Data for Peace Conference 2023 Program
Data for Peace Conference 2023 • Day 4
Time (ET) | Thursday October 19 |
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| 08:00 – 09:00 Panel Discussion | Session 1: Data and Analysis for Frontline Conflict, Atrocity Prevention and Response There is a notable surge in the collection, analysis, and utilization of a seemingly endless amount of information that pertains to the precipitation, escalation, and mitigation of violence. Yet, despite continued efforts to gather data for conflict and atrocity early warning systems, significant data gaps persist, hindering the ability of organizations to detect and/or respond to early warning signs within the communities they serve. There remains a significant gap between the indicators and analytic methods used by high-income countries and academic communities and those utilized by frontline practitioners. This panel convenes practitioners from organizations that operationalize conflict early warning systems to discuss current data collection methods, analytics, and the lingering gaps and challenges that persist. Organizer: Harvard Humanitarian Initiative |
| 09:15 – 09:45 Short Presentation https://nyu.zoom.us/j/94924791616?pwd=ZTIveU9sZHRkdUgybk5IUFEyRjNSdz09 Meeting ID: 949 2479 1616 Passcode: 959525 | Session 2: Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model Policy makers engaged in preventative action need to navigate the trade-off between being too active (and thus wasting resources on crises that never materialize), and not being active enough (and thus acting too late). We have developed a policy evaluation tool to guide policy-makers that builds on our existing conflict forecast. By examining the dynamics of conflict in the past with a Hidden Markov Model, we distill the cycle of peace and conflict into a spectrum of 12 risk stages that represent the underlying severity of the situation in a given country. This allows us to simulate policies with realistically imprecise forecasts, typical conflict dynamics, realistic future damages, various levels of policy effectiveness and policy costs. Our approach shows that, for a large range of assumptions on the effectiveness and costs of policies, interventions in high risk situations yield the highest benefit per cost ratio. These ratios are extremely large, hinting at the huge economic and humanitarian benefits of early action. Organizer: Conflictforecast Speakers Hannes Mueller Margherita Philipp |
| 10:00 – 11:00 Panel Discussion | Session 3: INFORM WARNING: Quantified, multi-hazard information to support anticipatory action Organizer: UN OCHA Speakers: Andrew Thow, Coordinator, INFORM UNOCHA Sun-joo Lee, Data science specialist, UNDP |
| 11:15 – 11:45 Short Presentation | Session 4: How to Change the World from Space The use of geospatial data is a game-changer in conflict prevention, peacemaking, and peacebuilding efforts. It serves multiple critical purposes, from detecting water shortages via satellite imagery to address climate change challenges, to monitoring ceasefires and facilitating humanitarian analyses. This panel discussion will bring together practitioners and scholars to explore emerging trends and potential innovations in utilizing geospatial data for conflict resolution and peace efforts. The panel will showcase practical examples of geospatial data in the peace and security context, delve into details on technical advancements, and share best practices in leveraging open-source earth observation data for peace and conflict-related initiatives. Organizer: UN DPPA Speakers Rawaa Khalid, Geospatial consultant for the UN in Iraq Trevor Skaggs, Climate Resilience and Disaster Response Lead at Element 84 Einar Bjørgo, Director of the United Nations Satellite Centre (UNOSAT) Andrew Zolli,Chief Impact Officer at Planet Angelina Savchuk, Information Manager, 510, Netherlands Red Cross Moderator: Martin Waehlisch, Team Leader, UN DPPA |
| 12:00 – 12:30 Short Presentation | Session 5: Climate and Migration in East and the Horn of Africa: A spatial analysis of migrants' flow data The drivers of human displacement are becoming increasingly complex, ranging from conflict to economic insecurity, heightened mobility, and, of escalating importance, climate change. In an effort to understand the complex variables that influence migration, the authors, in collaboration with International Organization for Migration in the East and Horn of Africa, spatially analyzed data from the region’s Displacement Tracking Matrix. Subsequently, open source environmental and historical disaster and conflict datasets were used to explore the relationships between these variables. This presentation will summarize the outcomes of these analyses, discuss challenges and limitations, and provide insight into how valuable a spatial methods tool can be in understanding the intersection of climate, conflict, and migration. Organizer: Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Humanitarian Geoanalytics Program Speaker: Erica L Nelson, MD, PhM, MAS, Co-Director, Humanitarian Geoanalytics Program |
| 12:45 – 13:45 Panel Discussion | Session 6: Listening for Peace: Local feedback loops and peacebuilding success Several Scholars of peacebuilding argue that the effectiveness of external peacebuilding interventions is at least partly determined by local perceptions about their legitimacy, and the integration of this perceptual data into decision-making. These findings are relevant to the implementation of the Global Fragility Act, UN peacekeeping missions, and other donor-sponsored conflict stabilization initiatives. This panel will explore ideas to operationalize this method of data collection and analytics, and fits into two conference themes: Data Gaps/Needs and Data for Peace at the UN. The panel brings together scholars and practitioners who have studied and implemented these methods in fragile and conflict contexts. Organizer: Center for Global Development and US State Department's Office of Foreign Assistance Speakers: Dr. Susanna Campbell, Associate Professor, School of International Service, American University and Director, Research on International Policy Implementation Lab (RIPIL) Bushra Hassan, MEL Advisor, UN Peacebuilding Support Office Ruth Rhoads Allen, President, CDA Collaborative Learning Projects Dr. Patrick Vinck, Assistant Professor, Harvard University and Director, Peace and Human Rights Data program Moderator: Dr. Michelle Sieff, Evidence in Policy Fellow from the Center for Global Development detailed to the State Department’s Office of Foreign Assistance |
| 17:00 – 18:00 Panel Discussion | Session 7: Identifying Patterns in Complex and Fragmented Conflict Landscapes: Papua New Guinea Many countries are experiencing increasingly complex and fragmented conflicts. Poor documentation and over-simplification of community grievances along ethnic, tribal, clan, or identity lines often contribute to a sense of randomness and unpredictability in violence. Understanding patterns of violence can not only contribute to early warning systems that identify emerging threats before they escalate, but help local leaders identify more targeted and effective intervention points. Analytical methods play a pivotal role in comprehending patterns of conflict, yet determining the most suitable approach is essential. This panel explores analytical techniques, data collection strategies, replicability of analysis, and the dangers of extrapolating findings across different groups, looking at the case of Papua New Guinea. While Papua New Guinea’s highly localized, enduring, and fragmented fighting has posed particular challenges to data collection and analysis, panelists will discuss innovative analytic methodologies that are being used to clarify our understanding of violence. Organizer: US Department of State, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations Speakers Laura Sorica, Research Manager, Armed Conflict and Location Event Data's (ACLED) East Asia Pacific desk William Kipongi, Research Officer, National Security and International Relations Research Program at the Papua New Guinea (PNG) National Research Institute Dr. Miranda Forsyth, Professor, School of Regulation and Global Governance, College of Asia and Pacific, Australian National University Dr. Luke Condra, Associate Professor, Public and International Affairs Program Director, University of Pittsburgh |
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