Wednesday October 18
|08:00 – 09:00|
Meeting ID: 967 1872 7978
|Session 1: Predicting Conflict and Displacement for Anticipatory Action
Displacement continues to increase at a global scale and increasingly happening in complex, multi-crisis settings leading to more complex and deeper humanitarian needs. Responding to vulnerabilities before disaster strikes is crucial, but anticipatory action is contingent on the ability to accurately forecast what will happen in the future. Forecasting and contingency planning is not new in the humanitarian sector, where scenario-building continues to be an exercise conducted in most humanitarian operations to strategically plan for coming events. But the accuracy of these exercises remains limited. To address this challenge, humanitarian actors are increasingly using AI models to predict conflict and displacement, and pilots are now being conducted to use these models for anticipatory action responses.
These new tools open up a wide range of opportunities but also have limitations and challenges, especially when using for anticipatory action responses. This session will explore these aspects in more detail including a variety of viewpoints and practical examples from field tests in Burkina Faso and South Sudan.
Organizer: Danish Refugee Council
Seth Caldwell, Data Scientist, Predictive Analytics Team, OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data
Isabelle Arradon, Director of Research, International Crisis Group
Sofia Kyriazi, AI Engineer, UNHCR
Katayoun Kishi, Head of Data Science, ACLED
Moderator: Alexander Kjærum, Global Advisor, Danish Refugee Council
|09:15 – 09:45 |
Meeting ID: 919 5302 5686
|Session 2: A Multi-Risk, AI, and Simulation-Based Scenario Planning Platform for Anticipatory Action
In light of recent events in Sudan, it's clear that traditional early warning systems have fallen short, complicating effective intervention and resource allocation. Our Multi-Risk Scenario Planning Platform is a first-of-its-kind that addresses these challenges by integrating state-of-the-art agent-based and systems dynamics modeling, AI-generated narratives, and real-time analytics for anticipatory action. Aligned with OCHA's latest guidelines, the platform shifts focus from static classification models to dynamic risk prediction. It empowers organizations to proactively prepare for volatile situations by simulating multiple scenarios and offering real-time metrics for improved resource allocation and enables dynamic policy testing. This fundamentally transforms the landscape of data-driven decision-making in conflict scenarios. To illustrate, our platform precisely simulated tribal sentiments and recent escalating conflicts in Deir ez-Zor, Syria. This tool allows humanitarian decision-makers to select or define scenarios based on real-world events, swiftly assess overall conflict risks, and compare varying strategies, thus effectively guiding policy decisions
Organizer: Kiangle Unipessoal LDA
Ali Rebaie, AI Phenomenologist & Anthropologist, Kiangle AI, Portugal
Harald Fiedler, Managing Director, Cavorit, Germany
|10:00 – 10:30 |
Meeting ID: 962 1688 7794
|Session 3: Leveraging OSINT for Peace: Monitoring small arms proliferation in Afghanistan using social media
The Small Arms Survey is actively engaged in data-driven innovations for peacebuilding and prevention efforts. One of our notable projects in this space is the project "Preventing Arms Proliferation from, within, and to Afghanistan." This project aims, among other objectives, at generating enhanced knowledge to enhance the knowledge of key actors involved in monitoring arms from Afghanistan, such as UNAMA, UNODC, OSCE, Halo Trust, etc.
As part of the Afghanistan Project, the Small Arms Survey has developed the Small Arms and Light Weapons Social Media Dashboard, leveraging social media content to support the recognition of US and NATO weapons and ammunition that may originate from the Afghan National Security Forces and proliferate within Afghanistan and neighboring countries. The data used in the dashboard is sourced from selected publicly available accounts on Twitter, collected from January 2021 and continuously ongoing. This dashboard enables stakeholders to visualize tweets (text, picture, video) according to different arms and gender-related keywords and geographic distribution to identify trends in the country and neighboring regions. An automated section allows for capture of the most mentioned weapons, and armed groups associated with weapons. Automatic updates are performed every four hours, ensuring that the data presented in the dashboard remains current and useful for peacebuilding and prevention efforts.
Organizer: Small Arms Survey, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies
Gianluca Boo, Senior Data Expert, Small Arms Survey, (Geneva Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies)
Manon Blancafort, Project Assistant, Small Arms Survey, (Geneva Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies)
|10:45 – 11:15 |
Meeting ID: 968 9464 2436
|Session 4: Introducing the UCDP Conflict Issue Data (CID)
Conflict issues hold a privileged position in all theoretical explanations of the occurrence, dynamics, and resolution of civil wars, yet there has been no systematic data on conflict issues. Until now. In this session we introduce the UCDP Conflict Issue Data (CID). CID is a four-tier time-variant global dyad-issue-year dataset contains 14 832 conflict issues—divided, at the most disaggregated level, into 122 sub-categories—raised by armed non-state groups involved in intrastate armed conflict in 1989-2017. CID uses a comprehensive approach that allows for groups to hold numerous and simultaneous conflict issues while also accounting for the fact that conflict issues may vary over time. The CID dataset encompasses conflict issues raised across the full civil war cycle divided into three clusters: Conflict Goal issues, Conflict Dynamics issues, and Conflict Resolution issues. CID data also include actor characteristics concerning ideology, ethnic-group membership, religious affiliation, and geographical scope of the stated demands, for all included groups. CID thus opens up wide swathe of opportunities for new research and evaluation of conventional wisdom.
Organizer: Uppsala Conflict Data Program
Magnus Öberg, Director of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
Johan Brosché, Associate Professor, of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
|11:30 – 12:00|
Meeting ID: 987 0430 8687
|Session 5: Leveraging Maskani as Early Warning Early Response System in Digital Peacebuilding – Kenya
Maskani uses digital peacebuilding strategies to examine how algorithms power offline polarizing debates on conflict pressure points online around elections in Kenya and uses human intervention online (micro-influencers) to depolarise conversations and dialogue.
Organizer: The Peacemaker Corps Foundation Kenya
Speaker: Fredrick Ogenga, The Peacemaker Corps Foundation Kenya
|12:15 – 12:45 |
Meeting ID: 950 0724 8280
|Session 6: Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) for Conflict Mapping and Monitoring
Trustworthy AI governance is pivotal in addressing global peacekeeping challenges. It enhances conflict resolution through impartial AI systems, detects early warning signs, optimizes peacekeeping operations, and monitors arms control. AI aids in humanitarian aid distribution, cybersecurity, and ethical decision-making in defense. Governance ensures responsible AI use, transparency, and accountability. It promotes international cooperation and ethical AI in defense and security, making it an indispensable tool for maintaining global peace.
Organizer: European Commission Joint Research Centre - Disaster Risk Management Unit (E1)
Marzia Santini, Project Leader, European Commission
Ludovica de Girolamo, Conflict and GIS analyst, consultant for the European Commission (Seidor Consulting)
Ana Maria Duta, Conflict and GIS analyst, consultant for the European Commission (Engineering)
Ivano Caravaggi, Conflict and GIS analyst, consultant for the European Commission (Fincons)
Azzurra Lentini, Project Officer, European Commission
|13:30 – 14:00 |
Meeting ID: 937 0006 2378
|Session 7: Big and Thick Data for Climate Security
Climate security and environmental peacebuilding analysis have a small data problem. While big data can read past patterns and predict future impacts from climate and conflict based on predictive analytics and anticipatory action analysis, conflict data is just too granular, too qualitative. This presentation therefore proposes a "big data, thick data" approach to climate security based on machine learning and systems thinking.
Organizer: CDA Collaborative
Speaker: Dr. Siad Darwish, CDA Collaborative
|14:15 – 15:15 |
Meeting ID: 990 1149 3933
|Session 8: Virtual Reality “VR for Good” at the United Nations
The United Nations has taken a groundbreaking approach to invoke empathy and inspire action by harnessing the power of Virtual Reality (VR) technology. Through immersive experiences, the UN aims to transport viewers to the frontlines of global issues, providing a firsthand encounter with the challenges faced by marginalized communities worldwide. By donning VR headsets, individuals can step into the shoes of refugees fleeing conflict zones, witness the devastating effects of natural disasters, or explore the daily struggles of those living in extreme poverty. These emotionally charged encounters evoke a sense of empathy that traditional media formats often struggle to achieve. As a result, VR serves as a powerful tool for the UN to connect people on a personal level, compelling them to take meaningful action and advocate for positive change. This innovative approach to storytelling has the potential to revolutionize the way the world perceives and addresses pressing global issues, forging a path toward a more compassionate and empathetic global community. Join us for inspirational new developments and be inspired to join the action.
Organizer: Global Mediation Team
Raju Bhatt, CEO Global Mediation Team and VRAR Association “VR for Good”
Julie A. Gregory, Protecting Civilians and Human Security at The Stimson Center & Author of “Virtual Reality and the Future of Peacemaking”
Martin Waehlisch, Leader United Nations DPPA’s Innovation Cell
Daanish Masood Alavi, Technologist United Nations DPPA’s Innovation Cell
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