruitment of youth into armed groups, specifically the process by which children (persons under the age of 18) joined armed groups during a decade-long (1996–2006) civil war known as the People’s War in Nepal. | Kohrt, Brandon A., et al. "Recruitment of Child Soldiers in Nepal: Mental Health Status and Risk Factors for Voluntary Participation of Youth in Armed Groups." Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 22, no. 3 (2016): 208. https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000170 | Academic | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Single study, with a narrative literature review in the introduction; The 258 participants in the quantitative study were former child soldiers who returned home from the Maoist Army in Nepal | Two studies are referenced: De Silva, Daya. "The Use of Child Soldiers in War with Special Reference to Sri Lanka." Paediatrics and International Child Health 33 (2013): 273–280. https://doi.org/10.1179/2046905513Y.0000000095 Hoffmann, Kasper. "The Ethics of Child-Soldiering in the Congo." Young 18 (2010): 339–358. https://doi.org/10.1177/110330881001800306 |
| Unemployment | Dynamic risk factor | (Economic) Situation | Intrastate conflict, Organized violent extremism/terrorism | Literature does not provide support for the risk/protective factor | Employment/Unemployment | Unspecified | Unspecified | Unspecified | Recruitment, Onset | Societal | Unspecified | Does not specify | No differentiation | Berman et al (2009); Iraq and the Philippines | Violent extremism/terrorism (organized groups), Violent extremism/terrorism (generic), Intrastate armed conflict (generic) | This article focuses on youth inolvement with Boko Haram an armed group operating in Nigeria's northeast. | Mercy Corps "Motivations and empty promises: Voices of former Boko Haram combatants and Nigerian youth." (2016). https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/boko-haram-nigerian | Grey literature | 2016 | Reference to one or several articles | Interviews with 47 people who had formerly participated in Boko Haram as youth, 46 family members and friends of current and former members of Boko Haram, 26 youth who resisted voluntary or forced participation in Boko Haram, and 26 community leaders in the sampled areas. | Berman, et al, found a negative relationship between unemployment and violent attacks against the government in Iraq and the Philippines. Blattman and Ralston found that in some conflict settings, successful employment-generating programs did somewhat reduce crime or violence, when that violence was materially motivated; however, this did not apply to many types of rioting, rebellion, and terrorism, where factors other than material incentives drove recruitment. Berman, Eli, Michael Callen, Joseph H Felter, and Jacob N Shapiro. “Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Iraq and the Philippines.” NBER Working Paper Series (2009): w15547. https://doi.org/10.3386/w15547 Blattman, Christopher, and Laura Ralston. "Generating employment in poor and fragile states: Evidence from labor market and entrepreneurship programs." http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2622220 |
Types of Armed Violence Data Visualizations
See the data visualizations of risk and protective factors by types of violence:
Practical Applications
- Bridging the gap between academic research and policy development: Providing support at national and local levels, including to develop national prevention strategies, and at the international level—including at the United Nations Peacebuilding Commission (PBC).
- Enhancing diagnostics for smarter prevention: This tool can be used by practitioners to conduct context-specific analyses. By applying it in diverse settings, practitioners can better identify and address the most relevant risk and protective factors, resulting in more targeted, evidence-based, and impactful interventions.
- Strengthening early warning for proactive prevention: Enhance national and local early warning systems and violence observatories to track the underlying causes of violence—not just its early signs—enabling more proactive and upstream prevention efforts.
- Uncovering patterns for smarter prevention: Identify the shared and distinct drivers of violent extremism/terrorism and intra-state conflict to design more cost-effective and targeted prevention strategies.
- Measuring impact, strengthening prevention: Evaluate the effectiveness of prevention programs by analyzing how they lower risk factors and strengthen protective factors, ensuring smarter, evidence-based interventions.
- Smarter investments, stronger impact: Decision-makers are more likely to invest when they see tangible returns. By adopting an evidence-based approach, we can enhance effectiveness, maximize impact, and build trust in these critical efforts—ultimately increasing incentives for investment.
Why is adopting an evidence-based approach key to addressing factors that are actually associated with violence? Learn more →
Who Is This Tool For?
National/Local decision-makers and practitioners can use the tool to assess and identify what risk and protective factors are relevant to their contexts.
United Nations and International Financial Institutions (IFIs) can assist national and local stakeholders in implementing effective violence prevention strategies and programs.
Member states can engage in policy discussions on the drivers and enablers of violence, as well as strategies to support national actors in addressing them, particularly during meetings of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC).
Donors can leverage the tool to inform decisions on funding and supporting high-impact, evidence-based projects.
This tool is not a predictive model, one-size-fits-all solution, nor in its final form. We hope to keep adding new resources over time. It is designed to support users in conducting a context-specific analysis of risk and protective factors, rather than replacing it.
Dive Deeper Into the Tool
Meet the Team
This resource was developed by experts at the Center on International Cooperation in the Prevention, Peacebuilding, and Protracted Crisis program. Support was also provided by graduate student researchers at New York University.
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Céline Monnier
Senior Program Officer, Prevention-Peacebuilding-Protracted Crises -
Joanne Richards
Visiting Scholar, Prevention-Peacebuilding-Protracted Crises -
Marta Bautista Forcada
Program Officer, Prevention-Peacebuilding-Protracted Crises -
Owen Brady
Graduate Student Researcher, Prevention-Peacebuilding-Protracted Crises
Funders
The development of this resource was generously funded by the government of the United Kingdom.
With further funding contributions from the government of Norway.
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